Crypto · Paper book, in force

Wave decision policy

Wave's alt-coin engine never showed a durable edge, so its paper capital now follows one simple rule. BTC and ETH each get half of the policy capital and are held only while their last final daily close is above the 200-day average; below it, that half waits in cash.

In force

In force on the Wave paper account since 2026-10-17 02:34 UTC with $30,000 of policy capital.

Pre-registered as WAVE-POLICY-1. From the test's own records with a 5-minute delay, as of 2026-10-23 03:13 UTC. Paper only, not investment advice.

Can a plain trend rule on BTC and ETH do better, with smaller losses, than Wave's alt-coin engine and than simply holding BTC?

Policy capital: $30,000
BTC half: Held since 2026-10-17
ETH half: Held since 2026-10-17
Final days recorded: 6
Switches logged: 2

Where it stands

The test, stage by stage

RegisteredDoneOct 17, 2026Rules and pass bars written before any run.
Historical testDoneOct 17, 2026Passed its four pre-registered conditions; chosen over the alternatives tried in order.
Forward recordNowOct 17, 2026In force; 6 final days recorded.
First readAheadJan 15, 2027Interim read: a report, not a verdict.
DecisionAheadApr 16, 2027Pass needs the rule followed on every close, a drawdown no deeper than BTC held and a return at least the control's.

Results so far

The running record

Policy bookBTC held (same money)

Since adoption: policy book -0.62% (deepest drop -3.3%), BTC held with the same money +0.08% (deepest drop -3.18%), over 6 final days.

Switch (UTC)	Asset	Action	Final close	200-day average	Paper fill
2026-10-17 02:46	BTC	Hold (buy)	81,615.64	72,398.44	81,351
2026-10-17 02:46	ETH	Hold (buy)	2,423.54	2,145.79	2,417.39

How it works

The rules, as registered

After each daily close is final, compare BTC and ETH with their 200-day simple moving averages.

Above the average, hold that half. Below it, switch that half to cash at the next scan. No stop, no target and no timer.

Each half compounds on its own, paying modelled trading costs on every switch.

While the policy is in force, Wave's scored and trend alt-coin entries open nothing new; the long-term holds are separate.

Historical screen

What the replay showed, before adoption

Window	This rule	Alt-coin engine (control)	BTC held
2019 to 2021	+202.60% (drop -54.1%)	+146.80% (drop -38.1%)	+199.10% (drop -60%)
2021 to 2023	+75.20% (drop -35.9%)	+107.30% (drop -31.8%)	+41.80% (drop -76.6%)
2023 to 2026	+67.30% (drop -29.9%)	-25.00% (drop -62.8%)	+93.50% (drop -53%)
Chained 2019 to 2026	+787.90% (drop -54.1%)	+283.80% (drop -62.8%)	+658.10% (drop -76.6%)

Replay on daily closes from the starting capital, costs included, as of Oct 16, 2026. Drop = the deepest fall from a high. The windows were known when the rule was chosen, so this is a screen, not proof.

Limits

What this test cannot tell you

In the historical test it trailed simply holding BTC in the 2024 to 2026 window; its case is the shallower drawdown, not the higher return.
The historical windows were known when the rule was chosen, so they are evidence, not proof. The forward record decides.
Fills use the price at the first scan after the close is final, which can differ from the next open.
Paper only: no orders, no real money, and not investment advice.

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