SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply

Fastenal Company vs The Sherwin-Williams Company

WatchlistFAST / SHWPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($81B vs $59B) with SEC SIC 5200 (Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.39 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.33 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

SHW is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	FAST	SHW	Larger
2025	$8.2B	$23.6B	SHW
2024	$7.5B	$23.1B	SHW
2023	$7.3B	$23.1B	SHW
2022	$7.0B	$22.1B	SHW
2021	$6.0B	$19.9B	SHW
2020	$5.6B	$18.4B	SHW

SHW led in every year with figures for both. Market value: FAST $58.5B, SHW $80.5B.

Stock leadership

FAST is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

FAST leads SHW by 1.29 standard deviations: +11.5% over its usual price ratio. 0 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
FAST	+12.1%	+16.0%	+21.7%
SHW	+8.9%	+2.4%	+2.1%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.39 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.33 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 34.69 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

FAST Fastenal Company SHW The Sherwin-Williams CompanyPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: FAST relative to SHW, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: FAST ahead; below 0: SHW ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	FAST index	SHW index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	135.38	89.00	+1.29	FAST ahead
2026-10-21	134.76	86.84	+1.54	FAST ahead
2026-10-20	132.61	86.52	+1.40	FAST ahead
2026-10-19	130.99	85.39	+1.42	FAST ahead
2026-10-16	130.99	86.31	+1.31	FAST ahead
2026-10-15	129.35	86.75	+1.10	FAST ahead
2026-10-14	133.50	83.57	+1.95	FAST ahead
2026-10-13	132.04	83.45	+1.86	FAST ahead
2026-10-12	132.20	82.45	+2.04	FAST ahead
2026-10-09	130.30	82.23	+1.91	FAST ahead
2026-10-08	129.63	82.66	+1.80	FAST ahead
2026-10-07	127.93	81.11	+1.89	FAST ahead
2026-10-06	130.45	82.70	+1.91	FAST ahead
2026-10-05	130.14	82.00	+2.01	FAST ahead
2026-10-02	130.30	82.27	+2.01	FAST ahead
2026-10-01	128.95	82.60	+1.84	FAST ahead
2026-09-30	127.16	83.24	+1.57	FAST ahead
2026-09-29	128.27	85.09	+1.41	FAST ahead
2026-09-28	129.63	85.69	+1.46	FAST ahead
2026-09-25	129.47	84.74	+1.61	FAST ahead
2026-09-24	130.24	82.50	+2.05	FAST ahead
2026-09-23	130.91	84.06	+1.90	FAST ahead
2026-09-22	128.58	84.55	+1.60	FAST ahead
2026-09-21	127.47	82.74	+1.79	FAST ahead
2026-09-18	125.83	82.59	+1.65	FAST ahead
2026-09-17	126.26	82.64	+1.71	FAST ahead
2026-09-16	125.88	82.77	+1.66	FAST ahead
2026-09-15	126.85	83.23	+1.71	FAST ahead
2026-09-14	126.93	83.56	+1.68	FAST ahead
2026-09-11	126.62	83.25	+1.71	FAST ahead
2026-09-10	125.83	81.74	+1.90	FAST ahead
2026-09-09	125.26	82.56	+1.72	FAST ahead
2026-09-08	126.78	83.97	+1.67	FAST ahead
2026-09-04	127.34	85.93	+1.41	FAST ahead
2026-09-03	126.39	85.55	+1.38	FAST ahead
2026-09-02	123.06	85.29	+1.05	FAST ahead
2026-09-01	125.16	84.96	+1.36	FAST ahead
2026-08-31	126.60	87.24	+1.15	FAST ahead
2026-08-28	127.80	88.80	+1.04	FAST ahead
2026-08-27	131.28	88.89	+1.42	FAST ahead
2026-08-26	131.32	89.78	+1.28	FAST ahead
2026-08-25	129.17	90.24	+0.98	FAST ahead
2026-08-24	131.66	89.28	+1.42	FAST ahead
2026-08-21	131.60	89.24	+1.43	FAST ahead
2026-08-20	130.06	89.33	+1.25	FAST ahead
2026-08-19	132.07	91.05	+1.20	FAST ahead
2026-08-18	131.63	88.90	+1.52	FAST ahead
2026-08-17	131.53	90.11	+1.32	FAST ahead
2026-08-14	130.99	92.47	+0.88	FAST ahead
2026-08-13	131.81	93.10	+0.88	FAST ahead
2026-08-12	134.07	92.75	+1.19	FAST ahead
2026-08-11	134.48	93.84	+1.07	FAST ahead
2026-08-10	133.89	93.40	+1.08	FAST ahead
2026-08-07	133.09	95.20	+0.71	FAST ahead
2026-08-06	130.42	93.58	+0.67	FAST ahead
2026-08-05	128.34	95.19	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2026-08-04	127.63	93.10	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-08-03	123.52	91.21	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2026-07-31	122.49	87.77	+0.69	FAST ahead
2026-07-30	119.79	88.79	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-07-29	122.67	88.55	+0.58	FAST ahead
2026-07-28	123.49	91.22	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2026-07-27	122.31	84.27	+1.28	FAST ahead
2026-07-24	120.72	81.76	+1.54	FAST ahead
2026-07-23	118.49	79.96	+1.61	FAST ahead
2026-07-22	116.38	82.37	+0.89	FAST ahead
2026-07-21	115.56	82.00	+0.86	FAST ahead
2026-07-20	114.92	83.32	+0.54	FAST ahead
2026-07-17	116.79	85.31	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-07-16	119.82	87.07	+0.51	FAST ahead
2026-07-15	116.46	85.56	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2026-07-14	117.43	84.59	+0.65	FAST ahead
2026-07-13	120.80	84.71	+1.06	FAST ahead
2026-07-10	119.36	86.00	+0.66	FAST ahead
2026-07-09	119.00	85.50	+0.71	FAST ahead
2026-07-08	119.41	85.12	+0.83	FAST ahead
2026-07-07	120.95	88.13	+0.51	FAST ahead
2026-07-06	124.03	89.90	+0.59	FAST ahead
2026-07-02	124.78	90.76	+0.55	FAST ahead
2026-07-01	122.59	89.11	+0.56	FAST ahead
2026-06-30	123.31	88.66	+0.73	FAST ahead
2026-06-29	121.69	88.65	+0.54	FAST ahead
2026-06-26	120.92	88.60	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-06-25	120.46	87.31	+0.63	FAST ahead
2026-06-24	118.77	85.78	+0.69	FAST ahead
2026-06-23	117.07	83.14	+0.94	FAST ahead
2026-06-22	118.41	81.60	+1.39	FAST ahead
2026-06-18	117.82	82.60	+1.15	FAST ahead
2026-06-17	115.22	80.80	+1.15	FAST ahead
2026-06-16	118.23	83.03	+1.14	FAST ahead
2026-06-15	118.36	82.46	+1.27	FAST ahead
2026-06-12	119.56	81.70	+1.57	FAST ahead
2026-06-11	119.10	81.60	+1.54	FAST ahead
2026-06-10	118.18	78.25	+2.06	FAST ahead
2026-06-09	119.59	79.96	+1.93	FAST ahead
2026-06-08	118.10	77.13	+2.31	FAST ahead
2026-06-05	120.13	78.61	+2.29	FAST ahead
2026-06-04	121.08	77.27	+2.70	FAST ahead
2026-06-03	119.28	76.34	+2.70	FAST ahead
2026-06-02	114.84	75.45	+2.33	FAST ahead
2026-06-01	112.94	75.92	+2.00	FAST ahead
2026-05-29	113.48	78.24	+1.63	FAST ahead
2026-05-28	114.92	78.57	+1.77	FAST ahead
2026-05-27	115.07	79.82	+1.57	FAST ahead
2026-05-26	114.12	80.14	+1.39	FAST ahead
2026-05-22	112.81	79.59	+1.33	FAST ahead
2026-05-21	111.76	79.65	+1.18	FAST ahead
2026-05-20	112.14	79.23	+1.32	FAST ahead
2026-05-19	111.86	77.00	+1.72	FAST ahead
2026-05-18	112.97	77.96	+1.69	FAST ahead
2026-05-15	111.07	77.27	+1.58	FAST ahead
2026-05-14	112.91	79.61	+1.39	FAST ahead
2026-05-13	112.37	78.88	+1.47	FAST ahead
2026-05-12	111.22	80.23	+1.07	FAST ahead
2026-05-11	111.17	80.52	+1.02	FAST ahead
2026-05-08	113.40	81.58	+1.12	FAST ahead
2026-05-07	113.89	82.45	+1.04	FAST ahead
2026-05-06	114.79	83.33	+1.01	FAST ahead
2026-05-05	113.81	80.46	+1.39	FAST ahead
2026-05-04	115.22	79.95	+1.67	FAST ahead
2026-05-01	115.30	81.88	+1.35	FAST ahead
2026-04-30	115.35	82.81	+1.21	FAST ahead
2026-04-29	112.22	81.84	+0.99	FAST ahead
2026-04-28	114.71	83.50	+1.03	FAST ahead
2026-04-27	116.25	86.54	+0.72	FAST ahead
2026-04-24	114.74	86.96	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-04-23	116.69	86.95	+0.71	FAST ahead
2026-04-22	115.04	86.30	+0.62	FAST ahead
2026-04-21	117.33	86.16	+0.93	FAST ahead
2026-04-20	116.97	88.56	+0.50	FAST ahead
2026-04-17	117.54	88.98	+0.51	FAST ahead
2026-04-16	114.81	85.83	+0.69	FAST ahead
2026-04-15	113.99	84.67	+0.79	FAST ahead
2026-04-14	114.56	85.90	+0.66	FAST ahead
2026-04-13	117.59	86.10	+1.00	FAST ahead
2026-04-10	126.24	86.55	+1.95	FAST ahead
2026-04-09	126.06	86.45	+1.96	FAST ahead
2026-04-08	123.70	86.43	+1.71	FAST ahead
2026-04-07	117.18	80.84	+1.90	FAST ahead
2026-04-06	117.77	81.47	+1.88	FAST ahead
2026-04-02	118.87	81.88	+1.96	FAST ahead
2026-04-01	119.72	83.87	+1.73	FAST ahead
2026-03-31	119.13	82.54	+1.90	FAST ahead
2026-03-30	115.84	81.34	+1.73	FAST ahead
2026-03-27	115.40	81.21	+1.71	FAST ahead
2026-03-26	115.82	82.28	+1.59	FAST ahead
2026-03-25	116.48	82.90	+1.58	FAST ahead
2026-03-24	115.25	80.78	+1.81	FAST ahead
2026-03-23	114.12	80.84	+1.67	FAST ahead
2026-03-20	112.35	78.16	+1.95	FAST ahead
2026-03-19	114.22	79.92	+1.89	FAST ahead
2026-03-18	115.74	80.37	+2.01	FAST ahead
2026-03-17	117.92	82.58	+1.91	FAST ahead
2026-03-16	117.28	83.10	+1.75	FAST ahead
2026-03-13	116.71	82.34	+1.82	FAST ahead
2026-03-12	116.17	81.81	+1.87	FAST ahead
2026-03-11	119.61	83.10	+2.08	FAST ahead
2026-03-10	118.87	85.06	+1.67	FAST ahead
2026-03-09	120.15	85.85	+1.70	FAST ahead
2026-03-06	119.28	84.94	+1.75	FAST ahead
2026-03-05	121.44	86.38	+1.78	FAST ahead
2026-03-04	119.20	89.52	+1.02	FAST ahead
2026-03-03	118.69	89.82	+0.92	FAST ahead
2026-03-02	118.95	91.69	+0.67	FAST ahead
2026-02-27	118.20	93.36	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-02-26	117.28	92.83	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2026-02-25	114.58	91.99	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2026-02-24	116.71	93.92	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2026-02-23	115.66	93.80	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2026-02-20	118.66	92.86	+0.50	FAST ahead
2026-02-19	118.64	92.08	+0.61	FAST ahead
2026-02-18	118.05	94.18	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2026-02-17	117.30	94.74	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2026-02-13	119.15	94.99	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2026-02-12	116.92	95.94	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2026-02-11	120.72	94.49	+0.52	FAST ahead
2026-02-10	119.79	93.89	+0.51	FAST ahead
2026-02-09	119.44	92.85	+0.62	FAST ahead
2026-02-06	122.54	93.21	+0.89	FAST ahead
2026-02-05	121.51	92.97	+0.82	FAST ahead
2026-02-04	123.95	94.99	+0.81	FAST ahead
2026-02-03	118.97	92.60	+0.63	FAST ahead
2026-02-02	115.02	91.76	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-01-30	111.32	91.32	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2026-01-29	111.22	91.30	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2026-01-28	111.99	90.02	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2026-01-27	112.84	89.11	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-01-26	112.27	89.69	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-01-23	112.68	89.74	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2026-01-22	114.97	90.28	+0.57	FAST ahead
2026-01-21	114.53	91.75	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-01-20	109.42	89.34	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2026-01-16	112.30	92.14	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2026-01-15	111.76	91.70	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2026-01-14	108.91	91.24	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2026-01-13	108.91	91.66	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-01-12	107.06	92.09	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2026-01-09	107.78	90.97	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-01-08	107.32	87.81	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2026-01-07	104.26	85.34	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2026-01-06	106.65	87.57	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2026-01-05	105.65	85.54	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2026-01-02	103.83	84.42	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-12-31	103.03	83.44	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-12-30	104.93	83.98	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-12-29	106.01	83.74	+0.56	FAST ahead
2025-12-26	106.70	83.80	+0.63	FAST ahead
2025-12-24	107.39	83.78	+0.71	FAST ahead
2025-12-23	107.11	83.44	+0.73	FAST ahead
2025-12-22	107.19	83.39	+0.75	FAST ahead
2025-12-19	108.73	82.62	+1.00	FAST ahead
2025-12-18	108.70	83.78	+0.86	FAST ahead
2025-12-17	107.50	84.44	+0.67	FAST ahead
2025-12-16	108.70	84.42	+0.79	FAST ahead
2025-12-15	109.32	84.57	+0.84	FAST ahead
2025-12-12	107.86	84.64	+0.70	FAST ahead
2025-12-11	107.19	84.79	+0.62	FAST ahead
2025-12-10	105.08	84.01	+0.52	FAST ahead
2025-12-09	103.57	82.69	+0.54	FAST ahead
2025-12-08	104.75	84.23	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-12-05	106.55	85.77	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-12-04	107.19	86.36	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-12-03	105.83	87.35	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-12-02	103.90	86.90	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-12-01	103.08	87.93	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-11-28	103.72	88.50	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-11-26	103.47	88.42	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-11-25	102.93	88.23	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-11-24	101.64	87.03	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-11-21	102.46	86.79	-0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-11-20	100.51	84.46	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-11-19	101.54	84.92	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-11-18	102.59	83.38	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-11-17	101.93	84.15	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-11-14	103.85	85.53	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-11-13	104.62	87.25	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-11-12	105.19	88.76	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-11-11	105.93	88.86	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-11-10	106.16	88.20	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-11-07	104.88	87.59	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-11-06	104.67	85.92	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-11-05	107.01	86.46	+0.50	FAST ahead
2025-11-04	106.03	88.31	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-11-03	105.37	89.00	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-10-31	105.65	88.82	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-10-30	106.68	89.58	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-10-29	105.49	89.02	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-10-28	106.88	91.27	-0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-10-27	109.22	86.54	+0.72	FAST ahead
2025-10-24	110.06	86.00	+0.86	FAST ahead
2025-10-23	110.37	85.42	+0.96	FAST ahead
2025-10-22	109.37	85.95	+0.82	FAST ahead
2025-10-21	111.22	87.15	+0.85	FAST ahead
2025-10-20	110.37	85.29	+1.00	FAST ahead
2025-10-17	109.01	85.16	+0.90	FAST ahead
2025-10-16	107.73	85.35	+0.77	FAST ahead
2025-10-15	108.45	85.68	+0.80	FAST ahead
2025-10-14	109.76	86.33	+0.85	FAST ahead
2025-10-13	108.68	85.53	+0.85	FAST ahead
2025-10-10	117.54	85.70	+1.58	FAST ahead
2025-10-09	119.92	85.80	+1.77	FAST ahead
2025-10-08	122.08	86.92	+1.83	FAST ahead
2025-10-07	121.82	86.78	+1.84	FAST ahead
2025-10-06	122.67	86.75	+1.92	FAST ahead
2025-10-03	122.93	89.25	+1.68	FAST ahead
2025-10-02	123.67	88.55	+1.83	FAST ahead
2025-10-01	122.52	87.86	+1.82	FAST ahead
2025-09-30	125.91	89.16	+1.96	FAST ahead
2025-09-29	125.47	88.30	+2.03	FAST ahead
2025-09-26	125.03	88.04	+2.05	FAST ahead
2025-09-25	122.85	87.57	+1.95	FAST ahead
2025-09-24	122.05	88.31	+1.82	FAST ahead
2025-09-23	123.21	88.69	+1.89	FAST ahead
2025-09-22	120.98	89.20	+1.68	FAST ahead
2025-09-19	122.16	89.30	+1.77	FAST ahead
2025-09-18	121.23	90.01	+1.64	FAST ahead
2025-09-17	120.98	90.18	+1.61	FAST ahead
2025-09-16	121.31	90.95	+1.57	FAST ahead
2025-09-15	122.62	91.95	+1.58	FAST ahead
2025-09-12	121.82	92.72	+1.45	FAST ahead
2025-09-11	121.51	94.93	+1.21	FAST ahead
2025-09-10	123.16	92.04	+1.63	FAST ahead
2025-09-09	122.98	93.05	+1.53	FAST ahead
2025-09-08	123.72	96.62	+1.25	FAST ahead
2025-09-05	123.21	95.90	+1.28	FAST ahead
2025-09-04	129.06	94.19	+1.89	FAST ahead
2025-09-03	127.14	93.48	+1.84	FAST ahead
2025-09-02	126.29	92.93	+1.84	FAST ahead
2025-08-29	127.50	94.20	+1.82	FAST ahead
2025-08-28	128.83	94.29	+1.93	FAST ahead
2025-08-27	128.88	94.60	+1.92	FAST ahead
2025-08-26	128.27	94.36	+1.92	FAST ahead
2025-08-25	129.06	94.50	+1.99	FAST ahead
2025-08-22	129.37	96.03	+1.88	FAST ahead
2025-08-21	126.16	93.69	+1.89	FAST ahead
2025-08-20	127.19	94.53	+1.90	FAST ahead
2025-08-19	128.11	94.74	+1.97	FAST ahead
2025-08-18	126.08	92.40	+2.08	FAST ahead
2025-08-15	125.49	93.83	+1.91	FAST ahead
2025-08-14	125.01	94.13	+1.86	FAST ahead
2025-08-13	126.34	94.97	+1.90	FAST ahead
2025-08-12	124.39	92.21	+2.05	FAST ahead
2025-08-11	122.82	91.30	+2.05	FAST ahead
2025-08-08	123.21	90.68	+2.17	FAST ahead
2025-08-07	121.90	90.10	+2.16	FAST ahead
2025-08-06	120.10	90.31	+2.01	FAST ahead
2025-08-05	116.66	90.66	+1.71	FAST ahead
2025-08-04	116.48	89.57	+1.83	FAST ahead
2025-08-01	116.66	88.43	+2.00	FAST ahead
2025-07-31	118.43	85.20	+2.56	FAST ahead
2025-07-30	119.15	85.48	+2.63	FAST ahead
2025-07-29	119.64	86.77	+2.57	FAST ahead
2025-07-28	120.15	86.56	+2.68	FAST ahead
2025-07-25	122.59	87.57	+2.83	FAST ahead
2025-07-24	123.06	87.60	+2.92	FAST ahead
2025-07-23	121.77	88.30	+2.78	FAST ahead
2025-07-22	120.87	87.57	+2.84	FAST ahead
2025-07-21	118.15	87.88	+2.60	FAST ahead
2025-07-18	118.25	87.57	+2.69	FAST ahead
2025-07-17	117.79	87.52	+2.70	FAST ahead
2025-07-16	117.07	87.51	+2.68	FAST ahead
2025-07-15	115.87	87.30	+2.64	FAST ahead
2025-07-14	115.71	88.71	+2.47	FAST ahead
2025-07-11	111.09	89.07	+1.95	FAST ahead
2025-07-10	111.84	90.59	+1.85	FAST ahead
2025-07-09	111.42	90.52	+1.83	FAST ahead
2025-07-08	109.99	89.09	+1.89	FAST ahead
2025-07-07	109.04	89.17	+1.79	FAST ahead
2025-07-03	110.73	91.15	+1.73	FAST ahead
2025-07-02	109.58	90.77	+1.66	FAST ahead
2025-07-01	110.04	91.49	+1.63	FAST ahead
2025-06-30	107.83	88.41	+1.83	FAST ahead
2025-06-27	107.73	89.02	+1.74	FAST ahead
2025-06-26	106.03	88.03	+1.70	FAST ahead
2025-06-25	105.57	88.48	+1.59	FAST ahead
2025-06-24	106.62	89.01	+1.65	FAST ahead
2025-06-23	106.03	88.52	+1.67	FAST ahead
2025-06-20	105.11	85.87	+1.97	FAST ahead
2025-06-18	106.52	85.35	+2.26	FAST ahead
2025-06-17	106.68	85.24	+2.33	FAST ahead
2025-06-16	108.45	86.46	+2.40	FAST ahead
2025-06-13	108.27	86.49	+2.40	FAST ahead
2025-06-12	110.04	91.72	+1.84	FAST ahead
2025-06-11	109.50	91.96	+1.75	FAST ahead
2025-06-10	109.68	92.89	+1.64	FAST ahead
2025-06-09	108.16	92.17	+1.57	FAST ahead
2025-06-06	107.98	92.05	+1.58	FAST ahead
2025-06-05	106.14	92.15	+1.33	FAST ahead
2025-06-04	104.96	93.27	+1.00	FAST ahead
2025-06-03	105.75	92.12	+1.29	FAST ahead
2025-06-02	105.03	91.52	+1.30	FAST ahead
2025-05-30	106.14	92.39	+1.32	FAST ahead
2025-05-29	105.78	91.60	+1.40	FAST ahead
2025-05-28	106.47	91.34	+1.55	FAST ahead
2025-05-27	106.91	92.52	+1.43	FAST ahead
2025-05-23	104.36	90.77	+1.37	FAST ahead
2025-05-22	104.53	90.88	+1.38	FAST ahead
2025-05-21	104.57	91.14	+1.36	FAST ahead
2025-05-20	105.16	92.47	+1.24	FAST ahead
2025-05-19	106.75	93.21	+1.35	FAST ahead
2025-05-16	106.59	93.60	+1.27	FAST ahead
2025-05-15	105.11	93.07	+1.15	FAST ahead
2025-05-14	103.35	90.48	+1.33	FAST ahead
2025-05-13	102.66	91.68	+1.04	FAST ahead
2025-05-12	102.89	91.96	+1.04	FAST ahead
2025-05-09	100.90	90.60	+0.97	FAST ahead
2025-05-08	101.78	91.04	+1.04	FAST ahead
2025-05-07	100.77	90.53	+0.97	FAST ahead
2025-05-06	100.77	90.77	+0.93	FAST ahead
2025-05-05	105.80	92.65	+1.36	FAST ahead
2025-05-02	105.42	92.60	+1.31	FAST ahead
2025-05-01	103.61	91.06	+1.31	FAST ahead
2025-04-30	103.94	90.87	+1.39	FAST ahead
2025-04-29	103.06	89.64	+1.48	FAST ahead
2025-04-28	102.84	85.54	+2.17	FAST ahead
2025-04-25	103.63	85.39	+2.34	FAST ahead
2025-04-24	105.39	86.12	+2.51	FAST ahead
2025-04-23	102.94	85.29	+2.32	FAST ahead
2025-04-22	104.54	85.48	+2.57	FAST ahead
2025-04-21	103.07	82.99	+2.86	FAST ahead
2025-04-17	104.72	85.84	+2.60	FAST ahead
2025-04-16	103.27	85.30	+2.51	FAST ahead
2025-04-15	104.81	86.74	+2.51	FAST ahead
2025-04-14	104.36	87.81	+2.26	FAST ahead
2025-04-11	103.52	86.72	+2.35	FAST ahead
2025-04-10	97.29	84.95	+1.65	FAST ahead
2025-04-09	98.16	86.58	+1.48	FAST ahead
2025-04-08	91.40	80.73	+1.45	FAST ahead
2025-04-07	92.63	83.12	+1.18	FAST ahead
2025-04-04	95.53	85.50	+1.22	FAST ahead
2025-04-03	100.14	87.72	+1.58	FAST ahead
2025-04-02	100.14	91.06	+0.95	FAST ahead
2025-04-01	99.63	90.27	+1.01	FAST ahead
2025-03-31	99.55	89.91	+1.06	FAST ahead
2025-03-28	97.78	87.48	+1.22	FAST ahead
2025-03-27	99.78	89.00	+1.27	FAST ahead
2025-03-26	98.96	88.69	+1.19	FAST ahead
2025-03-25	98.96	87.85	+1.35	FAST ahead
2025-03-24	98.77	88.25	+1.24	FAST ahead
2025-03-21	95.93	86.11	+1.16	FAST ahead
2025-03-20	96.93	86.53	+1.25	FAST ahead
2025-03-19	98.15	86.24	+1.52	FAST ahead
2025-03-18	97.68	86.40	+1.41	FAST ahead
2025-03-17	97.65	88.13	+1.07	FAST ahead
2025-03-14	96.61	88.01	+0.92	FAST ahead
2025-03-13	94.60	88.09	+0.55	FAST ahead
2025-03-12	97.55	90.08	+0.69	FAST ahead
2025-03-11	99.29	90.90	+0.83	FAST ahead
2025-03-10	102.44	92.13	+1.13	FAST ahead
2025-03-07	102.67	93.63	+0.89	FAST ahead
2025-03-06	99.94	92.72	+0.60	FAST ahead
2025-03-05	95.62	93.29	-0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-03-04	95.29	91.48	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-03-03	95.48	91.86	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-02-28	97.21	93.28	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-02-27	95.11	91.54	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-02-26	94.85	92.59	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2025-02-25	95.76	90.90	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-02-24	95.99	88.54	+0.66	FAST ahead
2025-02-21	95.99	88.72	+0.62	FAST ahead
2025-02-20	96.46	90.13	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-02-19	97.01	90.60	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-02-18	96.03	90.89	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-02-14	95.99	91.89	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-02-13	96.01	92.99	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-02-12	94.58	91.54	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-02-11	95.42	93.05	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-02-10	94.63	92.48	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-02-07	94.79	92.84	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-02-06	95.83	94.04	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-02-05	94.40	93.85	-0.61	SHW ahead
2025-02-04	93.95	92.08	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-02-03	94.63	92.09	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-01-31	94.02	92.22	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-01-30	96.25	94.13	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-01-29	95.10	92.80	-0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-01-28	96.01	93.77	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-01-27	97.91	93.77	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-01-24	96.96	92.74	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-01-23	96.87	92.98	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-01-22	97.05	92.12	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-01-21	97.68	93.09	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-01-17	97.66	91.15	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-01-16	95.98	91.20	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-01-15	95.34	89.33	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-01-14	94.66	87.97	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-01-13	93.57	86.55	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-01-10	91.95	85.01	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-01-08	93.63	86.91	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-01-07	92.82	86.11	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-01-06	92.39	86.99	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-01-03	92.03	86.66	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-01-02	91.28	85.79	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-12-31	92.31	87.53	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2024-12-30	92.32	87.23	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2024-12-27	93.73	88.39	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2024-12-26	95.53	88.97	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-12-24	96.42	89.23	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2024-12-23	95.61	88.79	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-12-20	96.05	88.96	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-12-19	95.03	88.16	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-12-18	95.83	89.78	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2024-12-17	99.67	93.42	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2024-12-16	100.31	93.99	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2024-12-13	100.73	93.86	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-12-12	101.46	94.46	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-12-11	101.75	95.77	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2024-12-10	102.40	95.68	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-12-09	103.11	96.93	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2024-12-06	104.04	99.12	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2024-12-05	104.96	99.20	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2024-12-04	105.47	100.96	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2024-12-03	106.30	101.79	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2024-12-02	106.12	101.86	-0.09	near the usual relationship
2024-11-29	107.27	102.33	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2024-11-27	107.46	101.44	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2024-11-26	107.96	102.00	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2024-11-25	107.51	102.92	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2024-11-22	106.65	99.98	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2024-11-21	105.73	98.70	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2024-11-20	105.03	95.70	+0.70	FAST ahead
2024-11-19	104.74	96.17	+0.57	FAST ahead
2024-11-18	105.01	96.65	+0.54	FAST ahead
2024-11-15	105.07	97.59	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-11-14	105.47	100.03	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2024-11-13	107.34	99.72	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-11-12	107.19	98.79	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-11-11	108.28	100.23	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-11-08	106.97	99.56	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-11-07	106.68	98.88	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-11-06	107.28	98.04	+0.59	FAST ahead
2024-11-05	100.24	97.39	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2024-11-04	99.90	96.41	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-11-01	100.42	92.17	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-10-31	100.36	92.38	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-10-30	100.56	93.18	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-10-29	99.63	93.11	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2024-10-28	98.42	93.54	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2024-10-25	97.37	92.45	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2024-10-24	97.07	93.11	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2024-10-23	97.47	93.40	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2024-10-22	98.25	93.05	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2024-10-21	99.83	98.30	-0.56	SHW ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	-0.78	SHW ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Nov 6, 2024 (FAST +7.0%, SHW +0.7%); Sep 5, 2025 (FAST -4.5%, SHW +1.8%); Oct 13, 2025 (FAST -7.5%, SHW -0.2%); Oct 28, 2025 (FAST -2.1%, SHW +5.5%). Upcoming earnings: SHW Oct 27, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

1 simulated trade to Oct 20, 2026: -10.31% per trade on average after costs, 0 won.

Legs	Entered	Exited	Why	Days	Before costs	Costs + borrow	After costs
Long SHW · Short FAST	Mar 2, 2022	Mar 8, 2022	divergence stop	6	-$980.85	-$44.68	-$1,031.16 (-10.31%)

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

FAST and SHW at a glance

FAST Fastenal Company

Listing: Nasdaq · SEC CIK 815556
Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials · SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply
Market value: $58.5B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 89800
Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials · SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply
Market value: $80.5B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
LOW / SHW	Watchlist	SHW by 1.60 sd	RETAIL: Building Materials
HD / SHW	Watchlist	SHW by 1.29 sd	RETAIL: Building Materials
FAST / TSCO	Watchlist	FAST by 1.04 sd	SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply
SHW / TSCO	Watchlist	SHW by 0.87 sd	SIC 5200 Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.