Restaurants

Starbucks Corporation vs Yum! Brands Inc.

WatchlistSBUX / YUMPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($112B vs $41B) in Nasdaq's "Restaurants" industry; SEC SIC 5810 / 5812 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.31 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.95 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

SBUX is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	SBUX	YUM	Larger
2025	$37.2B	$8.2B	SBUX
2024	$36.2B	$7.5B	SBUX
2023	$36.0B	$7.1B	SBUX
2022	$32.3B	$6.8B	SBUX
2021	$29.1B	$6.6B	SBUX
2020	$23.5B	$5.7B	SBUX

SBUX led in every year with figures for both. Market value: SBUX $111.6B, YUM $40.9B.

Stock leadership

SBUX is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

SBUX leads YUM by 0.56 standard deviations: +4.7% over its usual price ratio. 3 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
SBUX	-1.3%	+2.4%	+18.6%
YUM	+3.7%	-3.9%	+4.0%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.30 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.95 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 23.10 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

SBUX Starbucks Corporation YUM Yum! Brands Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: SBUX relative to YUM, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: SBUX ahead; below 0: YUM ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	SBUX index	YUM index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	105.24	115.03	+0.56	SBUX ahead
2026-10-21	102.31	112.64	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-10-20	102.61	112.91	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-10-19	101.06	111.59	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-10-16	100.70	112.10	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-10-15	100.04	112.33	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2026-10-14	96.29	109.25	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2026-10-13	95.00	109.53	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2026-10-12	95.30	109.29	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2026-10-09	93.71	107.86	-0.02	near the usual relationship
2026-10-08	96.25	106.50	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-10-07	96.63	104.53	+0.73	SBUX ahead
2026-10-06	99.25	104.15	+1.10	SBUX ahead
2026-10-05	97.51	102.01	+1.14	SBUX ahead
2026-10-02	97.80	101.38	+1.26	SBUX ahead
2026-10-01	97.98	101.80	+1.24	SBUX ahead
2026-09-30	97.03	101.54	+1.17	SBUX ahead
2026-09-29	98.54	102.58	+1.24	SBUX ahead
2026-09-28	98.38	102.99	+1.18	SBUX ahead
2026-09-25	97.96	103.25	+1.11	SBUX ahead
2026-09-24	96.71	102.29	+1.08	SBUX ahead
2026-09-23	97.21	104.74	+0.87	SBUX ahead
2026-09-22	98.21	104.05	+1.07	SBUX ahead
2026-09-21	98.00	103.77	+1.09	SBUX ahead
2026-09-18	98.96	102.77	+1.33	SBUX ahead
2026-09-17	99.82	101.10	+1.64	SBUX ahead
2026-09-16	100.52	102.75	+1.54	SBUX ahead
2026-09-15	99.73	104.84	+1.22	SBUX ahead
2026-09-14	102.30	108.98	+1.07	SBUX ahead
2026-09-11	101.96	104.92	+1.50	SBUX ahead
2026-09-10	102.46	107.16	+1.31	SBUX ahead
2026-09-09	103.30	108.11	+1.32	SBUX ahead
2026-09-08	105.34	111.35	+1.21	SBUX ahead
2026-09-04	107.88	112.24	+1.41	SBUX ahead
2026-09-03	109.27	113.61	+1.43	SBUX ahead
2026-09-02	110.20	112.66	+1.65	SBUX ahead
2026-09-01	109.61	113.23	+1.54	SBUX ahead
2026-08-31	109.72	114.18	+1.46	SBUX ahead
2026-08-28	111.37	114.59	+1.61	SBUX ahead
2026-08-27	110.76	112.27	+1.81	SBUX ahead
2026-08-26	112.03	115.00	+1.68	SBUX ahead
2026-08-25	109.21	116.38	+1.22	SBUX ahead
2026-08-24	111.00	117.19	+1.35	SBUX ahead
2026-08-21	110.57	113.94	+1.67	SBUX ahead
2026-08-20	107.38	113.45	+1.37	SBUX ahead
2026-08-19	108.41	108.68	+2.05	SBUX ahead
2026-08-18	109.47	107.89	+2.30	SBUX ahead
2026-08-17	111.44	108.10	+2.54	SBUX ahead
2026-08-14	111.20	110.31	+2.28	SBUX ahead
2026-08-13	112.09	112.35	+2.16	SBUX ahead
2026-08-12	112.03	111.97	+2.22	SBUX ahead
2026-08-11	110.14	107.81	+2.54	SBUX ahead
2026-08-10	108.06	108.24	+2.25	SBUX ahead
2026-08-07	109.03	112.28	+1.90	SBUX ahead
2026-08-06	108.59	113.41	+1.72	SBUX ahead
2026-08-05	109.46	113.48	+1.84	SBUX ahead
2026-08-04	108.40	109.99	+2.16	SBUX ahead
2026-08-03	106.74	110.82	+1.86	SBUX ahead
2026-07-31	108.68	114.16	+1.71	SBUX ahead
2026-07-30	109.30	116.93	+1.46	SBUX ahead
2026-07-29	107.54	113.15	+1.71	SBUX ahead
2026-07-28	106.46	111.92	+1.73	SBUX ahead
2026-07-27	107.03	110.08	+2.06	SBUX ahead
2026-07-24	106.62	110.91	+1.91	SBUX ahead
2026-07-23	106.58	109.76	+2.07	SBUX ahead
2026-07-22	107.37	109.91	+2.19	SBUX ahead
2026-07-21	107.86	109.61	+2.32	SBUX ahead
2026-07-20	108.23	109.76	+2.39	SBUX ahead
2026-07-17	108.93	110.17	+2.46	SBUX ahead
2026-07-16	111.91	113.28	+2.48	SBUX ahead
2026-07-15	108.54	113.63	+1.98	SBUX ahead
2026-07-14	109.63	117.81	+1.59	SBUX ahead
2026-07-13	110.84	120.41	+1.43	SBUX ahead
2026-07-10	109.47	121.80	+1.07	SBUX ahead
2026-07-09	109.88	120.94	+1.24	SBUX ahead
2026-07-08	107.26	123.07	+0.59	SBUX ahead
2026-07-07	106.99	124.74	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2026-07-06	105.44	123.62	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2026-07-02	107.67	122.69	+0.70	SBUX ahead
2026-07-01	106.76	120.35	+0.87	SBUX ahead
2026-06-30	105.52	119.06	+0.86	SBUX ahead
2026-06-29	107.46	117.85	+1.31	SBUX ahead
2026-06-26	108.01	116.49	+1.58	SBUX ahead
2026-06-25	106.53	112.56	+1.92	SBUX ahead
2026-06-24	106.91	113.96	+1.79	SBUX ahead
2026-06-23	104.35	112.91	+1.55	SBUX ahead
2026-06-22	103.42	112.27	+1.50	SBUX ahead
2026-06-18	103.93	113.20	+1.45	SBUX ahead
2026-06-17	103.08	114.75	+1.10	SBUX ahead
2026-06-16	105.00	117.43	+1.02	SBUX ahead
2026-06-15	104.90	115.19	+1.31	SBUX ahead
2026-06-12	106.40	114.93	+1.58	SBUX ahead
2026-06-11	105.62	114.15	+1.57	SBUX ahead
2026-06-10	101.98	112.52	+1.25	SBUX ahead
2026-06-09	100.59	112.93	+0.98	SBUX ahead
2026-06-08	97.91	109.76	+1.01	SBUX ahead
2026-06-05	98.40	112.36	+0.71	SBUX ahead
2026-06-04	97.21	110.29	+0.82	SBUX ahead
2026-06-03	99.02	110.55	+1.09	SBUX ahead
2026-06-02	98.63	109.17	+1.24	SBUX ahead
2026-06-01	99.66	109.86	+1.31	SBUX ahead
2026-05-29	102.40	110.19	+1.72	SBUX ahead
2026-05-28	104.04	111.74	+1.77	SBUX ahead
2026-05-27	105.43	113.22	+1.79	SBUX ahead
2026-05-26	104.73	114.70	+1.48	SBUX ahead
2026-05-22	106.47	115.55	+1.65	SBUX ahead
2026-05-21	107.53	114.93	+1.92	SBUX ahead
2026-05-20	109.98	113.73	+2.51	SBUX ahead
2026-05-19	109.85	113.35	+2.59	SBUX ahead
2026-05-18	110.08	113.44	+2.66	SBUX ahead
2026-05-15	110.30	111.69	+3.03	SBUX ahead
2026-05-14	109.87	112.18	+2.94	SBUX ahead
2026-05-13	109.41	111.54	+3.04	SBUX ahead
2026-05-12	110.06	113.85	+2.82	SBUX ahead
2026-05-11	109.19	111.93	+3.05	SBUX ahead
2026-05-08	108.35	113.17	+2.74	SBUX ahead
2026-05-07	107.66	117.11	+2.00	SBUX ahead
2026-05-06	109.91	116.20	+2.58	SBUX ahead
2026-05-05	108.36	114.61	+2.62	SBUX ahead
2026-05-04	108.40	114.99	+2.60	SBUX ahead
2026-05-01	109.36	117.94	+2.30	SBUX ahead
2026-04-30	108.77	118.90	+2.06	SBUX ahead
2026-04-29	108.94	119.04	+2.09	SBUX ahead
2026-04-28	100.45	116.53	+0.92	SBUX ahead
2026-04-27	101.08	115.57	+1.22	SBUX ahead
2026-04-24	101.89	119.37	+0.74	SBUX ahead
2026-04-23	102.79	119.71	+0.86	SBUX ahead
2026-04-22	102.77	118.46	+1.07	SBUX ahead
2026-04-21	100.99	119.42	+0.57	SBUX ahead
2026-04-20	102.18	120.52	+0.63	SBUX ahead
2026-04-17	103.26	121.24	+0.72	SBUX ahead
2026-04-16	101.57	118.81	+0.80	SBUX ahead
2026-04-15	101.55	120.61	+0.50	SBUX ahead
2026-04-14	101.68	120.33	+0.58	SBUX ahead
2026-04-13	100.66	120.23	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2026-04-10	99.75	120.47	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2026-04-09	100.08	119.75	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2026-04-08	100.38	119.48	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-04-07	98.32	116.88	+0.51	SBUX ahead
2026-04-06	97.87	117.20	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-04-02	93.32	116.25	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-04-01	93.38	114.47	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2026-03-31	92.51	115.80	-0.52	YUM ahead
2026-03-30	89.55	115.13	-1.05	YUM ahead
2026-03-27	89.64	114.66	-0.96	YUM ahead
2026-03-26	94.20	116.29	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2026-03-25	95.72	118.54	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2026-03-24	94.98	118.74	-0.52	YUM ahead
2026-03-23	96.89	118.08	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2026-03-20	95.57	116.49	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2026-03-19	98.96	116.37	+0.65	SBUX ahead
2026-03-18	95.68	118.49	-0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-03-17	100.75	121.91	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2026-03-16	101.01	120.49	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-03-13	102.39	119.46	+0.78	SBUX ahead
2026-03-12	103.45	118.02	+1.21	SBUX ahead
2026-03-11	104.75	116.63	+1.67	SBUX ahead
2026-03-10	104.06	118.57	+1.22	SBUX ahead
2026-03-09	103.03	119.05	+0.95	SBUX ahead
2026-03-06	102.22	119.16	+0.76	SBUX ahead
2026-03-05	101.91	118.14	+0.84	SBUX ahead
2026-03-04	100.32	118.41	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-03-03	99.83	119.52	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2026-03-02	99.92	121.34	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2026-02-27	101.22	125.24	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2026-02-26	101.28	123.42	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2026-02-25	101.13	123.06	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2026-02-24	99.66	123.59	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-02-23	97.87	123.97	-0.74	YUM ahead
2026-02-20	100.67	121.64	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2026-02-19	98.93	121.75	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2026-02-18	98.88	121.33	-0.29	near the usual relationship
2026-02-17	98.50	120.05	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2026-02-13	96.85	119.59	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2026-02-12	99.92	121.61	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2026-02-11	102.35	118.46	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-02-10	100.71	118.31	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2026-02-09	102.21	118.34	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-02-06	102.70	121.35	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2026-02-05	99.20	119.97	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2026-02-04	100.13	118.84	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2026-02-03	96.08	118.22	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2026-02-02	94.68	116.31	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2026-01-30	94.95	115.81	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2026-01-29	96.94	115.80	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2026-01-28	98.27	114.60	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2026-01-27	98.84	114.70	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2026-01-26	99.47	113.82	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2026-01-23	100.81	113.93	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-01-22	98.96	114.34	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-01-21	99.58	115.00	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-01-20	96.72	114.10	-0.02	near the usual relationship
2026-01-16	96.02	119.36	-0.53	YUM ahead
2026-01-15	96.32	119.94	-0.56	YUM ahead
2026-01-14	94.12	117.03	-0.55	YUM ahead
2026-01-13	93.52	116.45	-0.57	YUM ahead
2026-01-12	92.90	116.87	-0.67	YUM ahead
2026-01-09	91.78	115.83	-0.71	YUM ahead
2026-01-08	91.06	114.31	-0.66	YUM ahead
2026-01-07	89.52	112.08	-0.65	YUM ahead
2026-01-06	92.38	112.77	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-01-05	89.38	111.93	-0.66	YUM ahead
2026-01-02	86.71	112.08	-0.96	YUM ahead
2025-12-31	86.96	112.67	-0.99	YUM ahead
2025-12-30	88.03	113.34	-0.94	YUM ahead
2025-12-29	88.36	113.41	-0.91	YUM ahead
2025-12-26	87.86	114.13	-1.03	YUM ahead
2025-12-24	87.33	114.93	-1.17	YUM ahead
2025-12-23	86.60	115.09	-1.27	YUM ahead
2025-12-22	88.98	115.64	-1.07	YUM ahead
2025-12-19	91.21	114.51	-0.75	YUM ahead
2025-12-18	92.34	115.22	-0.70	YUM ahead
2025-12-17	87.99	114.05	-1.06	YUM ahead
2025-12-16	87.86	112.48	-0.95	YUM ahead
2025-12-15	88.19	114.56	-1.10	YUM ahead
2025-12-12	88.14	112.50	-0.94	YUM ahead
2025-12-11	87.51	110.32	-0.83	YUM ahead
2025-12-10	86.59	107.16	-0.67	YUM ahead
2025-12-09	84.96	106.53	-0.80	YUM ahead
2025-12-08	86.13	106.15	-0.64	YUM ahead
2025-12-05	87.90	107.96	-0.62	YUM ahead
2025-12-04	87.77	108.63	-0.69	YUM ahead
2025-12-03	89.95	110.61	-0.64	YUM ahead
2025-12-02	87.98	109.94	-0.79	YUM ahead
2025-12-01	87.68	112.19	-1.02	YUM ahead
2025-11-28	89.95	114.11	-0.95	YUM ahead
2025-11-26	89.53	114.55	-1.03	YUM ahead
2025-11-25	88.71	114.69	-1.13	YUM ahead
2025-11-24	86.06	112.52	-1.24	YUM ahead
2025-11-21	88.14	113.93	-1.15	YUM ahead
2025-11-20	85.32	111.13	-1.23	YUM ahead
2025-11-19	86.41	110.46	-1.07	YUM ahead
2025-11-18	86.05	110.84	-1.14	YUM ahead
2025-11-17	86.42	110.25	-1.07	YUM ahead
2025-11-14	87.55	110.99	-1.02	YUM ahead
2025-11-13	89.26	111.51	-0.89	YUM ahead
2025-11-12	90.11	111.25	-0.79	YUM ahead
2025-11-11	89.24	112.27	-0.97	YUM ahead
2025-11-10	87.36	110.42	-1.02	YUM ahead
2025-11-07	88.36	111.06	-0.98	YUM ahead
2025-11-06	84.90	109.94	-1.25	YUM ahead
2025-11-05	85.58	111.26	-1.30	YUM ahead
2025-11-04	82.20	111.38	-1.68	YUM ahead
2025-11-03	83.60	103.81	-0.91	YUM ahead
2025-10-31	83.51	102.93	-0.85	YUM ahead
2025-10-30	85.86	103.57	-0.66	YUM ahead
2025-10-29	86.92	103.66	-0.57	YUM ahead
2025-10-28	88.22	105.08	-0.56	YUM ahead
2025-10-27	90.07	106.49	-0.50	YUM ahead
2025-10-24	88.90	106.77	-0.65	YUM ahead
2025-10-23	88.23	109.01	-0.91	YUM ahead
2025-10-22	88.29	109.76	-0.97	YUM ahead
2025-10-21	88.70	110.62	-1.00	YUM ahead
2025-10-20	87.29	110.34	-1.13	YUM ahead
2025-10-17	88.15	108.18	-0.88	YUM ahead
2025-10-16	87.09	106.78	-0.88	YUM ahead
2025-10-15	85.56	107.63	-1.11	YUM ahead
2025-10-14	83.80	107.23	-1.27	YUM ahead
2025-10-13	82.64	104.62	-1.19	YUM ahead
2025-10-10	81.02	105.47	-1.45	YUM ahead
2025-10-09	82.38	106.27	-1.38	YUM ahead
2025-10-08	82.65	108.76	-1.57	YUM ahead
2025-10-07	83.94	109.27	-1.49	YUM ahead
2025-10-06	84.79	110.81	-1.54	YUM ahead
2025-10-03	89.24	112.23	-1.20	YUM ahead
2025-10-02	89.55	112.72	-1.22	YUM ahead
2025-10-01	87.15	114.09	-1.59	YUM ahead
2025-09-30	87.36	113.20	-1.51	YUM ahead
2025-09-29	88.43	114.65	-1.53	YUM ahead
2025-09-26	86.11	113.73	-1.72	YUM ahead
2025-09-25	86.57	112.02	-1.55	YUM ahead
2025-09-24	87.02	111.31	-1.45	YUM ahead
2025-09-23	88.49	111.30	-1.31	YUM ahead
2025-09-22	88.07	111.17	-1.35	YUM ahead
2025-09-19	87.32	108.48	-1.21	YUM ahead
2025-09-18	86.14	108.19	-1.32	YUM ahead
2025-09-17	85.94	110.42	-1.55	YUM ahead
2025-09-16	87.12	110.23	-1.42	YUM ahead
2025-09-15	85.38	110.90	-1.68	YUM ahead
2025-09-12	84.57	111.34	-1.83	YUM ahead
2025-09-11	85.05	111.07	-1.77	YUM ahead
2025-09-10	85.58	108.75	-1.53	YUM ahead
2025-09-09	86.54	108.57	-1.42	YUM ahead
2025-09-08	86.92	110.22	-1.53	YUM ahead
2025-09-05	88.22	107.68	-1.17	YUM ahead
2025-09-04	89.85	107.00	-0.94	YUM ahead
2025-09-03	90.10	107.66	-0.98	YUM ahead
2025-09-02	92.71	108.32	-0.77	YUM ahead
2025-08-29	91.07	109.46	-1.05	YUM ahead
2025-08-28	90.89	108.34	-0.98	YUM ahead
2025-08-27	90.52	108.24	-1.02	YUM ahead
2025-08-26	89.46	109.50	-1.25	YUM ahead
2025-08-25	88.61	109.40	-1.35	YUM ahead
2025-08-22	91.26	110.13	-1.13	YUM ahead
2025-08-21	91.45	110.23	-1.13	YUM ahead
2025-08-20	92.43	111.22	-1.12	YUM ahead
2025-08-19	93.90	113.21	-1.15	YUM ahead
2025-08-18	95.56	111.22	-0.80	YUM ahead
2025-08-15	93.56	110.36	-0.94	YUM ahead
2025-08-14	96.10	109.31	-0.57	YUM ahead
2025-08-13	97.25	107.83	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-08-12	96.42	105.82	-0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-08-11	94.73	105.21	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-08-08	95.13	105.22	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-08-07	93.99	106.17	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-08-06	91.89	105.27	-0.58	YUM ahead
2025-08-05	93.14	103.90	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-08-04	92.71	109.48	-0.86	YUM ahead
2025-08-01	89.69	108.26	-1.06	YUM ahead
2025-07-31	92.07	107.36	-0.73	YUM ahead
2025-07-30	95.79	109.47	-0.54	YUM ahead
2025-07-29	95.99	108.13	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-07-28	96.73	107.46	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-07-25	97.50	109.26	-0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-07-24	96.76	108.61	-0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-07-23	99.05	110.07	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-07-22	100.10	110.62	-0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-07-21	95.68	108.37	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-07-18	96.86	110.94	-0.52	YUM ahead
2025-07-17	96.23	110.29	-0.52	YUM ahead
2025-07-16	95.53	108.84	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-07-15	95.50	107.99	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-07-14	96.47	109.61	-0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-07-11	98.04	111.56	-0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-07-10	98.25	113.47	-0.56	YUM ahead
2025-07-09	98.36	112.35	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-07-08	98.04	112.11	-0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-07-07	96.70	111.98	-0.58	YUM ahead
2025-07-03	97.52	111.72	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-07-02	97.25	111.85	-0.51	YUM ahead
2025-07-01	98.02	111.99	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-06-30	94.62	110.36	-0.63	YUM ahead
2025-06-27	95.12	110.53	-0.60	YUM ahead
2025-06-26	94.84	109.52	-0.54	YUM ahead
2025-06-25	94.07	109.61	-0.62	YUM ahead
2025-06-24	94.49	106.28	-0.30	near the usual relationship
2025-06-23	95.35	105.30	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-06-20	96.16	103.57	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-06-18	95.29	103.05	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-06-17	94.58	104.26	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-06-16	96.53	105.71	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-06-13	96.30	107.25	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-06-12	97.40	107.22	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-06-11	98.50	106.81	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-06-10	94.41	107.19	-0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-06-09	93.63	106.61	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-06-06	92.57	107.86	-0.56	YUM ahead
2025-06-05	89.83	106.41	-0.70	YUM ahead
2025-06-04	90.99	107.25	-0.65	YUM ahead
2025-06-03	89.43	107.22	-0.80	YUM ahead
2025-06-02	87.97	107.72	-0.98	YUM ahead
2025-05-30	86.69	107.20	-1.06	YUM ahead
2025-05-29	86.79	107.28	-1.06	YUM ahead
2025-05-28	88.81	106.61	-0.80	YUM ahead
2025-05-27	89.85	107.31	-0.76	YUM ahead
2025-05-23	87.15	108.33	-1.09	YUM ahead
2025-05-22	86.71	108.36	-1.14	YUM ahead
2025-05-21	85.69	109.06	-1.29	YUM ahead
2025-05-20	88.38	110.99	-1.17	YUM ahead
2025-05-19	87.37	111.45	-1.30	YUM ahead
2025-05-16	88.36	110.28	-1.11	YUM ahead
2025-05-15	90.11	109.52	-0.88	YUM ahead
2025-05-14	89.36	108.11	-0.84	YUM ahead
2025-05-13	89.71	108.53	-0.83	YUM ahead
2025-05-12	88.47	109.33	-1.00	YUM ahead
2025-05-09	82.92	109.58	-1.56	YUM ahead
2025-05-08	84.87	110.21	-1.41	YUM ahead
2025-05-07	85.41	111.33	-1.44	YUM ahead
2025-05-06	85.48	110.43	-1.37	YUM ahead
2025-05-05	84.32	109.17	-1.38	YUM ahead
2025-05-02	87.45	111.07	-1.23	YUM ahead
2025-05-01	84.69	110.67	-1.48	YUM ahead
2025-04-30	82.66	112.04	-1.80	YUM ahead
2025-04-29	87.62	109.99	-1.16	YUM ahead
2025-04-28	86.64	110.04	-1.26	YUM ahead
2025-04-25	86.54	109.70	-1.25	YUM ahead
2025-04-24	86.60	109.91	-1.27	YUM ahead
2025-04-23	85.51	108.86	-1.30	YUM ahead
2025-04-22	84.42	108.03	-1.36	YUM ahead
2025-04-21	83.31	104.65	-1.20	YUM ahead
2025-04-17	84.16	106.73	-1.29	YUM ahead
2025-04-16	83.40	106.18	-1.33	YUM ahead
2025-04-15	86.44	107.76	-1.15	YUM ahead
2025-04-14	88.28	108.74	-1.05	YUM ahead
2025-04-11	88.22	107.99	-1.00	YUM ahead
2025-04-10	87.36	108.36	-1.12	YUM ahead
2025-04-09	91.57	108.33	-0.71	YUM ahead
2025-04-08	82.29	105.30	-1.41	YUM ahead
2025-04-07	82.61	107.94	-1.60	YUM ahead
2025-04-04	84.78	110.10	-1.56	YUM ahead
2025-04-03	91.14	120.24	-1.72	YUM ahead
2025-04-02	102.65	117.84	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-04-01	101.44	118.36	-0.63	YUM ahead
2025-03-31	101.29	117.20	-0.56	YUM ahead
2025-03-28	100.92	116.01	-0.50	YUM ahead
2025-03-27	102.08	117.41	-0.51	YUM ahead
2025-03-26	101.17	118.18	-0.65	YUM ahead
2025-03-25	99.01	116.03	-0.68	YUM ahead
2025-03-24	98.84	116.05	-0.70	YUM ahead
2025-03-21	100.24	116.74	-0.64	YUM ahead
2025-03-20	102.52	117.59	-0.50	YUM ahead
2025-03-19	102.43	117.31	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-03-18	101.49	117.15	-0.56	YUM ahead
2025-03-17	102.31	117.03	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-03-14	101.31	115.48	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-03-13	99.17	114.26	-0.55	YUM ahead
2025-03-12	101.91	114.99	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-03-11	102.83	116.71	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-03-10	104.42	117.74	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-03-07	109.95	121.05	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-03-06	108.91	118.61	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-03-05	115.33	118.69	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-03-04	115.72	117.98	+0.54	SBUX ahead
2025-03-03	119.18	116.88	+0.90	SBUX ahead
2025-02-28	119.59	116.46	+0.96	SBUX ahead
2025-02-27	118.23	114.48	+1.02	SBUX ahead
2025-02-26	116.69	112.83	+1.04	SBUX ahead
2025-02-25	118.33	114.81	+1.01	SBUX ahead
2025-02-24	116.88	111.89	+1.14	SBUX ahead
2025-02-21	115.40	110.78	+1.12	SBUX ahead
2025-02-20	117.04	112.43	+1.12	SBUX ahead
2025-02-19	116.16	110.44	+1.22	SBUX ahead
2025-02-18	116.72	109.58	+1.34	SBUX ahead
2025-02-14	116.22	110.16	+1.26	SBUX ahead
2025-02-13	116.69	110.78	+1.25	SBUX ahead
2025-02-12	116.73	109.12	+1.39	SBUX ahead
2025-02-11	114.65	109.22	+1.22	SBUX ahead
2025-02-10	115.09	110.34	+1.16	SBUX ahead
2025-02-07	115.86	106.92	+1.52	SBUX ahead
2025-02-06	115.34	107.25	+1.45	SBUX ahead
2025-02-05	115.91	97.75	+2.39	SBUX ahead
2025-02-04	114.21	97.91	+2.26	SBUX ahead
2025-02-03	111.69	97.94	+2.07	SBUX ahead
2025-01-31	111.19	97.19	+2.12	SBUX ahead
2025-01-30	112.56	97.36	+2.24	SBUX ahead
2025-01-29	112.12	96.20	+2.35	SBUX ahead
2025-01-28	103.69	96.25	+1.59	SBUX ahead
2025-01-27	103.28	97.48	+1.44	SBUX ahead
2025-01-24	102.03	95.52	+1.53	SBUX ahead
2025-01-23	101.19	94.59	+1.55	SBUX ahead
2025-01-22	100.92	94.00	+1.60	SBUX ahead
2025-01-21	101.18	93.62	+1.67	SBUX ahead
2025-01-17	98.23	93.33	+1.41	SBUX ahead
2025-01-16	97.51	94.02	+1.27	SBUX ahead
2025-01-15	96.12	93.67	+1.17	SBUX ahead
2025-01-14	96.11	92.88	+1.26	SBUX ahead
2025-01-13	96.56	92.15	+1.39	SBUX ahead
2025-01-10	95.26	91.79	+1.29	SBUX ahead
2025-01-08	95.62	95.14	+0.97	SBUX ahead
2025-01-07	95.87	95.74	+0.93	SBUX ahead
2025-01-06	96.17	96.95	+0.83	SBUX ahead
2025-01-03	95.60	99.38	+0.52	SBUX ahead
2025-01-02	95.18	99.47	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-12-31	94.23	99.92	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2024-12-30	93.54	99.44	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2024-12-27	95.26	100.71	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2024-12-26	94.86	101.29	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2024-12-24	92.84	100.54	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2024-12-23	90.29	99.69	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2024-12-20	90.84	98.58	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2024-12-19	91.66	97.09	+0.30	near the usual relationship
2024-12-18	92.83	97.91	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2024-12-17	95.10	100.34	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-12-16	96.16	100.58	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2024-12-13	100.60	102.03	+0.71	SBUX ahead
2024-12-12	101.01	103.25	+0.63	SBUX ahead
2024-12-11	101.63	103.18	+0.69	SBUX ahead
2024-12-10	101.36	102.94	+0.68	SBUX ahead
2024-12-09	102.55	103.58	+0.72	SBUX ahead
2024-12-06	103.38	102.50	+0.90	SBUX ahead
2024-12-05	102.47	102.87	+0.77	SBUX ahead
2024-12-04	103.99	102.90	+0.91	SBUX ahead
2024-12-03	104.88	102.57	+1.01	SBUX ahead
2024-12-02	104.82	103.55	+0.91	SBUX ahead
2024-11-29	105.80	103.48	+1.00	SBUX ahead
2024-11-27	104.82	103.77	+0.88	SBUX ahead
2024-11-26	103.97	103.25	+0.84	SBUX ahead
2024-11-25	105.16	102.07	+1.05	SBUX ahead
2024-11-22	105.84	100.74	+1.22	SBUX ahead
2024-11-21	103.33	99.96	+1.06	SBUX ahead
2024-11-20	101.47	98.96	+0.98	SBUX ahead
2024-11-19	101.56	98.41	+1.03	SBUX ahead
2024-11-18	103.68	99.81	+1.08	SBUX ahead
2024-11-15	101.63	99.49	+0.92	SBUX ahead
2024-11-14	102.47	101.84	+0.77	SBUX ahead
2024-11-13	103.06	100.74	+0.91	SBUX ahead
2024-11-12	102.02	100.25	+0.85	SBUX ahead
2024-11-11	103.58	101.75	+0.85	SBUX ahead
2024-11-08	100.73	102.19	+0.55	SBUX ahead
2024-11-07	99.26	102.08	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2024-11-06	99.22	100.07	+0.59	SBUX ahead
2024-11-05	100.26	100.34	+0.65	SBUX ahead
2024-11-04	100.20	98.88	+0.76	SBUX ahead
2024-11-01	102.10	98.56	+0.95	SBUX ahead
2024-10-31	100.89	97.68	+0.92	SBUX ahead
2024-10-30	100.50	99.34	+0.74	SBUX ahead
2024-10-29	100.57	99.78	+0.71	SBUX ahead
2024-10-28	101.22	100.44	+0.70	SBUX ahead
2024-10-25	100.49	99.08	+0.75	SBUX ahead
2024-10-24	100.32	99.17	+0.72	SBUX ahead
2024-10-23	100.84	99.81	+0.71	SBUX ahead
2024-10-22	99.98	99.32	+0.67	SBUX ahead
2024-10-21	99.60	99.80	+0.60	SBUX ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	+0.61	SBUX ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Feb 6, 2025 (SBUX -0.5%, YUM +9.7%); Apr 3, 2025 (SBUX -11.2%, YUM +2.0%). Upcoming earnings: SBUX Oct 29, 2026 (after-hours); YUM Nov 3, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

SBUX and YUM at a glance

SBUX Starbucks Corporation

Listing: Nasdaq · SEC CIK 829224
Industry: Restaurants · SIC 5810 Retail-Eating & Drinking Places
Market value: $111.6B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

YUM Yum! Brands Inc.

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1041061
Industry: Restaurants · SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places
Market value: $40.9B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
YUM / CMG	Watchlist	YUM by 2.50 sd	SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places
MCD / YUM	Watchlist	YUM by 1.89 sd	Restaurants
MCD / SBUX	Watchlist	SBUX by 1.30 sd	Restaurants

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.