SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC

Elbit Systems Ltd. vs Transdigm Group Incorporated

WatchlistESLT / TDGPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($63B vs $35B) with SEC SIC 3728 (Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.20 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.82 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

TDG is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	ESLT	TDG	Larger
2025	$7.9B	$8.8B	TDG
2024	$6.8B	$7.9B	TDG
2023	$6.0B	$6.6B	TDG
2022	$5.5B	$5.4B	ESLT
2021	$5.3B	$4.8B	ESLT
2020	$4.7B	$5.1B	TDG

Revenue lead switched: 2021 to ESLT, 2023 to TDG. Market value: ESLT $35.3B, TDG $63.2B.

Stock leadership

ESLT is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

ESLT leads TDG by 0.57 standard deviations: +14.3% over its usual price ratio. 0 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
ESLT	-9.4%	-12.8%	+53.3%
TDG	-7.7%	-2.1%	-14.1%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2520 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.20 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.82 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 48.84 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd. TDG Transdigm Group IncorporatedPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: ESLT relative to TDG, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: ESLT ahead; below 0: TDG ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	ESLT index	TDG index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	350.13	81.72	+0.57	ESLT ahead
2026-10-21	349.89	80.83	+0.61	ESLT ahead
2026-10-20	350.65	81.81	+0.58	ESLT ahead
2026-10-19	357.78	81.77	+0.67	ESLT ahead
2026-10-16	355.88	81.55	+0.67	ESLT ahead
2026-10-15	349.37	81.18	+0.62	ESLT ahead
2026-10-14	330.42	79.43	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-10-13	314.54	79.62	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2026-10-12	308.02	80.16	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-10-09	308.92	79.30	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2026-10-08	313.32	77.97	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-10-07	315.23	78.46	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-10-06	325.58	78.97	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-10-05	334.18	78.21	+0.62	ESLT ahead
2026-10-02	327.99	78.04	+0.56	ESLT ahead
2026-10-01	327.73	78.53	+0.54	ESLT ahead
2026-09-30	321.29	77.49	+0.52	ESLT ahead
2026-09-29	331.36	78.72	+0.59	ESLT ahead
2026-09-28	331.78	79.39	+0.56	ESLT ahead
2026-09-25	346.26	79.89	+0.72	ESLT ahead
2026-09-24	348.48	79.11	+0.79	ESLT ahead
2026-09-23	349.79	79.11	+0.81	ESLT ahead
2026-09-22	350.85	79.62	+0.80	ESLT ahead
2026-09-21	353.65	79.42	+0.85	ESLT ahead
2026-09-18	350.19	77.73	+0.90	ESLT ahead
2026-09-17	352.65	77.01	+0.97	ESLT ahead
2026-09-16	347.75	77.31	+0.91	ESLT ahead
2026-09-15	344.73	77.66	+0.87	ESLT ahead
2026-09-14	341.50	79.53	+0.74	ESLT ahead
2026-09-11	342.96	81.62	+0.67	ESLT ahead
2026-09-10	341.03	80.66	+0.70	ESLT ahead
2026-09-09	336.55	80.57	+0.65	ESLT ahead
2026-09-08	333.78	81.96	+0.56	ESLT ahead
2026-09-04	331.31	83.17	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-09-03	330.34	82.87	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-09-02	334.10	82.58	+0.56	ESLT ahead
2026-09-01	333.87	82.72	+0.55	ESLT ahead
2026-08-31	330.01	83.87	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-08-28	333.86	84.88	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-08-27	338.57	84.92	+0.52	ESLT ahead
2026-08-26	340.36	86.39	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-08-25	340.25	85.36	+0.53	ESLT ahead
2026-08-24	344.09	85.82	+0.56	ESLT ahead
2026-08-21	349.24	85.91	+0.62	ESLT ahead
2026-08-20	350.34	84.49	+0.70	ESLT ahead
2026-08-19	354.41	87.53	+0.62	ESLT ahead
2026-08-18	374.86	88.31	+0.79	ESLT ahead
2026-08-17	368.79	88.60	+0.73	ESLT ahead
2026-08-14	369.16	89.96	+0.69	ESLT ahead
2026-08-13	367.28	89.20	+0.70	ESLT ahead
2026-08-12	367.23	88.43	+0.74	ESLT ahead
2026-08-11	365.61	88.90	+0.71	ESLT ahead
2026-08-10	398.57	87.57	+1.08	ESLT ahead
2026-08-07	404.74	87.70	+1.13	ESLT ahead
2026-08-06	403.73	90.33	+1.03	ESLT ahead
2026-08-05	407.15	89.80	+1.09	ESLT ahead
2026-08-04	400.09	91.26	+0.97	ESLT ahead
2026-08-03	391.08	92.01	+0.87	ESLT ahead
2026-07-31	380.95	89.78	+0.87	ESLT ahead
2026-07-30	370.26	89.46	+0.79	ESLT ahead
2026-07-29	362.32	90.51	+0.69	ESLT ahead
2026-07-28	385.64	93.62	+0.79	ESLT ahead
2026-07-27	382.94	92.06	+0.83	ESLT ahead
2026-07-24	386.40	88.52	+1.00	ESLT ahead
2026-07-23	380.93	86.88	+1.02	ESLT ahead
2026-07-22	373.43	85.51	+1.01	ESLT ahead
2026-07-21	364.93	86.28	+0.91	ESLT ahead
2026-07-20	355.61	86.23	+0.83	ESLT ahead
2026-07-17	349.34	86.92	+0.76	ESLT ahead
2026-07-16	347.88	88.12	+0.70	ESLT ahead
2026-07-15	344.50	88.19	+0.68	ESLT ahead
2026-07-14	346.87	86.99	+0.75	ESLT ahead
2026-07-13	346.45	88.39	+0.70	ESLT ahead
2026-07-10	354.17	92.43	+0.63	ESLT ahead
2026-07-09	358.45	92.74	+0.67	ESLT ahead
2026-07-08	367.48	92.79	+0.75	ESLT ahead
2026-07-07	366.48	95.17	+0.67	ESLT ahead
2026-07-06	382.07	96.35	+0.77	ESLT ahead
2026-07-02	378.41	96.52	+0.74	ESLT ahead
2026-07-01	358.03	93.70	+0.66	ESLT ahead
2026-06-30	357.43	95.34	+0.61	ESLT ahead
2026-06-29	345.15	94.72	+0.53	ESLT ahead
2026-06-26	337.17	94.80	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-06-25	345.18	95.38	+0.52	ESLT ahead
2026-06-24	353.75	94.67	+0.62	ESLT ahead
2026-06-23	363.90	92.88	+0.78	ESLT ahead
2026-06-22	364.92	92.75	+0.79	ESLT ahead
2026-06-18	371.33	95.07	+0.78	ESLT ahead
2026-06-17	387.16	94.24	+0.94	ESLT ahead
2026-06-16	387.24	93.13	+0.98	ESLT ahead
2026-06-15	383.78	91.42	+1.02	ESLT ahead
2026-06-12	402.35	89.90	+1.22	ESLT ahead
2026-06-11	430.21	90.01	+1.43	ESLT ahead
2026-06-10	385.82	86.77	+1.22	ESLT ahead
2026-06-09	394.59	89.99	+1.19	ESLT ahead
2026-06-08	391.09	86.34	+1.30	ESLT ahead
2026-06-05	387.88	88.66	+1.20	ESLT ahead
2026-06-04	394.75	87.90	+1.29	ESLT ahead
2026-06-03	390.92	86.72	+1.32	ESLT ahead
2026-06-02	400.03	89.25	+1.31	ESLT ahead
2026-06-01	404.23	88.64	+1.37	ESLT ahead
2026-05-29	414.99	90.06	+1.41	ESLT ahead
2026-05-28	420.52	90.55	+1.45	ESLT ahead
2026-05-27	390.45	88.82	+1.29	ESLT ahead
2026-05-26	401.57	87.75	+1.42	ESLT ahead
2026-05-22	361.72	86.86	+1.15	ESLT ahead
2026-05-21	359.79	86.56	+1.15	ESLT ahead
2026-05-20	362.20	85.75	+1.21	ESLT ahead
2026-05-19	363.22	84.39	+1.28	ESLT ahead
2026-05-18	358.33	84.63	+1.24	ESLT ahead
2026-05-15	353.33	82.24	+1.29	ESLT ahead
2026-05-14	367.19	84.37	+1.34	ESLT ahead
2026-05-13	367.18	85.99	+1.29	ESLT ahead
2026-05-12	377.92	85.26	+1.42	ESLT ahead
2026-05-11	374.50	85.79	+1.38	ESLT ahead
2026-05-08	368.50	86.97	+1.31	ESLT ahead
2026-05-07	374.50	88.89	+1.30	ESLT ahead
2026-05-06	391.05	88.28	+1.46	ESLT ahead
2026-05-05	401.03	85.27	+1.66	ESLT ahead
2026-05-04	404.10	82.29	+1.81	ESLT ahead
2026-05-01	391.59	82.63	+1.72	ESLT ahead
2026-04-30	395.41	83.02	+1.75	ESLT ahead
2026-04-29	386.06	81.79	+1.74	ESLT ahead
2026-04-28	392.92	82.60	+1.78	ESLT ahead
2026-04-27	386.14	82.91	+1.73	ESLT ahead
2026-04-24	387.22	82.18	+1.79	ESLT ahead
2026-04-23	401.54	83.44	+1.87	ESLT ahead
2026-04-22	405.60	85.01	+1.87	ESLT ahead
2026-04-21	407.73	86.29	+1.86	ESLT ahead
2026-04-20	415.50	91.23	+1.76	ESLT ahead
2026-04-17	411.07	90.60	+1.76	ESLT ahead
2026-04-16	409.76	87.91	+1.87	ESLT ahead
2026-04-15	423.52	91.23	+1.88	ESLT ahead
2026-04-14	433.78	92.80	+1.92	ESLT ahead
2026-04-13	440.50	88.26	+2.16	ESLT ahead
2026-04-10	435.88	86.40	+2.23	ESLT ahead
2026-04-09	437.40	87.72	+2.22	ESLT ahead
2026-04-08	433.66	87.31	+2.24	ESLT ahead
2026-04-07	430.66	83.71	+2.39	ESLT ahead
2026-04-06	435.14	85.15	+2.41	ESLT ahead
2026-04-02	418.79	83.53	+2.38	ESLT ahead
2026-04-01	422.35	83.98	+2.42	ESLT ahead
2026-03-31	400.00	82.95	+2.31	ESLT ahead
2026-03-30	384.78	81.08	+2.28	ESLT ahead
2026-03-27	409.77	81.60	+2.52	ESLT ahead
2026-03-26	419.38	82.45	+2.61	ESLT ahead
2026-03-25	429.59	82.77	+2.73	ESLT ahead
2026-03-24	421.54	83.22	+2.69	ESLT ahead
2026-03-23	425.38	82.52	+2.81	ESLT ahead
2026-03-20	433.76	84.27	+2.86	ESLT ahead
2026-03-19	450.39	85.31	+3.03	ESLT ahead
2026-03-18	449.23	85.88	+3.05	ESLT ahead
2026-03-17	477.85	88.22	+3.27	ESLT ahead
2026-03-16	411.98	89.31	+2.67	ESLT ahead
2026-03-13	410.38	86.94	+2.81	ESLT ahead
2026-03-12	407.89	87.75	+2.80	ESLT ahead
2026-03-11	415.12	90.06	+2.81	ESLT ahead
2026-03-10	413.21	90.78	+2.81	ESLT ahead
2026-03-09	425.20	91.47	+2.96	ESLT ahead
2026-03-06	441.01	92.65	+3.12	ESLT ahead
2026-03-05	418.38	92.69	+2.95	ESLT ahead
2026-03-04	416.92	94.13	+2.91	ESLT ahead
2026-03-03	387.75	94.93	+2.58	ESLT ahead
2026-03-02	390.71	94.21	+2.69	ESLT ahead
2026-02-27	362.29	93.25	+2.42	ESLT ahead
2026-02-26	360.53	94.07	+2.38	ESLT ahead
2026-02-25	355.92	92.70	+2.42	ESLT ahead
2026-02-24	358.75	92.61	+2.49	ESLT ahead
2026-02-23	351.24	92.77	+2.41	ESLT ahead
2026-02-20	341.42	95.84	+2.15	ESLT ahead
2026-02-19	344.05	95.20	+2.24	ESLT ahead
2026-02-18	334.08	94.14	+2.17	ESLT ahead
2026-02-17	326.99	93.20	+2.14	ESLT ahead
2026-02-13	318.66	92.09	+2.09	ESLT ahead
2026-02-12	319.06	92.76	+2.08	ESLT ahead
2026-02-11	313.24	94.92	+1.90	ESLT ahead
2026-02-10	319.96	93.90	+2.08	ESLT ahead
2026-02-09	316.02	93.05	+2.08	ESLT ahead
2026-02-06	313.28	92.01	+2.12	ESLT ahead
2026-02-05	317.61	90.42	+2.29	ESLT ahead
2026-02-04	320.34	90.53	+2.35	ESLT ahead
2026-02-03	339.20	93.18	+2.52	ESLT ahead
2026-02-02	328.62	102.75	+1.91	ESLT ahead
2026-01-30	330.98	102.17	+1.99	ESLT ahead
2026-01-29	340.03	101.78	+2.16	ESLT ahead
2026-01-28	344.29	101.07	+2.28	ESLT ahead
2026-01-27	343.85	102.15	+2.25	ESLT ahead
2026-01-26	334.10	102.78	+2.10	ESLT ahead
2026-01-23	338.71	101.58	+2.25	ESLT ahead
2026-01-22	333.94	101.67	+2.20	ESLT ahead
2026-01-21	335.95	103.78	+2.15	ESLT ahead
2026-01-20	335.00	103.68	+2.16	ESLT ahead
2026-01-16	344.30	103.78	+2.32	ESLT ahead
2026-01-15	339.39	102.60	+2.33	ESLT ahead
2026-01-14	339.47	101.91	+2.40	ESLT ahead
2026-01-13	329.53	98.91	+2.43	ESLT ahead
2026-01-12	337.80	99.21	+2.57	ESLT ahead
2026-01-09	321.93	99.64	+2.33	ESLT ahead
2026-01-08	317.82	98.59	+2.34	ESLT ahead
2026-01-07	309.94	99.15	+2.20	ESLT ahead
2026-01-06	301.54	99.09	+2.08	ESLT ahead
2026-01-05	295.95	97.91	+2.06	ESLT ahead
2026-01-02	278.87	97.24	+1.80	ESLT ahead
2025-12-31	272.16	95.18	+1.80	ESLT ahead
2025-12-30	272.77	94.22	+1.87	ESLT ahead
2025-12-29	272.26	94.19	+1.88	ESLT ahead
2025-12-26	269.04	93.71	+1.86	ESLT ahead
2025-12-24	274.25	94.02	+1.95	ESLT ahead
2025-12-23	273.28	94.09	+1.95	ESLT ahead
2025-12-22	269.93	93.17	+1.95	ESLT ahead
2025-12-19	261.11	91.39	+1.89	ESLT ahead
2025-12-18	254.94	90.38	+1.84	ESLT ahead
2025-12-17	253.91	90.30	+1.84	ESLT ahead
2025-12-16	246.42	90.94	+1.67	ESLT ahead
2025-12-15	241.80	92.48	+1.49	ESLT ahead
2025-12-12	242.73	92.66	+1.51	ESLT ahead
2025-12-11	240.53	94.30	+1.39	ESLT ahead
2025-12-10	235.89	93.25	+1.35	ESLT ahead
2025-12-09	236.02	94.34	+1.30	ESLT ahead
2025-12-08	228.60	96.42	+1.04	ESLT ahead
2025-12-05	228.29	96.40	+1.04	ESLT ahead
2025-12-04	226.18	97.35	+0.96	ESLT ahead
2025-12-03	226.28	95.72	+1.05	ESLT ahead
2025-12-02	219.37	96.17	+0.88	ESLT ahead
2025-12-01	214.33	96.97	+0.74	ESLT ahead
2025-11-28	221.32	97.35	+0.88	ESLT ahead
2025-11-26	221.26	96.98	+0.90	ESLT ahead
2025-11-25	219.61	96.81	+0.88	ESLT ahead
2025-11-24	222.83	95.61	+1.01	ESLT ahead
2025-11-21	223.16	96.43	+0.99	ESLT ahead
2025-11-20	220.67	95.04	+1.01	ESLT ahead
2025-11-19	226.75	95.99	+1.10	ESLT ahead
2025-11-18	237.46	96.70	+1.28	ESLT ahead
2025-11-17	237.07	95.61	+1.33	ESLT ahead
2025-11-14	222.84	95.95	+1.04	ESLT ahead
2025-11-13	222.17	94.84	+1.08	ESLT ahead
2025-11-12	227.60	93.62	+1.26	ESLT ahead
2025-11-11	228.50	92.62	+1.33	ESLT ahead
2025-11-10	229.07	92.25	+1.36	ESLT ahead
2025-11-07	220.74	91.96	+1.22	ESLT ahead
2025-11-06	218.34	91.01	+1.22	ESLT ahead
2025-11-05	219.10	90.63	+1.26	ESLT ahead
2025-11-04	222.86	92.47	+1.26	ESLT ahead
2025-11-03	226.59	93.05	+1.31	ESLT ahead
2025-10-31	224.60	93.65	+1.25	ESLT ahead
2025-10-30	222.52	93.49	+1.23	ESLT ahead
2025-10-29	225.17	94.19	+1.25	ESLT ahead
2025-10-28	223.58	95.56	+1.16	ESLT ahead
2025-10-27	229.43	96.94	+1.21	ESLT ahead
2025-10-24	231.64	97.29	+1.24	ESLT ahead
2025-10-23	229.97	96.62	+1.25	ESLT ahead
2025-10-22	225.18	94.06	+1.28	ESLT ahead
2025-10-21	228.37	95.13	+1.29	ESLT ahead
2025-10-20	231.14	93.17	+1.43	ESLT ahead
2025-10-17	226.13	90.60	+1.46	ESLT ahead
2025-10-16	231.62	89.43	+1.62	ESLT ahead
2025-10-15	236.52	88.59	+1.75	ESLT ahead
2025-10-14	243.22	93.94	+1.63	ESLT ahead
2025-10-13	244.02	92.55	+1.71	ESLT ahead
2025-10-10	236.66	91.47	+1.65	ESLT ahead
2025-10-09	237.86	91.29	+1.69	ESLT ahead
2025-10-08	246.38	92.03	+1.80	ESLT ahead
2025-10-07	245.21	91.93	+1.80	ESLT ahead
2025-10-06	247.93	92.45	+1.83	ESLT ahead
2025-10-03	242.61	92.25	+1.76	ESLT ahead
2025-10-02	239.33	91.89	+1.73	ESLT ahead
2025-10-01	237.94	93.10	+1.67	ESLT ahead
2025-09-30	240.17	94.34	+1.66	ESLT ahead
2025-09-29	234.54	92.28	+1.66	ESLT ahead
2025-09-26	232.52	92.74	+1.62	ESLT ahead
2025-09-25	231.47	92.33	+1.62	ESLT ahead
2025-09-24	231.07	93.05	+1.60	ESLT ahead
2025-09-23	235.09	93.00	+1.67	ESLT ahead
2025-09-22	235.06	92.71	+1.69	ESLT ahead
2025-09-19	229.88	91.79	+1.66	ESLT ahead
2025-09-18	231.13	92.05	+1.68	ESLT ahead
2025-09-17	226.09	91.33	+1.64	ESLT ahead
2025-09-16	239.29	91.74	+1.84	ESLT ahead
2025-09-15	237.16	92.20	+1.81	ESLT ahead
2025-09-12	240.04	91.00	+1.92	ESLT ahead
2025-09-11	238.12	92.57	+1.84	ESLT ahead
2025-09-10	237.59	92.14	+1.87	ESLT ahead
2025-09-09	230.48	93.91	+1.70	ESLT ahead
2025-09-08	231.45	92.56	+1.78	ESLT ahead
2025-09-05	227.09	90.97	+1.79	ESLT ahead
2025-09-04	225.91	91.74	+1.75	ESLT ahead
2025-09-03	225.85	91.51	+1.78	ESLT ahead
2025-09-02	224.10	93.40	+1.69	ESLT ahead
2025-08-29	226.23	100.12	+1.47	ESLT ahead
2025-08-28	228.52	100.06	+1.53	ESLT ahead
2025-08-27	229.16	99.85	+1.56	ESLT ahead
2025-08-26	230.93	101.16	+1.55	ESLT ahead
2025-08-25	216.10	99.49	+1.37	ESLT ahead
2025-08-22	212.39	100.81	+1.27	ESLT ahead
2025-08-21	216.38	99.71	+1.39	ESLT ahead
2025-08-20	215.30	100.36	+1.36	ESLT ahead
2025-08-19	212.78	100.04	+1.34	ESLT ahead
2025-08-18	222.99	99.50	+1.54	ESLT ahead
2025-08-15	218.59	99.34	+1.49	ESLT ahead
2025-08-14	216.59	101.11	+1.40	ESLT ahead
2025-08-13	217.49	102.05	+1.39	ESLT ahead
2025-08-12	205.95	100.97	+1.24	ESLT ahead
2025-08-11	209.22	100.89	+1.31	ESLT ahead
2025-08-08	211.73	99.47	+1.42	ESLT ahead
2025-08-07	221.61	102.29	+1.50	ESLT ahead
2025-08-06	228.12	100.29	+1.69	ESLT ahead
2025-08-05	228.01	101.42	+1.66	ESLT ahead
2025-08-04	230.84	115.16	+1.24	ESLT ahead
2025-08-01	219.07	113.44	+1.11	ESLT ahead
2025-07-31	219.87	115.12	+1.08	ESLT ahead
2025-07-30	217.48	116.01	+1.02	ESLT ahead
2025-07-29	213.80	115.00	+1.00	ESLT ahead
2025-07-28	213.01	114.98	+0.99	ESLT ahead
2025-07-25	213.32	115.05	+1.00	ESLT ahead
2025-07-24	212.13	114.46	+1.01	ESLT ahead
2025-07-23	210.10	114.36	+0.98	ESLT ahead
2025-07-22	205.87	112.45	+0.98	ESLT ahead
2025-07-21	207.13	113.35	+0.98	ESLT ahead
2025-07-18	203.97	114.32	+0.90	ESLT ahead
2025-07-17	202.57	114.18	+0.89	ESLT ahead
2025-07-16	207.75	112.70	+1.03	ESLT ahead
2025-07-15	210.58	112.77	+1.09	ESLT ahead
2025-07-14	213.92	112.72	+1.16	ESLT ahead
2025-07-11	210.78	110.44	+1.19	ESLT ahead
2025-07-10	211.18	110.19	+1.21	ESLT ahead
2025-07-09	214.68	109.25	+1.31	ESLT ahead
2025-07-08	208.09	109.52	+1.20	ESLT ahead
2025-07-07	210.30	109.09	+1.26	ESLT ahead
2025-07-03	209.32	109.01	+1.26	ESLT ahead
2025-07-02	205.20	108.19	+1.22	ESLT ahead
2025-07-01	204.46	108.28	+1.21	ESLT ahead
2025-06-30	211.76	108.84	+1.33	ESLT ahead
2025-06-27	204.60	107.30	+1.27	ESLT ahead
2025-06-26	203.39	105.35	+1.32	ESLT ahead
2025-06-25	203.33	104.30	+1.37	ESLT ahead
2025-06-24	199.06	105.42	+1.26	ESLT ahead
2025-06-23	207.08	105.26	+1.42	ESLT ahead
2025-06-20	206.56	103.24	+1.50	ESLT ahead
2025-06-18	206.47	101.24	+1.58	ESLT ahead
2025-06-17	213.84	102.02	+1.69	ESLT ahead
2025-06-16	210.68	102.16	+1.65	ESLT ahead
2025-06-13	214.30	103.04	+1.70	ESLT ahead
2025-06-12	203.27	102.77	+1.53	ESLT ahead
2025-06-11	202.44	102.32	+1.54	ESLT ahead
2025-06-10	195.82	102.57	+1.42	ESLT ahead
2025-06-09	195.52	104.50	+1.36	ESLT ahead
2025-06-06	197.96	104.92	+1.40	ESLT ahead
2025-06-05	197.81	103.39	+1.47	ESLT ahead
2025-06-04	202.45	103.69	+1.56	ESLT ahead
2025-06-03	198.72	104.21	+1.48	ESLT ahead
2025-06-02	196.04	104.05	+1.45	ESLT ahead
2025-05-30	192.96	105.10	+1.37	ESLT ahead
2025-05-29	189.89	104.55	+1.34	ESLT ahead
2025-05-28	185.95	104.53	+1.27	ESLT ahead
2025-05-27	181.57	104.05	+1.21	ESLT ahead
2025-05-23	178.51	102.46	+1.22	ESLT ahead
2025-05-22	177.38	100.57	+1.27	ESLT ahead
2025-05-21	186.52	100.77	+1.46	ESLT ahead
2025-05-20	191.66	102.32	+1.52	ESLT ahead
2025-05-19	190.98	103.07	+1.50	ESLT ahead
2025-05-16	186.15	101.86	+1.46	ESLT ahead
2025-05-15	183.68	100.61	+1.47	ESLT ahead
2025-05-14	178.06	99.57	+1.40	ESLT ahead
2025-05-13	179.73	101.34	+1.38	ESLT ahead
2025-05-12	179.26	101.43	+1.38	ESLT ahead
2025-05-09	197.33	98.31	+1.89	ESLT ahead
2025-05-08	197.38	99.13	+1.88	ESLT ahead
2025-05-07	195.26	98.97	+1.86	ESLT ahead
2025-05-06	188.44	99.62	+1.72	ESLT ahead
2025-05-05	190.45	105.40	+1.55	ESLT ahead
2025-05-02	191.59	103.80	+1.65	ESLT ahead
2025-05-01	190.41	102.65	+1.69	ESLT ahead
2025-04-30	187.26	101.14	+1.70	ESLT ahead
2025-04-29	182.93	100.77	+1.64	ESLT ahead
2025-04-28	181.84	99.90	+1.67	ESLT ahead
2025-04-25	178.80	98.64	+1.67	ESLT ahead
2025-04-24	178.21	97.91	+1.70	ESLT ahead
2025-04-23	177.13	96.77	+1.74	ESLT ahead
2025-04-22	177.47	93.61	+1.91	ESLT ahead
2025-04-21	181.37	93.51	+2.02	ESLT ahead
2025-04-17	191.37	95.74	+2.18	ESLT ahead
2025-04-16	190.82	95.64	+2.20	ESLT ahead
2025-04-15	190.55	97.41	+2.15	ESLT ahead
2025-04-14	192.34	95.70	+2.29	ESLT ahead
2025-04-11	191.36	93.98	+2.39	ESLT ahead
2025-04-10	186.68	92.92	+2.36	ESLT ahead
2025-04-09	183.55	94.27	+2.26	ESLT ahead
2025-04-08	175.23	88.16	+2.39	ESLT ahead
2025-04-07	171.82	89.43	+2.27	ESLT ahead
2025-04-04	174.38	88.60	+2.41	ESLT ahead
2025-04-03	183.80	97.59	+2.25	ESLT ahead
2025-04-02	182.89	100.17	+2.13	ESLT ahead
2025-04-01	182.48	100.02	+2.15	ESLT ahead
2025-03-31	180.75	99.01	+2.19	ESLT ahead
2025-03-28	182.72	98.57	+2.29	ESLT ahead
2025-03-27	184.89	99.08	+2.36	ESLT ahead
2025-03-26	185.29	99.78	+2.37	ESLT ahead
2025-03-25	190.80	99.78	+2.56	ESLT ahead
2025-03-24	186.32	98.80	+2.53	ESLT ahead
2025-03-21	193.54	96.35	+2.91	ESLT ahead
2025-03-20	194.56	97.39	+2.94	ESLT ahead
2025-03-19	193.43	98.15	+2.93	ESLT ahead
2025-03-18	192.46	96.08	+3.09	ESLT ahead
2025-03-17	173.96	97.26	+2.52	ESLT ahead
2025-03-14	173.24	96.37	+2.59	ESLT ahead
2025-03-13	169.87	95.21	+2.59	ESLT ahead
2025-03-12	166.88	94.86	+2.55	ESLT ahead
2025-03-11	166.19	94.47	+2.59	ESLT ahead
2025-03-10	163.87	95.63	+2.48	ESLT ahead
2025-03-07	168.20	96.02	+2.65	ESLT ahead
2025-03-06	166.66	96.24	+2.62	ESLT ahead
2025-03-05	165.85	98.42	+2.50	ESLT ahead
2025-03-04	160.17	96.61	+2.43	ESLT ahead
2025-03-03	157.63	98.11	+2.27	ESLT ahead
2025-02-28	146.51	97.86	+1.85	ESLT ahead
2025-02-27	144.03	96.59	+1.84	ESLT ahead
2025-02-26	142.80	95.39	+1.88	ESLT ahead
2025-02-25	140.92	95.46	+1.81	ESLT ahead
2025-02-24	140.18	93.98	+1.90	ESLT ahead
2025-02-21	139.45	92.34	+2.00	ESLT ahead
2025-02-20	141.47	93.94	+2.00	ESLT ahead
2025-02-19	141.75	96.08	+1.89	ESLT ahead
2025-02-18	140.17	93.01	+2.05	ESLT ahead
2025-02-14	139.91	94.06	+1.98	ESLT ahead
2025-02-13	139.61	95.62	+1.87	ESLT ahead
2025-02-12	140.21	96.87	+1.83	ESLT ahead
2025-02-11	142.36	97.44	+1.91	ESLT ahead
2025-02-10	143.03	95.57	+2.10	ESLT ahead
2025-02-07	143.92	95.00	+2.20	ESLT ahead
2025-02-06	144.01	93.00	+2.39	ESLT ahead
2025-02-05	146.92	92.44	+2.60	ESLT ahead
2025-02-04	144.70	93.59	+2.44	ESLT ahead
2025-02-03	142.84	96.82	+2.13	ESLT ahead
2025-01-31	143.94	96.86	+2.21	ESLT ahead
2025-01-30	143.36	97.69	+2.13	ESLT ahead
2025-01-29	143.03	95.83	+2.28	ESLT ahead
2025-01-28	139.49	95.16	+2.17	ESLT ahead
2025-01-27	138.70	96.21	+2.07	ESLT ahead
2025-01-24	141.83	96.04	+2.27	ESLT ahead
2025-01-23	141.48	96.62	+2.22	ESLT ahead
2025-01-22	143.24	96.91	+2.31	ESLT ahead
2025-01-21	144.96	97.20	+2.40	ESLT ahead
2025-01-17	140.30	95.91	+2.27	ESLT ahead
2025-01-16	138.46	94.62	+2.29	ESLT ahead
2025-01-15	138.76	92.58	+2.50	ESLT ahead
2025-01-14	137.57	93.10	+2.41	ESLT ahead
2025-01-13	135.69	91.50	+2.45	ESLT ahead
2025-01-10	132.25	90.33	+2.37	ESLT ahead
2025-01-08	129.11	91.78	+2.06	ESLT ahead
2025-01-07	125.21	89.62	+2.01	ESLT ahead
2025-01-06	123.18	89.56	+1.88	ESLT ahead
2025-01-03	124.22	91.30	+1.79	ESLT ahead
2025-01-02	123.61	89.76	+1.88	ESLT ahead
2024-12-31	121.58	90.70	+1.66	ESLT ahead
2024-12-30	121.83	91.61	+1.60	ESLT ahead
2024-12-27	121.23	92.39	+1.48	ESLT ahead
2024-12-26	121.76	93.13	+1.45	ESLT ahead
2024-12-24	123.56	93.16	+1.55	ESLT ahead
2024-12-23	123.51	92.37	+1.61	ESLT ahead
2024-12-20	121.44	91.34	+1.55	ESLT ahead
2024-12-19	122.16	90.19	+1.69	ESLT ahead
2024-12-18	121.73	88.68	+1.79	ESLT ahead
2024-12-17	121.99	91.20	+1.59	ESLT ahead
2024-12-16	124.13	91.62	+1.68	ESLT ahead
2024-12-13	118.45	90.12	+1.45	ESLT ahead
2024-12-12	120.00	88.79	+1.66	ESLT ahead
2024-12-11	118.43	89.23	+1.52	ESLT ahead
2024-12-10	116.75	90.30	+1.31	ESLT ahead
2024-12-09	114.72	90.07	+1.19	ESLT ahead
2024-12-06	118.53	91.56	+1.30	ESLT ahead
2024-12-05	118.01	92.53	+1.18	ESLT ahead
2024-12-04	116.61	93.60	+1.00	ESLT ahead
2024-12-03	117.77	90.09	+1.35	ESLT ahead
2024-12-02	115.36	90.22	+1.18	ESLT ahead
2024-11-29	115.03	89.68	+1.19	ESLT ahead
2024-11-27	115.21	89.42	+1.22	ESLT ahead
2024-11-26	119.19	90.37	+1.38	ESLT ahead
2024-11-25	119.24	90.25	+1.38	ESLT ahead
2024-11-22	117.83	90.21	+1.30	ESLT ahead
2024-11-21	117.45	88.76	+1.39	ESLT ahead
2024-11-20	117.15	92.55	+1.06	ESLT ahead
2024-11-19	117.59	89.51	+1.32	ESLT ahead
2024-11-18	110.77	89.64	+0.88	ESLT ahead
2024-11-15	111.59	89.76	+0.92	ESLT ahead
2024-11-14	111.75	91.02	+0.83	ESLT ahead
2024-11-13	112.30	97.56	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-11-12	113.68	97.01	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-11-11	110.84	98.40	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2024-11-08	108.34	96.69	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2024-11-07	108.41	95.15	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2024-11-06	109.69	98.96	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2024-11-05	111.29	95.74	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-11-04	107.67	94.15	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2024-11-01	107.74	93.37	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-10-31	107.46	93.21	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2024-10-30	107.52	95.17	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2024-10-29	107.18	95.63	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2024-10-28	106.93	95.84	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2024-10-25	99.09	96.97	-0.52	TDG ahead
2024-10-24	98.20	96.31	-0.54	TDG ahead
2024-10-23	97.93	97.17	-0.62	TDG ahead
2024-10-22	99.18	96.65	-0.51	TDG ahead
2024-10-21	100.60	99.26	-0.60	TDG ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	-0.69	TDG ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 28, 2024 (ESLT +7.9%, TDG -1.2%); Mar 18, 2025 (ESLT +10.6%, TDG -1.2%); May 12, 2025 (ESLT -9.2%, TDG +3.2%); Aug 5, 2025 (ESLT -1.2%, TDG -11.9%); Feb 3, 2026 (ESLT +3.2%, TDG -9.3%); Mar 17, 2026 (ESLT +16.0%, TDG -1.2%).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

ESLT and TDG at a glance

ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd.

Listing: Nasdaq · SEC CIK 1027664
Industry: Military/Government/Technical · SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC
Market value: $35.3B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

TDG Transdigm Group Incorporated

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1260221
Industry: Military/Government/Technical · SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC
Market value: $63.2B
Price history: 2,520 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
LMT / TDG	Watchlist	LMT by 1.32 sd	Military/Government/Technical
ESLT / ARXS	Short history	neither	SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC
TDG / ARXS	Short history	neither	SIC 3728 Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.