Packaging Corporation of America vs Smurfit WestRock plc
Paper ideaPKG / SWPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($21B vs $21B) in Nasdaq's "Containers/Packaging" industry; SEC SIC 2650 / 2650 (same major group); #1 and #2 by market value ($21B vs $21B) with SEC SIC 2650 (Paperboard Containers & Boxes).
Long SW · Short PKG
PKG ran 2.28 standard deviations ahead of SW relative to their usual one-year relationship, and the relationship passes every test. In the shared paper book both legs open together at the next session's open and close together when the gap returns to its usual level (stop at 4 standard deviations). Simulated, never real money.
Business leadership
SW is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | PKG | SW | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $9.0B | $31.2B | SW |
| 2024 | $8.4B | $21.1B | SW |
| 2023 | $7.8B | $12.1B | SW |
| 2022 | $8.5B | $13.5B | SW |
| 2021 | $7.7B | - | - |
| 2020 | $6.7B | - | - |
SW led in every year with figures for both. Market value: PKG $21.1B, SW $21.4B.
Stock leadership
PKG is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
PKG leads SW by 2.28 standard deviations: +10.8% over its usual price ratio. 4 lead switches in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| PKG | -2.2% | +15.8% | +19.6% |
| SW | -12.6% | +4.7% | -0.2% |
Relationship
The gap has closed before
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 577 (needs >= 254)
- Pass
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.77 (needs >= 0.60)
- Pass
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -3.38 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Pass
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 8.39 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
PKG Packaging Corporation of America SW Smurfit WestRock plcPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: PKG relative to SW, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: PKG ahead; below 0: SW ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | PKG index | SW index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 113.08 | 95.67 | +2.28 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 108.58 | 93.48 | +1.90 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 108.54 | 92.87 | +2.06 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-19 | 107.39 | 92.09 | +2.04 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-16 | 107.21 | 92.81 | +1.85 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 105.66 | 92.99 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 104.47 | 91.88 | +1.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 105.24 | 93.46 | +1.31 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 103.50 | 92.60 | +1.15 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 104.72 | 93.10 | +1.30 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 104.46 | 93.46 | +1.17 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 103.24 | 93.10 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 104.37 | 95.58 | +0.65 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 104.17 | 95.63 | +0.60 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 103.83 | 95.92 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-01 | 104.36 | 97.05 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-30 | 104.15 | 99.44 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-29 | 105.98 | 100.07 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-28 | 106.54 | 101.62 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-25 | 107.75 | 104.64 | -0.65 | SW ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 108.17 | 103.72 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-23 | 109.48 | 104.83 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-22 | 108.23 | 104.74 | -0.54 | SW ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 108.26 | 102.39 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-18 | 105.75 | 99.95 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-17 | 107.02 | 102.55 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-16 | 105.15 | 100.52 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-15 | 105.04 | 98.56 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-14 | 105.97 | 98.65 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-11 | 106.49 | 97.45 | +0.71 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-09-10 | 105.58 | 95.17 | +1.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-09-09 | 103.25 | 95.15 | +0.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 105.39 | 99.80 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-04 | 107.78 | 103.34 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-03 | 106.56 | 102.05 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-02 | 106.10 | 102.28 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-01 | 104.09 | 102.44 | -0.68 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 106.28 | 105.75 | -0.88 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-28 | 109.21 | 108.88 | -0.91 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 110.71 | 109.65 | -0.77 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 112.07 | 111.75 | -0.88 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 112.00 | 111.45 | -0.83 | SW ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 113.07 | 109.79 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-21 | 114.84 | 111.36 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-20 | 113.37 | 108.66 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-19 | 114.90 | 109.83 | -0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-18 | 113.71 | 106.65 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-17 | 114.92 | 107.80 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-14 | 116.06 | 111.05 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-13 | 116.78 | 112.78 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-12 | 116.44 | 111.05 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-11 | 116.95 | 111.88 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-10 | 115.73 | 107.31 | +0.52 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 116.32 | 108.86 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-06 | 114.82 | 105.82 | +0.63 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 116.30 | 109.29 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-04 | 116.06 | 109.40 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-03 | 114.07 | 105.70 | +0.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 111.68 | 103.65 | +0.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 112.95 | 107.15 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-29 | 113.32 | 108.82 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-28 | 115.05 | 114.54 | -0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-27 | 114.65 | 112.94 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-24 | 115.57 | 109.49 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-23 | 106.26 | 98.56 | +0.56 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 103.67 | 100.36 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-21 | 103.68 | 97.09 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-20 | 103.78 | 97.27 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-17 | 105.88 | 99.89 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-16 | 106.32 | 100.95 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-15 | 103.52 | 98.29 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-14 | 102.56 | 96.75 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-13 | 102.61 | 97.29 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-10 | 103.93 | 99.73 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-09 | 101.99 | 96.93 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-08 | 101.97 | 94.88 | +0.57 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 105.58 | 101.47 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-06 | 107.39 | 102.91 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-02 | 108.21 | 103.56 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-07-01 | 108.09 | 103.92 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-30 | 108.25 | 104.31 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-29 | 107.96 | 104.10 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-26 | 109.74 | 105.93 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-25 | 109.53 | 105.61 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-24 | 108.05 | 104.98 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-23 | 105.77 | 100.02 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-22 | 106.32 | 102.34 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-18 | 104.04 | 99.66 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-17 | 104.15 | 97.90 | +0.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 104.28 | 99.32 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-15 | 104.47 | 100.36 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-12 | 103.68 | 97.68 | +0.50 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 101.94 | 96.26 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-10 | 98.42 | 87.82 | +1.13 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 103.28 | 93.26 | +1.00 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 99.69 | 91.32 | +0.85 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 101.23 | 93.08 | +0.81 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-04 | 102.08 | 95.33 | +0.64 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 101.94 | 94.97 | +0.67 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 102.14 | 95.24 | +0.67 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 100.70 | 93.01 | +0.78 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 99.45 | 92.78 | +0.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 99.10 | 92.49 | +0.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-27 | 99.03 | 89.92 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-26 | 99.25 | 88.39 | +1.22 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-22 | 98.09 | 85.79 | +1.43 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-21 | 97.11 | 85.10 | +1.42 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-20 | 96.86 | 83.72 | +1.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-19 | 92.30 | 80.32 | +1.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-18 | 95.72 | 84.22 | +1.40 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-15 | 96.35 | 84.51 | +1.44 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-14 | 99.99 | 90.24 | +1.14 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-13 | 99.14 | 91.18 | +0.94 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-12 | 99.92 | 91.50 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-11 | 100.64 | 92.22 | +0.99 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-08 | 102.03 | 93.69 | +0.98 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-07 | 101.50 | 93.87 | +0.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-06 | 103.04 | 94.45 | +1.01 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 101.18 | 89.09 | +1.46 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 99.06 | 85.61 | +1.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 99.06 | 88.91 | +1.28 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 96.97 | 86.56 | +1.35 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 98.15 | 89.47 | +1.13 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 101.12 | 91.45 | +1.22 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 96.56 | 90.28 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 96.71 | 90.10 | +0.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 97.68 | 91.36 | +0.88 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 93.24 | 89.49 | +0.60 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 95.64 | 92.94 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-20 | 96.95 | 96.28 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-17 | 96.94 | 95.24 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-16 | 94.32 | 92.90 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-15 | 94.07 | 93.35 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-14 | 95.37 | 94.93 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-13 | 95.62 | 94.95 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-10 | 93.76 | 94.84 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-09 | 94.55 | 95.02 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-08 | 95.88 | 95.33 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-07 | 92.45 | 88.46 | +0.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 93.31 | 90.44 | +0.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 92.89 | 88.59 | +0.72 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 95.98 | 90.48 | +0.85 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 96.41 | 89.85 | +0.98 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 94.97 | 86.25 | +1.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 96.42 | 88.86 | +1.12 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 96.58 | 91.18 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 96.93 | 91.70 | +0.86 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 96.99 | 89.88 | +1.09 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 94.98 | 87.26 | +1.19 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 92.10 | 81.65 | +1.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 92.85 | 83.27 | +1.47 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 95.14 | 86.99 | +1.28 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 98.11 | 90.37 | +1.21 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 97.65 | 88.88 | +1.35 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 97.45 | 89.63 | +1.24 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 97.24 | 89.54 | +1.24 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 101.12 | 95.15 | +1.01 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 100.55 | 96.37 | +0.82 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 101.22 | 94.90 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 101.09 | 96.62 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 102.77 | 100.54 | +0.62 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 105.65 | 101.89 | +0.78 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 105.13 | 101.92 | +0.73 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 105.04 | 105.57 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-27 | 105.46 | 106.00 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-26 | 105.32 | 104.78 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-25 | 104.91 | 103.65 | +0.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 103.98 | 103.49 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-23 | 102.47 | 104.37 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-20 | 107.76 | 109.90 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-19 | 108.55 | 112.24 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-18 | 108.59 | 116.89 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-17 | 109.20 | 114.59 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-13 | 111.90 | 116.26 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-12 | 111.34 | 115.94 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-11 | 111.10 | 113.37 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-10 | 109.84 | 103.16 | +1.09 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-09 | 108.45 | 99.32 | +1.34 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-06 | 108.51 | 99.53 | +1.33 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 105.36 | 97.34 | +1.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 105.60 | 100.09 | +1.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-03 | 101.95 | 92.22 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 101.64 | 94.61 | +1.23 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 101.10 | 93.87 | +1.26 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 100.04 | 94.97 | +1.06 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 98.86 | 95.63 | +0.89 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 101.59 | 96.87 | +1.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-26 | 100.78 | 97.81 | +0.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 102.39 | 98.76 | +0.94 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 99.38 | 94.21 | +1.11 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 99.95 | 94.54 | +1.14 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 98.63 | 92.33 | +1.25 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 100.55 | 96.30 | +1.04 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 100.84 | 97.70 | +0.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 99.93 | 96.37 | +0.98 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 99.33 | 96.23 | +0.95 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 98.68 | 96.82 | +0.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 99.65 | 96.91 | +0.92 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 97.17 | 95.38 | +0.84 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 93.95 | 89.38 | +1.15 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 96.18 | 92.33 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-05 | 95.92 | 90.35 | +1.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2026-01-02 | 95.91 | 89.29 | +1.39 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-31 | 93.69 | 87.19 | +1.41 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-30 | 94.61 | 87.58 | +1.47 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-29 | 94.84 | 87.22 | +1.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-26 | 94.91 | 87.35 | +1.56 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-24 | 94.19 | 85.98 | +1.66 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-23 | 93.96 | 86.22 | +1.62 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-22 | 93.84 | 85.89 | +1.66 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-19 | 92.14 | 85.93 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-18 | 92.69 | 87.08 | +1.43 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-17 | 91.92 | 85.73 | +1.52 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-16 | 92.52 | 84.98 | +1.69 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-15 | 92.89 | 84.64 | +1.79 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-12 | 93.16 | 83.86 | +1.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-11 | 93.27 | 85.70 | +1.74 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-10 | 92.05 | 83.81 | +1.86 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-09 | 87.86 | 79.62 | +1.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-08 | 89.40 | 81.31 | +1.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-05 | 90.17 | 81.26 | +2.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 89.33 | 82.19 | +1.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-03 | 89.93 | 81.44 | +2.03 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-02 | 87.48 | 77.68 | +2.27 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 92.33 | 80.38 | +2.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 92.71 | 80.47 | +2.61 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 92.45 | 80.68 | +2.59 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 91.43 | 78.83 | +2.78 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 89.64 | 76.01 | +3.04 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 89.64 | 76.17 | +3.09 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 87.08 | 73.93 | +3.17 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 88.27 | 75.92 | +3.08 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 89.33 | 76.26 | +3.25 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-17 | 89.35 | 76.48 | +3.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-14 | 89.60 | 77.32 | +3.26 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-13 | 90.45 | 79.10 | +3.16 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-12 | 91.06 | 79.77 | +3.21 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-11 | 92.23 | 80.81 | +3.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 91.19 | 80.05 | +3.34 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 91.11 | 80.74 | +3.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 89.99 | 80.54 | +3.22 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 90.46 | 81.29 | +3.24 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 89.57 | 81.87 | +3.05 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-11-03 | 88.86 | 82.46 | +2.87 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-31 | 88.93 | 83.25 | +2.75 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 89.12 | 81.26 | +3.21 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 89.34 | 85.32 | +2.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 93.66 | 97.16 | +1.15 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 93.86 | 97.86 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 93.05 | 97.11 | +1.05 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-23 | 96.88 | 97.00 | +1.71 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-22 | 94.83 | 96.19 | +1.50 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-21 | 94.55 | 95.85 | +1.50 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-20 | 93.53 | 95.22 | +1.43 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-17 | 92.37 | 93.35 | +1.55 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-16 | 93.29 | 93.17 | +1.74 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-15 | 95.24 | 94.16 | +1.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-14 | 95.75 | 95.22 | +1.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-13 | 94.38 | 93.64 | +1.88 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 93.93 | 91.21 | +2.26 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-09 | 96.03 | 96.71 | +1.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 96.89 | 97.63 | +1.68 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 95.65 | 92.85 | +2.33 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 96.73 | 90.89 | +2.93 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-03 | 97.47 | 94.66 | +2.41 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 97.96 | 94.43 | +2.58 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 97.61 | 96.19 | +2.23 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 99.01 | 95.99 | +2.56 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 98.25 | 95.17 | +2.62 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 98.11 | 94.99 | +2.67 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 96.83 | 95.33 | +2.40 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 97.82 | 97.52 | +2.19 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 97.09 | 98.78 | +1.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 96.63 | 98.04 | +1.91 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 95.98 | 98.80 | +1.65 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 97.20 | 99.59 | +1.75 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 96.35 | 99.30 | +1.64 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 96.07 | 99.84 | +1.49 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 96.22 | 100.27 | +1.44 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 97.74 | 99.82 | +1.84 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 98.60 | 102.91 | +1.42 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 96.79 | 102.07 | +1.23 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 97.25 | 102.28 | +1.29 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 98.10 | 105.28 | +0.90 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 100.06 | 105.77 | +1.20 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 98.46 | 104.10 | +1.20 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 96.73 | 105.86 | +0.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 98.33 | 106.22 | +0.79 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 99.02 | 106.79 | +0.83 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 98.42 | 104.60 | +1.13 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 95.72 | 102.95 | +0.89 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 96.14 | 104.40 | +0.70 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 96.42 | 103.56 | +0.92 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 96.65 | 103.04 | +1.07 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 95.56 | 98.51 | +1.75 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 90.01 | 94.59 | +1.37 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 90.06 | 97.34 | +0.82 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 88.18 | 96.78 | +0.51 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 87.87 | 96.26 | +0.53 | PKG ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 89.28 | 98.58 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-13 | 91.22 | 101.74 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-12 | 90.39 | 99.82 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-11 | 89.32 | 97.90 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-08 | 89.24 | 98.38 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-07 | 88.52 | 98.76 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-06 | 87.33 | 96.12 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-05 | 87.91 | 99.59 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-04 | 87.72 | 99.35 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-01 | 86.96 | 100.00 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-31 | 88.02 | 100.07 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-30 | 90.15 | 106.79 | -0.99 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 92.25 | 108.68 | -0.88 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 92.76 | 109.43 | -0.90 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 93.83 | 110.15 | -0.79 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 93.55 | 108.30 | -0.53 | SW ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 93.73 | 107.80 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-22 | 93.26 | 104.26 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-21 | 91.49 | 102.46 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-18 | 90.77 | 101.15 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-17 | 91.88 | 103.90 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-16 | 92.03 | 103.43 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-15 | 90.71 | 102.37 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-14 | 92.40 | 104.60 | -0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-11 | 93.54 | 106.43 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-10 | 94.15 | 108.28 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-09 | 92.71 | 106.52 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-08 | 92.12 | 106.25 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-07 | 91.44 | 105.61 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-03 | 91.90 | 108.30 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-02 | 91.74 | 106.38 | n/a | |
| 2025-07-01 | 92.11 | 103.38 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-30 | 85.61 | 97.29 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-27 | 86.05 | 97.09 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-26 | 85.25 | 96.23 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-25 | 84.88 | 95.78 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-24 | 86.05 | 98.08 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-23 | 85.73 | 95.65 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-20 | 84.89 | 95.49 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-18 | 84.60 | 95.58 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-17 | 84.66 | 96.48 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-16 | 86.07 | 97.52 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-13 | 85.66 | 94.66 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-12 | 87.82 | 96.96 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-11 | 87.77 | 97.84 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-10 | 89.61 | 98.78 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-09 | 89.31 | 99.19 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-06 | 89.22 | 97.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-05 | 88.45 | 97.11 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-04 | 87.83 | 96.03 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-03 | 88.17 | 96.53 | n/a | |
| 2025-06-02 | 87.34 | 96.10 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-30 | 87.76 | 97.70 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-29 | 87.68 | 99.01 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-28 | 87.33 | 98.11 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-27 | 88.05 | 100.09 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-23 | 86.63 | 98.62 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-22 | 87.47 | 100.29 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-21 | 86.68 | 100.32 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-20 | 87.94 | 103.59 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-19 | 88.33 | 104.60 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-16 | 88.23 | 105.16 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-15 | 86.66 | 105.14 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-14 | 87.18 | 105.10 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-13 | 85.77 | 103.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-12 | 86.49 | 101.47 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-09 | 82.42 | 94.48 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-08 | 83.33 | 94.02 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-07 | 81.77 | 90.19 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-06 | 81.83 | 89.20 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-05 | 82.33 | 89.33 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-02 | 85.14 | 93.08 | n/a | |
| 2025-05-01 | 83.30 | 91.25 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-30 | 84.32 | 94.75 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-29 | 84.49 | 95.49 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-28 | 84.68 | 95.94 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-25 | 83.96 | 95.22 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-24 | 85.73 | 95.72 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-23 | 83.90 | 94.52 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-22 | 84.69 | 93.66 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-21 | 82.71 | 91.95 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-17 | 85.04 | 93.24 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-16 | 84.84 | 91.93 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-15 | 85.73 | 92.69 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-14 | 86.61 | 93.44 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-11 | 85.83 | 92.00 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-10 | 84.25 | 90.80 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-09 | 86.06 | 96.23 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-08 | 79.94 | 86.11 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-07 | 82.25 | 88.86 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-04 | 83.33 | 92.58 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-03 | 85.93 | 96.30 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-02 | 91.48 | 106.11 | n/a | |
| 2025-04-01 | 90.83 | 102.86 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-31 | 89.96 | 101.60 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-28 | 88.82 | 100.36 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-27 | 90.07 | 102.37 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-26 | 90.63 | 102.10 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-25 | 90.30 | 102.75 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-24 | 91.23 | 101.51 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-21 | 88.32 | 99.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-20 | 89.58 | 103.07 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-19 | 90.17 | 103.72 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-18 | 89.77 | 101.62 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-17 | 90.18 | 102.01 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-14 | 89.41 | 99.82 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-13 | 87.24 | 97.93 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-12 | 89.63 | 99.77 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-11 | 89.70 | 98.22 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-10 | 90.51 | 97.38 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-07 | 93.88 | 104.92 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-06 | 92.59 | 105.39 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-05 | 93.30 | 108.88 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-04 | 91.89 | 105.28 | n/a | |
| 2025-03-03 | 95.13 | 112.97 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-28 | 96.81 | 117.41 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-27 | 95.74 | 116.55 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-26 | 96.65 | 120.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-25 | 96.60 | 119.48 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-24 | 95.28 | 121.42 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-21 | 94.46 | 119.86 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-20 | 95.26 | 121.98 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-19 | 96.45 | 124.74 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-18 | 96.37 | 124.69 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-14 | 96.54 | 120.97 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-13 | 96.38 | 123.22 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-12 | 92.99 | 114.84 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-11 | 94.61 | 120.95 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-10 | 95.14 | 120.70 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-07 | 95.50 | 121.76 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-06 | 96.46 | 123.70 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-05 | 95.56 | 122.98 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-04 | 95.69 | 121.42 | n/a | |
| 2025-02-03 | 95.98 | 120.68 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-31 | 96.61 | 119.71 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-30 | 97.33 | 120.09 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-29 | 97.73 | 120.77 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-28 | 108.31 | 122.53 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-27 | 108.90 | 123.74 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-24 | 109.15 | 126.31 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-23 | 108.69 | 124.62 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-22 | 108.94 | 124.80 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-21 | 110.00 | 123.99 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-17 | 108.06 | 119.41 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-16 | 106.91 | 117.75 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-15 | 106.85 | 119.39 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-14 | 105.69 | 119.35 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-13 | 104.63 | 117.61 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-10 | 103.60 | 116.73 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-08 | 103.83 | 117.09 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-07 | 102.66 | 117.50 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-06 | 103.16 | 120.29 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-03 | 102.62 | 117.93 | n/a | |
| 2025-01-02 | 102.33 | 120.86 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-31 | 102.28 | 121.44 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-30 | 102.20 | 120.90 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-27 | 103.17 | 122.55 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-26 | 104.24 | 122.10 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-24 | 103.95 | 122.95 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-23 | 103.16 | 121.60 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-20 | 103.57 | 120.14 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-19 | 103.33 | 115.40 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-18 | 104.13 | 116.66 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-17 | 105.65 | 121.60 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-16 | 107.71 | 123.34 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-13 | 108.17 | 121.15 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-12 | 108.62 | 120.52 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-11 | 108.41 | 120.59 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-10 | 108.23 | 120.47 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-09 | 108.86 | 122.53 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-06 | 110.33 | 123.13 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-05 | 111.00 | 123.49 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-04 | 110.84 | 123.04 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-03 | 110.87 | 124.51 | n/a | |
| 2024-12-02 | 111.21 | 124.26 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-29 | 113.05 | 124.06 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-27 | 112.23 | 123.47 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-26 | 112.68 | 125.21 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-25 | 112.34 | 126.83 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-22 | 111.93 | 127.71 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-21 | 111.44 | 127.10 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-20 | 110.89 | 125.59 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-19 | 108.26 | 119.86 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-18 | 108.17 | 120.50 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-15 | 107.13 | 116.48 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-14 | 107.03 | 113.53 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-13 | 108.28 | 114.97 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-12 | 108.95 | 114.23 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-11 | 109.71 | 117.95 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-08 | 109.30 | 118.13 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-07 | 108.80 | 120.52 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-06 | 109.75 | 119.98 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-05 | 105.67 | 116.84 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-04 | 104.57 | 116.69 | n/a | |
| 2024-11-01 | 104.48 | 116.03 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-31 | 104.01 | 116.12 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-30 | 103.94 | 112.90 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-29 | 102.70 | 100.81 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-28 | 103.33 | 102.12 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-25 | 102.61 | 103.36 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-24 | 103.36 | 103.40 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-23 | 103.88 | 105.19 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-22 | 98.43 | 100.43 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-21 | 99.54 | 99.66 | n/a | |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | n/a |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 29, 2025 (PKG -4.6%, SW -12.2%); Feb 11, 2026 (PKG +1.1%, SW +9.9%). Upcoming earnings: SW Oct 28, 2026 (pre-market); SW Nov 4, 2026 (not-supplied).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
| Legs | Signal | Entered | Status | Exit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long SW · Short PKG | Oct 19, 2026 (2.04 sd) | Oct 20, 2026 | open | - | -$271.38 if closed now |
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart. One simulated trade is still open (entered Oct 20, 2026).
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
PKG and SW at a glance
PKG Packaging Corporation of America
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 75677
- Industry
- Containers/Packaging · SIC 2650 Paperboard Containers & Boxes
- Market value
- $21.1B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
SW Smurfit WestRock plc
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 2005951
- Industry
- Containers/Packaging · SIC 2650 Paperboard Containers & Boxes
- Market value
- $21.4B
- Price history
- 577 daily closes, Jul 8, 2024 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of PKG and SW
Follow the research behind the paper book
Boostio is a research-first platform in private beta: crypto candidates, daily market stories, public paper trading and now rival stocks. Exploring these pages stays free and open.
Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
