Military/Government/Technical

Lockheed Martin Corporation vs Transdigm Group Incorporated

WatchlistLMT / TDGPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($127B vs $63B) in Nasdaq's "Military/Government/Technical" industry; SEC SIC 3760 / 3728 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.28 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.44 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

LMT is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	LMT	TDG	Larger
2025	$75.0B	$8.8B	LMT
2024	$71.0B	$7.9B	LMT
2023	$67.6B	$6.6B	LMT
2022	$66.0B	$5.4B	LMT
2021	$67.0B	$4.8B	LMT
2020	$65.4B	$5.1B	LMT

LMT led in every year with figures for both. Market value: LMT $126.5B, TDG $63.2B.

Stock leadership

LMT is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

LMT leads TDG by 1.32 standard deviations: +18.9% over its usual price ratio. 2 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
LMT	+1.3%	+11.3%	+20.5%
TDG	-7.7%	-2.1%	-14.1%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2520 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.28 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.44 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 47.39 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation TDG Transdigm Group IncorporatedPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: LMT relative to TDG, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: LMT ahead; below 0: TDG ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	LMT index	TDG index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	96.42	81.72	+1.32	LMT ahead
2026-10-21	90.14	80.83	+0.90	LMT ahead
2026-10-20	89.69	81.81	+0.77	LMT ahead
2026-10-19	89.61	81.77	+0.78	LMT ahead
2026-10-16	90.24	81.55	+0.86	LMT ahead
2026-10-15	87.06	81.18	+0.62	LMT ahead
2026-10-14	85.36	79.43	+0.64	LMT ahead
2026-10-13	82.38	79.62	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-10-12	83.67	80.16	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-10-09	83.29	79.30	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-10-08	83.01	77.97	+0.59	LMT ahead
2026-10-07	81.60	78.46	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2026-10-06	83.38	78.97	+0.53	LMT ahead
2026-10-05	82.81	78.21	+0.56	LMT ahead
2026-10-02	82.61	78.04	+0.56	LMT ahead
2026-10-01	82.62	78.53	+0.52	LMT ahead
2026-09-30	83.24	77.49	+0.69	LMT ahead
2026-09-29	83.72	78.72	+0.62	LMT ahead
2026-09-28	84.68	79.39	+0.65	LMT ahead
2026-09-25	84.92	79.89	+0.62	LMT ahead
2026-09-24	85.60	79.11	+0.77	LMT ahead
2026-09-23	85.76	79.11	+0.79	LMT ahead
2026-09-22	85.38	79.62	+0.71	LMT ahead
2026-09-21	87.51	79.42	+0.92	LMT ahead
2026-09-18	87.18	77.73	+1.07	LMT ahead
2026-09-17	87.95	77.01	+1.21	LMT ahead
2026-09-16	87.81	77.31	+1.18	LMT ahead
2026-09-15	87.19	77.66	+1.10	LMT ahead
2026-09-14	86.53	79.53	+0.87	LMT ahead
2026-09-11	85.68	81.62	+0.61	LMT ahead
2026-09-10	86.65	80.66	+0.79	LMT ahead
2026-09-09	85.72	80.57	+0.72	LMT ahead
2026-09-08	87.63	81.96	+0.76	LMT ahead
2026-09-04	85.86	83.17	+0.51	LMT ahead
2026-09-03	87.11	82.87	+0.65	LMT ahead
2026-09-02	86.88	82.58	+0.66	LMT ahead
2026-09-01	89.00	82.72	+0.83	LMT ahead
2026-08-31	91.73	83.87	+0.96	LMT ahead
2026-08-28	92.16	84.88	+0.91	LMT ahead
2026-08-27	92.49	84.92	+0.94	LMT ahead
2026-08-26	92.45	86.39	+0.82	LMT ahead
2026-08-25	90.96	85.36	+0.80	LMT ahead
2026-08-24	92.21	85.82	+0.86	LMT ahead
2026-08-21	92.12	85.91	+0.85	LMT ahead
2026-08-20	93.41	84.49	+1.08	LMT ahead
2026-08-19	96.30	87.53	+1.05	LMT ahead
2026-08-18	99.24	88.31	+1.20	LMT ahead
2026-08-17	97.05	88.60	+1.03	LMT ahead
2026-08-14	99.49	89.96	+1.10	LMT ahead
2026-08-13	97.74	89.20	+1.04	LMT ahead
2026-08-12	99.17	88.43	+1.21	LMT ahead
2026-08-11	97.71	88.90	+1.08	LMT ahead
2026-08-10	98.59	87.57	+1.25	LMT ahead
2026-08-07	96.10	87.70	+1.07	LMT ahead
2026-08-06	95.27	90.33	+0.82	LMT ahead
2026-08-05	94.41	89.80	+0.80	LMT ahead
2026-08-04	96.33	91.26	+0.83	LMT ahead
2026-08-03	95.83	92.01	+0.75	LMT ahead
2026-07-31	95.25	89.78	+0.87	LMT ahead
2026-07-30	93.84	89.46	+0.80	LMT ahead
2026-07-29	93.04	90.51	+0.68	LMT ahead
2026-07-28	95.01	93.62	+0.61	LMT ahead
2026-07-27	94.80	92.06	+0.70	LMT ahead
2026-07-24	95.23	88.52	+0.96	LMT ahead
2026-07-23	92.94	86.88	+0.93	LMT ahead
2026-07-22	84.07	85.51	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-07-21	82.88	86.28	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2026-07-20	83.28	86.23	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-07-17	83.16	86.92	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2026-07-16	83.93	88.12	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2026-07-15	84.09	88.19	+0.30	near the usual relationship
2026-07-14	84.17	86.99	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2026-07-13	85.10	88.39	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2026-07-10	85.52	92.43	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2026-07-09	84.71	92.74	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2026-07-08	86.29	92.79	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-07-07	87.51	95.17	+0.13	near the usual relationship
2026-07-06	87.94	96.35	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2026-07-02	89.23	96.52	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-07-01	85.29	93.70	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2026-06-30	83.27	95.34	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2026-06-29	82.06	94.72	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-06-26	82.93	94.80	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2026-06-25	82.55	95.38	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2026-06-24	80.36	94.67	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2026-06-23	82.32	92.88	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2026-06-22	80.68	92.75	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2026-06-18	83.51	95.07	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2026-06-17	87.01	94.24	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2026-06-16	87.60	93.13	+0.30	near the usual relationship
2026-06-15	86.69	91.42	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-06-12	88.32	89.90	+0.55	LMT ahead
2026-06-11	89.68	90.01	+0.63	LMT ahead
2026-06-10	85.81	86.77	+0.59	LMT ahead
2026-06-09	86.65	89.99	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-06-08	85.01	86.34	+0.58	LMT ahead
2026-06-05	85.61	88.66	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-06-04	84.84	87.90	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-06-03	83.69	86.72	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-06-02	83.92	89.25	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-06-01	84.42	88.64	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-05-29	86.70	90.06	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-05-28	87.81	90.55	+0.53	LMT ahead
2026-05-27	86.81	88.82	+0.58	LMT ahead
2026-05-26	87.10	87.75	+0.66	LMT ahead
2026-05-22	87.16	86.86	+0.73	LMT ahead
2026-05-21	85.45	86.56	+0.65	LMT ahead
2026-05-20	85.42	85.75	+0.70	LMT ahead
2026-05-19	86.08	84.39	+0.83	LMT ahead
2026-05-18	86.35	84.63	+0.84	LMT ahead
2026-05-15	84.34	82.24	+0.87	LMT ahead
2026-05-14	85.06	84.37	+0.79	LMT ahead
2026-05-13	84.98	85.99	+0.69	LMT ahead
2026-05-12	85.16	85.26	+0.75	LMT ahead
2026-05-11	83.73	85.79	+0.63	LMT ahead
2026-05-08	82.79	86.97	+0.51	LMT ahead
2026-05-07	83.75	88.89	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-05-06	84.06	88.28	+0.52	LMT ahead
2026-05-05	83.18	85.27	+0.65	LMT ahead
2026-05-04	84.69	82.29	+0.94	LMT ahead
2026-05-01	83.81	82.63	+0.87	LMT ahead
2026-04-30	84.66	83.02	+0.90	LMT ahead
2026-04-29	83.33	81.79	+0.90	LMT ahead
2026-04-28	83.73	82.60	+0.88	LMT ahead
2026-04-27	83.91	82.91	+0.88	LMT ahead
2026-04-24	83.92	82.18	+0.94	LMT ahead
2026-04-23	86.59	83.44	+1.03	LMT ahead
2026-04-22	90.78	85.01	+1.19	LMT ahead
2026-04-21	93.48	86.29	+1.28	LMT ahead
2026-04-20	95.01	91.23	+1.07	LMT ahead
2026-04-17	96.79	90.60	+1.22	LMT ahead
2026-04-16	99.29	87.91	+1.53	LMT ahead
2026-04-15	99.88	91.23	+1.37	LMT ahead
2026-04-14	99.96	92.80	+1.30	LMT ahead
2026-04-13	101.29	88.26	+1.66	LMT ahead
2026-04-10	100.31	86.40	+1.74	LMT ahead
2026-04-09	101.97	87.72	+1.76	LMT ahead
2026-04-08	102.73	87.31	+1.85	LMT ahead
2026-04-07	102.60	83.71	+2.10	LMT ahead
2026-04-06	104.26	85.15	+2.13	LMT ahead
2026-04-02	101.79	83.53	+2.13	LMT ahead
2026-04-01	100.95	83.98	+2.08	LMT ahead
2026-03-31	98.79	82.95	+2.05	LMT ahead
2026-03-30	97.84	81.08	+2.15	LMT ahead
2026-03-27	100.66	81.60	+2.31	LMT ahead
2026-03-26	102.54	82.45	+2.40	LMT ahead
2026-03-25	102.03	82.77	+2.38	LMT ahead
2026-03-24	99.73	83.22	+2.24	LMT ahead
2026-03-23	100.73	82.52	+2.39	LMT ahead
2026-03-20	102.55	84.27	+2.41	LMT ahead
2026-03-19	104.20	85.31	+2.47	LMT ahead
2026-03-18	104.98	85.88	+2.52	LMT ahead
2026-03-17	104.01	88.22	+2.33	LMT ahead
2026-03-16	105.46	89.31	+2.37	LMT ahead
2026-03-13	105.59	86.94	+2.60	LMT ahead
2026-03-12	106.70	87.75	+2.65	LMT ahead
2026-03-11	106.16	90.06	+2.48	LMT ahead
2026-03-10	106.44	90.78	+2.49	LMT ahead
2026-03-09	108.55	91.47	+2.62	LMT ahead
2026-03-06	109.80	92.65	+2.66	LMT ahead
2026-03-05	107.06	92.69	+2.52	LMT ahead
2026-03-04	108.61	94.13	+2.55	LMT ahead
2026-03-03	109.15	94.93	+2.57	LMT ahead
2026-03-02	110.61	94.21	+2.78	LMT ahead
2026-02-27	107.56	93.25	+2.70	LMT ahead
2026-02-26	104.87	94.07	+2.48	LMT ahead
2026-02-25	105.83	92.70	+2.71	LMT ahead
2026-02-24	108.60	92.61	+2.98	LMT ahead
2026-02-23	107.98	92.77	+2.99	LMT ahead
2026-02-20	107.59	95.84	+2.75	LMT ahead
2026-02-19	108.94	95.20	+2.97	LMT ahead
2026-02-18	106.21	94.14	+2.91	LMT ahead
2026-02-17	106.17	93.20	+3.06	LMT ahead
2026-02-13	106.66	92.09	+3.28	LMT ahead
2026-02-12	104.19	92.76	+3.08	LMT ahead
2026-02-11	102.76	94.92	+2.82	LMT ahead
2026-02-10	102.90	93.90	+2.99	LMT ahead
2026-02-09	104.33	93.05	+3.28	LMT ahead
2026-02-06	101.92	92.01	+3.24	LMT ahead
2026-02-05	99.57	90.42	+3.26	LMT ahead
2026-02-04	98.52	90.53	+3.23	LMT ahead
2026-02-03	102.69	93.18	+3.44	LMT ahead
2026-02-02	103.95	102.75	+2.63	LMT ahead
2026-01-30	103.66	102.17	+2.71	LMT ahead
2026-01-29	101.75	101.78	+2.60	LMT ahead
2026-01-28	97.62	101.07	+2.26	LMT ahead
2026-01-27	97.24	102.15	+2.13	LMT ahead
2026-01-26	95.07	102.78	+1.84	LMT ahead
2026-01-23	96.57	101.58	+2.15	LMT ahead
2026-01-22	97.07	101.67	+2.22	LMT ahead
2026-01-21	95.82	103.78	+1.87	LMT ahead
2026-01-20	94.16	103.68	+1.70	LMT ahead
2026-01-16	95.20	103.78	+1.82	LMT ahead
2026-01-15	94.46	102.60	+1.87	LMT ahead
2026-01-14	93.61	101.91	+1.86	LMT ahead
2026-01-13	91.25	98.91	+1.92	LMT ahead
2026-01-12	90.10	99.21	+1.76	LMT ahead
2026-01-09	88.74	99.64	+1.55	LMT ahead
2026-01-08	84.74	98.59	+1.15	LMT ahead
2026-01-07	81.21	99.15	+0.60	LMT ahead
2026-01-06	85.33	99.09	+1.16	LMT ahead
2026-01-05	83.62	97.91	+1.06	LMT ahead
2026-01-02	81.25	97.24	+0.81	LMT ahead
2025-12-31	79.06	95.18	+0.74	LMT ahead
2025-12-30	79.76	94.22	+0.96	LMT ahead
2025-12-29	79.91	94.19	+0.98	LMT ahead
2025-12-26	78.95	93.71	+0.90	LMT ahead
2025-12-24	79.40	94.02	+0.92	LMT ahead
2025-12-23	78.87	94.09	+0.84	LMT ahead
2025-12-22	79.04	93.17	+0.97	LMT ahead
2025-12-19	77.50	91.39	+0.96	LMT ahead
2025-12-18	76.84	90.38	+0.98	LMT ahead
2025-12-17	77.60	90.30	+1.10	LMT ahead
2025-12-16	77.98	90.94	+1.07	LMT ahead
2025-12-15	79.18	92.48	+1.04	LMT ahead
2025-12-12	78.50	92.66	+0.92	LMT ahead
2025-12-11	77.62	94.30	+0.59	LMT ahead
2025-12-10	76.48	93.25	+0.55	LMT ahead
2025-12-09	76.31	94.34	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-12-08	76.07	96.42	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-12-05	73.91	96.40	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-12-04	73.28	97.35	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-12-03	73.03	95.72	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-12-02	72.22	96.17	-0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-12-01	71.79	96.97	-0.58	TDG ahead
2025-11-28	74.84	97.35	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-11-26	74.23	96.98	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-11-25	73.95	96.81	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-11-24	73.73	95.61	-0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-11-21	75.31	96.43	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-11-20	76.54	95.04	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-11-19	76.81	95.99	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-11-18	77.59	96.70	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-11-17	76.95	95.61	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-11-14	76.13	95.95	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-11-13	74.51	94.84	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-11-12	74.70	93.62	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-11-11	74.71	92.62	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-11-10	73.90	92.25	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-11-07	74.92	91.96	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-11-06	76.64	91.01	+0.55	LMT ahead
2025-11-05	77.33	90.63	+0.66	LMT ahead
2025-11-04	79.27	92.47	+0.70	LMT ahead
2025-11-03	79.75	93.05	+0.69	LMT ahead
2025-10-31	80.40	93.65	+0.70	LMT ahead
2025-10-30	80.04	93.49	+0.67	LMT ahead
2025-10-29	79.33	94.19	+0.52	LMT ahead
2025-10-28	79.40	95.56	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-10-27	79.59	96.94	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2025-10-24	79.34	97.29	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-10-23	79.77	96.62	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-10-22	79.62	94.06	+0.51	LMT ahead
2025-10-21	80.01	95.13	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-10-20	82.69	93.17	+0.90	LMT ahead
2025-10-17	80.93	90.60	+0.95	LMT ahead
2025-10-16	80.62	89.43	+1.02	LMT ahead
2025-10-15	81.63	88.59	+1.20	LMT ahead
2025-10-14	82.57	93.94	+0.79	LMT ahead
2025-10-13	82.35	92.55	+0.89	LMT ahead
2025-10-10	82.55	91.47	+1.00	LMT ahead
2025-10-09	82.99	91.29	+1.05	LMT ahead
2025-10-08	84.02	92.03	+1.07	LMT ahead
2025-10-07	83.53	91.93	+1.03	LMT ahead
2025-10-06	84.05	92.45	+1.03	LMT ahead
2025-10-03	82.46	92.25	+0.89	LMT ahead
2025-10-02	81.62	91.89	+0.83	LMT ahead
2025-10-01	81.56	93.10	+0.71	LMT ahead
2025-09-30	81.60	94.34	+0.61	LMT ahead
2025-09-29	80.41	92.28	+0.66	LMT ahead
2025-09-26	79.67	92.74	+0.54	LMT ahead
2025-09-25	79.17	92.33	+0.52	LMT ahead
2025-09-24	79.48	93.05	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-09-23	79.55	93.00	+0.50	LMT ahead
2025-09-22	78.52	92.71	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-09-19	77.30	91.79	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-09-18	77.41	92.05	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-09-17	77.33	91.33	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-09-16	77.53	91.74	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-09-15	77.35	92.20	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-09-12	77.04	91.00	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-09-11	76.94	92.57	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-09-10	75.82	92.14	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-09-09	74.71	93.91	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-09-08	75.04	92.56	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-09-05	75.82	90.97	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-09-04	74.67	91.74	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-09-03	73.40	91.51	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-09-02	73.96	93.40	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-08-29	74.47	100.12	-0.66	TDG ahead
2025-08-28	74.56	100.06	-0.66	TDG ahead
2025-08-27	74.28	99.85	-0.67	TDG ahead
2025-08-26	74.44	101.16	-0.76	TDG ahead
2025-08-25	73.18	99.49	-0.77	TDG ahead
2025-08-22	72.93	100.81	-0.90	TDG ahead
2025-08-21	73.09	99.71	-0.81	TDG ahead
2025-08-20	72.90	100.36	-0.89	TDG ahead
2025-08-19	72.10	100.04	-0.95	TDG ahead
2025-08-18	72.02	99.50	-0.93	TDG ahead
2025-08-15	71.52	99.34	-0.97	TDG ahead
2025-08-14	71.48	101.11	-1.11	TDG ahead
2025-08-13	72.34	102.05	-1.10	TDG ahead
2025-08-12	70.54	100.97	-1.22	TDG ahead
2025-08-11	69.67	100.89	-1.31	TDG ahead
2025-08-08	69.57	99.47	-1.23	TDG ahead
2025-08-07	70.41	102.29	-1.35	TDG ahead
2025-08-06	71.08	100.29	-1.15	TDG ahead
2025-08-05	70.00	101.42	-1.35	TDG ahead
2025-08-04	69.25	115.16	-2.39	TDG ahead
2025-08-01	68.81	113.44	-2.36	TDG ahead
2025-07-31	68.81	115.12	-2.50	TDG ahead
2025-07-30	68.43	116.01	-2.65	TDG ahead
2025-07-29	68.67	115.00	-2.60	TDG ahead
2025-07-28	68.87	114.98	-2.62	TDG ahead
2025-07-25	68.84	115.05	-2.67	TDG ahead
2025-07-24	68.74	114.46	-2.69	TDG ahead
2025-07-23	68.55	114.36	-2.76	TDG ahead
2025-07-22	67.14	112.45	-2.85	TDG ahead
2025-07-21	75.27	113.35	-2.01	TDG ahead
2025-07-18	75.83	114.32	-2.04	TDG ahead
2025-07-17	76.69	114.18	-1.96	TDG ahead
2025-07-16	77.06	112.70	-1.83	TDG ahead
2025-07-15	76.84	112.77	-1.88	TDG ahead
2025-07-14	77.40	112.72	-1.83	TDG ahead
2025-07-11	76.41	110.44	-1.78	TDG ahead
2025-07-10	75.89	110.19	-1.84	TDG ahead
2025-07-09	75.69	109.25	-1.81	TDG ahead
2025-07-08	75.68	109.52	-1.85	TDG ahead
2025-07-07	76.67	109.09	-1.72	TDG ahead
2025-07-03	75.60	109.01	-1.85	TDG ahead
2025-07-02	75.60	108.19	-1.80	TDG ahead
2025-07-01	76.16	108.28	-1.76	TDG ahead
2025-06-30	75.70	108.84	-1.88	TDG ahead
2025-06-27	74.96	107.30	-1.86	TDG ahead
2025-06-26	74.84	105.35	-1.72	TDG ahead
2025-06-25	74.92	104.30	-1.63	TDG ahead
2025-06-24	75.22	105.42	-1.70	TDG ahead
2025-06-23	77.22	105.26	-1.45	TDG ahead
2025-06-20	76.91	103.24	-1.32	TDG ahead
2025-06-18	76.59	101.24	-1.18	TDG ahead
2025-06-17	78.35	102.02	-1.04	TDG ahead
2025-06-16	76.34	102.16	-1.30	TDG ahead
2025-06-13	79.51	103.04	-1.00	TDG ahead
2025-06-12	76.70	102.77	-1.32	TDG ahead
2025-06-11	74.63	102.32	-1.55	TDG ahead
2025-06-10	77.95	102.57	-1.17	TDG ahead
2025-06-09	78.59	104.50	-1.27	TDG ahead
2025-06-06	78.73	104.92	-1.30	TDG ahead
2025-06-05	78.13	103.39	-1.23	TDG ahead
2025-06-04	78.82	103.69	-1.18	TDG ahead
2025-06-03	78.48	104.21	-1.27	TDG ahead
2025-06-02	78.26	104.05	-1.29	TDG ahead
2025-05-30	78.84	105.10	-1.32	TDG ahead
2025-05-29	77.42	104.55	-1.45	TDG ahead
2025-05-28	76.82	104.53	-1.53	TDG ahead
2025-05-27	77.94	104.05	-1.36	TDG ahead
2025-05-23	76.64	102.46	-1.38	TDG ahead
2025-05-22	76.89	100.57	-1.17	TDG ahead
2025-05-21	76.87	100.77	-1.20	TDG ahead
2025-05-20	77.77	102.32	-1.24	TDG ahead
2025-05-19	77.32	103.07	-1.37	TDG ahead
2025-05-16	76.55	101.86	-1.37	TDG ahead
2025-05-15	76.03	100.61	-1.32	TDG ahead
2025-05-14	73.42	99.57	-1.57	TDG ahead
2025-05-13	75.16	101.34	-1.52	TDG ahead
2025-05-12	77.34	101.43	-1.26	TDG ahead
2025-05-09	77.40	98.31	-0.94	TDG ahead
2025-05-08	77.56	99.13	-1.00	TDG ahead
2025-05-07	77.04	98.97	-1.06	TDG ahead
2025-05-06	76.53	99.62	-1.20	TDG ahead
2025-05-05	77.08	105.40	-1.70	TDG ahead
2025-05-02	77.28	103.80	-1.54	TDG ahead
2025-05-01	78.08	102.65	-1.33	TDG ahead
2025-04-30	78.09	101.14	-1.18	TDG ahead
2025-04-29	77.78	100.77	-1.19	TDG ahead
2025-04-28	77.85	99.90	-1.10	TDG ahead
2025-04-25	78.07	98.64	-0.95	TDG ahead
2025-04-24	76.30	97.91	-1.11	TDG ahead
2025-04-23	75.77	96.77	-1.07	TDG ahead
2025-04-22	75.53	93.61	-0.77	TDG ahead
2025-04-21	74.91	93.51	-0.84	TDG ahead
2025-04-17	75.85	95.74	-0.96	TDG ahead
2025-04-16	77.98	95.64	-0.67	TDG ahead
2025-04-15	76.75	97.41	-1.03	TDG ahead
2025-04-14	77.69	95.70	-0.72	TDG ahead
2025-04-11	77.62	93.98	-0.54	TDG ahead
2025-04-10	75.79	92.92	-0.67	TDG ahead
2025-04-09	75.55	94.27	-0.86	TDG ahead
2025-04-08	72.47	88.16	-0.60	TDG ahead
2025-04-07	70.42	89.43	-1.05	TDG ahead
2025-04-04	70.63	88.60	-0.92	TDG ahead
2025-04-03	74.33	97.59	-1.41	TDG ahead
2025-04-02	74.02	100.17	-1.74	TDG ahead
2025-04-01	73.33	100.02	-1.84	TDG ahead
2025-03-31	73.01	99.01	-1.80	TDG ahead
2025-03-28	72.16	98.57	-1.89	TDG ahead
2025-03-27	72.29	99.08	-1.95	TDG ahead
2025-03-26	72.76	99.78	-1.97	TDG ahead
2025-03-25	72.26	99.78	-2.07	TDG ahead
2025-03-24	71.10	98.80	-2.16	TDG ahead
2025-03-21	71.87	96.35	-1.78	TDG ahead
2025-03-20	76.29	97.39	-1.24	TDG ahead
2025-03-19	76.91	98.15	-1.25	TDG ahead
2025-03-18	76.70	96.08	-1.04	TDG ahead
2025-03-17	76.43	97.26	-1.23	TDG ahead
2025-03-14	76.20	96.37	-1.16	TDG ahead
2025-03-13	76.48	95.21	-0.99	TDG ahead
2025-03-12	75.43	94.86	-1.11	TDG ahead
2025-03-11	76.64	94.47	-0.88	TDG ahead
2025-03-10	78.32	95.63	-0.78	TDG ahead
2025-03-07	77.42	96.02	-0.96	TDG ahead
2025-03-06	75.43	96.24	-1.29	TDG ahead
2025-03-05	75.26	98.42	-1.58	TDG ahead
2025-03-04	73.36	96.61	-1.67	TDG ahead
2025-03-03	73.87	98.11	-1.78	TDG ahead
2025-02-28	73.61	97.86	-1.81	TDG ahead
2025-02-27	72.97	96.59	-1.77	TDG ahead
2025-02-26	72.16	95.39	-1.77	TDG ahead
2025-02-25	73.30	95.46	-1.60	TDG ahead
2025-02-24	71.96	93.98	-1.65	TDG ahead
2025-02-21	72.04	92.34	-1.43	TDG ahead
2025-02-20	71.31	93.94	-1.77	TDG ahead
2025-02-19	70.77	96.08	-2.16	TDG ahead
2025-02-18	70.04	93.01	-1.91	TDG ahead
2025-02-14	69.17	94.06	-2.22	TDG ahead
2025-02-13	71.05	95.62	-2.12	TDG ahead
2025-02-12	72.24	96.87	-2.10	TDG ahead
2025-02-11	73.45	97.44	-1.99	TDG ahead
2025-02-10	73.26	95.57	-1.80	TDG ahead
2025-02-07	72.64	95.00	-1.85	TDG ahead
2025-02-06	73.31	93.00	-1.47	TDG ahead
2025-02-05	73.53	92.44	-1.37	TDG ahead
2025-02-04	74.15	93.59	-1.43	TDG ahead
2025-02-03	74.44	96.82	-1.83	TDG ahead
2025-01-31	75.67	96.86	-1.64	TDG ahead
2025-01-30	75.13	97.69	-1.87	TDG ahead
2025-01-29	74.26	95.83	-1.79	TDG ahead
2025-01-28	74.77	95.16	-1.62	TDG ahead
2025-01-27	82.33	96.21	-0.50	TDG ahead
2025-01-24	81.23	96.04	-0.66	TDG ahead
2025-01-23	81.28	96.62	-0.74	TDG ahead
2025-01-22	81.62	96.91	-0.73	TDG ahead
2025-01-21	82.75	97.20	-0.59	TDG ahead
2025-01-17	80.14	95.91	-0.84	TDG ahead
2025-01-16	79.58	94.62	-0.76	TDG ahead
2025-01-15	79.10	92.58	-0.56	TDG ahead
2025-01-14	79.18	93.10	-0.63	TDG ahead
2025-01-13	78.97	91.50	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-01-10	76.50	90.33	-0.70	TDG ahead
2025-01-08	76.63	91.78	-0.88	TDG ahead
2025-01-07	75.83	89.62	-0.72	TDG ahead
2025-01-06	76.17	89.56	-0.66	TDG ahead
2025-01-03	78.75	91.30	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-01-02	78.82	89.76	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2024-12-31	79.43	90.70	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2024-12-30	79.01	91.61	-0.51	TDG ahead
2024-12-27	79.92	92.39	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2024-12-26	80.09	93.13	-0.56	TDG ahead
2024-12-24	79.78	93.16	-0.61	TDG ahead
2024-12-23	79.52	92.37	-0.56	TDG ahead
2024-12-20	79.93	91.34	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-12-19	78.40	90.19	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2024-12-18	78.94	88.68	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2024-12-17	80.19	91.20	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-12-16	80.36	91.62	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2024-12-13	80.85	90.12	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2024-12-12	81.17	88.79	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2024-12-11	82.42	89.23	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2024-12-10	83.84	90.30	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2024-12-09	83.36	90.07	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-12-06	83.85	91.56	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2024-12-05	84.58	92.53	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2024-12-04	84.59	93.60	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2024-12-03	84.50	90.09	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2024-12-02	85.05	90.22	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-11-29	86.53	89.68	+0.64	LMT ahead
2024-11-27	85.93	89.42	+0.59	LMT ahead
2024-11-26	85.23	90.37	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-11-25	85.30	90.25	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-11-22	88.63	90.21	+0.81	LMT ahead
2024-11-21	88.59	88.76	+0.97	LMT ahead
2024-11-20	87.40	92.55	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-11-19	87.16	89.51	+0.69	LMT ahead
2024-11-18	86.79	89.64	+0.63	LMT ahead
2024-11-15	87.42	89.76	+0.69	LMT ahead
2024-11-14	88.10	91.02	+0.62	LMT ahead
2024-11-13	91.16	97.56	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2024-11-12	92.51	97.01	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2024-11-11	93.26	98.40	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-11-08	92.28	96.69	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-11-07	90.20	95.15	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2024-11-06	90.19	98.96	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2024-11-05	89.37	95.74	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2024-11-04	88.77	94.15	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2024-11-01	89.14	93.37	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-10-31	89.25	93.21	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-10-30	89.23	95.17	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2024-10-29	89.37	95.63	+0.13	near the usual relationship
2024-10-28	90.74	95.84	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-10-25	91.91	96.97	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-10-24	92.22	96.31	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2024-10-23	93.35	97.17	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-10-22	94.31	96.65	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2024-10-21	100.46	99.26	+0.75	LMT ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	+0.63	LMT ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Jan 28, 2025 (LMT -9.2%, TDG -1.1%); Jul 22, 2025 (LMT -10.8%, TDG -0.8%); Aug 5, 2025 (LMT +1.1%, TDG -11.9%); Feb 3, 2026 (LMT -1.2%, TDG -9.3%).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

LMT and TDG at a glance

LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 936468
Industry: Military/Government/Technical · SIC 3760 Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts
Market value: $126.5B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

TDG Transdigm Group Incorporated

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1260221
Industry: Military/Government/Technical · SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC
Market value: $63.2B
Price history: 2,520 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
LMT / RKLB	Watchlist	LMT by 1.72 sd	SIC 3760 Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts
TDG / ESLT	Watchlist	ESLT by 0.57 sd	SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC
TDG / ARXS	Short history	neither	SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.