Oil & Gas Production

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras vs Shell PLC

WatchlistPBR / SHELPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($290B vs $165B) in Nasdaq's "Oil & Gas Production" industry; SEC SIC 1311 / 1311 (same major group); #1 and #3 by market value ($290B vs $165B) with SEC SIC 1311 (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.50 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

Business size

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

No SEC revenue figures for both companies.

Market value: PBR $164.7B, SHEL $289.9B.

Stock leadership

PBR is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

PBR leads SHEL by 1.37 standard deviations: +19.7% over its usual price ratio. 1 lead switch in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
PBR	+36.5%	+20.5%	+121.6%
SHEL	+19.7%	+18.5%	+45.6%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Pass: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.62 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.50 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 59.18 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

PBR Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras SHEL Shell PLCPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: PBR relative to SHEL, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: PBR ahead; below 0: SHEL ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	PBR index	SHEL index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	180.93	157.82	+1.37	PBR ahead
2026-10-21	181.21	157.16	+1.42	PBR ahead
2026-10-20	181.50	157.43	+1.43	PBR ahead
2026-10-19	180.51	156.35	+1.45	PBR ahead
2026-10-16	183.62	159.10	+1.46	PBR ahead
2026-10-15	178.67	154.46	+1.49	PBR ahead
2026-10-14	183.19	154.50	+1.69	PBR ahead
2026-10-13	180.08	153.62	+1.62	PBR ahead
2026-10-12	179.52	151.54	+1.71	PBR ahead
2026-10-09	178.67	149.43	+1.80	PBR ahead
2026-10-08	174.36	149.46	+1.63	PBR ahead
2026-10-07	169.42	144.47	+1.68	PBR ahead
2026-10-06	168.08	145.61	+1.57	PBR ahead
2026-10-05	170.48	143.97	+1.79	PBR ahead
2026-10-02	152.90	143.54	+0.98	PBR ahead
2026-10-01	148.16	142.62	+0.80	PBR ahead
2026-09-30	147.39	141.78	+0.81	PBR ahead
2026-09-29	145.83	141.92	+0.73	PBR ahead
2026-09-28	145.83	143.90	+0.62	PBR ahead
2026-09-25	143.86	142.87	+0.58	PBR ahead
2026-09-24	147.18	142.60	+0.77	PBR ahead
2026-09-23	149.29	142.32	+0.91	PBR ahead
2026-09-22	146.61	140.11	+0.89	PBR ahead
2026-09-21	145.69	139.13	+0.91	PBR ahead
2026-09-18	146.89	141.02	+0.87	PBR ahead
2026-09-17	147.88	142.93	+0.83	PBR ahead
2026-09-16	147.67	142.75	+0.83	PBR ahead
2026-09-15	153.74	147.60	+0.89	PBR ahead
2026-09-14	149.36	143.87	+0.87	PBR ahead
2026-09-11	149.72	144.35	+0.87	PBR ahead
2026-09-10	150.99	143.14	+1.01	PBR ahead
2026-09-09	147.81	142.60	+0.88	PBR ahead
2026-09-08	147.10	142.18	+0.88	PBR ahead
2026-09-04	142.09	138.65	+0.81	PBR ahead
2026-09-03	144.84	137.72	+1.02	PBR ahead
2026-09-02	147.32	138.42	+1.12	PBR ahead
2026-09-01	143.57	139.48	+0.87	PBR ahead
2026-08-31	136.65	136.41	+0.66	PBR ahead
2026-08-28	130.86	135.61	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-08-27	128.88	135.29	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2026-08-26	125.42	135.90	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2026-08-25	126.06	137.56	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2026-08-24	131.36	138.72	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2026-08-21	135.24	139.22	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-08-20	134.25	139.69	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-08-19	130.93	138.38	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2026-08-18	128.39	137.25	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2026-08-17	128.88	136.66	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2026-08-14	126.27	134.95	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2026-08-13	126.34	134.13	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2026-08-12	125.42	134.35	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-08-11	126.62	134.99	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2026-08-10	129.45	134.17	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2026-08-07	126.84	132.01	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2026-08-06	130.79	133.65	+0.55	PBR ahead
2026-08-05	129.66	130.91	+0.65	PBR ahead
2026-08-04	132.20	134.01	+0.62	PBR ahead
2026-08-03	134.60	135.86	+0.66	PBR ahead
2026-07-31	137.01	137.20	+0.72	PBR ahead
2026-07-30	135.03	135.01	+0.74	PBR ahead
2026-07-29	131.29	131.77	+0.72	PBR ahead
2026-07-28	127.61	128.58	+0.69	PBR ahead
2026-07-27	127.12	128.83	+0.66	PBR ahead
2026-07-24	132.56	131.83	+0.80	PBR ahead
2026-07-23	134.18	131.19	+0.94	PBR ahead
2026-07-22	133.40	130.92	+0.92	PBR ahead
2026-07-21	130.93	130.07	+0.83	PBR ahead
2026-07-20	128.46	128.58	+0.78	PBR ahead
2026-07-17	126.91	130.25	+0.60	PBR ahead
2026-07-16	123.38	126.91	+0.59	PBR ahead
2026-07-15	126.13	126.25	+0.80	PBR ahead
2026-07-14	126.55	125.91	+0.85	PBR ahead
2026-07-13	126.27	125.27	+0.88	PBR ahead
2026-07-10	122.32	122.66	+0.80	PBR ahead
2026-07-09	120.27	121.42	+0.75	PBR ahead
2026-07-08	121.75	122.67	+0.77	PBR ahead
2026-07-07	117.66	122.30	+0.54	PBR ahead
2026-07-06	114.83	116.56	+0.73	PBR ahead
2026-07-02	113.77	116.38	+0.67	PBR ahead
2026-07-01	112.92	114.22	+0.76	PBR ahead
2026-06-30	114.12	115.66	+0.76	PBR ahead
2026-06-29	114.97	114.69	+0.88	PBR ahead
2026-06-26	115.04	114.16	+0.93	PBR ahead
2026-06-25	116.67	115.35	+0.96	PBR ahead
2026-06-24	116.17	115.90	+0.90	PBR ahead
2026-06-23	120.27	118.60	+0.99	PBR ahead
2026-06-22	120.13	118.82	+0.98	PBR ahead
2026-06-18	118.29	117.56	+0.95	PBR ahead
2026-06-17	118.57	119.90	+0.82	PBR ahead
2026-06-16	120.41	122.69	+0.77	PBR ahead
2026-06-15	122.46	123.22	+0.87	PBR ahead
2026-06-12	129.80	127.77	+1.05	PBR ahead
2026-06-11	128.81	128.06	+0.98	PBR ahead
2026-06-10	127.90	128.36	+0.92	PBR ahead
2026-06-09	125.85	127.43	+0.85	PBR ahead
2026-06-08	125.35	129.25	+0.72	PBR ahead
2026-06-05	125.35	127.39	+0.84	PBR ahead
2026-06-04	127.54	129.37	+0.86	PBR ahead
2026-06-03	128.46	129.43	+0.92	PBR ahead
2026-06-02	132.20	129.50	+1.14	PBR ahead
2026-06-01	133.19	127.40	+1.33	PBR ahead
2026-05-29	132.56	125.48	+1.43	PBR ahead
2026-05-28	132.98	125.04	+1.49	PBR ahead
2026-05-27	133.90	125.01	+1.56	PBR ahead
2026-05-26	137.01	126.83	+1.64	PBR ahead
2026-05-22	140.54	127.85	+1.80	PBR ahead
2026-05-21	141.45	129.67	+1.76	PBR ahead
2026-05-20	140.04	129.36	+1.71	PBR ahead
2026-05-19	144.14	131.95	+1.80	PBR ahead
2026-05-18	146.19	132.14	+1.93	PBR ahead
2026-05-15	140.75	127.33	+1.94	PBR ahead
2026-05-14	139.69	126.06	+1.99	PBR ahead
2026-05-13	138.35	126.69	+1.89	PBR ahead
2026-05-12	144.77	127.31	+2.26	PBR ahead
2026-05-11	146.54	127.33	+2.39	PBR ahead
2026-05-08	143.57	125.25	+2.40	PBR ahead
2026-05-07	143.86	125.66	+2.42	PBR ahead
2026-05-06	147.67	130.07	+2.39	PBR ahead
2026-05-05	153.74	133.82	+2.53	PBR ahead
2026-05-04	155.44	133.14	+2.72	PBR ahead
2026-05-01	154.66	132.73	+2.76	PBR ahead
2026-04-30	155.58	135.25	+2.69	PBR ahead
2026-04-29	154.31	132.62	+2.85	PBR ahead
2026-04-28	149.93	130.65	+2.78	PBR ahead
2026-04-27	148.02	129.64	+2.78	PBR ahead
2026-04-24	147.39	132.95	+2.54	PBR ahead
2026-04-23	150.21	133.16	+2.76	PBR ahead
2026-04-22	149.58	133.49	+2.75	PBR ahead
2026-04-21	149.36	132.25	+2.89	PBR ahead
2026-04-20	146.61	131.26	+2.83	PBR ahead
2026-04-17	144.42	130.98	+2.75	PBR ahead
2026-04-16	151.84	136.49	+2.90	PBR ahead
2026-04-15	145.06	134.01	+2.65	PBR ahead
2026-04-14	148.38	136.28	+2.76	PBR ahead
2026-04-13	155.16	138.13	+3.17	PBR ahead
2026-04-10	151.91	137.54	+3.04	PBR ahead
2026-04-09	146.12	135.87	+2.78	PBR ahead
2026-04-08	141.10	137.25	+2.28	PBR ahead
2026-04-07	146.26	140.44	+2.45	PBR ahead
2026-04-06	147.32	139.68	+2.63	PBR ahead
2026-04-02	145.20	138.87	+2.56	PBR ahead
2026-04-01	141.81	137.28	+2.44	PBR ahead
2026-03-31	146.54	138.72	+2.75	PBR ahead
2026-03-30	146.96	138.34	+2.86	PBR ahead
2026-03-27	146.68	137.49	+2.96	PBR ahead
2026-03-26	143.57	137.47	+2.73	PBR ahead
2026-03-25	139.97	137.05	+2.47	PBR ahead
2026-03-24	139.48	135.92	+2.56	PBR ahead
2026-03-23	136.09	135.31	+2.32	PBR ahead
2026-03-20	132.77	134.90	+2.06	PBR ahead
2026-03-19	139.69	136.02	+2.64	PBR ahead
2026-03-18	139.62	138.35	+2.44	PBR ahead
2026-03-17	137.78	137.19	+2.40	PBR ahead
2026-03-16	135.38	134.96	+2.41	PBR ahead
2026-03-13	131.14	133.40	+2.16	PBR ahead
2026-03-12	133.97	131.80	+2.65	PBR ahead
2026-03-11	134.11	130.37	+2.87	PBR ahead
2026-03-10	127.05	126.95	+2.51	PBR ahead
2026-03-09	128.25	127.67	+2.59	PBR ahead
2026-03-06	124.29	126.34	+2.31	PBR ahead
2026-03-05	118.15	123.72	+1.89	PBR ahead
2026-03-04	118.43	123.36	+1.97	PBR ahead
2026-03-03	119.77	122.81	+2.21	PBR ahead
2026-03-02	122.32	125.63	+2.20	PBR ahead
2026-02-27	117.44	124.57	+1.71	PBR ahead
2026-02-26	117.30	121.09	+2.08	PBR ahead
2026-02-25	118.01	122.73	+1.95	PBR ahead
2026-02-24	116.81	120.50	+2.04	PBR ahead
2026-02-23	113.98	119.29	+1.82	PBR ahead
2026-02-20	111.51	119.00	+1.52	PBR ahead
2026-02-19	111.30	119.90	+1.37	PBR ahead
2026-02-18	107.98	119.14	+1.03	PBR ahead
2026-02-17	106.07	116.26	+1.11	PBR ahead
2026-02-13	107.27	117.50	+1.11	PBR ahead
2026-02-12	107.70	116.68	+1.25	PBR ahead
2026-02-11	111.79	119.67	+1.39	PBR ahead
2026-02-10	108.26	116.20	+1.35	PBR ahead
2026-02-09	107.84	116.05	+1.30	PBR ahead
2026-02-06	105.01	112.31	+1.37	PBR ahead
2026-02-05	105.23	111.32	+1.50	PBR ahead
2026-02-04	106.92	117.53	+0.99	PBR ahead
2026-02-03	107.91	115.80	+1.28	PBR ahead
2026-02-02	106.14	112.96	+1.37	PBR ahead
2026-01-30	108.33	114.90	+1.40	PBR ahead
2026-01-29	109.60	115.56	+1.46	PBR ahead
2026-01-28	108.62	113.05	+1.61	PBR ahead
2026-01-27	106.07	112.54	+1.37	PBR ahead
2026-01-26	101.27	109.26	+1.16	PBR ahead
2026-01-23	100.85	110.01	+1.01	PBR ahead
2026-01-22	97.25	108.03	+0.78	PBR ahead
2026-01-21	95.41	110.10	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2026-01-20	90.61	109.05	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-01-16	89.62	110.75	-0.51	SHEL ahead
2026-01-15	89.05	109.52	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-01-14	89.41	110.90	-0.57	SHEL ahead
2026-01-13	86.86	109.16	-0.73	SHEL ahead
2026-01-12	83.83	106.89	-0.90	SHEL ahead
2026-01-09	83.90	105.65	-0.76	SHEL ahead
2026-01-08	83.33	104.88	-0.76	SHEL ahead
2026-01-07	81.50	106.71	-1.23	SHEL ahead
2026-01-06	81.71	108.74	-1.42	SHEL ahead
2026-01-05	82.91	111.92	-1.60	SHEL ahead
2026-01-02	84.18	112.53	-1.50	SHEL ahead
2025-12-31	83.69	109.61	-1.27	SHEL ahead
2025-12-30	83.76	110.13	-1.33	SHEL ahead
2025-12-29	81.85	109.07	-1.49	SHEL ahead
2025-12-26	81.57	108.61	-1.49	SHEL ahead
2025-12-24	83.55	108.65	-1.23	SHEL ahead
2025-12-23	83.55	108.99	-1.27	SHEL ahead
2025-12-22	82.77	108.26	-1.31	SHEL ahead
2025-12-19	82.98	107.43	-1.20	SHEL ahead
2025-12-18	82.77	106.37	-1.13	SHEL ahead
2025-12-17	83.12	106.73	-1.12	SHEL ahead
2025-12-16	83.26	105.10	-0.94	SHEL ahead
2025-12-15	86.02	107.74	-0.86	SHEL ahead
2025-12-12	86.02	107.89	-0.88	SHEL ahead
2025-12-11	85.81	108.68	-0.99	SHEL ahead
2025-12-10	86.37	108.71	-0.93	SHEL ahead
2025-12-09	87.01	108.22	-0.81	SHEL ahead
2025-12-08	86.44	108.44	-0.91	SHEL ahead
2025-12-05	85.66	108.91	-1.05	SHEL ahead
2025-12-04	90.96	111.13	-0.64	SHEL ahead
2025-12-03	90.40	112.05	-0.80	SHEL ahead
2025-12-02	89.05	110.32	-0.80	SHEL ahead
2025-12-01	88.63	110.84	-0.90	SHEL ahead
2025-11-28	88.56	110.04	-0.84	SHEL ahead
2025-11-26	89.41	109.50	-0.70	SHEL ahead
2025-11-25	89.12	108.59	-0.65	SHEL ahead
2025-11-24	90.04	109.23	-0.62	SHEL ahead
2025-11-21	90.11	109.29	-0.62	SHEL ahead
2025-11-20	90.25	109.20	-0.60	SHEL ahead
2025-11-19	91.95	109.89	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-11-18	92.73	112.34	-0.63	SHEL ahead
2025-11-17	92.66	112.47	-0.65	SHEL ahead
2025-11-14	93.08	113.01	-0.66	SHEL ahead
2025-11-13	92.02	113.25	-0.80	SHEL ahead
2025-11-12	91.67	113.98	-0.91	SHEL ahead
2025-11-11	95.13	114.87	-0.62	SHEL ahead
2025-11-10	91.88	114.20	-0.91	SHEL ahead
2025-11-07	90.82	112.75	-0.91	SHEL ahead
2025-11-06	85.73	110.71	-1.31	SHEL ahead
2025-11-05	85.73	111.29	-1.37	SHEL ahead
2025-11-04	83.55	109.99	-1.53	SHEL ahead
2025-11-03	83.47	110.96	-1.64	SHEL ahead
2025-10-31	82.20	111.75	-1.88	SHEL ahead
2025-10-30	82.77	111.47	-1.81	SHEL ahead
2025-10-29	83.90	112.69	-1.80	SHEL ahead
2025-10-28	83.83	111.98	-1.76	SHEL ahead
2025-10-27	83.76	112.63	-1.85	SHEL ahead
2025-10-24	82.91	113.13	-2.02	SHEL ahead
2025-10-23	83.62	112.95	-1.94	SHEL ahead
2025-10-22	82.84	111.19	-1.89	SHEL ahead
2025-10-21	81.64	108.40	-1.80	SHEL ahead
2025-10-20	82.56	108.62	-1.72	SHEL ahead
2025-10-17	82.20	108.28	-1.75	SHEL ahead
2025-10-16	81.64	106.46	-1.66	SHEL ahead
2025-10-15	82.20	107.22	-1.68	SHEL ahead
2025-10-14	83.26	106.88	-1.52	SHEL ahead
2025-10-13	83.47	107.53	-1.57	SHEL ahead
2025-10-10	81.92	106.53	-1.69	SHEL ahead
2025-10-09	84.46	109.68	-1.69	SHEL ahead
2025-10-08	86.16	110.56	-1.57	SHEL ahead
2025-10-07	86.72	111.74	-1.63	SHEL ahead
2025-10-06	87.29	110.78	-1.48	SHEL ahead
2025-10-03	87.57	109.20	-1.31	SHEL ahead
2025-10-02	87.85	107.06	-1.07	SHEL ahead
2025-10-01	89.12	108.04	-1.02	SHEL ahead
2025-09-30	89.41	106.70	-0.87	SHEL ahead
2025-09-29	90.75	108.07	-0.85	SHEL ahead
2025-09-26	92.37	109.49	-0.81	SHEL ahead
2025-09-25	92.58	108.73	-0.72	SHEL ahead
2025-09-24	94.99	107.58	-0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-09-23	92.94	106.71	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-09-22	89.83	105.98	-0.78	SHEL ahead
2025-09-19	89.12	105.59	-0.83	SHEL ahead
2025-09-18	90.47	106.56	-0.78	SHEL ahead
2025-09-17	91.24	106.52	-0.69	SHEL ahead
2025-09-16	91.38	107.89	-0.81	SHEL ahead
2025-09-15	90.75	106.91	-0.80	SHEL ahead
2025-09-12	89.19	106.41	-0.94	SHEL ahead
2025-09-11	89.41	107.43	-1.02	SHEL ahead
2025-09-10	90.11	108.37	-1.03	SHEL ahead
2025-09-09	87.08	107.28	-1.29	SHEL ahead
2025-09-08	86.44	106.97	-1.35	SHEL ahead
2025-09-05	86.23	106.80	-1.37	SHEL ahead
2025-09-04	87.43	107.86	-1.34	SHEL ahead
2025-09-03	86.94	108.50	-1.47	SHEL ahead
2025-09-02	87.64	110.07	-1.55	SHEL ahead
2025-08-29	87.57	110.20	-1.59	SHEL ahead
2025-08-28	87.29	110.28	-1.64	SHEL ahead
2025-08-27	86.16	109.95	-1.77	SHEL ahead
2025-08-26	85.38	109.87	-1.88	SHEL ahead
2025-08-25	86.30	110.11	-1.81	SHEL ahead
2025-08-22	87.08	109.37	-1.66	SHEL ahead
2025-08-21	84.39	108.13	-1.89	SHEL ahead
2025-08-20	84.18	107.53	-1.88	SHEL ahead
2025-08-19	83.62	106.58	-1.88	SHEL ahead
2025-08-18	85.59	106.67	-1.65	SHEL ahead
2025-08-15	85.24	107.17	-1.76	SHEL ahead
2025-08-14	85.31	108.35	-1.90	SHEL ahead
2025-08-13	86.23	108.52	-1.81	SHEL ahead
2025-08-12	86.44	107.77	-1.73	SHEL ahead
2025-08-11	85.52	106.52	-1.73	SHEL ahead
2025-08-08	85.59	106.88	-1.78	SHEL ahead
2025-08-07	92.37	106.46	-0.87	SHEL ahead
2025-08-06	91.88	107.76	-1.07	SHEL ahead
2025-08-05	91.17	108.00	-1.19	SHEL ahead
2025-08-04	90.11	107.17	-1.25	SHEL ahead
2025-08-01	89.62	107.40	-1.34	SHEL ahead
2025-07-31	89.97	107.71	-1.34	SHEL ahead
2025-07-30	91.31	106.98	-1.10	SHEL ahead
2025-07-29	90.68	109.05	-1.41	SHEL ahead
2025-07-28	88.63	107.71	-1.55	SHEL ahead
2025-07-25	88.98	107.38	-1.48	SHEL ahead
2025-07-24	89.34	107.97	-1.51	SHEL ahead
2025-07-23	89.34	108.53	-1.59	SHEL ahead
2025-07-22	86.58	106.13	-1.71	SHEL ahead
2025-07-21	85.73	104.89	-1.71	SHEL ahead
2025-07-18	84.82	104.83	-1.85	SHEL ahead
2025-07-17	86.86	104.92	-1.59	SHEL ahead
2025-07-16	87.29	105.41	-1.60	SHEL ahead
2025-07-15	88.28	105.01	-1.43	SHEL ahead
2025-07-14	88.98	106.06	-1.47	SHEL ahead
2025-07-11	90.54	107.85	-1.47	SHEL ahead
2025-07-10	90.61	107.85	-1.48	SHEL ahead
2025-07-09	90.96	107.00	-1.34	SHEL ahead
2025-07-08	92.73	106.29	-1.03	SHEL ahead
2025-07-07	90.61	104.15	-1.07	SHEL ahead
2025-07-03	92.23	107.28	-1.23	SHEL ahead
2025-07-02	91.45	107.82	-1.40	SHEL ahead
2025-07-01	88.91	106.19	-1.58	SHEL ahead
2025-06-30	88.35	105.03	-1.54	SHEL ahead
2025-06-27	87.43	105.88	-1.79	SHEL ahead
2025-06-26	87.99	105.89	-1.72	SHEL ahead
2025-06-25	86.65	103.58	-1.65	SHEL ahead
2025-06-24	87.64	104.62	-1.65	SHEL ahead
2025-06-23	89.69	105.67	-1.49	SHEL ahead
2025-06-20	92.30	108.00	-1.41	SHEL ahead
2025-06-18	91.81	107.40	-1.42	SHEL ahead
2025-06-17	92.30	107.89	-1.42	SHEL ahead
2025-06-16	89.97	106.55	-1.61	SHEL ahead
2025-06-13	89.69	108.20	-1.87	SHEL ahead
2025-06-12	87.57	106.56	-2.01	SHEL ahead
2025-06-11	85.24	105.94	-2.33	SHEL ahead
2025-06-10	81.99	104.49	-2.71	SHEL ahead
2025-06-09	79.31	101.82	-2.87	SHEL ahead
2025-06-06	79.94	101.46	-2.76	SHEL ahead
2025-06-05	78.81	100.73	-2.92	SHEL ahead
2025-06-04	78.46	100.34	-2.99	SHEL ahead
2025-06-03	82.63	101.18	-2.40	SHEL ahead
2025-06-02	81.99	100.61	-2.47	SHEL ahead
2025-05-30	81.50	98.78	-2.32	SHEL ahead
2025-05-29	82.77	99.11	-2.17	SHEL ahead
2025-05-28	82.84	98.51	-2.09	SHEL ahead
2025-05-27	84.18	99.48	-2.02	SHEL ahead
2025-05-23	83.62	98.90	-2.06	SHEL ahead
2025-05-22	83.40	98.37	-2.04	SHEL ahead
2025-05-21	84.11	98.99	-2.03	SHEL ahead
2025-05-20	84.89	99.37	-1.97	SHEL ahead
2025-05-19	85.03	99.45	-1.98	SHEL ahead
2025-05-16	84.89	99.37	-2.02	SHEL ahead
2025-05-15	85.10	100.52	-2.18	SHEL ahead
2025-05-14	85.81	100.07	-2.00	SHEL ahead
2025-05-13	86.09	100.85	-2.09	SHEL ahead
2025-05-12	85.24	99.02	-1.96	SHEL ahead
2025-05-09	83.33	98.67	-2.29	SHEL ahead
2025-05-08	82.27	97.08	-2.26	SHEL ahead
2025-05-07	79.94	97.03	-2.76	SHEL ahead
2025-05-06	79.80	97.11	-2.83	SHEL ahead
2025-05-05	79.10	97.14	-3.02	SHEL ahead
2025-05-02	81.99	99.40	-2.85	SHEL ahead
2025-05-01	80.16	96.66	-2.80	SHEL ahead
2025-04-30	79.73	96.18	-2.85	SHEL ahead
2025-04-29	81.36	97.72	-2.81	SHEL ahead
2025-04-28	81.29	98.48	-3.01	SHEL ahead
2025-04-25	81.07	98.24	-3.07	SHEL ahead
2025-04-24	80.65	97.03	-3.00	SHEL ahead
2025-04-23	81.00	96.23	-2.82	SHEL ahead
2025-04-22	81.14	97.21	-3.03	SHEL ahead
2025-04-21	81.29	96.43	-2.92	SHEL ahead
2025-04-17	82.06	97.02	-2.91	SHEL ahead
2025-04-16	79.24	95.51	-3.35	SHEL ahead
2025-04-15	79.59	93.65	-2.96	SHEL ahead
2025-04-14	81.85	93.29	-2.39	SHEL ahead
2025-04-11	81.64	92.62	-2.33	SHEL ahead
2025-04-10	79.80	89.17	-2.06	SHEL ahead
2025-04-09	86.23	95.30	-1.87	SHEL ahead
2025-04-08	80.93	89.13	-1.81	SHEL ahead
2025-04-07	84.82	92.96	-1.74	SHEL ahead
2025-04-04	92.73	95.66	-0.54	SHEL ahead
2025-04-03	98.94	104.07	-0.93	SHEL ahead
2025-04-02	101.62	108.47	-1.23	SHEL ahead
2025-04-01	102.12	108.96	-1.23	SHEL ahead
2025-03-31	101.27	109.31	-1.47	SHEL ahead
2025-03-28	101.55	108.49	-1.28	SHEL ahead
2025-03-27	101.62	109.32	-1.43	SHEL ahead
2025-03-26	101.20	108.93	-1.46	SHEL ahead
2025-03-25	100.78	107.44	-1.28	SHEL ahead
2025-03-24	98.66	106.32	-1.51	SHEL ahead
2025-03-21	100.00	105.92	-1.17	SHEL ahead
2025-03-20	99.08	107.32	-1.63	SHEL ahead
2025-03-19	99.08	106.68	-1.53	SHEL ahead
2025-03-18	98.02	105.86	-1.60	SHEL ahead
2025-03-17	98.16	104.56	-1.33	SHEL ahead
2025-03-14	94.84	102.58	-1.65	SHEL ahead
2025-03-13	89.90	101.04	-2.47	SHEL ahead
2025-03-12	89.48	100.51	-2.49	SHEL ahead
2025-03-11	89.05	99.66	-2.39	SHEL ahead
2025-03-10	90.25	99.63	-2.08	SHEL ahead
2025-03-07	91.60	99.63	-1.77	SHEL ahead
2025-03-06	90.75	98.46	-1.70	SHEL ahead
2025-03-05	91.60	98.60	-1.54	SHEL ahead
2025-03-04	91.53	98.75	-1.57	SHEL ahead
2025-03-03	92.80	99.13	-1.38	SHEL ahead
2025-02-28	94.28	100.63	-1.33	SHEL ahead
2025-02-27	95.41	100.34	-1.07	SHEL ahead
2025-02-26	101.13	100.54	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-02-25	101.98	99.79	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-02-24	102.75	99.78	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-02-21	104.24	99.49	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-02-20	105.37	102.00	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-02-19	104.73	100.84	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-02-18	104.24	101.16	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-02-14	101.13	100.13	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-02-13	96.82	100.49	-0.81	SHEL ahead
2025-02-12	96.68	99.58	-0.71	SHEL ahead
2025-02-11	98.87	100.51	-0.55	SHEL ahead
2025-02-10	98.09	98.64	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-02-07	96.89	98.28	-0.53	SHEL ahead
2025-02-06	97.95	98.69	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-02-05	98.31	99.24	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-02-04	99.79	99.39	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-02-03	100.42	97.21	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-01-31	100.35	98.22	-0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-01-30	99.79	99.42	-0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-01-29	98.09	96.63	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-01-28	98.52	96.33	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-01-27	98.02	97.17	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-01-24	96.96	97.54	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-01-23	97.46	99.43	-0.64	SHEL ahead
2025-01-22	97.95	98.37	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-01-21	97.53	99.60	-0.66	SHEL ahead
2025-01-17	96.89	99.52	-0.73	SHEL ahead
2025-01-16	97.32	99.12	-0.65	SHEL ahead
2025-01-15	97.46	98.99	-0.62	SHEL ahead
2025-01-14	95.76	98.31	-0.75	SHEL ahead
2025-01-13	95.48	96.90	-0.63	SHEL ahead
2025-01-10	95.20	96.87	-0.66	SHEL ahead
2025-01-08	94.63	96.54	-0.70	SHEL ahead
2025-01-07	95.27	98.34	-0.83	SHEL ahead
2025-01-06	92.73	96.58	-0.93	SHEL ahead
2025-01-03	91.95	96.24	-0.99	SHEL ahead
2025-01-02	93.50	94.12	-0.58	SHEL ahead
2024-12-31	90.82	93.45	-0.82	SHEL ahead
2024-12-30	90.04	92.15	-0.77	SHEL ahead
2024-12-27	89.05	92.02	-0.88	SHEL ahead
2024-12-26	92.44	91.53	-0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-12-24	92.02	91.65	-0.50	SHEL ahead
2024-12-23	91.31	91.23	-0.54	SHEL ahead
2024-12-20	92.09	90.45	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-12-19	91.45	90.66	-0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-12-18	90.68	90.44	-0.53	SHEL ahead
2024-12-17	95.48	92.30	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2024-12-16	93.86	92.71	-0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-12-13	96.12	94.78	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-12-12	100.71	95.47	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2024-12-11	103.11	96.26	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2024-12-10	101.20	96.03	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2024-12-09	100.14	96.51	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2024-12-06	97.88	94.35	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2024-12-05	100.92	95.99	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2024-12-04	99.08	95.78	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-12-03	100.00	97.37	-0.30	near the usual relationship
2024-12-02	99.86	95.97	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2024-11-29	100.85	96.57	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2024-11-27	101.41	96.82	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2024-11-26	103.60	96.64	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2024-11-25	104.45	97.03	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2024-11-22	105.23	98.49	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2024-11-21	99.93	98.85	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2024-11-20	100.85	97.60	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2024-11-19	100.35	98.17	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-11-18	102.05	98.93	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2024-11-15	99.65	97.66	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2024-11-14	98.80	98.14	-0.55	SHEL ahead
2024-11-13	97.53	97.67	-0.64	SHEL ahead
2024-11-12	96.89	97.81	-0.72	SHEL ahead
2024-11-11	96.19	99.70	-1.01	SHEL ahead
2024-11-08	96.61	100.03	-1.00	SHEL ahead
2024-11-07	95.20	102.34	-1.40	SHEL ahead
2024-11-06	94.63	101.95	-1.44	SHEL ahead
2024-11-05	93.57	101.76	-1.55	SHEL ahead
2024-11-04	93.08	101.04	-1.55	SHEL ahead
2024-11-01	92.58	100.67	-1.58	SHEL ahead
2024-10-31	94.99	100.76	-1.33	SHEL ahead
2024-10-30	95.13	97.82	-1.00	SHEL ahead
2024-10-29	96.19	97.37	-0.84	SHEL ahead
2024-10-28	97.39	98.51	-0.84	SHEL ahead
2024-10-25	97.39	99.72	-0.98	SHEL ahead
2024-10-24	96.96	99.06	-0.96	SHEL ahead
2024-10-23	96.40	99.24	-1.05	SHEL ahead
2024-10-22	98.02	99.96	-0.95	SHEL ahead
2024-10-21	98.59	100.01	-0.90	SHEL ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	-0.75	SHEL ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Aug 8, 2025 (PBR -7.3%, SHEL +0.4%); Oct 5, 2026 (PBR +11.5%, SHEL +0.3%). Upcoming earnings: SHEL Oct 29, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

PBR and SHEL at a glance

PBR Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1119639
Industry: Oil & Gas Production · SIC 1311 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
Market value: $164.7B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

SHEL Shell PLC

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1306965
Industry: Oil & Gas Production · SIC 1311 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
Market value: $289.9B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
TTE / PBR	Watchlist	PBR by 2.65 sd	Oil & Gas Production
SHEL / TTE	Watchlist	SHEL by 1.46 sd	Oil & Gas Production

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.