Containers/Packaging

Kimberly-Clark Corporation vs Smurfit WestRock plc

WatchlistKMB / SWPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($35B vs $21B) in Nasdaq's "Containers/Packaging" industry; SEC SIC 2670 / 2650 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

  • Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.33 (needs >= 0.60)
  • Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.60 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Business leadership

SW is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

YearKMBSWLarger
2025$16.4B$31.2BSW
2024$16.8B$21.1BSW
2023$17.1B$12.1BKMB
2022$17.0B$13.5BKMB
2021$19.4B--
2020$19.1B--

Revenue lead switched: 2024 to SW. Market value: KMB $35.1B, SW $21.4B.

Stock leadership

KMB is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

KMB leads SW by 0.79 standard deviations: +7.7% over its usual price ratio. 2 lead switches in the last year.

Price change3 mo6 mo12 mo
KMB+2.4%+14.7%-6.4%
SW-12.6%+4.7%-0.2%
Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass
Aligned sessions: 577 (needs >= 254)
Fail
Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.33 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.60 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass
Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 14.37 (needs <= 63)
Data
Both stocks current
The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation SW Smurfit WestRock plcPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
80100120Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026KMB 77SW 96
Spread z-score: KMB relative to SW, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: KMB ahead; below 0: SW ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
-4stop-2idea0+2idea+4stopOct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026
Data table (504 sessions)
DateKMB indexSW indexzAhead
2026-10-2277.2495.67+0.79KMB ahead
2026-10-2173.3493.48+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-10-2074.5092.87+0.71KMB ahead
2026-10-1972.4992.09+0.50KMB ahead
2026-10-1672.6092.81+0.43near the usual relationship
2026-10-1571.5792.99+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-10-1468.3791.88-0.11near the usual relationship
2026-10-1367.6093.46-0.41near the usual relationship
2026-10-1267.9392.60-0.27near the usual relationship
2026-10-0967.1193.10-0.45near the usual relationship
2026-10-0867.2293.46-0.48near the usual relationship
2026-10-0766.3593.10-0.58SW ahead
2026-10-0666.5595.58-0.82SW ahead
2026-10-0565.6195.63-0.98SW ahead
2026-10-0264.8995.92-1.13SW ahead
2026-10-0164.8897.05-1.25SW ahead
2026-09-3067.0099.44-1.18SW ahead
2026-09-2968.08100.07-1.10SW ahead
2026-09-2867.93101.62-1.28SW ahead
2026-09-2567.69104.64-1.62SW ahead
2026-09-2466.86103.72-1.67SW ahead
2026-09-2367.19104.83-1.74SW ahead
2026-09-2268.02104.74-1.63SW ahead
2026-09-2167.22102.39-1.53SW ahead
2026-09-1867.3099.95-1.29SW ahead
2026-09-1767.53102.55-1.53SW ahead
2026-09-1667.46100.52-1.34SW ahead
2026-09-1567.8698.56-1.10SW ahead
2026-09-1468.1598.65-1.07SW ahead
2026-09-1167.5097.45-1.05SW ahead
2026-09-1067.7395.17-0.79SW ahead
2026-09-0967.8895.15-0.77SW ahead
2026-09-0870.7999.80-0.83SW ahead
2026-09-0472.18103.34-1.00SW ahead
2026-09-0374.24102.05-0.59SW ahead
2026-09-0275.16102.28-0.50SW ahead
2026-09-0173.64102.44-0.72SW ahead
2026-08-3174.24105.75-0.97SW ahead
2026-08-2875.34108.88-1.12SW ahead
2026-08-2775.63109.65-1.16SW ahead
2026-08-2675.88111.75-1.33SW ahead
2026-08-2576.35111.45-1.25SW ahead
2026-08-2476.59109.79-1.08SW ahead
2026-08-2175.17111.36-1.41SW ahead
2026-08-2074.75108.66-1.23SW ahead
2026-08-1975.57109.83-1.24SW ahead
2026-08-1874.08106.65-1.15SW ahead
2026-08-1774.21107.80-1.25SW ahead
2026-08-1475.92111.05-1.32SW ahead
2026-08-1376.13112.78-1.46SW ahead
2026-08-1274.91111.05-1.47SW ahead
2026-08-1174.66111.88-1.59SW ahead
2026-08-1074.29107.31-1.24SW ahead
2026-08-0775.43108.86-1.24SW ahead
2026-08-0674.73105.82-1.06SW ahead
2026-08-0577.28109.29-1.06SW ahead
2026-08-0476.73109.40-1.15SW ahead
2026-08-0373.97105.70-1.18SW ahead
2026-07-3175.17103.65-0.84SW ahead
2026-07-3075.78107.15-1.09SW ahead
2026-07-2977.86108.82-0.98SW ahead
2026-07-2877.77114.54-1.50SW ahead
2026-07-2776.64112.94-1.52SW ahead
2026-07-2475.44109.49-1.38SW ahead
2026-07-2373.8098.56-0.58SW ahead
2026-07-2274.88100.36-0.62SW ahead
2026-07-2174.3197.09-0.37near the usual relationship
2026-07-2074.6097.27-0.36near the usual relationship
2026-07-1774.5199.89-0.63SW ahead
2026-07-1674.95100.95-0.68SW ahead
2026-07-1573.2698.29-0.65SW ahead
2026-07-1473.4696.75-0.47near the usual relationship
2026-07-1375.7797.29-0.23near the usual relationship
2026-07-1077.3199.73-0.28near the usual relationship
2026-07-0975.6096.93-0.22near the usual relationship
2026-07-0876.3294.88+0.08near the usual relationship
2026-07-0778.91101.47-0.25near the usual relationship
2026-07-0677.72102.91-0.54SW ahead
2026-07-0278.89103.56-0.46near the usual relationship
2026-07-0176.64103.92-0.79SW ahead
2026-06-3075.49104.31-0.98SW ahead
2026-06-2975.59104.10-0.95SW ahead
2026-06-2675.21105.93-1.18SW ahead
2026-06-2574.34105.61-1.27SW ahead
2026-06-2473.40104.98-1.35SW ahead
2026-06-2371.49100.02-1.14SW ahead
2026-06-2269.11102.34-1.70SW ahead
2026-06-1870.5399.66-1.26SW ahead
2026-06-1769.7897.90-1.20SW ahead
2026-06-1671.7199.32-1.09SW ahead
2026-06-1570.93100.36-1.30SW ahead
2026-06-1270.3597.68-1.13SW ahead
2026-06-1169.8396.26-1.07SW ahead
2026-06-1069.8687.82-0.19near the usual relationship
2026-06-0969.1393.26-0.87SW ahead
2026-06-0867.2291.32-0.94SW ahead
2026-06-0568.1193.08-1.01SW ahead
2026-06-0464.9795.33-1.69SW ahead
2026-06-0365.1794.97-1.64SW ahead
2026-06-0267.0495.24-1.40SW ahead
2026-06-0167.3693.01-1.14SW ahead
2026-05-2967.1292.78-1.16SW ahead
2026-05-2868.8792.49-0.90SW ahead
2026-05-2768.8989.92-0.64SW ahead
2026-05-2667.9388.39-0.62SW ahead
2026-05-2268.1885.79-0.32near the usual relationship
2026-05-2167.9085.10-0.29near the usual relationship
2026-05-2067.0983.72-0.25near the usual relationship
2026-05-1966.3480.32+0.02near the usual relationship
2026-05-1866.3984.22-0.41near the usual relationship
2026-05-1565.9684.51-0.50SW ahead
2026-05-1466.4890.24-1.03SW ahead
2026-05-1366.7491.18-1.10SW ahead
2026-05-1266.9491.50-1.11SW ahead
2026-05-1165.8592.22-1.34SW ahead
2026-05-0867.6193.69-1.26SW ahead
2026-05-0768.4793.87-1.17SW ahead
2026-05-0668.2194.45-1.26SW ahead
2026-05-0566.8589.09-0.93SW ahead
2026-05-0465.7885.61-0.72SW ahead
2026-05-0167.1788.91-0.88SW ahead
2026-04-3067.6986.56-0.58SW ahead
2026-04-2966.0989.47-1.09SW ahead
2026-04-2867.7091.45-1.08SW ahead
2026-04-2767.5790.28-0.99SW ahead
2026-04-2467.2990.10-1.02SW ahead
2026-04-2367.3591.36-1.14SW ahead
2026-04-2266.5489.49-1.07SW ahead
2026-04-2166.4392.94-1.43SW ahead
2026-04-2067.7796.28-1.58SW ahead
2026-04-1767.9795.24-1.46SW ahead
2026-04-1667.3892.90-1.33SW ahead
2026-04-1566.5893.35-1.49SW ahead
2026-04-1466.8294.93-1.61SW ahead
2026-04-1366.4394.95-1.68SW ahead
2026-04-1066.9094.84-1.62SW ahead
2026-04-0967.3795.02-1.59SW ahead
2026-04-0866.7195.33-1.71SW ahead
2026-04-0763.9988.46-1.44SW ahead
2026-04-0666.7090.44-1.28SW ahead
2026-04-0266.1188.59-1.19SW ahead
2026-04-0167.1090.48-1.25SW ahead
2026-03-3166.3489.85-1.30SW ahead
2026-03-3066.2686.25-0.96SW ahead
2026-03-2767.8588.86-1.02SW ahead
2026-03-2667.9891.18-1.24SW ahead
2026-03-2568.3391.70-1.26SW ahead
2026-03-2468.0389.88-1.13SW ahead
2026-03-2368.3987.26-0.83SW ahead
2026-03-2067.5381.65-0.36near the usual relationship
2026-03-1967.7983.27-0.51SW ahead
2026-03-1867.8986.99-0.88SW ahead
2026-03-1769.1090.37-1.07SW ahead
2026-03-1668.9588.88-0.95SW ahead
2026-03-1367.9789.63-1.16SW ahead
2026-03-1267.2789.54-1.25SW ahead
2026-03-1168.8095.15-1.60SW ahead
2026-03-1069.9596.37-1.58SW ahead
2026-03-0970.7394.90-1.36SW ahead
2026-03-0671.9296.62-1.38SW ahead
2026-03-0572.15100.54-1.72SW ahead
2026-03-0472.02101.89-1.88SW ahead
2026-03-0371.96101.92-1.91SW ahead
2026-03-0275.47105.57-1.81SW ahead
2026-02-2776.64106.00-1.72SW ahead
2026-02-2675.91104.78-1.71SW ahead
2026-02-2575.10103.65-1.72SW ahead
2026-02-2476.41103.49-1.56SW ahead
2026-02-2376.00104.37-1.70SW ahead
2026-02-2074.97109.90-2.32SW ahead
2026-02-1974.74112.24-2.57SW ahead
2026-02-1875.58116.89-2.89SW ahead
2026-02-1773.94114.59-2.96SW ahead
2026-02-1375.24116.26-2.98SW ahead
2026-02-1274.45115.94-3.11SW ahead
2026-02-1174.00113.37-2.99SW ahead
2026-02-1072.81103.16-2.21SW ahead
2026-02-0972.0099.32-1.94SW ahead
2026-02-0671.7599.53-2.00SW ahead
2026-02-0571.7097.34-1.78SW ahead
2026-02-0470.98100.09-2.17SW ahead
2026-02-0369.3092.22-1.58SW ahead
2026-02-0268.4394.61-1.98SW ahead
2026-01-3068.7693.87-1.85SW ahead
2026-01-2967.8594.97-2.11SW ahead
2026-01-2868.4595.63-2.09SW ahead
2026-01-2769.2196.87-2.10SW ahead
2026-01-2669.5697.81-2.15SW ahead
2026-01-2370.3098.76-2.13SW ahead
2026-01-2270.2894.21-1.65SW ahead
2026-01-2168.7894.54-1.90SW ahead
2026-01-2069.7992.33-1.51SW ahead
2026-01-1668.3096.30-2.16SW ahead
2026-01-1569.0597.70-2.20SW ahead
2026-01-1468.1996.37-2.20SW ahead
2026-01-1367.9096.23-2.23SW ahead
2026-01-1267.5896.82-2.36SW ahead
2026-01-0967.3496.91-2.42SW ahead
2026-01-0867.9995.38-2.16SW ahead
2026-01-0767.0989.38-1.63SW ahead
2026-01-0667.1592.33-1.96SW ahead
2026-01-0567.4490.35-1.69SW ahead
2026-01-0269.7389.29-1.22SW ahead
2025-12-3169.3887.19-1.02SW ahead
2025-12-3069.8587.58-0.99SW ahead
2025-12-2969.4887.22-0.99SW ahead
2025-12-2669.4687.35-1.01SW ahead
2025-12-2469.5185.98-0.83SW ahead
2025-12-2368.8586.22-0.96SW ahead
2025-12-2268.6285.89-0.95SW ahead
2025-12-1969.2285.93-0.86SW ahead
2025-12-1869.8187.08-0.90SW ahead
2025-12-1770.7985.73-0.59SW ahead
2025-12-1670.5284.98-0.54SW ahead
2025-12-1570.7084.64-0.47near the usual relationship
2025-12-1270.9483.86-0.34near the usual relationship
2025-12-1171.1485.70-0.52SW ahead
2025-12-1070.9383.81-0.32near the usual relationship
2025-12-0970.7679.62+0.16near the usual relationship
2025-12-0870.0481.31-0.14near the usual relationship
2025-12-0570.8181.26-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-12-0472.1782.19+0.06near the usual relationship
2025-12-0372.9981.44+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-12-0273.5577.68+0.79KMB ahead
2025-12-0174.6480.38+0.61KMB ahead
2025-11-2875.0480.47+0.66KMB ahead
2025-11-2674.4780.68+0.57KMB ahead
2025-11-2572.9078.83+0.59KMB ahead
2025-11-2472.2376.01+0.85KMB ahead
2025-11-2172.3376.17+0.86KMB ahead
2025-11-2071.3673.93+1.02KMB ahead
2025-11-1970.4075.92+0.64KMB ahead
2025-11-1871.0176.26+0.69KMB ahead
2025-11-1771.2976.48+0.70KMB ahead
2025-11-1471.5377.32+0.64KMB ahead
2025-11-1371.8379.10+0.47near the usual relationship
2025-11-1271.6079.77+0.36near the usual relationship
2025-11-1170.8580.81+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-11-1070.9080.05+0.25near the usual relationship
2025-11-0771.4280.74+0.24near the usual relationship
2025-11-0669.3080.54-0.01near the usual relationship
2025-11-0568.8181.29-0.16near the usual relationship
2025-11-0469.2181.87-0.17near the usual relationship
2025-11-0370.3382.46-0.09near the usual relationship
2025-10-3182.3383.25+1.29KMB ahead
2025-10-3082.6781.26+1.56KMB ahead
2025-10-2980.2785.32+0.84KMB ahead
2025-10-2882.9897.16-0.07near the usual relationship
2025-10-2782.9597.86-0.14near the usual relationship
2025-10-2481.7997.11-0.21near the usual relationship
2025-10-2381.6797.00-0.21near the usual relationship
2025-10-2282.6796.19-0.03near the usual relationship
2025-10-2182.5695.85-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-10-2083.0195.22+0.09near the usual relationship
2025-10-1783.5293.35+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-10-1682.3293.17+0.21near the usual relationship
2025-10-1582.4794.16+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-10-1482.6495.22+0.04near the usual relationship
2025-10-1382.0293.64+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-10-1082.2391.21+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-10-0982.2296.71-0.16near the usual relationship
2025-10-0882.2797.63-0.24near the usual relationship
2025-10-0784.1392.85+0.42near the usual relationship
2025-10-0682.9090.89+0.48near the usual relationship
2025-10-0384.3094.66+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-10-0284.3394.43+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-10-0184.7596.19+0.16near the usual relationship
2025-09-3085.5195.99+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-09-2984.3595.17+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-09-2684.0694.99+0.20near the usual relationship
2025-09-2583.7195.33+0.13near the usual relationship
2025-09-2485.2397.52+0.09near the usual relationship
2025-09-2385.1598.78-0.04near the usual relationship
2025-09-2285.3298.04+0.05near the usual relationship
2025-09-1985.7098.80+0.01near the usual relationship
2025-09-1886.3199.59+0.00near the usual relationship
2025-09-1786.3799.30+0.03near the usual relationship
2025-09-1685.9999.84-0.06near the usual relationship
2025-09-1586.29100.27-0.07near the usual relationship
2025-09-1288.0299.82+0.14near the usual relationship
2025-09-1189.04102.91-0.04near the usual relationship
2025-09-1088.03102.07-0.07near the usual relationship
2025-09-0990.07102.28+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-09-0889.25105.28-0.23near the usual relationship
2025-09-0589.33105.77-0.27near the usual relationship
2025-09-0488.83104.10-0.18near the usual relationship
2025-09-0388.03105.86-0.41near the usual relationship
2025-09-0288.60106.22-0.39near the usual relationship
2025-08-2988.81106.79-0.42near the usual relationship
2025-08-2888.52104.60-0.27near the usual relationship
2025-08-2789.55102.95-0.03near the usual relationship
2025-08-2689.27104.40-0.19near the usual relationship
2025-08-2589.92103.56-0.06near the usual relationship
2025-08-2291.80103.04+0.16near the usual relationship
2025-08-2191.4498.51+0.51KMB ahead
2025-08-2091.6494.59+0.88KMB ahead
2025-08-1991.4397.34+0.61KMB ahead
2025-08-1890.3296.78+0.55KMB ahead
2025-08-1591.4296.26+0.69KMB ahead
2025-08-1491.7398.58+0.51KMB ahead
2025-08-1392.71101.74+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-08-1291.9199.82+0.40near the usual relationship
2025-08-1192.2697.90+0.59KMB ahead
2025-08-0893.6498.38+0.67KMB ahead
2025-08-0794.0698.76+0.67KMB ahead
2025-08-0694.0096.12+0.88KMB ahead
2025-08-0592.3099.59+0.44near the usual relationship
2025-08-0491.5699.35+0.39near the usual relationship
2025-08-0189.84100.00+0.18near the usual relationship
2025-07-3185.70100.07-0.22near the usual relationship
2025-07-3086.16106.79-0.72SW ahead
2025-07-2987.98108.68-0.69SW ahead
2025-07-2887.24109.43-0.82SW ahead
2025-07-2587.60110.15-0.85SW ahead
2025-07-2487.86108.30-0.69SW ahead
2025-07-2387.84107.80-0.65SW ahead
2025-07-2288.64104.26-0.30near the usual relationship
2025-07-2187.14102.46-0.30near the usual relationship
2025-07-1887.70101.15-0.14near the usual relationship
2025-07-1787.97103.90-0.34near the usual relationship
2025-07-1687.77103.43-0.32near the usual relationship
2025-07-1587.17102.37-0.30near the usual relationship
2025-07-1487.66104.60-0.44near the usual relationship
2025-07-1188.98106.43-0.46near the usual relationship
2025-07-1090.74108.28n/a
2025-07-0990.43106.52n/a
2025-07-0890.37106.25n/a
2025-07-0790.54105.61n/a
2025-07-0390.86108.30n/a
2025-07-0291.03106.38n/a
2025-07-0190.51103.38n/a
2025-06-3088.6697.29n/a
2025-06-2787.9597.09n/a
2025-06-2687.2396.23n/a
2025-06-2588.1395.78n/a
2025-06-2489.3798.08n/a
2025-06-2389.4995.65n/a
2025-06-2088.2395.49n/a
2025-06-1888.0095.58n/a
2025-06-1788.6796.48n/a
2025-06-1689.8697.52n/a
2025-06-1389.9894.66n/a
2025-06-1292.0896.96n/a
2025-06-1191.3697.84n/a
2025-06-1091.4998.78n/a
2025-06-0991.2599.19n/a
2025-06-0691.8497.68n/a
2025-06-0593.0597.11n/a
2025-06-0495.2096.03n/a
2025-06-0395.9496.53n/a
2025-06-0297.4396.10n/a
2025-05-3098.8797.70n/a
2025-05-2998.9299.01n/a
2025-05-2898.1298.11n/a
2025-05-2798.24100.09n/a
2025-05-2397.3598.62n/a
2025-05-2296.11100.29n/a
2025-05-2197.02100.32n/a
2025-05-2097.40103.59n/a
2025-05-1996.82104.60n/a
2025-05-1695.64105.16n/a
2025-05-1594.46105.14n/a
2025-05-1491.82105.10n/a
2025-05-1392.17103.68n/a
2025-05-1293.99101.47n/a
2025-05-0991.5094.48n/a
2025-05-0891.8494.02n/a
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2024-12-3190.12121.44n/a
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2024-10-2294.73100.43n/a
2024-10-2199.1799.66n/a
2024-10-18100.00100.00n/a

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Nov 3, 2025 (KMB -14.6%, SW -0.9%). Upcoming earnings: SW Oct 28, 2026 (pre-market); KMB Oct 29, 2026 (not-supplied); SW Nov 4, 2026 (not-supplied); KMB Nov 5, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

KMB and SW at a glance

KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Listing
Nasdaq · SEC CIK 55785
Industry
Containers/Packaging · SIC 2670 Converted Paper & Paperboard Prods (No Contaners/Boxes)
Market value
$35.1B
Price history
2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

SW Smurfit WestRock plc

Listing
NYSE · SEC CIK 2005951
Industry
Containers/Packaging · SIC 2650 Paperboard Containers & Boxes
Market value
$21.4B
Price history
577 daily closes, Jul 8, 2024 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

Related
All pairs →
PairStatusAhead nowIndustry
SW / PKGPaper ideaPKG by 2.28 sdContainers/Packaging
KMB / PKGWatchlistPKG by 0.37 sdContainers/Packaging
KMB / AVYWatchlistKMB by 0.26 sdSIC 2670 Converted Paper & Paperboard Prods (No Contaners/Boxes)

Follow the research behind the paper book

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Explore the private beta

Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.