Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. vs Marriott International
Measured twinHLT / MARPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($102B vs $78B) in Nasdaq's "Hotels/Resorts" industry; SEC SIC 7011 / 7011 (same major group); #1 and #2 by market value ($102B vs $78B) with SEC SIC 7011 (Hotels & Motels).
The price gap between these two has a measured habit of closing. A 2 standard deviation gap becomes a paired paper idea.
- no divergence: z = -0.34 (needs |z| >= 2.0)
Business leadership
MAR is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | HLT | MAR | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $12.0B | $26.2B | MAR |
| 2024 | $11.2B | $25.1B | MAR |
| 2023 | $10.2B | $23.7B | MAR |
| 2022 | $8.8B | $20.8B | MAR |
| 2021 | $5.8B | $13.9B | MAR |
| 2020 | $4.3B | $10.6B | MAR |
MAR led in every year with figures for both. Market value: HLT $77.9B, MAR $101.9B.
Stock leadership
MAR is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
MAR leads HLT by 0.34 standard deviations: +1.0% over its usual price ratio. 1 lead switch in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| HLT | +10.2% | +7.1% | +34.6% |
| MAR | +6.0% | +7.8% | +47.8% |
Relationship
The gap has closed before
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Pass
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.82 (needs >= 0.60)
- Pass
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -3.74 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Pass
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 10.05 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. MAR Marriott InternationalPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: HLT relative to MAR, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: HLT ahead; below 0: MAR ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | HLT index | MAR index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 149.94 | 149.40 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-21 | 151.69 | 152.11 | -0.55 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 150.45 | 149.59 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-19 | 144.90 | 147.10 | -0.95 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-16 | 144.52 | 146.10 | -0.82 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 143.62 | 145.22 | -0.83 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 137.35 | 139.99 | -1.07 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 138.01 | 139.87 | -0.91 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 137.16 | 139.04 | -0.92 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 136.74 | 137.76 | -0.74 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 135.38 | 135.95 | -0.65 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 134.22 | 134.22 | -0.54 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 135.09 | 136.02 | -0.74 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 132.37 | 133.99 | -0.90 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 133.73 | 135.15 | -0.86 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 132.09 | 133.58 | -0.89 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-30 | 133.21 | 133.91 | -0.72 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-29 | 135.44 | 136.15 | -0.73 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-28 | 134.11 | 135.00 | -0.77 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-25 | 131.47 | 132.54 | -0.82 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 130.70 | 132.35 | -0.94 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-23 | 128.65 | 132.40 | -1.39 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-22 | 129.16 | 131.05 | -1.01 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 128.59 | 129.01 | -0.71 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-18 | 128.02 | 127.61 | -0.54 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-09-17 | 126.69 | 125.75 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-16 | 127.98 | 126.12 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-15 | 128.88 | 126.97 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-14 | 130.06 | 128.19 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-11 | 128.21 | 126.01 | -0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-10 | 128.24 | 123.90 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-09 | 128.55 | 124.82 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-08 | 127.49 | 123.79 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-04 | 130.30 | 126.70 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-03 | 131.63 | 126.53 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-02 | 130.44 | 125.43 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-01 | 130.64 | 125.96 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-31 | 132.44 | 128.67 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-28 | 134.77 | 132.18 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-27 | 136.38 | 133.23 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-26 | 139.26 | 135.04 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-25 | 137.90 | 134.70 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-24 | 138.21 | 135.62 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-21 | 136.77 | 134.18 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-20 | 138.02 | 134.26 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-19 | 140.17 | 135.52 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-18 | 137.24 | 134.54 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-17 | 136.56 | 134.25 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-14 | 137.02 | 134.31 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-13 | 134.34 | 132.73 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-12 | 135.06 | 133.50 | -0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-11 | 131.76 | 131.59 | -0.68 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-08-10 | 130.23 | 131.19 | -0.86 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 132.99 | 133.25 | -0.76 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-08-06 | 134.83 | 135.42 | -0.81 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 135.91 | 136.04 | -0.75 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 130.68 | 129.97 | -0.63 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 131.63 | 130.58 | -0.59 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 134.20 | 140.37 | -1.63 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 134.84 | 141.37 | -1.69 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 134.72 | 143.49 | -2.02 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 135.02 | 144.40 | -2.13 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-27 | 138.54 | 144.22 | -1.61 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-24 | 136.08 | 140.98 | -1.53 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-23 | 134.07 | 137.23 | -1.30 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 135.77 | 139.23 | -1.35 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-21 | 135.65 | 138.48 | -1.27 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | 135.43 | 138.15 | -1.26 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-17 | 134.55 | 137.89 | -1.37 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 135.34 | 139.74 | -1.53 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-15 | 137.55 | 138.95 | -1.10 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 136.45 | 136.74 | -0.95 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 135.02 | 136.62 | -1.15 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 140.48 | 141.61 | -1.08 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-09 | 141.39 | 140.24 | -0.77 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-08 | 139.50 | 139.74 | -0.97 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 142.84 | 143.35 | -1.02 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-06 | 142.13 | 142.98 | -1.07 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-02 | 141.59 | 140.42 | -0.79 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-07-01 | 139.07 | 138.67 | -0.91 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-30 | 138.38 | 139.53 | -1.14 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-29 | 139.25 | 141.14 | -1.26 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-26 | 139.38 | 142.06 | -1.38 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-25 | 142.60 | 142.66 | -1.01 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-24 | 143.80 | 144.41 | -1.09 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-23 | 143.98 | 145.64 | -1.25 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-22 | 143.60 | 144.65 | -1.17 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-18 | 146.07 | 149.17 | -1.47 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-17 | 146.27 | 148.57 | -1.37 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 146.65 | 150.26 | -1.56 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-15 | 145.35 | 150.84 | -1.85 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-12 | 144.86 | 151.56 | -2.04 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 143.15 | 149.43 | -2.02 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-10 | 141.63 | 145.42 | -1.68 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 143.45 | 148.20 | -1.83 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 142.64 | 147.37 | -1.86 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 143.67 | 147.78 | -1.78 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-04 | 141.60 | 145.07 | -1.71 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 138.76 | 141.85 | -1.68 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 139.38 | 140.72 | -1.42 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 139.29 | 141.93 | -1.63 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 137.21 | 141.42 | -1.91 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 141.35 | 145.24 | -1.86 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-27 | 141.00 | 145.28 | -1.94 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-26 | 135.59 | 140.74 | -2.13 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-22 | 134.45 | 138.99 | -2.07 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-21 | 135.15 | 139.52 | -2.06 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-20 | 135.62 | 139.21 | -1.95 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-19 | 132.07 | 135.05 | -1.88 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-18 | 133.22 | 135.23 | -1.72 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-15 | 132.39 | 132.97 | -1.48 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-14 | 132.54 | 133.08 | -1.48 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-13 | 130.40 | 131.85 | -1.66 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-12 | 131.31 | 131.86 | -1.50 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-11 | 132.13 | 133.03 | -1.58 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-08 | 132.65 | 132.97 | -1.48 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-07 | 134.12 | 132.55 | -1.14 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-06 | 134.63 | 135.19 | -1.55 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 130.97 | 133.48 | -1.93 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 130.39 | 130.74 | -1.54 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 133.42 | 133.65 | -1.53 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 135.70 | 136.18 | -1.59 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 131.69 | 133.26 | -1.81 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 135.40 | 134.91 | -1.43 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 139.21 | 135.79 | -0.90 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 140.54 | 138.23 | -1.11 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 139.98 | 138.64 | -1.30 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 139.72 | 138.23 | -1.28 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 142.46 | 141.36 | -1.36 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-20 | 143.58 | 142.59 | -1.40 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-17 | 142.80 | 142.29 | -1.49 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-16 | 138.34 | 136.45 | -1.24 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-15 | 137.73 | 136.95 | -1.46 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-14 | 138.76 | 138.06 | -1.48 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-13 | 137.04 | 135.38 | -1.30 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 135.43 | 133.32 | -1.22 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 135.05 | 132.88 | -1.22 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-08 | 132.83 | 131.24 | -1.34 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 126.53 | 124.60 | -1.26 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 128.50 | 127.26 | -1.42 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 127.70 | 124.97 | -1.11 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 129.08 | 125.55 | -0.95 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 127.33 | 123.14 | -0.80 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 123.89 | 120.22 | -0.90 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 123.13 | 119.56 | -0.92 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 126.33 | 122.64 | -0.92 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 126.95 | 123.04 | -0.88 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 125.59 | 122.10 | -0.97 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 125.90 | 122.94 | -1.09 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 122.52 | 120.39 | -1.27 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 124.71 | 122.32 | -1.22 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 123.34 | 121.43 | -1.33 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 126.17 | 123.22 | -1.12 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 123.95 | 121.17 | -1.15 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 122.08 | 118.15 | -0.88 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 123.22 | 119.09 | -0.84 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 124.30 | 122.88 | -1.46 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 124.94 | 122.74 | -1.30 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 127.07 | 123.82 | -1.08 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 125.05 | 121.91 | -1.10 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 128.70 | 125.39 | -1.09 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 127.68 | 126.48 | -1.56 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 128.11 | 126.47 | -1.48 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 127.63 | 124.42 | -1.13 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-27 | 130.56 | 128.66 | -1.43 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-26 | 133.09 | 131.99 | -1.62 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-25 | 131.21 | 130.81 | -1.78 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 130.97 | 129.20 | -1.49 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-23 | 130.56 | 129.00 | -1.54 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-20 | 132.31 | 131.00 | -1.61 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-19 | 130.95 | 131.74 | -2.08 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 132.27 | 134.04 | -2.32 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 133.08 | 135.52 | -2.50 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-13 | 131.74 | 133.24 | -2.33 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-12 | 134.91 | 133.69 | -1.74 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-11 | 136.15 | 135.07 | -1.75 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-10 | 135.55 | 135.30 | -1.92 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-09 | 131.50 | 124.70 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-06 | 131.64 | 125.47 | -0.54 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 129.27 | 122.91 | -0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-04 | 129.31 | 122.20 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-03 | 127.55 | 119.89 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-02 | 126.85 | 120.21 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-30 | 125.00 | 118.71 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-29 | 125.32 | 120.40 | -0.67 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 124.08 | 117.50 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-27 | 124.02 | 118.20 | -0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-26 | 124.42 | 119.24 | -0.56 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 124.83 | 120.37 | -0.71 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 123.91 | 121.11 | -1.05 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 124.14 | 120.69 | -0.90 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 121.43 | 118.16 | -0.92 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 125.98 | 122.70 | -0.93 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 126.40 | 122.66 | -0.83 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 125.68 | 120.36 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-13 | 125.88 | 121.60 | -0.69 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 125.79 | 121.74 | -0.73 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 125.77 | 123.56 | -1.10 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 124.92 | 122.33 | -1.01 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 122.90 | 120.20 | -0.98 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 122.81 | 121.18 | -1.19 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-05 | 119.66 | 117.10 | -0.98 | MAR ahead |
| 2026-01-02 | 122.68 | 118.00 | -0.55 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-31 | 120.28 | 116.81 | -0.77 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-30 | 121.62 | 118.20 | -0.78 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-29 | 122.42 | 118.38 | -0.65 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-26 | 122.89 | 118.82 | -0.64 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-24 | 122.82 | 118.66 | -0.61 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-23 | 122.01 | 118.25 | -0.68 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-22 | 122.50 | 118.13 | -0.55 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-19 | 122.38 | 116.78 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-18 | 120.46 | 115.52 | -0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-17 | 122.69 | 116.74 | -0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-16 | 119.69 | 115.20 | -0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-15 | 119.70 | 116.15 | -0.64 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-12 | 117.35 | 112.47 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-11 | 116.49 | 111.62 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-10 | 113.58 | 108.04 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-09 | 112.75 | 106.87 | -0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-08 | 112.99 | 108.37 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-05 | 114.00 | 110.16 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-04 | 114.51 | 111.45 | -0.64 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-03 | 117.35 | 115.46 | -0.86 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-02 | 117.74 | 114.70 | -0.64 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 118.52 | 114.25 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-28 | 119.35 | 114.76 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-26 | 119.66 | 114.70 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-25 | 119.23 | 114.50 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-24 | 114.87 | 111.53 | -0.54 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 114.94 | 111.39 | -0.50 | MAR ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 110.68 | 106.32 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-19 | 111.81 | 107.00 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-18 | 112.20 | 106.51 | -0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-17 | 111.41 | 106.51 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-14 | 112.92 | 107.58 | -0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-13 | 113.01 | 108.22 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-12 | 115.07 | 109.82 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-11 | 114.57 | 109.90 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-10 | 114.96 | 109.36 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-07 | 114.45 | 109.62 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-06 | 111.08 | 105.85 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-05 | 110.74 | 106.58 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-04 | 108.30 | 102.50 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-03 | 108.49 | 99.36 | +0.70 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-31 | 107.60 | 98.11 | +0.79 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 108.95 | 98.75 | +0.91 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 109.04 | 99.07 | +0.87 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 109.25 | 99.95 | +0.75 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 111.48 | 102.11 | +0.73 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 112.13 | 102.15 | +0.84 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-23 | 112.07 | 101.54 | +0.95 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-22 | 115.18 | 102.44 | +1.33 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-21 | 111.37 | 101.07 | +0.94 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-20 | 109.31 | 97.89 | +1.21 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-17 | 108.99 | 98.21 | +1.10 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-16 | 107.81 | 97.53 | +1.03 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-15 | 111.01 | 100.22 | +1.08 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-14 | 112.39 | 100.89 | +1.20 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-13 | 110.28 | 99.12 | +1.19 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 108.68 | 97.97 | +1.14 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-09 | 108.92 | 100.20 | +0.74 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 108.90 | 100.90 | +0.60 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 108.30 | 100.70 | +0.54 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 108.95 | 102.39 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-03 | 108.22 | 100.74 | +0.52 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 108.42 | 100.30 | +0.64 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 107.51 | 98.52 | +0.84 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 108.64 | 98.06 | +1.15 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 109.83 | 100.46 | +0.89 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 109.61 | 99.48 | +1.05 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 109.41 | 98.23 | +1.28 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 110.20 | 98.70 | +1.34 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 110.42 | 98.58 | +1.42 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 111.63 | 99.44 | +1.47 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 112.48 | 101.10 | +1.30 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 111.51 | 99.38 | +1.49 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 111.56 | 98.66 | +1.66 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 114.69 | 100.86 | +1.79 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 113.58 | 99.83 | +1.83 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 115.04 | 100.34 | +2.01 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 116.50 | 100.88 | +2.19 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 114.36 | 98.80 | +2.27 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 115.14 | 99.40 | +2.32 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 116.33 | 100.93 | +2.24 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 114.02 | 99.66 | +2.11 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 116.44 | 101.22 | +2.26 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 115.15 | 99.80 | +2.36 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 115.58 | 99.58 | +2.53 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 115.60 | 100.85 | +2.27 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 115.70 | 101.75 | +2.11 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 115.74 | 101.53 | +2.19 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 115.30 | 100.85 | +2.29 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 114.76 | 101.13 | +2.14 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 116.20 | 103.09 | +1.99 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 112.72 | 98.75 | +2.33 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 113.02 | 99.22 | +2.30 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 113.79 | 100.44 | +2.20 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 112.70 | 100.25 | +2.03 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 112.11 | 99.85 | +2.02 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 113.20 | 100.36 | +2.16 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-13 | 114.25 | 101.54 | +2.12 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-12 | 112.55 | 99.78 | +2.21 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-11 | 109.31 | 97.13 | +2.18 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-08 | 109.84 | 97.86 | +2.13 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-07 | 109.26 | 98.11 | +1.94 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-06 | 109.27 | 98.91 | +1.74 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 108.94 | 97.79 | +1.98 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-04 | 109.89 | 97.56 | +2.30 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-08-01 | 109.22 | 96.14 | +2.58 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-31 | 112.26 | 99.33 | +2.47 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-30 | 114.44 | 101.67 | +2.40 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 114.34 | 102.96 | +2.05 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 113.30 | 103.84 | +1.58 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 114.59 | 105.09 | +1.57 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 112.04 | 102.74 | +1.59 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 111.74 | 102.98 | +1.46 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-22 | 114.67 | 102.78 | +2.28 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 113.42 | 102.24 | +2.15 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-18 | 114.18 | 102.63 | +2.26 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-17 | 113.99 | 102.26 | +2.35 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-16 | 114.51 | 103.01 | +2.31 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-15 | 114.88 | 103.50 | +2.29 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-14 | 116.68 | 106.50 | +1.93 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-11 | 116.12 | 106.04 | +1.94 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-10 | 116.19 | 106.29 | +1.91 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-09 | 114.12 | 105.12 | +1.71 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-08 | 114.30 | 105.41 | +1.69 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-07 | 113.42 | 104.82 | +1.64 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-03 | 114.49 | 105.43 | +1.77 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-02 | 113.11 | 104.49 | +1.69 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-07-01 | 112.63 | 104.70 | +1.51 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-30 | 111.53 | 102.87 | +1.77 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-27 | 111.18 | 102.96 | +1.66 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-26 | 107.82 | 101.51 | +1.15 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-25 | 106.24 | 100.15 | +1.12 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-24 | 107.17 | 101.18 | +1.08 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-23 | 105.67 | 99.44 | +1.19 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-20 | 104.21 | 97.96 | +1.23 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-18 | 103.66 | 96.96 | +1.40 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-17 | 103.42 | 96.46 | +1.50 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-16 | 103.58 | 97.10 | +1.35 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-13 | 102.12 | 96.01 | +1.28 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-12 | 104.92 | 99.11 | +1.14 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-11 | 106.17 | 100.17 | +1.18 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-10 | 106.17 | 100.92 | +0.96 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-09 | 105.55 | 100.12 | +1.03 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-06 | 105.86 | 100.01 | +1.16 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-05 | 104.05 | 97.82 | +1.32 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-04 | 104.45 | 98.62 | +1.20 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-03 | 105.15 | 99.55 | +1.12 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-06-02 | 104.32 | 98.35 | +1.26 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-30 | 104.03 | 99.33 | +0.87 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-29 | 103.96 | 99.25 | +0.88 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-28 | 105.01 | 99.60 | +1.09 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-27 | 105.98 | 100.19 | +1.19 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-23 | 102.50 | 97.03 | +1.16 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-22 | 103.28 | 98.15 | +1.05 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-21 | 103.33 | 98.15 | +1.07 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-20 | 106.11 | 100.66 | +1.12 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-19 | 107.39 | 102.86 | +0.84 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-16 | 107.10 | 102.87 | +0.77 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-15 | 105.73 | 102.21 | +0.58 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-14 | 105.94 | 102.63 | +0.53 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-13 | 107.20 | 103.22 | +0.71 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-12 | 105.70 | 102.39 | +0.54 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-09 | 101.76 | 97.13 | +0.97 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-08 | 101.83 | 97.63 | +0.85 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-07 | 101.19 | 96.38 | +1.04 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-06 | 99.07 | 94.86 | +0.90 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-05 | 100.06 | 93.10 | +1.71 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-02 | 100.88 | 93.93 | +1.70 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-05-01 | 98.02 | 91.85 | +1.53 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-30 | 94.42 | 89.83 | +1.12 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-29 | 94.81 | 90.24 | +1.11 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-28 | 92.79 | 89.21 | +0.84 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-25 | 91.96 | 88.93 | +0.69 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-24 | 91.86 | 88.95 | +0.66 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-23 | 90.18 | 86.52 | +0.91 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-22 | 88.20 | 83.05 | +1.40 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-21 | 85.67 | 81.21 | +1.24 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-17 | 88.12 | 82.99 | +1.41 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-16 | 87.55 | 82.38 | +1.44 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-15 | 88.49 | 83.80 | +1.28 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-14 | 87.99 | 84.15 | +1.03 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-11 | 88.95 | 84.80 | +1.11 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-10 | 87.90 | 83.93 | +1.08 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-09 | 91.56 | 87.87 | +0.96 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-08 | 84.28 | 79.49 | +1.40 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-07 | 85.48 | 80.33 | +1.49 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-04 | 87.45 | 80.79 | +1.93 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-03 | 91.03 | 84.57 | +1.81 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-02 | 96.89 | 91.33 | +1.47 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-04-01 | 95.17 | 89.70 | +1.48 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-31 | 95.28 | 89.68 | +1.53 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-28 | 94.51 | 89.24 | +1.46 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-27 | 97.17 | 92.04 | +1.39 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-26 | 98.35 | 92.89 | +1.47 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-25 | 98.27 | 92.80 | +1.48 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-24 | 97.38 | 91.46 | +1.63 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-21 | 96.03 | 89.42 | +1.85 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-20 | 97.11 | 92.18 | +1.39 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-19 | 97.55 | 93.23 | +1.24 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-18 | 95.08 | 90.51 | +1.34 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-17 | 98.26 | 93.41 | +1.38 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-14 | 96.05 | 91.53 | +1.33 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 92.87 | 89.34 | +1.11 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-12 | 95.64 | 91.80 | +1.18 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-11 | 97.08 | 92.74 | +1.30 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-10 | 100.04 | 96.84 | +0.99 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-07 | 103.49 | 98.93 | +1.29 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-06 | 105.15 | 98.88 | +1.69 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-05 | 108.66 | 102.07 | +1.73 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-04 | 108.69 | 101.96 | +1.77 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-03-03 | 110.37 | 104.56 | +1.55 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-28 | 110.95 | 105.59 | +1.45 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-27 | 108.50 | 104.37 | +1.21 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-26 | 108.86 | 106.23 | +0.88 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-25 | 108.01 | 104.47 | +1.10 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-24 | 108.41 | 104.20 | +1.25 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-21 | 108.66 | 104.47 | +1.25 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-20 | 112.14 | 108.13 | +1.19 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-19 | 112.86 | 108.27 | +1.31 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-18 | 112.59 | 108.59 | +1.20 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-14 | 111.33 | 106.75 | +1.34 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-13 | 112.86 | 108.52 | +1.28 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-12 | 114.51 | 109.36 | +1.43 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-11 | 112.69 | 108.43 | +1.27 | HLT ahead |
| 2025-02-10 | 112.01 | 114.63 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-07 | 112.93 | 114.45 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-06 | 113.22 | 114.06 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-05 | 107.97 | 110.09 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-04 | 108.35 | 109.47 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-03 | 107.31 | 109.36 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-31 | 107.23 | 109.41 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-30 | 107.53 | 110.14 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-29 | 106.33 | 109.06 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-28 | 106.22 | 108.67 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-27 | 104.57 | 108.45 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-24 | 103.74 | 106.97 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-23 | 104.73 | 107.33 | +0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-22 | 103.85 | 105.58 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-21 | 103.64 | 104.56 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-17 | 103.27 | 104.36 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-16 | 103.28 | 103.92 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-15 | 102.14 | 103.93 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-14 | 102.58 | 104.08 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-13 | 101.11 | 102.52 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-10 | 100.79 | 101.94 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-08 | 101.88 | 102.99 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-07 | 101.08 | 101.57 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-06 | 101.98 | 102.64 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-03 | 103.23 | 103.64 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-02 | 102.64 | 103.33 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-31 | 103.50 | 105.02 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-30 | 103.93 | 105.54 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-27 | 104.66 | 106.80 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-26 | 105.42 | 107.89 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-24 | 106.05 | 107.83 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-23 | 104.98 | 106.79 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-20 | 104.44 | 106.91 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-19 | 102.91 | 105.05 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-18 | 101.56 | 104.54 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-17 | 104.80 | 108.98 | -0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-16 | 105.94 | 109.34 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-13 | 105.84 | 108.09 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-12 | 107.16 | 109.18 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-11 | 107.60 | 109.84 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-10 | 106.24 | 108.31 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-09 | 104.69 | 108.05 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-06 | 108.23 | 110.16 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-05 | 106.94 | 110.12 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-04 | 106.36 | 109.05 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-03 | 105.11 | 107.28 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-02 | 104.88 | 107.77 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-29 | 106.13 | 108.84 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-27 | 104.86 | 107.53 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-26 | 105.94 | 108.50 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-25 | 106.21 | 108.43 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-22 | 105.94 | 107.04 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-21 | 105.45 | 106.72 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-20 | 104.74 | 105.49 | +0.55 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-11-19 | 104.59 | 105.15 | +0.58 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-11-18 | 104.28 | 105.97 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-15 | 104.02 | 104.96 | +0.53 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-11-14 | 104.70 | 106.18 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-13 | 105.80 | 107.86 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-12 | 104.94 | 107.69 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-11 | 104.84 | 107.65 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-08 | 103.70 | 105.72 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-07 | 103.11 | 104.55 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-06 | 103.19 | 104.01 | +0.58 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-11-05 | 98.68 | 97.76 | +0.87 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-11-04 | 97.73 | 96.55 | +0.93 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-11-01 | 99.02 | 98.11 | +0.89 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-31 | 98.34 | 97.90 | +0.81 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-30 | 99.83 | 99.50 | +0.80 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-29 | 100.14 | 99.36 | +0.89 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-28 | 99.31 | 98.85 | +0.84 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-25 | 98.87 | 98.69 | +0.80 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-24 | 98.49 | 98.13 | +0.84 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-23 | 97.78 | 97.07 | +0.90 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-22 | 99.72 | 99.96 | +0.75 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-21 | 99.22 | 99.76 | +0.70 | HLT ahead |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | +0.80 | HLT ahead |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Feb 11, 2025 (HLT +0.6%, MAR -5.4%); Feb 10, 2026 (HLT +3.1%, MAR +8.5%); Aug 3, 2026 (HLT -1.9%, MAR -7.0%). Upcoming earnings: HLT Oct 27, 2026 (pre-market); MAR Nov 2, 2026 (pre-market).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
HLT and MAR at a glance
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 1585689
- Industry
- Hotels/Resorts · SIC 7011 Hotels & Motels
- Market value
- $77.9B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
MAR Marriott International
- Listing
- Nasdaq · SEC CIK 1048286
- Industry
- Hotels/Resorts · SIC 7011 Hotels & Motels
- Market value
- $101.9B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of HLT and MAR
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Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
