SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply

The Sherwin-Williams Company vs Tractor Supply Company

WatchlistSHW / TSCOPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($81B vs $17B) with SEC SIC 5200 (Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.33 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.03 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 111.50 (needs <= 63)

Business leadership

SHW is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	SHW	TSCO	Larger
2025	$23.6B	$15.5B	SHW
2024	$23.1B	$14.9B	SHW
2023	$23.1B	$14.6B	SHW
2022	$22.1B	$14.2B	SHW
2021	$19.9B	$12.7B	SHW
2020	$18.4B	$10.6B	SHW

SHW led in every year with figures for both. Market value: SHW $80.5B, TSCO $17.1B.

Stock leadership

SHW is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

SHW leads TSCO by 0.87 standard deviations: +21.3% over its usual price ratio. 1 lead switch in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
SHW	+8.9%	+2.4%	+2.1%
TSCO	+12.0%	-9.0%	-36.6%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.33 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.03 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Fail: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 111.50 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company TSCO Tractor Supply CompanyPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: SHW relative to TSCO, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: SHW ahead; below 0: TSCO ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	SHW index	TSCO index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	89.00	58.35	+0.87	SHW ahead
2026-10-21	86.84	54.92	+1.04	SHW ahead
2026-10-20	86.52	55.29	+1.00	SHW ahead
2026-10-19	85.39	55.12	+0.96	SHW ahead
2026-10-16	86.31	55.71	+0.97	SHW ahead
2026-10-15	86.75	56.06	+0.97	SHW ahead
2026-10-14	83.57	55.00	+0.90	SHW ahead
2026-10-13	83.45	56.61	+0.77	SHW ahead
2026-10-12	82.45	56.20	+0.75	SHW ahead
2026-10-09	82.23	56.62	+0.71	SHW ahead
2026-10-08	82.66	56.25	+0.77	SHW ahead
2026-10-07	81.11	54.63	+0.82	SHW ahead
2026-10-06	82.70	54.25	+0.95	SHW ahead
2026-10-05	82.00	52.79	+1.04	SHW ahead
2026-10-02	82.27	52.23	+1.11	SHW ahead
2026-10-01	82.60	53.31	+1.05	SHW ahead
2026-09-30	83.24	52.57	+1.15	SHW ahead
2026-09-29	85.09	52.94	+1.23	SHW ahead
2026-09-28	85.69	53.88	+1.19	SHW ahead
2026-09-25	84.74	54.21	+1.12	SHW ahead
2026-09-24	82.50	52.82	+1.13	SHW ahead
2026-09-23	84.06	54.25	+1.10	SHW ahead
2026-09-22	84.55	55.17	+1.06	SHW ahead
2026-09-21	82.74	54.31	+1.04	SHW ahead
2026-09-18	82.59	54.11	+1.06	SHW ahead
2026-09-17	82.64	55.14	+0.99	SHW ahead
2026-09-16	82.77	55.07	+1.01	SHW ahead
2026-09-15	83.23	55.49	+1.00	SHW ahead
2026-09-14	83.56	56.83	+0.92	SHW ahead
2026-09-11	83.25	55.46	+1.02	SHW ahead
2026-09-10	81.74	56.31	+0.88	SHW ahead
2026-09-09	82.56	57.12	+0.87	SHW ahead
2026-09-08	83.97	59.29	+0.79	SHW ahead
2026-09-04	85.93	58.78	+0.94	SHW ahead
2026-09-03	85.55	58.13	+0.97	SHW ahead
2026-09-02	85.29	58.56	+0.93	SHW ahead
2026-09-01	84.96	58.31	+0.94	SHW ahead
2026-08-31	87.24	58.63	+1.04	SHW ahead
2026-08-28	88.80	58.33	+1.15	SHW ahead
2026-08-27	88.89	58.30	+1.17	SHW ahead
2026-08-26	89.78	58.82	+1.18	SHW ahead
2026-08-25	90.24	59.44	+1.17	SHW ahead
2026-08-24	89.28	60.35	+1.06	SHW ahead
2026-08-21	89.24	58.77	+1.19	SHW ahead
2026-08-20	89.33	58.88	+1.19	SHW ahead
2026-08-19	91.05	59.54	+1.24	SHW ahead
2026-08-18	88.90	58.33	+1.23	SHW ahead
2026-08-17	90.11	58.26	+1.31	SHW ahead
2026-08-14	92.47	60.19	+1.29	SHW ahead
2026-08-13	93.10	60.77	+1.29	SHW ahead
2026-08-12	92.75	61.20	+1.25	SHW ahead
2026-08-11	93.84	59.29	+1.45	SHW ahead
2026-08-10	93.40	58.16	+1.53	SHW ahead
2026-08-07	95.20	58.06	+1.64	SHW ahead
2026-08-06	93.58	57.27	+1.64	SHW ahead
2026-08-05	95.19	56.13	+1.83	SHW ahead
2026-08-04	93.10	55.64	+1.78	SHW ahead
2026-08-03	91.21	53.94	+1.85	SHW ahead
2026-07-31	87.77	51.69	+1.89	SHW ahead
2026-07-30	88.79	50.75	+2.05	SHW ahead
2026-07-29	88.55	52.08	+1.94	SHW ahead
2026-07-28	91.22	52.85	+2.04	SHW ahead
2026-07-27	84.27	53.42	+1.64	SHW ahead
2026-07-24	81.76	52.11	+1.63	SHW ahead
2026-07-23	79.96	50.94	+1.65	SHW ahead
2026-07-22	82.37	49.32	+1.96	SHW ahead
2026-07-21	82.00	49.80	+1.91	SHW ahead
2026-07-20	83.32	50.90	+1.91	SHW ahead
2026-07-17	85.31	51.26	+2.01	SHW ahead
2026-07-16	87.07	52.10	+2.05	SHW ahead
2026-07-15	85.56	50.69	+2.13	SHW ahead
2026-07-14	84.59	51.32	+2.04	SHW ahead
2026-07-13	84.71	50.80	+2.12	SHW ahead
2026-07-10	86.00	51.12	+2.20	SHW ahead
2026-07-09	85.50	50.60	+2.25	SHW ahead
2026-07-08	85.12	49.69	+2.35	SHW ahead
2026-07-07	88.13	51.12	+2.43	SHW ahead
2026-07-06	89.90	50.77	+2.61	SHW ahead
2026-07-02	90.76	53.36	+2.44	SHW ahead
2026-07-01	89.11	54.20	+2.29	SHW ahead
2026-06-30	88.66	53.10	+2.41	SHW ahead
2026-06-29	88.65	52.42	+2.52	SHW ahead
2026-06-26	88.60	52.43	+2.56	SHW ahead
2026-06-25	87.31	51.66	+2.61	SHW ahead
2026-06-24	85.78	50.50	+2.68	SHW ahead
2026-06-23	83.14	49.86	+2.63	SHW ahead
2026-06-22	81.60	50.08	+2.54	SHW ahead
2026-06-18	82.60	50.80	+2.57	SHW ahead
2026-06-17	80.80	49.98	+2.58	SHW ahead
2026-06-16	83.03	50.75	+2.70	SHW ahead
2026-06-15	82.46	51.88	+2.57	SHW ahead
2026-06-12	81.70	52.50	+2.48	SHW ahead
2026-06-11	81.60	52.52	+2.51	SHW ahead
2026-06-10	78.25	51.69	+2.38	SHW ahead
2026-06-09	79.96	50.33	+2.74	SHW ahead
2026-06-08	77.13	50.64	+2.51	SHW ahead
2026-06-05	78.61	50.03	+2.75	SHW ahead
2026-06-04	77.27	49.34	+2.78	SHW ahead
2026-06-03	76.34	48.96	+2.80	SHW ahead
2026-06-02	75.45	50.42	+2.56	SHW ahead
2026-06-01	75.92	53.39	+2.24	SHW ahead
2026-05-29	78.24	52.97	+2.54	SHW ahead
2026-05-28	78.57	52.70	+2.65	SHW ahead
2026-05-27	79.82	51.53	+2.98	SHW ahead
2026-05-26	80.14	50.06	+3.30	SHW ahead
2026-05-22	79.59	53.12	+2.86	SHW ahead
2026-05-21	79.65	53.21	+2.91	SHW ahead
2026-05-20	79.23	53.24	+2.93	SHW ahead
2026-05-19	77.00	52.32	+2.90	SHW ahead
2026-05-18	77.96	53.29	+2.91	SHW ahead
2026-05-15	77.27	51.36	+3.21	SHW ahead
2026-05-14	79.61	51.22	+3.57	SHW ahead
2026-05-13	78.88	50.15	+3.79	SHW ahead
2026-05-12	80.23	51.39	+3.84	SHW ahead
2026-05-11	80.52	50.82	+4.12	SHW ahead
2026-05-08	81.58	51.49	+4.28	SHW ahead
2026-05-07	82.45	53.32	+4.20	SHW ahead
2026-05-06	83.33	54.65	+4.22	SHW ahead
2026-05-05	80.46	54.90	+3.94	SHW ahead
2026-05-04	79.95	54.28	+4.13	SHW ahead
2026-05-01	81.88	56.83	+4.03	SHW ahead
2026-04-30	82.81	58.97	+3.87	SHW ahead
2026-04-29	81.84	58.41	+3.97	SHW ahead
2026-04-28	83.50	59.79	+4.08	SHW ahead
2026-04-27	86.54	59.93	+4.68	SHW ahead
2026-04-24	86.96	61.72	+4.57	SHW ahead
2026-04-23	86.95	64.13	+4.22	SHW ahead
2026-04-22	86.30	65.45	+3.98	SHW ahead
2026-04-21	86.16	66.48	+3.86	SHW ahead
2026-04-20	88.56	75.28	+2.51	SHW ahead
2026-04-17	88.98	75.62	+2.55	SHW ahead
2026-04-16	85.83	74.98	+2.18	SHW ahead
2026-04-15	84.67	75.18	+1.96	SHW ahead
2026-04-14	85.90	75.63	+2.11	SHW ahead
2026-04-13	86.10	76.34	+2.03	SHW ahead
2026-04-10	86.55	75.65	+2.27	SHW ahead
2026-04-09	86.45	76.67	+2.07	SHW ahead
2026-04-08	86.43	76.07	+2.23	SHW ahead
2026-04-07	80.84	73.31	+1.78	SHW ahead
2026-04-06	81.47	76.25	+1.29	SHW ahead
2026-04-02	81.88	73.62	+1.95	SHW ahead
2026-04-01	83.87	74.81	+2.10	SHW ahead
2026-03-31	82.54	76.10	+1.58	SHW ahead
2026-03-30	81.34	76.29	+1.32	SHW ahead
2026-03-27	81.21	75.38	+1.50	SHW ahead
2026-03-26	82.28	77.09	+1.36	SHW ahead
2026-03-25	82.90	77.21	+1.47	SHW ahead
2026-03-24	80.78	76.42	+1.22	SHW ahead
2026-03-23	80.84	76.73	+1.17	SHW ahead
2026-03-20	78.16	76.89	+0.59	SHW ahead
2026-03-19	79.92	77.58	+0.81	SHW ahead
2026-03-18	80.37	77.20	+0.99	SHW ahead
2026-03-17	82.58	79.88	+0.87	SHW ahead
2026-03-16	83.10	81.95	+0.56	SHW ahead
2026-03-13	82.34	79.36	+0.94	SHW ahead
2026-03-12	81.81	80.81	+0.53	SHW ahead
2026-03-11	83.10	83.11	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2026-03-10	85.06	84.57	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-03-09	85.85	85.13	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-03-06	84.94	84.27	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-03-05	86.38	84.86	+0.63	SHW ahead
2026-03-04	89.52	84.99	+1.20	SHW ahead
2026-03-03	89.82	86.69	+0.93	SHW ahead
2026-03-02	91.69	87.83	+1.06	SHW ahead
2026-02-27	93.36	87.09	+1.52	SHW ahead
2026-02-26	92.83	85.98	+1.65	SHW ahead
2026-02-25	91.99	86.97	+1.32	SHW ahead
2026-02-24	93.92	89.49	+1.19	SHW ahead
2026-02-23	93.80	90.53	+0.98	SHW ahead
2026-02-20	92.86	88.97	+1.12	SHW ahead
2026-02-19	92.08	87.29	+1.31	SHW ahead
2026-02-18	94.18	88.27	+1.52	SHW ahead
2026-02-17	94.74	88.52	+1.58	SHW ahead
2026-02-13	94.99	92.45	+0.89	SHW ahead
2026-02-12	95.94	91.41	+1.26	SHW ahead
2026-02-11	94.49	91.61	+0.96	SHW ahead
2026-02-10	93.89	90.80	+1.01	SHW ahead
2026-02-09	92.85	90.35	+0.90	SHW ahead
2026-02-06	93.21	93.42	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-02-05	92.97	91.53	+0.69	SHW ahead
2026-02-04	94.99	92.87	+0.81	SHW ahead
2026-02-03	92.60	89.83	+0.95	SHW ahead
2026-02-02	91.76	89.01	+0.95	SHW ahead
2026-01-30	91.32	85.48	+1.57	SHW ahead
2026-01-29	91.30	85.61	+1.56	SHW ahead
2026-01-28	90.02	92.63	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2026-01-27	89.11	93.63	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2026-01-26	89.69	93.34	-0.24	near the usual relationship
2026-01-23	89.74	91.88	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2026-01-22	90.28	89.71	+0.56	SHW ahead
2026-01-21	91.75	89.33	+0.91	SHW ahead
2026-01-20	89.34	85.63	+1.19	SHW ahead
2026-01-16	92.14	85.70	+1.73	SHW ahead
2026-01-15	91.70	85.23	+1.76	SHW ahead
2026-01-14	91.24	85.95	+1.53	SHW ahead
2026-01-13	91.66	86.96	+1.42	SHW ahead
2026-01-12	92.09	85.14	+1.90	SHW ahead
2026-01-09	90.97	86.54	+1.40	SHW ahead
2026-01-08	87.81	86.35	+0.82	SHW ahead
2026-01-07	85.34	83.81	+0.84	SHW ahead
2026-01-06	87.57	84.52	+1.16	SHW ahead
2026-01-05	85.54	83.71	+0.92	SHW ahead
2026-01-02	84.42	85.39	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-12-31	83.44	84.02	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-12-30	83.98	84.60	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-12-29	83.74	85.36	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-12-26	83.80	86.33	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-12-24	83.78	86.77	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-12-23	83.44	85.81	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-12-22	83.39	86.89	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-12-19	82.62	86.35	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2025-12-18	83.78	87.91	-0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-12-17	84.44	89.86	-0.60	TSCO ahead
2025-12-16	84.42	88.43	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-12-15	84.57	88.92	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-12-12	84.64	87.31	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-12-11	84.79	87.04	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-12-10	84.01	88.80	-0.50	TSCO ahead
2025-12-09	82.69	87.95	-0.61	TSCO ahead
2025-12-08	84.23	89.61	-0.62	TSCO ahead
2025-12-05	85.77	90.85	-0.55	TSCO ahead
2025-12-04	86.36	91.36	-0.54	TSCO ahead
2025-12-03	87.35	90.84	-0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-12-02	86.90	89.41	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-12-01	87.93	90.15	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-11-28	88.50	92.03	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-11-26	88.42	91.78	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-11-25	88.23	91.43	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-11-24	87.03	89.09	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-11-21	86.79	88.91	-0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-11-20	84.46	88.43	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-11-19	84.92	88.27	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-11-18	83.38	89.93	-0.91	TSCO ahead
2025-11-17	84.15	90.18	-0.81	TSCO ahead
2025-11-14	85.53	93.11	-1.08	TSCO ahead
2025-11-13	87.25	94.38	-0.98	TSCO ahead
2025-11-12	88.76	94.05	-0.64	TSCO ahead
2025-11-11	88.86	93.98	-0.62	TSCO ahead
2025-11-10	88.20	93.17	-0.60	TSCO ahead
2025-11-07	87.59	91.17	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-11-06	85.92	89.21	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-11-05	86.46	90.59	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-11-04	88.31	89.12	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-11-03	89.00	88.18	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-10-31	88.82	90.90	-0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-10-30	89.58	90.92	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-10-29	89.02	91.12	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-10-28	91.27	93.22	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-10-27	86.54	94.70	-1.22	TSCO ahead
2025-10-24	86.00	94.55	-1.30	TSCO ahead
2025-10-23	85.42	94.67	-1.44	TSCO ahead
2025-10-22	85.95	92.11	-0.89	TSCO ahead
2025-10-21	87.15	92.01	-0.64	TSCO ahead
2025-10-20	85.29	92.89	-1.17	TSCO ahead
2025-10-17	85.16	92.74	-1.18	TSCO ahead
2025-10-16	85.35	92.67	-1.13	TSCO ahead
2025-10-15	85.68	93.76	-1.27	TSCO ahead
2025-10-14	86.33	93.21	-1.05	TSCO ahead
2025-10-13	85.53	92.25	-1.04	TSCO ahead
2025-10-10	85.70	91.12	-0.80	TSCO ahead
2025-10-09	85.80	91.09	-0.77	TSCO ahead
2025-10-08	86.92	90.59	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-10-07	86.78	90.23	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-10-06	86.75	91.88	-0.73	TSCO ahead
2025-10-03	89.25	93.79	-0.61	TSCO ahead
2025-10-02	88.55	94.47	-0.87	TSCO ahead
2025-10-01	87.86	93.95	-0.91	TSCO ahead
2025-09-30	89.16	95.54	-0.96	TSCO ahead
2025-09-29	88.30	95.24	-1.08	TSCO ahead
2025-09-26	88.04	94.95	-1.09	TSCO ahead
2025-09-25	87.57	94.79	-1.16	TSCO ahead
2025-09-24	88.31	96.35	-1.30	TSCO ahead
2025-09-23	88.69	98.38	-1.60	TSCO ahead
2025-09-22	89.20	97.67	-1.39	TSCO ahead
2025-09-19	89.30	100.23	-1.84	TSCO ahead
2025-09-18	90.01	100.58	-1.78	TSCO ahead
2025-09-17	90.18	99.29	-1.54	TSCO ahead
2025-09-16	90.95	99.10	-1.37	TSCO ahead
2025-09-15	91.95	100.14	-1.37	TSCO ahead
2025-09-12	92.72	101.82	-1.53	TSCO ahead
2025-09-11	94.93	100.83	-0.95	TSCO ahead
2025-09-10	92.04	98.20	-1.03	TSCO ahead
2025-09-09	93.05	99.25	-1.04	TSCO ahead
2025-09-08	96.62	100.95	-0.68	TSCO ahead
2025-09-05	95.90	101.67	-0.94	TSCO ahead
2025-09-04	94.19	101.87	-1.31	TSCO ahead
2025-09-03	93.48	101.03	-1.31	TSCO ahead
2025-09-02	92.93	103.35	-1.83	TSCO ahead
2025-08-29	94.20	103.76	-1.68	TSCO ahead
2025-08-28	94.29	105.25	-1.94	TSCO ahead
2025-08-27	94.60	104.80	-1.82	TSCO ahead
2025-08-26	94.36	103.64	-1.68	TSCO ahead
2025-08-25	94.50	103.35	-1.62	TSCO ahead
2025-08-22	96.03	103.50	-1.37	TSCO ahead
2025-08-21	93.69	102.48	-1.65	TSCO ahead
2025-08-20	94.53	102.53	-1.51	TSCO ahead
2025-08-19	94.74	104.63	-1.87	TSCO ahead
2025-08-18	92.40	102.65	-2.00	TSCO ahead
2025-08-15	93.83	101.62	-1.54	TSCO ahead
2025-08-14	94.13	100.28	-1.23	TSCO ahead
2025-08-13	94.97	100.35	-1.09	TSCO ahead
2025-08-12	92.21	99.62	-1.52	TSCO ahead
2025-08-11	91.30	100.01	-1.81	TSCO ahead
2025-08-08	90.68	99.56	-1.87	TSCO ahead
2025-08-07	90.10	100.83	-2.27	TSCO ahead
2025-08-06	90.31	101.22	-2.34	TSCO ahead
2025-08-05	90.66	100.41	-2.13	TSCO ahead
2025-08-04	89.57	99.96	-2.32	TSCO ahead
2025-08-01	88.43	96.82	-1.96	TSCO ahead
2025-07-31	85.20	95.68	-2.51	TSCO ahead
2025-07-30	85.48	97.15	-2.81	TSCO ahead
2025-07-29	86.77	98.43	-2.83	TSCO ahead
2025-07-28	86.56	97.62	-2.75	TSCO ahead
2025-07-25	87.57	99.67	-3.00	TSCO ahead
2025-07-24	87.60	99.69	-3.03	TSCO ahead
2025-07-23	88.30	100.16	-2.99	TSCO ahead
2025-07-22	87.57	99.09	-2.97	TSCO ahead
2025-07-21	87.88	96.45	-2.27	TSCO ahead
2025-07-18	87.57	95.05	-2.00	TSCO ahead
2025-07-17	87.52	95.47	-2.10	TSCO ahead
2025-07-16	87.51	94.15	-1.79	TSCO ahead
2025-07-15	87.30	94.65	-1.95	TSCO ahead
2025-07-14	88.71	97.51	-2.25	TSCO ahead
2025-07-11	89.07	95.41	-1.66	TSCO ahead
2025-07-10	90.59	96.50	-1.52	TSCO ahead
2025-07-09	90.52	96.11	-1.42	TSCO ahead
2025-07-08	89.09	95.37	-1.56	TSCO ahead
2025-07-07	89.17	95.36	-1.50	TSCO ahead
2025-07-03	91.15	91.78	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-07-02	90.77	92.63	-0.51	TSCO ahead
2025-07-01	91.49	90.85	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-06-30	88.41	88.65	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-06-27	89.02	86.87	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-06-26	88.03	87.09	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-06-25	88.48	88.70	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-06-24	89.01	89.90	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-06-23	88.52	90.15	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-06-20	85.87	88.23	-0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-06-18	85.35	87.41	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-06-17	85.24	85.65	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-06-16	86.46	86.84	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-06-13	86.49	86.59	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-06-12	91.72	86.92	+0.85	SHW ahead
2025-06-11	91.96	86.20	+1.02	SHW ahead
2025-06-10	92.89	86.49	+1.12	SHW ahead
2025-06-09	92.17	84.86	+1.29	SHW ahead
2025-06-06	92.05	85.58	+1.16	SHW ahead
2025-06-05	92.15	86.44	+1.04	SHW ahead
2025-06-04	93.27	82.89	+1.81	SHW ahead
2025-06-03	92.12	82.40	+1.72	SHW ahead
2025-06-02	91.52	80.40	+1.98	SHW ahead
2025-05-30	92.39	81.31	+1.96	SHW ahead
2025-05-29	91.60	82.27	+1.68	SHW ahead
2025-05-28	91.34	82.42	+1.62	SHW ahead
2025-05-27	92.52	84.64	+1.44	SHW ahead
2025-05-23	90.77	83.50	+1.37	SHW ahead
2025-05-22	90.88	83.45	+1.40	SHW ahead
2025-05-21	91.14	84.07	+1.35	SHW ahead
2025-05-20	92.47	86.69	+1.14	SHW ahead
2025-05-19	93.21	88.89	+0.92	SHW ahead
2025-05-16	93.60	89.02	+0.96	SHW ahead
2025-05-15	93.07	87.65	+1.10	SHW ahead
2025-05-14	90.48	86.32	+0.94	SHW ahead
2025-05-13	91.68	87.88	+0.88	SHW ahead
2025-05-12	91.96	88.57	+0.83	SHW ahead
2025-05-09	90.60	86.18	+1.00	SHW ahead
2025-05-08	91.04	86.39	+1.04	SHW ahead
2025-05-07	90.53	85.61	+1.09	SHW ahead
2025-05-06	90.77	85.71	+1.12	SHW ahead
2025-05-05	92.65	86.08	+1.34	SHW ahead
2025-05-02	92.60	85.41	+1.45	SHW ahead
2025-05-01	91.06	84.59	+1.36	SHW ahead
2025-04-30	90.87	85.04	+1.28	SHW ahead
2025-04-29	89.64	83.78	+1.30	SHW ahead
2025-04-28	85.54	82.32	+0.93	SHW ahead
2025-04-25	85.39	83.87	+0.67	SHW ahead
2025-04-24	86.12	82.32	+1.03	SHW ahead
2025-04-23	85.29	85.23	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-04-22	85.48	84.47	+0.60	SHW ahead
2025-04-21	82.99	83.31	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-04-17	85.84	84.27	+0.69	SHW ahead
2025-04-16	85.30	82.92	+0.83	SHW ahead
2025-04-15	86.74	85.68	+0.62	SHW ahead
2025-04-14	87.81	87.65	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-04-11	86.72	86.81	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-04-10	84.95	86.22	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-04-09	86.58	86.32	+0.50	SHW ahead
2025-04-08	80.73	80.67	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-04-07	83.12	82.91	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-04-04	85.50	88.03	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-04-03	87.72	93.69	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-04-02	91.06	93.44	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-04-01	90.27	92.62	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-03-31	89.91	92.57	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-03-28	87.48	89.83	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-03-27	89.00	90.99	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-03-26	88.69	90.50	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-03-25	87.85	88.75	+0.30	near the usual relationship
2025-03-24	88.25	89.93	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-03-21	86.11	88.13	+0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-03-20	86.53	87.09	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-03-19	86.24	88.70	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-03-18	86.40	88.45	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-03-17	88.13	89.26	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-03-14	88.01	87.07	+0.56	SHW ahead
2025-03-13	88.09	86.79	+0.61	SHW ahead
2025-03-12	90.08	87.96	+0.73	SHW ahead
2025-03-11	90.90	90.59	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-03-10	92.13	96.11	-0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-03-07	93.63	95.57	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-03-06	92.72	91.71	+0.55	SHW ahead
2025-03-05	93.29	92.32	+0.54	SHW ahead
2025-03-04	91.48	92.57	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-03-03	91.86	92.23	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-02-28	93.28	92.99	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-02-27	91.54	91.93	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-02-26	92.59	92.63	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-02-25	90.90	95.78	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2025-02-24	88.54	94.18	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-02-21	88.72	94.70	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-02-20	90.13	97.00	-0.56	TSCO ahead
2025-02-19	90.60	97.20	-0.52	TSCO ahead
2025-02-18	90.89	96.97	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-02-14	91.89	95.99	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-02-13	92.99	95.74	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-02-12	91.54	93.86	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-02-11	93.05	92.35	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-02-10	92.48	91.44	+0.52	SHW ahead
2025-02-07	92.84	88.96	+0.92	SHW ahead
2025-02-06	94.04	89.14	+1.06	SHW ahead
2025-02-05	93.85	90.06	+0.91	SHW ahead
2025-02-04	92.08	90.79	+0.56	SHW ahead
2025-02-03	92.09	91.69	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-01-31	92.22	91.32	+0.50	SHW ahead
2025-01-30	94.13	91.21	+0.78	SHW ahead
2025-01-29	92.80	96.03	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-01-28	93.77	96.40	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-01-27	93.77	97.32	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-01-24	92.74	97.34	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-01-23	92.98	96.40	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-01-22	92.12	96.55	-0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-01-21	93.09	95.56	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-01-17	91.15	90.15	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-01-16	91.20	89.93	+0.53	SHW ahead
2025-01-15	89.33	89.21	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-01-14	87.97	89.34	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-01-13	86.55	91.68	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-01-10	85.01	91.71	-0.63	TSCO ahead
2025-01-08	86.91	91.37	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-01-07	86.11	90.50	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-01-06	86.99	90.13	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-01-03	86.66	87.24	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-01-02	85.79	88.00	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2024-12-31	87.53	89.14	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2024-12-30	87.23	88.35	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2024-12-27	88.39	91.66	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2024-12-26	88.97	93.22	-0.30	near the usual relationship
2024-12-24	89.23	91.54	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2024-12-23	88.79	90.20	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2024-12-20	88.96	90.59	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2024-12-19	88.16	88.71	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2024-12-18	89.78	89.10	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-12-17	93.42	92.47	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2024-12-16	93.99	92.91	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-12-13	93.86	95.91	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2024-12-12	94.46	95.85	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2024-12-11	95.77	95.92	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2024-12-10	95.68	95.66	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-12-09	96.93	95.33	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-12-06	99.12	94.91	+0.74	SHW ahead
2024-12-05	99.20	94.91	+0.75	SHW ahead
2024-12-04	100.96	96.05	+0.82	SHW ahead
2024-12-03	101.79	95.75	+0.96	SHW ahead
2024-12-02	101.86	97.53	+0.74	SHW ahead
2024-11-29	102.33	95.31	+1.08	SHW ahead
2024-11-27	101.44	94.74	+1.05	SHW ahead
2024-11-26	102.00	94.14	+1.19	SHW ahead
2024-11-25	102.92	96.09	+1.05	SHW ahead
2024-11-22	99.98	94.65	+0.88	SHW ahead
2024-11-21	98.70	91.94	+1.08	SHW ahead
2024-11-20	95.70	90.72	+0.87	SHW ahead
2024-11-19	96.17	91.68	+0.81	SHW ahead
2024-11-18	96.65	93.01	+0.69	SHW ahead
2024-11-15	97.59	92.62	+0.86	SHW ahead
2024-11-14	100.03	93.10	+1.11	SHW ahead
2024-11-13	99.72	93.66	+1.00	SHW ahead
2024-11-12	98.79	93.81	+0.87	SHW ahead
2024-11-11	100.23	94.61	+0.95	SHW ahead
2024-11-08	99.56	96.96	+0.58	SHW ahead
2024-11-07	98.88	97.20	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2024-11-06	98.04	97.09	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-11-05	97.39	92.81	+0.85	SHW ahead
2024-11-04	96.41	90.84	+0.99	SHW ahead
2024-11-01	92.17	89.57	+0.62	SHW ahead
2024-10-31	92.38	89.21	+0.70	SHW ahead
2024-10-30	93.18	90.03	+0.70	SHW ahead
2024-10-29	93.11	90.32	+0.66	SHW ahead
2024-10-28	93.54	90.71	+0.66	SHW ahead
2024-10-25	92.45	91.65	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2024-10-24	93.11	92.16	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-10-23	93.40	98.14	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2024-10-22	93.05	97.92	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2024-10-21	98.30	98.99	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	+0.31	near the usual relationship

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Jan 29, 2026 (SHW +1.4%, TSCO -7.6%); Apr 21, 2026 (SHW -2.7%, TSCO -11.7%); Jul 28, 2026 (SHW +8.3%, TSCO -1.1%). Upcoming earnings: TSCO Oct 22, 2026 (pre-market); SHW Oct 27, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

SHW and TSCO at a glance

SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 89800
Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials · SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply
Market value: $80.5B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

TSCO Tractor Supply Company

Listing: Nasdaq · SEC CIK 916365
Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials · SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply
Market value: $17.1B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
LOW / SHW	Watchlist	SHW by 1.60 sd	RETAIL: Building Materials
SHW / FAST	Watchlist	FAST by 1.29 sd	SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply
HD / SHW	Watchlist	SHW by 1.29 sd	RETAIL: Building Materials
FAST / TSCO	Watchlist	FAST by 1.04 sd	SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.