Prediction markets · Copy-trading pilot

Kalshi copy: consensus

Enter only when rostered traders from at least two independent clusters (little overlap in the markets they trade) hold the same side of a market within 48 hours; exit when that agreement breaks or reverses.

Needs trader data

Kalshi's market data works for Boostio's own paper testing (checked 2026-10-22): the paper fills can be priced from live quotes, fee terms and settlements. The copy books still have nothing to copy: named traders' entries and exits are shown only on Kalshi's website and app, whose terms do not allow scripted collection, and the API carries none.

Pre-registered as KALSHI-COPY-1. From the test's own records with a 5-minute delay, as of 2026-10-23 03:14 UTC. Paper only, not investment advice.

Can copying the best traders on Kalshi's public leaderboard make money once you pay their fees and arrive a minute late?

Traders observed
0
Market data
Available for own use (checked 2026-10-22)
Paper books
$10,000 event contracts, $10,000 perpetuals
First read needs
28 days and 30 episodes
Where it stands

The test, stage by stage

  1. RegisteredDoneOct 19, 2026Roster rules, copy timing, fees, caps and the read written down.
  2. Historical testNot usedNone: a fair test needs trades observed live, with their times.
  3. Forward recordNeeds dataNeeds a permitted source of named traders' trades; market data is ready.
  4. First readAhead4 and 8 weeks after collection starts.
  5. DecisionAhead
Results so far

Nothing to show yet, and why

No result yet. Nothing has been copied, so no result exists. Results will not be estimated or simulated.
What works, and the one missing input

Checked Oct 19, 2026, from Kalshi's own documents

What the documents say

  • Market data (quotes, fee terms, settlements) comes from Kalshi's public API, which its developer agreement allows a member to store to facilitate their own trading. It prices Boostio's own paper fills and is never shown to visitors.
  • Named traders' positions and history exist only on Kalshi's website and app (an opt-in leaderboard, public profiles and private circles). The API has no leaderboard, profile or social data, and its public trades carry no account.
  • Kalshi's data terms forbid collecting or compiling its website data with scripts, and using it with AI tools, without prior written authorization.
  • Kalshi's demo environment needs an account, which this test is not authorized to open.

What it needs to copy

  • A permitted source of named traders' entries and exits with their times: Kalshi's prior written authorization for leaderboard and public-profile activity, or a Kalshi-sanctioned feed with each trader's consent.
  • Market data is not a prerequisite: Kalshi's public API already gives the quotes, fee terms and settlements the paper fills need, for Boostio's own testing.
  • Nothing has been requested from Kalshi yet.

Not used instead

  • Third-party leaderboards or scrapers built on Kalshi pages (derived from the prohibited collection).
  • Screen claims in promotional videos: not execution records.
  • Kalshi's public trades: unattributed, so no trader can be followed. Using them would be a different experiment about anonymous order flow, never copy trading.
How it works

The rules, as registered

1

Form a roster of up to 8 traders over 60 days from opt-in public results: at least 15 closed positions on 14 active days, ranked by a lower bound of their mean return. Never by dollar profit, win rate, volume or followers, and at most 3 traders per specialty.

2

Act on each observed trade 60 seconds after it is first seen, at a quote no older than 120 seconds and for at most a quarter of the displayed size, paying Kalshi's published fee formula.

3

Event contracts ($10K paper, 1% per position) and perpetuals ($10K paper, 2% notional at 1x leverage) are separate books and are never added together.

4

Compare with a baseline taking the favourite side of the same market at the same times (perpetuals: the reference market, same notional, same times).

Limits

What this test cannot tell you

  • Leaderboards show winners after the fact: a roster formed on past results can simply be lucky, which is why it is ranked on a conservative lower bound and judged forward only.
  • Copying arrives late and pays the spread and fees the trader may have avoided.
  • Not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi.
  • Paper only: no orders, no real money, and not investment advice.
Related tests

The other two ways to copy

All strategies →

Kalshi copy: simple

Copy every move of every rostered trader.

KALSHI-COPY-1

Kalshi copy: specialist

Copy traders only in the category they specialise in.

KALSHI-COPY-1