McDonald's Corporation vs Yum! Brands Inc.
WatchlistMCD / YUMPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($172B vs $41B) in Nasdaq's "Restaurants" industry; SEC SIC 5812 / 5812 (same major group); #1 and #2 by market value ($172B vs $41B) with SEC SIC 5812 (Retail-Eating Places).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.56 (needs >= 0.60)
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.95 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 68.83 (needs <= 63)
Business leadership
MCD is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | MCD | YUM | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $26.9B | $8.2B | MCD |
| 2024 | $25.9B | $7.5B | MCD |
| 2023 | $25.5B | $7.1B | MCD |
| 2022 | $23.2B | $6.8B | MCD |
| 2021 | $23.2B | $6.6B | MCD |
| 2020 | $19.2B | $5.7B | MCD |
MCD led in every year with figures for both. Market value: MCD $171.7B, YUM $40.9B.
Stock leadership
YUM is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
YUM leads MCD by 1.89 standard deviations: +15.7% over its usual price ratio. 3 lead switches in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | -4.6% | -16.5% | -17.8% |
| YUM | +3.7% | -3.9% | +4.0% |
Relationship
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Fail
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.56 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.95 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Fail
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 68.83 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
MCD McDonald's Corporation YUM Yum! Brands Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: MCD relative to YUM, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: MCD ahead; below 0: YUM ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | MCD index | YUM index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 79.80 | 115.03 | -1.89 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 77.79 | 112.64 | -1.98 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 77.87 | 112.91 | -2.01 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-19 | 76.66 | 111.59 | -2.09 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-16 | 76.75 | 112.10 | -2.16 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 76.60 | 112.33 | -2.24 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 75.28 | 109.25 | -2.12 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 74.49 | 109.53 | -2.33 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 74.44 | 109.29 | -2.34 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 74.31 | 107.86 | -2.22 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 74.84 | 106.50 | -1.97 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 72.93 | 104.53 | -2.10 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 73.43 | 104.15 | -1.98 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 73.62 | 102.01 | -1.67 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 73.25 | 101.38 | -1.67 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 73.23 | 101.80 | -1.75 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-30 | 72.95 | 101.54 | -1.79 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-29 | 73.91 | 102.58 | -1.76 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-28 | 73.79 | 102.99 | -1.86 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-25 | 74.71 | 103.25 | -1.74 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 74.87 | 102.29 | -1.59 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-23 | 75.28 | 104.74 | -1.87 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-22 | 79.08 | 104.05 | -1.06 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 78.30 | 103.77 | -1.18 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-18 | 78.42 | 102.77 | -1.02 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-17 | 78.49 | 101.10 | -0.78 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-16 | 78.52 | 102.75 | -1.02 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-15 | 79.85 | 104.84 | -1.07 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-14 | 81.34 | 108.98 | -1.38 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-11 | 79.77 | 104.92 | -1.12 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-10 | 79.94 | 107.16 | -1.41 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-09 | 80.07 | 108.11 | -1.53 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 80.81 | 111.35 | -1.85 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-04 | 80.77 | 112.24 | -1.99 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-03 | 82.02 | 113.61 | -1.96 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-02 | 82.43 | 112.66 | -1.77 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-09-01 | 82.48 | 113.23 | -1.86 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 83.25 | 114.18 | -1.86 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-28 | 83.71 | 114.59 | -1.85 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 82.15 | 112.27 | -1.85 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 84.32 | 115.00 | -1.83 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 84.69 | 116.38 | -1.97 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 86.09 | 117.19 | -1.84 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-21 | 85.59 | 113.94 | -1.52 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-20 | 85.02 | 113.45 | -1.57 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-19 | 84.49 | 108.68 | -1.02 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-18 | 84.34 | 107.89 | -0.94 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-17 | 83.88 | 108.10 | -1.07 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-14 | 86.19 | 110.31 | -0.97 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-13 | 86.00 | 112.35 | -1.29 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-12 | 87.09 | 111.97 | -1.05 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-11 | 86.60 | 107.81 | -0.57 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-10 | 86.47 | 108.24 | -0.66 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 86.71 | 112.28 | -1.18 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-06 | 87.27 | 113.41 | -1.25 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 86.56 | 113.48 | -1.39 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 84.77 | 109.99 | -1.24 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 83.79 | 110.82 | -1.55 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 85.49 | 114.16 | -1.71 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 84.80 | 116.93 | -2.23 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 85.77 | 113.15 | -1.56 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 86.25 | 111.92 | -1.32 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-27 | 85.50 | 110.08 | -1.21 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-24 | 83.64 | 110.91 | -1.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-23 | 83.02 | 109.76 | -1.65 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 83.26 | 109.91 | -1.65 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-21 | 83.37 | 109.61 | -1.60 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | 84.55 | 109.76 | -1.41 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-17 | 84.57 | 110.17 | -1.48 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 86.38 | 113.28 | -1.60 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-15 | 83.70 | 113.63 | -2.19 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 84.96 | 117.81 | -2.57 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 86.12 | 120.41 | -2.76 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 86.75 | 121.80 | -2.88 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-09 | 87.34 | 120.94 | -2.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-08 | 87.90 | 123.07 | -2.94 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 89.15 | 124.74 | -2.99 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-06 | 88.29 | 123.62 | -3.07 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-02 | 88.65 | 122.69 | -2.92 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-07-01 | 85.11 | 120.35 | -3.40 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-30 | 85.39 | 119.06 | -3.21 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-29 | 84.40 | 117.85 | -3.32 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-26 | 85.22 | 116.49 | -2.96 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-25 | 83.57 | 112.56 | -2.72 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-24 | 86.52 | 113.96 | -2.30 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-23 | 85.82 | 112.91 | -2.31 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-22 | 85.32 | 112.27 | -2.35 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-18 | 88.01 | 113.20 | -1.89 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-17 | 89.66 | 114.75 | -1.81 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 90.96 | 117.43 | -2.02 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-15 | 90.38 | 115.19 | -1.76 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-12 | 89.97 | 114.93 | -1.83 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 89.96 | 114.15 | -1.71 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-10 | 89.25 | 112.52 | -1.58 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 89.16 | 112.93 | -1.70 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 87.75 | 109.76 | -1.44 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 88.40 | 112.36 | -1.80 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-04 | 86.15 | 110.29 | -1.98 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 86.33 | 110.55 | -2.00 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 87.30 | 109.17 | -1.50 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 87.22 | 109.86 | -1.67 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 88.20 | 110.19 | -1.50 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 87.81 | 111.74 | -1.92 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-27 | 88.74 | 113.22 | -2.00 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-26 | 88.22 | 114.70 | -2.44 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-22 | 89.17 | 115.55 | -2.40 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-21 | 89.77 | 114.93 | -2.16 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-20 | 88.54 | 113.73 | -2.27 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-19 | 88.70 | 113.35 | -2.17 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-18 | 89.23 | 113.44 | -2.08 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-15 | 87.31 | 111.69 | -2.26 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-14 | 86.86 | 112.18 | -2.51 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-13 | 87.09 | 111.54 | -2.36 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-12 | 86.82 | 113.85 | -2.96 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-11 | 86.75 | 111.93 | -2.63 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-08 | 87.11 | 113.17 | -2.85 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-07 | 89.62 | 117.11 | -3.05 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-06 | 89.75 | 116.20 | -2.88 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 90.08 | 114.61 | -2.48 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 89.75 | 114.99 | -2.71 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 90.55 | 117.94 | -3.20 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 92.74 | 118.90 | -2.84 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 91.64 | 119.04 | -3.26 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 92.36 | 116.53 | -2.51 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 91.68 | 115.57 | -2.53 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 94.57 | 119.37 | -2.61 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 95.57 | 119.71 | -2.42 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 94.79 | 118.46 | -2.38 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 95.35 | 119.42 | -2.48 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-20 | 96.96 | 120.52 | -2.29 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-17 | 98.36 | 121.24 | -2.08 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-16 | 96.97 | 118.81 | -1.93 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-15 | 96.75 | 120.61 | -2.46 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-14 | 95.79 | 120.33 | -2.73 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-13 | 96.19 | 120.23 | -2.63 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 96.56 | 120.47 | -2.62 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 97.79 | 119.75 | -2.09 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-08 | 96.98 | 119.48 | -2.30 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 96.30 | 116.88 | -1.85 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 97.85 | 117.20 | -1.45 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 97.02 | 116.25 | -1.46 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 97.07 | 114.47 | -0.97 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 98.18 | 115.80 | -0.98 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 97.46 | 115.13 | -1.02 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 96.63 | 114.66 | -1.16 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 97.59 | 116.29 | -1.28 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 98.46 | 118.54 | -1.59 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 97.25 | 118.74 | -2.03 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 97.44 | 118.08 | -1.80 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 97.56 | 116.49 | -1.34 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 97.80 | 116.37 | -1.23 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 99.74 | 118.49 | -1.17 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 103.08 | 121.91 | -1.03 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 103.19 | 120.49 | -0.64 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 103.13 | 119.46 | -0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-12 | 102.32 | 118.02 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-11 | 102.73 | 116.63 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-10 | 103.59 | 118.57 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-09 | 104.50 | 119.05 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-06 | 103.63 | 119.16 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-05 | 103.44 | 118.14 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-04 | 104.80 | 118.41 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-03 | 104.93 | 119.52 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-02 | 105.77 | 121.34 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-27 | 107.74 | 125.24 | -0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-26 | 105.68 | 123.42 | -0.56 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-25 | 105.20 | 123.06 | -0.61 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 105.21 | 123.59 | -0.73 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-23 | 105.69 | 123.97 | -0.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-20 | 104.00 | 121.64 | -0.61 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-19 | 103.33 | 121.75 | -0.82 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 103.58 | 121.33 | -0.66 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 103.49 | 120.05 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-13 | 103.48 | 119.59 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-12 | 104.90 | 121.61 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-11 | 102.10 | 118.46 | -0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-10 | 102.97 | 118.31 | -0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-09 | 102.86 | 118.34 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-06 | 103.35 | 121.35 | -0.74 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 102.19 | 119.97 | -0.75 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 102.25 | 118.84 | -0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-03 | 100.92 | 118.22 | -0.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 100.62 | 116.31 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-30 | 99.51 | 115.81 | -0.53 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 99.67 | 115.80 | -0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-28 | 98.81 | 114.60 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-27 | 99.23 | 114.70 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-26 | 98.86 | 113.82 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-23 | 97.69 | 113.93 | -0.61 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 96.67 | 114.34 | -0.98 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 96.57 | 115.00 | -1.16 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 95.67 | 114.10 | -1.21 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 97.12 | 119.36 | -2.00 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 97.49 | 119.94 | -2.04 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 97.34 | 117.03 | -1.45 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 97.75 | 116.45 | -1.22 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 96.90 | 116.87 | -1.54 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 97.08 | 115.83 | -1.27 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 97.57 | 114.31 | -0.82 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 96.08 | 112.08 | -0.72 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 95.64 | 112.77 | -1.00 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-05 | 94.72 | 111.93 | -1.06 | YUM ahead |
| 2026-01-02 | 95.80 | 112.08 | -0.82 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-31 | 96.55 | 112.67 | -0.76 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-30 | 97.31 | 113.34 | -0.72 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-29 | 97.46 | 113.41 | -0.70 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-26 | 98.14 | 114.13 | -0.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-24 | 98.98 | 114.93 | -0.66 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-23 | 98.19 | 115.09 | -0.90 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-22 | 99.89 | 115.64 | -0.60 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-19 | 99.77 | 114.51 | -0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-18 | 100.98 | 115.22 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-17 | 100.67 | 114.05 | -0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-16 | 99.35 | 112.48 | -0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-15 | 100.69 | 114.56 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-12 | 100.05 | 112.50 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-11 | 97.84 | 110.32 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-10 | 98.10 | 107.16 | +0.77 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-09 | 98.18 | 106.53 | +0.94 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-08 | 97.86 | 106.15 | +0.95 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-05 | 98.32 | 107.96 | +0.65 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 97.47 | 108.63 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-03 | 97.20 | 110.61 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-02 | 95.00 | 109.94 | -0.62 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 95.90 | 112.19 | -0.89 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 98.50 | 114.11 | -0.66 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 98.69 | 114.55 | -0.71 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 98.07 | 114.69 | -0.90 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 96.32 | 112.52 | -0.88 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 97.72 | 113.93 | -0.84 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 96.08 | 111.13 | -0.65 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 95.63 | 110.46 | -0.63 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 96.22 | 110.84 | -0.57 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-17 | 96.32 | 110.25 | -0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-14 | 96.99 | 110.99 | -0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-13 | 97.16 | 111.51 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-12 | 96.96 | 111.25 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-11 | 96.93 | 112.27 | -0.72 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 94.48 | 110.42 | -0.94 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 94.66 | 111.06 | -1.04 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 94.27 | 109.94 | -0.91 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 96.56 | 111.26 | -0.63 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 94.52 | 111.38 | -1.17 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-11-03 | 93.62 | 103.81 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-31 | 94.27 | 102.93 | +0.63 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 95.54 | 103.57 | +0.80 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 95.51 | 103.66 | +0.77 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 96.79 | 105.08 | +0.76 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 97.93 | 106.49 | +0.71 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 96.60 | 106.77 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-23 | 96.97 | 109.01 | -0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-22 | 97.96 | 109.76 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-21 | 97.13 | 110.62 | -0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-20 | 97.22 | 110.34 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-17 | 97.32 | 108.18 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-16 | 96.45 | 106.78 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-15 | 96.43 | 107.63 | +0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-14 | 96.21 | 107.23 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-13 | 94.80 | 104.62 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-10 | 93.82 | 105.47 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-09 | 92.81 | 106.27 | -0.54 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 93.00 | 108.76 | -0.99 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 93.61 | 109.27 | -0.96 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 93.52 | 110.81 | -1.29 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-10-03 | 95.08 | 112.23 | -1.22 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 94.73 | 112.72 | -1.40 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 94.93 | 114.09 | -1.63 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 96.00 | 113.20 | -1.23 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 95.71 | 114.65 | -1.58 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 96.42 | 113.73 | -1.26 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 95.50 | 112.02 | -1.15 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 96.14 | 111.31 | -0.88 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 95.78 | 111.30 | -0.97 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 95.71 | 111.17 | -0.96 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 95.52 | 108.48 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-18 | 95.13 | 108.19 | -0.52 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 96.34 | 110.42 | -0.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 95.81 | 110.23 | -0.78 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 95.42 | 110.90 | -1.00 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 96.47 | 111.34 | -0.86 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 97.43 | 111.07 | -0.60 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 96.65 | 108.75 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-09 | 98.72 | 108.57 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-08 | 98.81 | 110.22 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-05 | 99.31 | 107.68 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-04 | 100.14 | 107.00 | +0.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 99.95 | 107.66 | +0.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 99.75 | 108.32 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-29 | 99.05 | 109.46 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-28 | 98.63 | 108.34 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-27 | 98.38 | 108.24 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-26 | 98.86 | 109.50 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-25 | 99.01 | 109.40 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-22 | 99.21 | 110.13 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-21 | 98.94 | 110.23 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-20 | 98.90 | 111.22 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-19 | 98.22 | 113.21 | -0.82 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 97.52 | 111.22 | -0.59 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 97.59 | 110.36 | -0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-14 | 97.60 | 109.31 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-13 | 96.37 | 107.83 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-12 | 95.29 | 105.82 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-11 | 96.15 | 105.21 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-08 | 96.49 | 105.22 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-07 | 97.27 | 106.17 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-06 | 97.19 | 105.27 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 94.38 | 103.90 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-04 | 96.11 | 109.48 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-01 | 95.68 | 108.26 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-31 | 94.79 | 107.36 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-30 | 95.91 | 109.47 | -0.52 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 95.61 | 108.13 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-28 | 94.52 | 107.46 | -0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-25 | 94.29 | 109.26 | -0.81 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 93.03 | 108.61 | -0.96 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 94.17 | 110.07 | -0.99 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-22 | 94.51 | 110.62 | -1.02 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 93.42 | 108.37 | -0.83 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-18 | 93.84 | 110.94 | -1.21 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-17 | 94.89 | 110.29 | -0.87 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-16 | 94.42 | 108.84 | -0.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-15 | 94.65 | 107.99 | -0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-14 | 95.36 | 109.61 | -0.62 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-11 | 94.74 | 111.56 | -1.09 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-10 | 94.26 | 113.47 | -1.53 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-09 | 92.56 | 112.35 | -1.69 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-08 | 92.14 | 112.11 | -1.74 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-07 | 92.72 | 111.98 | -1.58 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-03 | 92.90 | 111.72 | -1.49 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-02 | 93.07 | 111.85 | -1.47 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-07-01 | 93.98 | 111.99 | -1.31 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-06-30 | 92.30 | 110.36 | -1.37 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-06-27 | 92.10 | 110.53 | -1.44 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-06-26 | 90.23 | 109.52 | -1.66 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-06-25 | 90.20 | 109.61 | -1.68 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-06-24 | 92.07 | 106.28 | -0.67 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-06-23 | 91.46 | 105.30 | -0.61 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-06-20 | 90.81 | 103.57 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-18 | 91.49 | 103.05 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-17 | 92.34 | 104.26 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-16 | 93.60 | 105.71 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-13 | 95.37 | 107.25 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-12 | 95.77 | 107.22 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-11 | 95.31 | 106.81 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-10 | 94.90 | 107.19 | -0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-09 | 96.28 | 106.61 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-06 | 97.09 | 107.86 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-05 | 97.61 | 106.41 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-04 | 98.42 | 107.25 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-03 | 98.68 | 107.22 | +0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-02 | 98.77 | 107.72 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-30 | 99.14 | 107.20 | +0.64 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-29 | 98.52 | 107.28 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-28 | 98.82 | 106.61 | +0.69 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-27 | 99.49 | 107.31 | +0.70 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-23 | 99.37 | 108.33 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-22 | 99.29 | 108.36 | +0.52 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-21 | 99.96 | 109.06 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-20 | 101.02 | 110.99 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-19 | 101.48 | 111.45 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-16 | 100.65 | 110.28 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-15 | 99.34 | 109.52 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-14 | 97.14 | 108.11 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-13 | 97.51 | 108.53 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-12 | 98.53 | 109.33 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-09 | 99.09 | 109.58 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-08 | 99.03 | 110.21 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-07 | 100.50 | 111.33 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-06 | 100.07 | 110.43 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-05 | 99.73 | 109.17 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-02 | 98.55 | 111.07 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-01 | 99.08 | 110.67 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-30 | 100.98 | 112.04 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-29 | 99.35 | 109.99 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-28 | 100.08 | 110.04 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-25 | 100.06 | 109.70 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-24 | 99.89 | 109.91 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-23 | 100.61 | 108.86 | +0.74 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-22 | 100.80 | 108.03 | +0.90 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-21 | 97.52 | 104.65 | +0.89 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-17 | 98.34 | 106.73 | +0.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-16 | 97.64 | 106.18 | +0.69 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-15 | 98.71 | 107.76 | +0.64 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-14 | 99.85 | 108.74 | +0.68 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-11 | 97.90 | 107.99 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-10 | 96.91 | 108.36 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-09 | 96.02 | 108.33 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-08 | 94.72 | 105.30 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-07 | 94.73 | 107.94 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-04 | 94.80 | 110.10 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-03 | 100.54 | 120.24 | -0.74 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-04-02 | 98.43 | 117.84 | -0.76 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-04-01 | 99.07 | 118.36 | -0.73 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-31 | 98.68 | 117.20 | -0.64 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-28 | 97.01 | 116.01 | -0.75 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-27 | 98.78 | 117.41 | -0.66 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-26 | 99.06 | 118.18 | -0.72 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-25 | 96.95 | 116.03 | -0.77 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-24 | 96.56 | 116.05 | -0.84 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-21 | 96.49 | 116.74 | -0.95 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-20 | 96.98 | 117.59 | -0.99 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-19 | 96.95 | 117.31 | -0.96 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-18 | 95.91 | 117.15 | -1.12 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-17 | 96.02 | 117.03 | -1.09 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-14 | 94.72 | 115.48 | -1.10 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 93.98 | 114.26 | -1.07 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-12 | 94.58 | 114.99 | -1.07 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-11 | 96.90 | 116.71 | -0.93 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-10 | 100.22 | 117.74 | -0.54 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-07 | 101.49 | 121.05 | -0.78 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-06 | 98.04 | 118.61 | -1.01 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-05 | 97.12 | 118.69 | -1.18 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-04 | 96.59 | 117.98 | -1.18 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-03-03 | 96.12 | 116.88 | -1.12 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-02-28 | 97.40 | 116.46 | -0.86 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-02-27 | 97.91 | 114.48 | -0.50 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-02-26 | 96.12 | 112.83 | -0.57 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-02-25 | 98.16 | 114.81 | -0.52 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-02-24 | 97.16 | 111.89 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-21 | 96.29 | 110.78 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-20 | 95.73 | 112.43 | -0.60 | YUM ahead |
| 2025-02-19 | 95.38 | 110.44 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-18 | 96.29 | 109.58 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-14 | 97.47 | 110.16 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-13 | 97.93 | 110.78 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-12 | 97.17 | 109.12 | +0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-11 | 97.99 | 109.22 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-10 | 97.43 | 110.34 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-07 | 92.97 | 106.92 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-06 | 92.99 | 107.25 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-05 | 91.24 | 97.75 | +0.82 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-04 | 91.54 | 97.91 | +0.84 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-03 | 91.63 | 97.94 | +0.85 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-31 | 91.20 | 97.19 | +0.89 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-30 | 91.71 | 97.36 | +0.95 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-29 | 91.64 | 96.20 | +1.12 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-28 | 91.97 | 96.25 | +1.17 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-27 | 92.59 | 97.48 | +1.07 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-24 | 90.18 | 95.52 | +0.97 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-23 | 89.85 | 94.59 | +1.06 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-22 | 88.88 | 94.00 | +0.99 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-21 | 89.28 | 93.62 | +1.12 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-17 | 88.75 | 93.33 | +1.08 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-16 | 88.37 | 94.02 | +0.90 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-15 | 89.18 | 93.67 | +1.09 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-14 | 88.95 | 92.88 | +1.18 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-13 | 89.60 | 92.15 | +1.42 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-10 | 89.18 | 91.79 | +1.41 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-08 | 90.63 | 95.14 | +1.10 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-07 | 91.40 | 95.74 | +1.14 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-06 | 92.30 | 96.95 | +1.09 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-03 | 93.12 | 99.38 | +0.84 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-01-02 | 92.40 | 99.47 | +0.70 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-31 | 91.58 | 99.92 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-30 | 91.48 | 99.44 | +0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-27 | 92.75 | 100.71 | +0.56 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-26 | 93.13 | 101.29 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-24 | 92.87 | 100.54 | +0.60 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-23 | 92.02 | 99.69 | +0.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-20 | 92.46 | 98.58 | +0.83 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-19 | 91.68 | 97.09 | +0.93 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-18 | 91.89 | 97.91 | +0.84 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-17 | 93.53 | 100.34 | +0.73 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-16 | 94.05 | 100.58 | +0.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-13 | 93.69 | 102.03 | +0.50 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-12 | 93.70 | 103.25 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-11 | 93.54 | 103.18 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-10 | 94.99 | 102.94 | +0.56 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-09 | 95.20 | 103.58 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-06 | 94.45 | 102.50 | +0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-12-05 | 94.60 | 102.87 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-04 | 93.22 | 102.90 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-03 | 93.03 | 102.57 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-02 | 92.38 | 103.55 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-29 | 93.51 | 103.48 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-27 | 93.21 | 103.77 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-26 | 93.61 | 103.25 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-25 | 93.57 | 102.07 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-22 | 91.70 | 100.74 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-21 | 91.13 | 99.96 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-20 | 91.90 | 98.96 | +0.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-19 | 91.84 | 98.41 | +0.68 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-18 | 91.96 | 99.81 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-15 | 92.44 | 99.49 | +0.62 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-14 | 94.31 | 101.84 | +0.57 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-13 | 93.93 | 100.74 | +0.67 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-12 | 94.34 | 100.25 | +0.81 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-11 | 95.25 | 101.75 | +0.74 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-08 | 94.44 | 102.19 | +0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-07 | 93.08 | 102.08 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-06 | 92.87 | 100.07 | +0.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-05 | 93.92 | 100.34 | +0.74 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-04 | 92.51 | 98.88 | +0.74 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-11-01 | 93.26 | 98.56 | +0.91 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-31 | 92.28 | 97.68 | +0.89 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-30 | 92.09 | 99.34 | +0.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-29 | 93.19 | 99.78 | +0.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-28 | 93.75 | 100.44 | +0.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-25 | 92.43 | 99.08 | +0.71 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-24 | 95.27 | 99.17 | +1.15 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-23 | 94.32 | 99.81 | +0.91 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-22 | 99.41 | 99.32 | +1.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-21 | 99.47 | 99.80 | +1.73 | MCD ahead |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | +1.80 | MCD ahead |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 23, 2024 (MCD -5.1%, YUM +0.5%); Feb 6, 2025 (MCD +1.9%, YUM +9.7%); Jun 25, 2025 (MCD -2.0%, YUM +3.1%); Nov 4, 2025 (MCD +1.0%, YUM +7.3%); Sep 23, 2026 (MCD -4.8%, YUM +0.7%). Upcoming earnings: YUM Nov 3, 2026 (pre-market); MCD Nov 4, 2026 (pre-market).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
1 simulated trade to Oct 20, 2026: -7.23% per trade on average after costs, 0 won.
| Legs | Entered | Exited | Why | Days | Before costs | Costs + borrow | After costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long MCD · Short YUM | Mar 25, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | divergence stop | 44 | -$689.08 | -$39.22 | -$723.36 (-7.23%) |
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
MCD and YUM at a glance
MCD McDonald's Corporation
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 63908
- Industry
- Restaurants · SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places
- Market value
- $171.7B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
YUM Yum! Brands Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 1041061
- Industry
- Restaurants · SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places
- Market value
- $40.9B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of MCD and YUM
| Pair | Status | Ahead now | Industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| YUM / CMG | Watchlist | YUM by 2.50 sd | SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places |
| MCD / SBUX | Watchlist | SBUX by 1.30 sd | Restaurants |
| MCD / CMG | Watchlist | MCD by 0.70 sd | SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places |
| SBUX / YUM | Watchlist | SBUX by 0.56 sd | Restaurants |
Follow the research behind the paper book
Boostio is a research-first platform in private beta: crypto candidates, daily market stories, public paper trading and now rival stocks. Exploring these pages stays free and open.
Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
