Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. vs McDonald's Corporation
WatchlistCMG / MCDPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($172B vs $38B) with SEC SIC 5812 (Retail-Eating Places).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.23 (needs >= 0.60)
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.44 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Business leadership
MCD is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | CMG | MCD | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $11.9B | $26.9B | MCD |
| 2024 | $11.3B | $25.9B | MCD |
| 2023 | $9.9B | $25.5B | MCD |
| 2022 | $8.6B | $23.2B | MCD |
| 2021 | $7.5B | $23.2B | MCD |
| 2020 | $6.0B | $19.2B | MCD |
MCD led in every year with figures for both. Market value: CMG $37.8B, MCD $171.7B.
Stock leadership
MCD is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
MCD leads CMG by 0.70 standard deviations: +7.0% over its usual price ratio. 2 lead switches in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | -11.5% | -17.0% | -33.6% |
| MCD | -4.6% | -16.5% | -17.8% |
Relationship
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Fail
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.23 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.44 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Pass
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 15.64 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. MCD McDonald's CorporationPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: CMG relative to MCD, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: CMG ahead; below 0: MCD ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | CMG index | MCD index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 47.38 | 79.80 | -0.70 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 47.35 | 77.79 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-20 | 49.92 | 77.87 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-19 | 50.26 | 76.66 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-16 | 50.33 | 76.75 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-15 | 51.49 | 76.60 | +0.54 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 51.39 | 75.28 | +0.69 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 51.10 | 74.49 | +0.74 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 51.19 | 74.44 | +0.76 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 53.19 | 74.31 | +1.15 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 55.03 | 74.84 | +1.42 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 51.81 | 72.93 | +1.07 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.03 | 73.43 | +1.04 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 51.94 | 73.62 | +1.00 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 54.49 | 73.25 | +1.53 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 54.42 | 73.23 | +1.53 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-30 | 53.80 | 72.95 | +1.46 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-29 | 53.68 | 73.91 | +1.31 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-28 | 53.63 | 73.79 | +1.32 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-25 | 52.75 | 74.71 | +1.03 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 53.90 | 74.87 | +1.23 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-23 | 55.08 | 75.28 | +1.39 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-22 | 54.94 | 79.08 | +0.87 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 55.80 | 78.30 | +1.13 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-18 | 56.29 | 78.42 | +1.21 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-17 | 56.42 | 78.49 | +1.23 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-16 | 56.71 | 78.52 | +1.28 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-15 | 58.65 | 79.85 | +1.46 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-14 | 62.35 | 81.34 | +1.91 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-11 | 60.95 | 79.77 | +1.89 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-10 | 60.84 | 79.94 | +1.87 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-09 | 60.67 | 80.07 | +1.84 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 62.23 | 80.81 | +2.03 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-04 | 62.23 | 80.77 | +2.05 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-03 | 63.26 | 82.02 | +2.07 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-02 | 64.86 | 82.43 | +2.31 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-09-01 | 63.16 | 82.48 | +2.03 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 64.03 | 83.25 | +2.09 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.03 | 83.71 | +2.04 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 62.67 | 82.15 | +2.02 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 62.87 | 84.32 | +1.78 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 63.02 | 84.69 | +1.76 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 64.02 | 86.09 | +1.75 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-21 | 62.13 | 85.59 | +1.49 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-20 | 59.42 | 85.02 | +1.07 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-19 | 58.36 | 84.49 | +0.93 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-18 | 56.17 | 84.34 | +0.53 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-17 | 56.84 | 83.88 | +0.71 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-14 | 56.41 | 86.19 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-13 | 54.91 | 86.00 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-12 | 54.96 | 87.09 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-11 | 53.88 | 86.60 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-10 | 54.12 | 86.47 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-07 | 55.21 | 86.71 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-06 | 56.76 | 87.27 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-05 | 58.09 | 86.56 | +0.53 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 56.95 | 84.77 | +0.53 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 63.07 | 83.79 | +1.69 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 62.67 | 85.49 | +1.41 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 64.86 | 84.80 | +1.84 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 57.65 | 85.77 | +0.52 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 56.42 | 86.25 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-27 | 55.90 | 85.50 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-24 | 53.53 | 83.64 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-23 | 53.90 | 83.02 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-22 | 54.22 | 83.26 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-21 | 56.10 | 83.37 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-20 | 55.78 | 84.55 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-17 | 57.99 | 84.57 | +0.52 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 57.59 | 86.38 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-15 | 58.31 | 83.70 | +0.60 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 61.34 | 84.96 | +0.86 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 61.68 | 86.12 | +0.77 | CMG ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 59.35 | 86.75 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-09 | 58.26 | 87.34 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-08 | 56.29 | 87.90 | -0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-07 | 57.84 | 89.15 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-06 | 57.22 | 88.29 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-02 | 59.59 | 88.65 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-01 | 58.93 | 85.11 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-30 | 57.25 | 85.39 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-29 | 55.51 | 84.40 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-26 | 56.14 | 85.22 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-25 | 54.35 | 83.57 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-24 | 53.36 | 86.52 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-23 | 52.11 | 85.82 | -0.54 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-22 | 51.42 | 85.32 | -0.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-18 | 54.71 | 88.01 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-17 | 53.65 | 89.66 | -0.65 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 54.91 | 90.96 | -0.60 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-15 | 55.11 | 90.38 | -0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-12 | 54.27 | 89.97 | -0.62 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 52.62 | 89.96 | -0.81 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-10 | 51.22 | 89.25 | -0.92 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 50.31 | 89.16 | -1.03 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 49.28 | 87.75 | -1.06 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 49.40 | 88.40 | -1.10 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-04 | 47.45 | 86.15 | -1.19 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 48.39 | 86.33 | -1.10 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 49.27 | 87.30 | -1.07 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 51.44 | 87.22 | -0.82 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 53.65 | 88.20 | -0.65 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 54.59 | 87.81 | -0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-27 | 55.04 | 88.74 | -0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-26 | 54.40 | 88.22 | -0.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-22 | 55.38 | 89.17 | -0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-21 | 55.23 | 89.77 | -0.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-20 | 55.50 | 88.54 | -0.51 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-19 | 55.63 | 88.70 | -0.52 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-18 | 56.83 | 89.23 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-15 | 54.98 | 87.31 | -0.51 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-14 | 54.03 | 86.86 | -0.58 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-13 | 54.07 | 87.09 | -0.60 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-12 | 55.01 | 86.82 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-11 | 53.75 | 86.75 | -0.62 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-08 | 54.71 | 87.11 | -0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-07 | 56.02 | 89.62 | -0.58 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-06 | 55.13 | 89.75 | -0.68 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 54.40 | 90.08 | -0.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 53.85 | 89.75 | -0.83 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 55.53 | 90.55 | -0.71 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 57.23 | 92.74 | -0.68 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 55.55 | 91.64 | -0.79 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 55.35 | 92.36 | -0.86 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 56.64 | 91.68 | -0.70 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 57.60 | 94.57 | -0.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 57.08 | 95.57 | -0.90 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 59.12 | 94.79 | -0.66 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 60.70 | 95.35 | -0.56 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-20 | 60.33 | 96.96 | -0.69 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-17 | 60.33 | 98.36 | -0.77 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-16 | 59.07 | 96.97 | -0.82 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-15 | 59.35 | 96.75 | -0.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-14 | 58.80 | 95.79 | -0.79 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-13 | 58.24 | 96.19 | -0.87 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 57.40 | 96.56 | -0.98 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 57.65 | 97.79 | -1.03 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-08 | 56.90 | 96.98 | -1.06 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 55.67 | 96.30 | -1.15 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 56.41 | 97.85 | -1.18 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 55.83 | 97.02 | -1.20 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 54.94 | 97.07 | -1.30 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 53.90 | 98.18 | -1.48 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 52.47 | 97.46 | -1.60 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 51.96 | 96.63 | -1.62 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 54.17 | 97.59 | -1.46 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 54.72 | 98.46 | -1.47 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 55.16 | 97.25 | -1.37 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 56.17 | 97.44 | -1.29 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 56.19 | 97.56 | -1.30 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 55.46 | 97.80 | -1.40 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 54.96 | 99.74 | -1.58 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 57.94 | 103.08 | -1.48 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 57.38 | 103.19 | -1.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 54.76 | 103.13 | -1.83 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 54.82 | 102.32 | -1.80 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 57.00 | 102.73 | -1.62 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 58.46 | 103.59 | -1.54 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 59.42 | 104.50 | -1.51 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 59.56 | 103.63 | -1.46 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 62.40 | 103.44 | -1.19 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 61.81 | 104.80 | -1.33 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 62.18 | 104.93 | -1.31 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 61.78 | 105.77 | -1.41 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-27 | 62.67 | 107.74 | -1.44 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-26 | 64.07 | 105.68 | -1.21 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-25 | 63.14 | 105.20 | -1.28 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 61.44 | 105.21 | -1.45 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-23 | 61.64 | 105.69 | -1.47 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-20 | 63.21 | 104.00 | -1.25 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-19 | 63.93 | 103.33 | -1.15 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 65.20 | 103.58 | -1.06 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 63.78 | 103.49 | -1.19 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-13 | 61.12 | 103.48 | -1.44 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-12 | 60.35 | 104.90 | -1.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-11 | 62.67 | 102.10 | -1.25 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-10 | 64.72 | 102.97 | -1.12 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-09 | 66.66 | 102.86 | -0.95 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-06 | 66.32 | 103.35 | -1.01 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 64.74 | 102.19 | -1.09 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 67.23 | 102.25 | -0.89 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-03 | 65.95 | 100.92 | -0.93 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 64.84 | 100.62 | -1.01 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 65.45 | 99.51 | -0.91 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 65.84 | 99.67 | -0.89 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 65.94 | 98.81 | -0.84 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 66.76 | 99.23 | -0.80 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-26 | 66.88 | 98.86 | -0.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 68.82 | 97.69 | -0.57 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 68.26 | 96.67 | -0.56 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 68.56 | 96.57 | -0.54 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 65.67 | 95.67 | -0.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 67.28 | 97.12 | -0.68 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 67.96 | 97.49 | -0.65 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 68.34 | 97.34 | -0.62 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 66.36 | 97.75 | -0.80 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 67.92 | 96.90 | -0.64 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 67.54 | 97.08 | -0.69 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 65.97 | 97.57 | -0.84 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 65.45 | 96.08 | -0.81 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 65.03 | 95.64 | -0.83 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-05 | 64.40 | 94.72 | -0.83 | MCD ahead |
| 2026-01-02 | 63.13 | 95.80 | -1.00 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-31 | 62.30 | 96.55 | -1.11 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-30 | 62.37 | 97.31 | -1.16 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-29 | 62.54 | 97.46 | -1.16 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-26 | 63.66 | 98.14 | -1.11 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-24 | 63.82 | 98.98 | -1.15 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-23 | 63.63 | 98.19 | -1.13 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-22 | 63.85 | 99.89 | -1.21 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-19 | 63.38 | 99.77 | -1.25 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-18 | 63.36 | 100.98 | -1.32 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-17 | 62.30 | 100.67 | -1.40 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-16 | 60.04 | 99.35 | -1.52 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-15 | 60.52 | 100.69 | -1.56 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-12 | 60.85 | 100.05 | -1.51 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-11 | 58.71 | 97.84 | -1.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-10 | 57.15 | 98.10 | -1.75 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-09 | 56.79 | 98.18 | -1.80 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-08 | 56.59 | 97.86 | -1.82 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-05 | 57.15 | 98.32 | -1.81 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 57.50 | 97.47 | -1.76 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-03 | 57.13 | 97.20 | -1.79 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-02 | 57.48 | 95.00 | -1.66 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 57.65 | 95.90 | -1.71 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 58.12 | 98.50 | -1.82 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 57.30 | 98.69 | -1.92 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 56.24 | 98.07 | -2.01 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 52.52 | 96.32 | -2.29 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 53.26 | 97.72 | -2.32 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 51.10 | 96.08 | -2.49 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 52.20 | 95.63 | -2.39 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 51.79 | 96.22 | -2.50 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-17 | 51.41 | 96.32 | -2.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-14 | 53.16 | 96.99 | -2.48 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-13 | 52.84 | 97.16 | -2.57 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-12 | 52.74 | 96.96 | -2.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-11 | 50.19 | 96.93 | -2.94 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 51.32 | 94.48 | -2.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 51.51 | 94.66 | -2.76 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 51.46 | 94.27 | -2.79 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 53.83 | 96.56 | -2.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 53.44 | 94.52 | -2.69 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-11-03 | 53.06 | 93.62 | -2.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-31 | 53.36 | 94.27 | -2.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 54.77 | 95.54 | -2.75 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 66.95 | 95.51 | -1.52 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 67.79 | 96.79 | -1.54 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 69.14 | 97.93 | -1.50 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 69.36 | 96.60 | -1.41 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-23 | 70.38 | 96.97 | -1.35 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-22 | 70.06 | 97.96 | -1.46 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-21 | 71.33 | 97.13 | -1.31 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-20 | 70.10 | 97.22 | -1.43 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-17 | 70.48 | 97.32 | -1.42 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-16 | 70.31 | 96.45 | -1.39 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-15 | 70.33 | 96.43 | -1.40 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-14 | 70.89 | 96.21 | -1.34 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-13 | 68.87 | 94.80 | -1.45 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 67.05 | 93.82 | -1.57 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-09 | 68.85 | 92.81 | -1.34 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 69.00 | 93.00 | -1.35 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 68.95 | 93.61 | -1.41 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 70.10 | 93.52 | -1.31 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-03 | 70.31 | 95.08 | -1.41 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 67.81 | 94.73 | -1.64 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 65.62 | 94.93 | -1.89 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 65.99 | 96.00 | -1.95 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 67.18 | 95.71 | -1.83 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 67.49 | 96.42 | -1.87 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 66.22 | 95.50 | -1.95 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 66.59 | 96.14 | -1.98 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 66.81 | 95.78 | -1.96 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 67.57 | 95.71 | -1.90 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 66.21 | 95.52 | -2.05 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 67.03 | 95.13 | -1.96 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 66.80 | 96.34 | -2.10 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 66.17 | 95.81 | -2.16 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 64.96 | 95.42 | -2.29 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 65.04 | 96.47 | -2.40 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 65.60 | 97.43 | -2.45 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 65.18 | 96.65 | -2.47 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 66.44 | 98.72 | -2.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 66.76 | 98.81 | -2.54 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 69.14 | 99.31 | -2.35 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 69.73 | 100.14 | -2.39 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 70.37 | 99.95 | -2.34 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 70.30 | 99.75 | -2.37 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 70.95 | 99.05 | -2.27 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 71.41 | 98.63 | -2.21 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 71.81 | 98.38 | -2.18 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 71.59 | 98.86 | -2.27 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 71.98 | 99.01 | -2.28 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 73.48 | 99.21 | -2.15 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 72.25 | 98.94 | -2.30 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 72.52 | 98.90 | -2.30 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 72.82 | 98.22 | -2.24 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 73.04 | 97.52 | -2.18 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 74.15 | 97.59 | -2.08 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 72.69 | 97.60 | -2.29 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-13 | 73.21 | 96.37 | -2.14 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-12 | 72.12 | 95.29 | -2.20 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-11 | 70.08 | 96.15 | -2.58 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-08 | 69.78 | 96.49 | -2.70 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-07 | 71.88 | 97.27 | -2.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-06 | 71.88 | 97.19 | -2.58 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 71.78 | 94.38 | -2.36 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-04 | 72.20 | 96.11 | -2.51 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-08-01 | 71.59 | 95.68 | -2.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-31 | 72.20 | 94.79 | -2.46 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-30 | 73.68 | 95.91 | -2.41 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 74.73 | 95.61 | -2.27 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 75.53 | 94.52 | -2.08 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 78.73 | 94.29 | -1.65 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 77.02 | 93.03 | -1.76 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 88.87 | 94.17 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-22 | 88.20 | 94.51 | -0.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 88.33 | 93.42 | -0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-18 | 90.81 | 93.84 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-17 | 90.15 | 94.89 | -0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-16 | 89.88 | 94.42 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-15 | 90.84 | 94.65 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-14 | 92.31 | 95.36 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-11 | 94.29 | 94.74 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-10 | 94.98 | 94.26 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-09 | 94.19 | 92.56 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-08 | 93.37 | 92.14 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-07 | 93.38 | 92.72 | +0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-03 | 96.09 | 92.90 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-02 | 95.59 | 93.07 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-01 | 98.06 | 93.98 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-30 | 94.54 | 92.30 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-27 | 92.69 | 92.10 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-26 | 91.38 | 90.23 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-25 | 92.84 | 90.20 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-24 | 92.02 | 92.07 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-23 | 90.55 | 91.46 | -0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-20 | 88.87 | 90.81 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-18 | 87.27 | 91.49 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-17 | 86.51 | 92.34 | -0.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-16 | 88.47 | 93.60 | -0.53 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-13 | 84.59 | 95.37 | -1.03 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-12 | 85.69 | 95.77 | -0.96 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-11 | 87.20 | 95.31 | -0.80 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-10 | 85.23 | 94.90 | -0.95 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-09 | 86.09 | 96.28 | -0.99 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-06 | 88.40 | 97.09 | -0.86 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-05 | 88.57 | 97.61 | -0.89 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-04 | 87.83 | 98.42 | -1.02 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-03 | 84.31 | 98.68 | -1.35 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-06-02 | 83.92 | 98.77 | -1.40 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-30 | 84.32 | 99.14 | -1.40 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-29 | 83.73 | 98.52 | -1.42 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-28 | 84.31 | 98.82 | -1.40 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-27 | 85.86 | 99.49 | -1.33 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-23 | 85.25 | 99.37 | -1.38 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-22 | 85.50 | 99.29 | -1.36 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-21 | 85.52 | 99.96 | -1.42 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-20 | 86.66 | 101.02 | -1.41 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-19 | 88.01 | 101.48 | -1.34 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-16 | 88.10 | 100.65 | -1.29 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-15 | 87.62 | 99.34 | -1.24 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-14 | 87.96 | 97.14 | -1.06 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-13 | 85.28 | 97.51 | -1.32 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-12 | 85.47 | 98.53 | -1.39 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-09 | 83.72 | 99.09 | -1.60 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-08 | 86.63 | 99.03 | -1.35 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-07 | 86.95 | 100.50 | -1.45 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-06 | 84.80 | 100.07 | -1.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-05 | 84.21 | 99.73 | -1.66 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-02 | 86.82 | 98.55 | -1.35 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-05-01 | 84.73 | 99.08 | -1.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-30 | 85.06 | 100.98 | -1.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-29 | 85.28 | 99.35 | -1.59 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-28 | 85.70 | 100.08 | -1.63 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-25 | 87.19 | 100.06 | -1.51 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-24 | 83.41 | 99.89 | -1.85 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-23 | 82.10 | 100.61 | -2.05 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-22 | 79.31 | 100.80 | -2.36 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-21 | 78.35 | 97.52 | -2.24 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-17 | 81.11 | 98.34 | -2.06 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-16 | 80.96 | 97.64 | -2.04 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-15 | 82.17 | 98.71 | -2.03 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-14 | 83.28 | 99.85 | -2.04 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-11 | 83.79 | 97.90 | -1.86 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-10 | 84.64 | 96.91 | -1.71 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-09 | 85.76 | 96.02 | -1.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-08 | 77.42 | 94.72 | -2.30 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-07 | 78.58 | 94.73 | -2.21 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-04 | 79.63 | 94.80 | -2.14 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-03 | 84.32 | 100.54 | -2.18 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-02 | 87.59 | 98.43 | -1.69 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-04-01 | 87.00 | 99.07 | -1.83 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-31 | 84.54 | 98.68 | -2.06 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-28 | 84.04 | 97.01 | -1.99 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-27 | 85.74 | 98.78 | -2.00 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-26 | 84.31 | 99.06 | -2.20 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-25 | 83.36 | 96.95 | -2.14 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-24 | 83.52 | 96.56 | -2.11 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-21 | 81.71 | 96.49 | -2.33 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-20 | 82.51 | 96.98 | -2.32 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-19 | 82.49 | 96.95 | -2.36 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-18 | 80.47 | 95.91 | -2.52 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-17 | 83.60 | 96.02 | -2.20 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-14 | 84.24 | 94.72 | -2.01 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 82.05 | 93.98 | -2.21 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-12 | 84.27 | 94.58 | -2.03 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-11 | 84.16 | 96.90 | -2.30 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-10 | 83.90 | 100.22 | -2.69 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-07 | 84.58 | 101.49 | -2.78 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-06 | 86.66 | 98.04 | -2.21 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-05 | 90.25 | 97.12 | -1.72 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-04 | 89.53 | 96.59 | -1.76 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-03-03 | 91.48 | 96.12 | -1.49 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-28 | 90.87 | 97.40 | -1.70 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-27 | 88.80 | 97.91 | -1.99 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-26 | 89.95 | 96.12 | -1.67 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-25 | 88.35 | 98.16 | -2.08 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-24 | 86.23 | 97.16 | -2.23 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-21 | 86.73 | 96.29 | -2.09 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-20 | 89.32 | 95.73 | -1.73 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-19 | 90.59 | 95.38 | -1.55 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-18 | 91.75 | 96.29 | -1.52 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-14 | 96.11 | 97.47 | -1.16 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-13 | 97.88 | 97.93 | -1.02 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-12 | 96.46 | 97.17 | -1.09 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-11 | 94.60 | 97.99 | -1.37 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-10 | 97.32 | 97.43 | -1.02 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-07 | 96.43 | 92.97 | -0.63 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-06 | 96.51 | 92.99 | -0.61 | MCD ahead |
| 2025-02-05 | 96.83 | 91.24 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-04 | 99.38 | 91.54 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-03 | 98.27 | 91.63 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-31 | 98.25 | 91.20 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-30 | 99.33 | 91.71 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-29 | 98.11 | 91.64 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-28 | 97.37 | 91.97 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-27 | 98.16 | 92.59 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-24 | 95.47 | 90.18 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-23 | 96.92 | 89.85 | -0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-22 | 94.12 | 88.88 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-21 | 94.63 | 89.28 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-17 | 96.85 | 88.75 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-16 | 98.27 | 88.37 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-15 | 96.60 | 89.18 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-14 | 95.03 | 88.95 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-13 | 94.73 | 89.60 | -0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-10 | 95.13 | 89.18 | -0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-08 | 97.52 | 90.63 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-07 | 97.64 | 91.40 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-06 | 99.01 | 92.30 | -0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-03 | 100.52 | 93.12 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-02 | 100.84 | 92.40 | +0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-31 | 101.53 | 91.58 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-30 | 101.18 | 91.48 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-27 | 102.34 | 92.75 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-26 | 103.50 | 93.13 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-24 | 104.80 | 92.87 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-23 | 103.69 | 92.02 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-20 | 104.18 | 92.46 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-19 | 103.96 | 91.68 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-18 | 103.28 | 91.89 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-17 | 108.25 | 93.53 | +0.61 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-16 | 109.11 | 94.05 | +0.63 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-13 | 108.76 | 93.69 | +0.64 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-12 | 111.40 | 93.70 | +0.82 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-11 | 110.41 | 93.54 | +0.78 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-10 | 109.16 | 94.99 | +0.59 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-09 | 108.74 | 95.20 | +0.55 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-06 | 110.12 | 94.45 | +0.70 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-05 | 109.82 | 94.60 | +0.68 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-04 | 107.58 | 93.22 | +0.64 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-12-03 | 102.61 | 93.03 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-02 | 101.94 | 92.38 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-29 | 103.59 | 93.51 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-27 | 104.48 | 93.21 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-26 | 105.59 | 93.61 | +0.51 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-11-25 | 104.39 | 93.57 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-22 | 104.41 | 91.70 | +0.59 | CMG ahead |
| 2024-11-21 | 100.99 | 91.13 | +0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-20 | 99.14 | 91.90 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-19 | 98.89 | 91.84 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-18 | 99.02 | 91.96 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-15 | 98.72 | 92.44 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-14 | 100.88 | 94.31 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-13 | 99.80 | 93.93 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-12 | 101.85 | 94.34 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-11 | 99.80 | 95.25 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-08 | 99.02 | 94.44 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-07 | 98.01 | 93.08 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-06 | 97.14 | 92.87 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-05 | 94.60 | 93.92 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-04 | 94.93 | 92.51 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-01 | 98.65 | 93.26 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-31 | 93.90 | 92.28 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-30 | 93.84 | 92.09 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-29 | 101.85 | 93.19 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-28 | 102.04 | 93.75 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-25 | 100.08 | 92.43 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-24 | 100.08 | 95.27 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-23 | 99.38 | 94.32 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-22 | 100.83 | 99.41 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-21 | 100.52 | 99.47 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Apr 9, 2025 (CMG +10.8%, MCD +1.4%); Jul 24, 2025 (CMG -13.3%, MCD -1.2%); Oct 30, 2025 (CMG -18.2%, MCD +0.0%); Jul 30, 2026 (CMG +12.5%, MCD -1.1%); Aug 4, 2026 (CMG -9.7%, MCD +1.2%). Upcoming earnings: CMG Oct 28, 2026 (after-hours); MCD Nov 4, 2026 (pre-market).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
CMG and MCD at a glance
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 1058090
- Industry
- Restaurants · SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places
- Market value
- $37.8B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
MCD McDonald's Corporation
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 63908
- Industry
- Restaurants · SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places
- Market value
- $171.7B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of CMG and MCD
| Pair | Status | Ahead now | Industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| YUM / CMG | Watchlist | YUM by 2.50 sd | SIC 5812 Retail-Eating Places |
| MCD / YUM | Watchlist | YUM by 1.89 sd | Restaurants |
| MCD / SBUX | Watchlist | SBUX by 1.30 sd | Restaurants |
Follow the research behind the paper book
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Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
