Crypto · Shadow test

AI exit warnings: Jev

After every final daily close, each open Wave paper long is described to Jev 1.13.0, a model made by TypeSafe, with one frozen question: is this trend weakening? Its warnings are compared with a simple control rule, close below the 10-day EMA with RSI below 50, in shadow only: a warning never changes a Wave decision.

Collecting

4 timely Jev answers so far, 3 warnings, plus 18 backfilled answers that never count. Too early for a verdict.

Pre-registered as JEV-WEAKEN-1. From the test's own records with a 5-minute delay, as of 2026-10-23 03:13 UTC. Paper only, not investment advice.

Does an AI model's "this trend is weakening" warning arrive earlier, or prove more useful, than a simple rule?

Timely Jev answers
4
Backfilled answers (never counted)
18
Positions observed (forward)
6
Jev warnings (timely)
3
Control warnings (forward)
11
Needed for a verdict
30 warned trades
About the model

What Jev is, and what it does here

  • TypeSafe describes Jev as a "System One" model: it does not chat or write text. Given a state and typed questions it returns structured answers. Here the state is one coin's last 30 final daily bars with indicators computed in code, and the answers are a value from 0 to 1 for "this trend is weakening" and a position on a four-level trend scale.
  • Its role is a shadow warning light. A value of 0.70 or more is a warning, stored with its time and the price at that moment, then compared with what the Wave position really did. It never closes a position, changes a Wave rule or places an order.
  • It sees public market data only: the final daily bars, the indicators and Boostio's BTC market-regime label. No position size, entry price, profit or loss, member or personal data is sent.
  • A value is not a probability of profit. TypeSafe describes Jev's values as calibrated probabilities for the question asked; whether a warning helps a trade is what this test measures, after costs, against the simple rule.
  • The version is frozen: answers must come from jev-1.13.0, the version pinned when the test was registered. TypeSafe released Jev 1.14 on October 14, 2026; a newer version would be a new test, and an answer from any other model is stored apart and never counts.
  • Usage is capped: TypeSafe charges per input token (USD 0.042 per million for this version; output is free). The job sends at most 20 questions a run and 200,000 input tokens a day, with no automatic retries, so a full day costs less than one cent.
  • Boostio is not affiliated with or endorsed by TypeSafe.
Where it stands

The test, stage by stage

  1. RegisteredDoneOct 16, 2026Question, model version, control rule and timing written before any answer.
  2. Historical testDoneControl rule replayed on 67 past observations; never AI evidence.
  3. Forward recordNowOct 15, 2026Answering since October 21, 2026; 4 timely answers so far.
  4. First readAheadAt 30 closed warned trades.
  5. DecisionAhead
Results so far

Answers so far, and why there is no result yet

No result yet. No verdict before 30 closed positions with timely warnings; the record grows with every daily close.
22 answersSimple rule warnedSimple rule quiet
Jev warned112
Jev quiet09

4 timely and 18 backfilled, answering since Oct 21, 2026. How often the two agree says nothing about whether either helps: only closed positions, priced after costs at each warning's own time, can show that.

For context only: the control rule replayed on 67 past observations of closed Wave positions fired 0 times before their exits. That replay is never evidence about the AI model.

How it works

The rules, as registered

1

After each final daily close (runs at 01:35 and 04:35 UTC), build one state per open Wave paper long: the last 30 daily bars and indicators, computed in code.

2

The control rule flags a weakening trend; Jev answers the frozen question about the same state. A value of 0.70 or more is a warning.

3

An AI warning counts only if it arrives within 60 minutes of the decision, priced at its answer time. Late answers are labelled and never count.

4

A verdict needs 30 closed positions with timely warnings, an interval above zero and a win over the control.

Limits

What this test cannot tell you

  • Only timely answers count: an answer must arrive within 60 minutes of its decision. The first answers replied to decisions recorded before the key was set up, so they are shown as backfilled and never count.
  • Small samples decide nothing: a verdict needs 30 closed positions with timely warnings, an interval above zero and a win over the simple rule.
  • The same frozen question runs on Claude as a separate experiment; its answers are never counted as Jev's.
  • Shadow only: a warning never changes a Wave decision.
  • Paper only: no orders, no real money, and not investment advice.
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