Broadcasting

Skydance Corporation vs Spotify Technology S.A.

WatchlistSKYD / SPOTPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($107B vs $34B) in Nasdaq's "Broadcasting" industry; SEC SIC 4832 / 4833 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.24 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.31 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

Business size

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	SKYD	SPOT	Larger
2024	$29.2B	-	-
2023	$29.7B	-	-

Market value: SKYD $34.3B, SPOT $106.8B.

Stock leadership

SPOT is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

SPOT leads SKYD by 2.18 standard deviations: +31.3% over its usual price ratio. 0 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
SKYD	+15.7%	-15.7%	-42.4%
SPOT	+20.9%	+13.1%	-15.3%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 305 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.24 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.31 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 15.05 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

SKYD Skydance Corporation SPOT Spotify Technology S.A.Price index, 100 = 2025-08-07. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: SKYD relative to SPOT, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: SKYD ahead; below 0: SPOT ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (305 sessions)

Date	SKYD index	SPOT index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	80.94	84.99	-2.18	SPOT ahead
2026-10-21	81.77	76.50	-1.26	SPOT ahead
2026-10-20	73.77	76.61	-2.12	SPOT ahead
2026-10-19	70.65	75.54	-2.39	SPOT ahead
2026-10-16	71.79	77.24	-2.48	SPOT ahead
2026-10-15	75.43	77.67	-2.14	SPOT ahead
2026-10-14	73.35	76.30	-2.26	SPOT ahead
2026-10-13	78.96	76.80	-1.72	SPOT ahead
2026-10-12	78.02	77.00	-1.85	SPOT ahead
2026-10-09	78.02	77.05	-1.87	SPOT ahead
2026-10-08	79.05	76.65	-1.73	SPOT ahead
2026-10-07	75.72	74.69	-1.89	SPOT ahead
2026-10-06	81.18	71.08	-0.91	SPOT ahead
2026-10-05	83.26	70.34	-0.62	SPOT ahead
2026-10-02	80.92	68.86	-0.69	SPOT ahead
2026-10-01	79.56	71.56	-1.14	SPOT ahead
2026-09-30	87.99	70.97	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2026-09-29	85.09	71.88	-0.65	SPOT ahead
2026-09-28	87.56	72.45	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-09-25	84.84	74.27	-0.94	SPOT ahead
2026-09-24	86.71	74.46	-0.80	SPOT ahead
2026-09-23	84.84	74.32	-0.96	SPOT ahead
2026-09-22	86.12	73.00	-0.71	SPOT ahead
2026-09-21	84.41	75.25	-1.11	SPOT ahead
2026-09-18	86.97	74.18	-0.77	SPOT ahead
2026-09-17	90.46	77.01	-0.76	SPOT ahead
2026-09-16	94.85	79.71	-0.67	SPOT ahead
2026-09-15	93.78	81.29	-0.92	SPOT ahead
2026-09-14	92.59	81.01	-1.00	SPOT ahead
2026-09-11	90.29	76.56	-0.75	SPOT ahead
2026-09-10	88.42	75.97	-0.86	SPOT ahead
2026-09-09	87.05	76.16	-1.01	SPOT ahead
2026-09-08	91.99	76.98	-0.66	SPOT ahead
2026-09-04	92.50	78.99	-0.82	SPOT ahead
2026-09-03	94.04	81.56	-0.95	SPOT ahead
2026-09-02	93.44	81.45	-0.99	SPOT ahead
2026-09-01	89.86	79.24	-1.09	SPOT ahead
2026-08-31	92.93	79.16	-0.82	SPOT ahead
2026-08-28	92.68	79.73	-0.90	SPOT ahead
2026-08-27	91.99	76.78	-0.66	SPOT ahead
2026-08-26	91.48	80.09	-1.05	SPOT ahead
2026-08-25	90.89	80.46	-1.15	SPOT ahead
2026-08-24	88.16	78.32	-1.18	SPOT ahead
2026-08-21	88.16	77.72	-1.12	SPOT ahead
2026-08-20	87.65	77.63	-1.16	SPOT ahead
2026-08-19	90.29	77.67	-0.92	SPOT ahead
2026-08-18	88.84	75.18	-0.78	SPOT ahead
2026-08-17	87.56	71.71	-0.52	SPOT ahead
2026-08-14	86.37	74.67	-0.96	SPOT ahead
2026-08-13	84.92	72.55	-0.85	SPOT ahead
2026-08-12	80.92	71.29	-1.06	SPOT ahead
2026-08-11	79.90	72.95	-1.31	SPOT ahead
2026-08-10	78.96	74.53	n/a
2026-08-07	78.28	71.08	n/a
2026-08-06	77.17	69.18	n/a
2026-08-05	74.62	70.22	n/a
2026-08-04	71.38	69.63	n/a
2026-08-03	70.02	70.82	n/a
2026-07-31	67.80	72.80	n/a
2026-07-30	66.52	76.10	n/a
2026-07-29	67.72	76.30	n/a
2026-07-28	68.74	74.49	n/a
2026-07-27	68.40	72.04	n/a
2026-07-24	69.93	70.28	n/a
2026-07-23	72.32	68.29	n/a
2026-07-22	74.79	69.05	n/a
2026-07-21	72.66	71.82	n/a
2026-07-20	73.00	71.69	n/a
2026-07-17	74.53	69.62	n/a
2026-07-16	77.85	69.32	n/a
2026-07-15	78.79	70.68	n/a
2026-07-14	77.68	70.05	n/a
2026-07-13	81.35	69.87	n/a
2026-07-10	80.15	69.86	n/a
2026-07-09	79.47	70.75	n/a
2026-07-08	83.05	70.66	n/a
2026-07-07	84.67	71.93	n/a
2026-07-06	85.95	70.33	n/a
2026-07-02	88.50	70.76	n/a
2026-07-01	86.63	68.80	n/a
2026-06-30	83.99	66.86	n/a
2026-06-29	83.65	67.32	n/a
2026-06-26	82.11	66.99	n/a
2026-06-25	80.32	64.25	n/a
2026-06-24	83.05	66.26	n/a
2026-06-23	82.75	66.33	n/a
2026-06-22	84.24	66.89	n/a
2026-06-18	84.67	68.16	n/a
2026-06-17	85.01	66.34	n/a
2026-06-16	87.73	68.41	n/a
2026-06-15	89.35	69.87	n/a
2026-06-12	89.18	70.19	n/a
2026-06-11	89.35	70.77	n/a
2026-06-10	87.82	73.26	n/a
2026-06-09	87.22	72.26	n/a
2026-06-08	88.50	73.26	n/a
2026-06-05	87.05	72.36	n/a
2026-06-04	90.97	71.87	n/a
2026-06-03	89.01	70.99	n/a
2026-06-02	91.82	73.03	n/a
2026-06-01	93.53	73.94	n/a
2026-05-29	90.38	72.47	n/a
2026-05-28	92.08	75.24	n/a
2026-05-27	90.46	74.68	n/a
2026-05-26	88.33	77.13	n/a
2026-05-22	89.10	75.70	n/a
2026-05-21	87.56	71.34	n/a
2026-05-20	86.29	63.10	n/a
2026-05-19	84.33	64.30	n/a
2026-05-18	83.65	64.80	n/a
2026-05-15	84.24	63.63	n/a
2026-05-14	86.12	62.98	n/a
2026-05-13	89.18	62.75	n/a
2026-05-12	91.06	63.02	n/a
2026-05-11	92.85	61.09	n/a
2026-05-08	94.46	60.84	n/a
2026-05-07	91.65	62.24	n/a
2026-05-06	92.93	61.92	n/a
2026-05-05	90.80	61.09	n/a
2026-05-04	94.80	63.82	n/a
2026-05-01	94.46	64.29	n/a
2026-04-30	87.22	65.02	n/a
2026-04-29	88.07	64.59	n/a
2026-04-28	89.61	63.23	n/a
2026-04-27	90.20	72.20	n/a
2026-04-24	93.44	75.43	n/a
2026-04-23	96.00	75.13	n/a
2026-04-22	100.51	76.14	n/a
2026-04-21	98.89	76.08	n/a
2026-04-20	100.68	78.16	n/a
2026-04-17	100.00	78.14	n/a
2026-04-16	99.91	77.39	n/a
2026-04-15	99.40	77.35	n/a
2026-04-14	94.38	74.46	n/a
2026-04-13	91.40	73.40	n/a
2026-04-10	90.46	69.31	n/a
2026-04-09	92.42	70.86	n/a
2026-04-08	92.16	70.36	n/a
2026-04-07	92.85	70.36	n/a
2026-04-06	83.90	70.55	n/a
2026-04-02	81.09	71.20	n/a
2026-04-01	78.79	68.44	n/a
2026-03-31	76.83	70.61	n/a
2026-03-30	75.98	69.17	n/a
2026-03-27	74.87	68.80	n/a
2026-03-26	75.64	69.63	n/a
2026-03-25	78.62	68.91	n/a
2026-03-24	78.11	70.60	n/a
2026-03-23	77.85	71.70	n/a
2026-03-20	77.94	69.10	n/a
2026-03-19	76.32	70.26	n/a
2026-03-18	76.66	75.24	n/a
2026-03-17	78.62	76.48	n/a
2026-03-16	80.92	76.30	n/a
2026-03-13	82.79	75.15	n/a
2026-03-12	83.48	74.20	n/a
2026-03-11	84.67	74.90	n/a
2026-03-10	87.99	77.21	n/a
2026-03-09	95.32	79.34	n/a
2026-03-06	102.13	82.30	n/a
2026-03-05	100.00	80.40	n/a
2026-03-04	102.64	77.77	n/a
2026-03-03	106.05	75.71	n/a
2026-03-02	113.63	73.87	n/a
2026-02-27	115.08	74.98	n/a
2026-02-26	95.23	72.17	n/a
2026-02-25	86.54	67.46	n/a
2026-02-24	88.50	67.81	n/a
2026-02-23	89.95	68.12	n/a
2026-02-20	91.23	71.44	n/a
2026-02-19	93.19	70.67	n/a
2026-02-18	94.72	69.54	n/a
2026-02-17	92.25	67.39	n/a
2026-02-13	87.90	66.74	n/a
2026-02-12	87.31	64.91	n/a
2026-02-11	93.78	70.94	n/a
2026-02-10	92.33	69.32	n/a
2026-02-09	90.97	60.41	n/a
2026-02-06	89.95	61.54	n/a
2026-02-05	89.61	60.10	n/a
2026-02-04	91.57	64.15	n/a
2026-02-03	92.08	69.02	n/a
2026-02-02	95.23	74.06	n/a
2026-01-30	95.49	72.86	n/a
2026-01-29	95.91	73.38	n/a
2026-01-28	96.59	74.07	n/a
2026-01-27	98.38	74.51	n/a
2026-01-26	101.28	74.64	n/a
2026-01-23	99.66	74.73	n/a
2026-01-22	100.34	72.61	n/a
2026-01-21	98.81	73.13	n/a
2026-01-20	98.38	74.46	n/a
2026-01-16	100.51	73.46	n/a
2026-01-15	100.77	73.98	n/a
2026-01-14	102.90	77.02	n/a
2026-01-13	103.41	77.85	n/a
2026-01-12	103.49	77.18	n/a
2026-01-09	102.73	78.54	n/a
2026-01-08	104.51	80.62	n/a
2026-01-07	105.37	82.95	n/a
2026-01-06	106.47	83.21	n/a
2026-01-05	110.56	86.41	n/a
2026-01-02	112.27	83.73	n/a
2025-12-31	114.14	84.56	n/a
2025-12-30	115.08	83.97	n/a
2025-12-29	114.99	84.63	n/a
2025-12-26	115.76	85.09	n/a
2025-12-24	117.04	85.41	n/a
2025-12-23	115.25	84.37	n/a
2025-12-22	115.93	84.28	n/a
2025-12-19	111.16	84.77	n/a
2025-12-18	110.82	82.10	n/a
2025-12-17	111.58	82.45	n/a
2025-12-16	117.97	84.32	n/a
2025-12-15	119.17	84.04	n/a
2025-12-12	117.04	87.05	n/a
2025-12-11	120.27	87.20	n/a
2025-12-10	125.38	88.74	n/a
2025-12-09	124.70	85.87	n/a
2025-12-08	124.11	83.34	n/a
2025-12-05	113.84	82.26	n/a
2025-12-04	126.24	81.69	n/a
2025-12-03	124.96	81.13	n/a
2025-12-02	134.75	83.99	n/a
2025-12-01	133.82	84.30	n/a
2025-11-28	136.46	87.20	n/a
2025-11-26	134.50	86.30	n/a
2025-11-25	133.22	85.25	n/a
2025-11-24	128.28	85.18	n/a
2025-11-21	135.35	84.98	n/a
2025-11-20	133.56	85.80	n/a
2025-11-19	131.77	90.07	n/a
2025-11-18	137.05	92.68	n/a
2025-11-17	133.99	93.28	n/a
2025-11-14	133.56	92.58	n/a
2025-11-13	130.92	93.97	n/a
2025-11-12	132.62	94.34	n/a
2025-11-11	142.59	93.13	n/a
2025-11-10	129.90	90.71	n/a
2025-11-07	128.62	89.83	n/a
2025-11-06	126.07	90.02	n/a
2025-11-05	128.54	90.28	n/a
2025-11-04	126.41	91.68	n/a
2025-11-03	131.35	93.79	n/a
2025-10-31	131.09	95.42	n/a
2025-10-30	131.69	95.62	n/a
2025-10-29	135.26	96.93	n/a
2025-10-28	138.08	95.15	n/a
2025-10-27	141.10	95.79	n/a
2025-10-24	142.42	94.04	n/a
2025-10-23	140.29	98.12	n/a
2025-10-22	141.14	98.38	n/a
2025-10-21	140.63	100.36	n/a
2025-10-20	144.72	98.37	n/a
2025-10-17	142.85	97.78	n/a
2025-10-16	143.95	96.76	n/a
2025-10-15	148.47	97.75	n/a
2025-10-14	147.27	99.53	n/a
2025-10-13	145.66	100.77	n/a
2025-10-10	144.80	99.79	n/a
2025-10-09	153.07	98.10	n/a
2025-10-08	157.58	98.25	n/a
2025-10-07	157.67	99.08	n/a
2025-10-06	162.95	99.06	n/a
2025-10-03	162.61	99.09	n/a
2025-10-02	158.60	102.99	n/a
2025-10-01	160.90	102.03	n/a
2025-09-30	161.16	101.64	n/a
2025-09-29	166.10	106.08	n/a
2025-09-26	161.16	104.34	n/a
2025-09-25	161.24	103.77	n/a
2025-09-24	162.86	103.19	n/a
2025-09-23	168.06	104.69	n/a
2025-09-22	158.52	107.54	n/a
2025-09-19	161.16	107.02	n/a
2025-09-18	152.26	106.90	n/a
2025-09-17	152.64	102.98	n/a
2025-09-16	149.32	102.52	n/a
2025-09-15	158.26	102.38	n/a
2025-09-12	160.05	101.41	n/a
2025-09-11	148.72	100.52	n/a
2025-09-10	128.71	102.53	n/a
2025-09-09	129.47	104.72	n/a
2025-09-08	129.39	104.59	n/a
2025-09-05	127.77	102.98	n/a
2025-09-04	125.55	102.49	n/a
2025-09-03	128.28	101.54	n/a
2025-09-02	123.17	100.42	n/a
2025-08-29	125.21	99.29	n/a
2025-08-28	125.13	100.15	n/a
2025-08-27	126.15	100.91	n/a
2025-08-26	134.92	101.42	n/a
2025-08-25	135.95	101.17	n/a
2025-08-22	136.29	100.91	n/a
2025-08-21	136.54	100.40	n/a
2025-08-20	119.08	102.48	n/a
2025-08-19	114.82	104.75	n/a
2025-08-18	114.99	106.02	n/a
2025-08-15	116.87	106.71	n/a
2025-08-14	122.49	101.71	n/a
2025-08-13	127.77	101.20	n/a
2025-08-12	93.44	100.38	n/a
2025-08-11	86.20	100.36	n/a
2025-08-08	89.52	102.79	n/a
2025-08-07	100.00	100.00	n/a

No one-day company-specific move of 4+ standard deviations in this window. Upcoming earnings: SKYD Nov 3, 2026 (not-supplied).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

SKYD and SPOT at a glance

SKYD Skydance Corporation

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 2041610
Industry: Broadcasting · SIC 4833 Television Broadcasting Stations
Market value: $34.3B
Price history: 305 daily closes, Aug 7, 2025 to Oct 22, 2026

SPOT Spotify Technology S.A.

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1639920
Industry: Broadcasting · SIC 4832 Radio Broadcasting Stations
Market value: $106.8B
Price history: 2,152 daily closes, Apr 3, 2018 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
SPOT / TME	Watchlist	SPOT by 1.45 sd	SIC 4832 Radio Broadcasting Stations
SKYD / FOXA	Watchlist	FOXA by 1.38 sd	Broadcasting
SKYD / FWONK	Watchlist	FWONK by 0.74 sd	SIC 4833 Television Broadcasting Stations
SPOT / FOXA	Watchlist	SPOT by 0.41 sd	Broadcasting

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.