Computer Manufacturing

Dell Technologies Inc. vs International Business Machines Corporation

WatchlistDELL / IBMPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($290B vs $223B) in Nasdaq's "Computer Manufacturing" industry; SEC SIC 3571 / 3570 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.18 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.33 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 382.30 (needs <= 63)

Business leadership

DELL is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	DELL	IBM	Larger
2025	$113.5B	$67.5B	DELL
2024	$95.6B	$62.8B	DELL
2023	$88.4B	$61.9B	DELL
2022	$102.3B	$60.5B	DELL
2021	$101.2B	$57.4B	DELL
2020	$86.7B	$55.2B	DELL

DELL led in every year with figures for both. Market value: DELL $289.6B, IBM $222.7B.

Stock leadership

DELL is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

DELL leads IBM by 1.01 standard deviations: +95.9% over its usual price ratio. 2 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
DELL	+3.5%	+113.5%	+203.1%
IBM	+17.7%	+9.1%	-10.6%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 1970 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.18 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.34 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Fail: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 382.31 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

DELL Dell Technologies Inc. IBM International Business Machines CorporationPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: DELL relative to IBM, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: DELL ahead; below 0: IBM ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	DELL index	IBM index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	358.18	108.57	+1.01	DELL ahead
2026-10-21	384.22	108.29	+1.13	DELL ahead
2026-10-20	364.98	104.19	+1.12	DELL ahead
2026-10-19	360.15	101.80	+1.15	DELL ahead
2026-10-16	357.20	99.97	+1.17	DELL ahead
2026-10-15	374.34	100.83	+1.24	DELL ahead
2026-10-14	401.65	98.14	+1.40	DELL ahead
2026-10-13	452.69	99.39	+1.58	DELL ahead
2026-10-12	456.08	97.77	+1.63	DELL ahead
2026-10-09	463.44	97.82	+1.67	DELL ahead
2026-10-08	454.33	97.59	+1.66	DELL ahead
2026-10-07	457.82	94.97	+1.73	DELL ahead
2026-10-06	453.90	95.30	+1.73	DELL ahead
2026-10-05	436.73	95.43	+1.68	DELL ahead
2026-10-02	444.82	95.88	+1.72	DELL ahead
2026-10-01	428.39	97.17	+1.66	DELL ahead
2026-09-30	425.39	94.72	+1.71	DELL ahead
2026-09-29	426.69	94.74	+1.73	DELL ahead
2026-09-28	429.72	95.03	+1.75	DELL ahead
2026-09-25	445.11	97.12	+1.79	DELL ahead
2026-09-24	423.87	97.79	+1.72	DELL ahead
2026-09-23	434.79	100.24	+1.74	DELL ahead
2026-09-22	434.07	99.65	+1.77	DELL ahead
2026-09-21	454.93	99.88	+1.86	DELL ahead
2026-09-18	449.20	98.86	+1.88	DELL ahead
2026-09-17	465.29	102.39	+1.90	DELL ahead
2026-09-16	445.43	102.28	+1.85	DELL ahead
2026-09-15	429.79	106.96	+1.73	DELL ahead
2026-09-14	422.49	107.27	+1.72	DELL ahead
2026-09-11	448.59	104.78	+1.88	DELL ahead
2026-09-10	400.62	100.78	+1.77	DELL ahead
2026-09-09	423.26	103.33	+1.84	DELL ahead
2026-09-08	422.17	99.95	+1.92	DELL ahead
2026-09-04	414.47	101.16	+1.89	DELL ahead
2026-09-03	408.34	101.08	+1.89	DELL ahead
2026-09-02	389.21	99.78	+1.84	DELL ahead
2026-09-01	336.07	99.66	+1.60	DELL ahead
2026-08-31	360.60	100.72	+1.73	DELL ahead
2026-08-28	360.78	101.46	+1.73	DELL ahead
2026-08-27	373.45	102.84	+1.79	DELL ahead
2026-08-26	366.77	99.00	+1.85	DELL ahead
2026-08-25	357.03	100.86	+1.79	DELL ahead
2026-08-24	342.55	99.50	+1.75	DELL ahead
2026-08-21	349.58	101.50	+1.77	DELL ahead
2026-08-20	343.81	100.64	+1.78	DELL ahead
2026-08-19	346.00	102.14	+1.78	DELL ahead
2026-08-18	370.59	100.20	+1.97	DELL ahead
2026-08-17	379.42	98.56	+2.07	DELL ahead
2026-08-14	388.11	100.91	+2.09	DELL ahead
2026-08-13	391.04	102.13	+2.11	DELL ahead
2026-08-12	383.13	101.63	+2.11	DELL ahead
2026-08-11	348.70	102.68	+1.93	DELL ahead
2026-08-10	362.07	101.77	+2.05	DELL ahead
2026-08-07	358.82	102.19	+2.05	DELL ahead
2026-08-06	346.08	100.53	+2.03	DELL ahead
2026-08-05	365.89	101.60	+2.15	DELL ahead
2026-08-04	369.50	101.27	+2.21	DELL ahead
2026-08-03	339.25	97.46	+2.14	DELL ahead
2026-07-31	320.55	96.32	+2.08	DELL ahead
2026-07-30	320.11	95.50	+2.12	DELL ahead
2026-07-29	292.30	97.52	+1.91	DELL ahead
2026-07-28	310.06	98.00	+2.05	DELL ahead
2026-07-27	337.59	93.14	+2.37	DELL ahead
2026-07-24	345.96	92.24	+2.48	DELL ahead
2026-07-23	347.41	89.00	+2.62	DELL ahead
2026-07-22	349.36	88.62	+2.68	DELL ahead
2026-07-21	319.59	90.65	+2.48	DELL ahead
2026-07-20	301.98	91.73	+2.36	DELL ahead
2026-07-17	313.41	91.59	+2.49	DELL ahead
2026-07-16	309.49	94.34	+2.43	DELL ahead
2026-07-15	326.33	90.96	+2.68	DELL ahead
2026-07-14	361.81	93.48	+2.92	DELL ahead
2026-07-13	337.74	124.99	+2.09	DELL ahead
2026-07-10	343.96	123.84	+2.19	DELL ahead
2026-07-09	356.02	127.17	+2.24	DELL ahead
2026-07-08	341.59	130.08	+2.11	DELL ahead
2026-07-07	329.97	131.84	+2.02	DELL ahead
2026-07-06	325.64	128.99	+2.07	DELL ahead
2026-07-02	311.81	124.69	+2.07	DELL ahead
2026-07-01	336.27	123.28	+2.32	DELL ahead
2026-06-30	341.18	121.11	+2.44	DELL ahead
2026-06-29	327.86	119.72	+2.40	DELL ahead
2026-06-26	315.90	116.98	+2.40	DELL ahead
2026-06-25	323.78	111.23	+2.64	DELL ahead
2026-06-24	343.24	113.25	+2.80	DELL ahead
2026-06-23	338.27	114.10	+2.79	DELL ahead
2026-06-22	331.10	108.62	+2.93	DELL ahead
2026-06-18	323.82	107.28	+2.96	DELL ahead
2026-06-17	331.58	112.98	+2.94	DELL ahead
2026-06-16	319.53	116.63	+2.80	DELL ahead
2026-06-15	323.48	115.72	+2.92	DELL ahead
2026-06-12	312.80	117.24	+2.83	DELL ahead
2026-06-11	309.54	118.37	+2.83	DELL ahead
2026-06-10	292.45	117.30	+2.74	DELL ahead
2026-06-09	301.90	119.50	+2.83	DELL ahead
2026-06-08	316.91	120.94	+3.01	DELL ahead
2026-06-05	311.87	122.67	+2.98	DELL ahead
2026-06-04	333.74	129.96	+3.07	DELL ahead
2026-06-03	332.97	131.62	+3.09	DELL ahead
2026-06-02	344.23	141.79	+3.02	DELL ahead
2026-06-01	368.46	137.99	+3.43	DELL ahead
2026-05-29	332.84	128.25	+3.42	DELL ahead
2026-05-28	250.71	113.79	+2.91	DELL ahead
2026-05-27	241.44	109.91	+2.96	DELL ahead
2026-05-26	241.25	107.96	+3.09	DELL ahead
2026-05-22	233.43	109.32	+2.99	DELL ahead
2026-05-21	199.91	108.94	+2.47	DELL ahead
2026-05-20	192.10	96.90	+2.81	DELL ahead
2026-05-19	186.04	95.75	+2.79	DELL ahead
2026-05-18	188.23	95.93	+2.88	DELL ahead
2026-05-15	191.36	94.44	+3.08	DELL ahead
2026-05-14	196.02	94.04	+3.27	DELL ahead
2026-05-13	192.84	92.44	+3.35	DELL ahead
2026-05-12	188.95	94.41	+3.26	DELL ahead
2026-05-11	195.35	96.27	+3.40	DELL ahead
2026-05-08	205.96	98.95	+3.61	DELL ahead
2026-05-07	182.09	99.62	+3.10	DELL ahead
2026-05-06	188.83	97.22	+3.46	DELL ahead
2026-05-05	171.06	98.63	+3.00	DELL ahead
2026-05-04	167.36	98.83	+2.95	DELL ahead
2026-05-01	166.19	100.00	+2.91	DELL ahead
2026-04-30	165.23	99.47	+2.97	DELL ahead
2026-04-29	162.63	97.80	+3.04	DELL ahead
2026-04-28	162.84	100.36	+2.98	DELL ahead
2026-04-27	170.78	98.21	+3.42	DELL ahead
2026-04-24	170.88	99.91	+3.41	DELL ahead
2026-04-23	167.75	99.52	+3.41	DELL ahead
2026-04-22	169.74	108.47	+3.08	DELL ahead
2026-04-21	167.93	110.11	+2.99	DELL ahead
2026-04-20	161.51	109.26	+2.87	DELL ahead
2026-04-17	155.42	109.16	+2.71	DELL ahead
2026-04-16	152.69	108.10	+2.70	DELL ahead
2026-04-15	140.19	105.43	+2.40	DELL ahead
2026-04-14	145.90	103.48	+2.77	DELL ahead
2026-04-13	150.08	102.42	+3.04	DELL ahead
2026-04-10	140.60	99.38	+2.88	DELL ahead
2026-04-09	143.49	102.14	+2.89	DELL ahead
2026-04-08	146.66	104.11	+2.94	DELL ahead
2026-04-07	140.51	105.54	+2.64	DELL ahead
2026-04-06	136.94	106.26	+2.48	DELL ahead
2026-04-02	137.89	106.87	+2.53	DELL ahead
2026-04-01	133.94	104.71	+2.51	DELL ahead
2026-03-31	129.79	104.39	+2.38	DELL ahead
2026-03-30	130.21	102.17	+2.57	DELL ahead
2026-03-27	135.86	101.78	+2.91	DELL ahead
2026-03-26	139.03	104.08	+2.98	DELL ahead
2026-03-25	145.51	103.96	+3.36	DELL ahead
2026-03-24	139.89	103.61	+3.20	DELL ahead
2026-03-23	130.15	106.99	+2.55	DELL ahead
2026-03-20	124.68	104.12	+2.49	DELL ahead
2026-03-19	123.96	107.83	+2.24	DELL ahead
2026-03-18	117.99	108.35	+1.89	DELL ahead
2026-03-17	120.99	110.30	+1.96	DELL ahead
2026-03-16	123.79	107.34	+2.34	DELL ahead
2026-03-13	119.90	106.06	+2.23	DELL ahead
2026-03-12	118.54	106.67	+2.14	DELL ahead
2026-03-11	116.53	107.18	+2.00	DELL ahead
2026-03-10	113.71	107.75	+1.81	DELL ahead
2026-03-09	115.85	109.10	+1.87	DELL ahead
2026-03-06	115.83	111.48	+1.74	DELL ahead
2026-03-05	115.86	110.49	+1.82	DELL ahead
2026-03-04	116.32	107.69	+2.05	DELL ahead
2026-03-03	114.80	105.63	+2.13	DELL ahead
2026-03-02	121.42	103.09	+2.76	DELL ahead
2026-02-27	117.10	103.45	+2.51	DELL ahead
2026-02-26	96.04	104.22	+0.99	DELL ahead
2026-02-25	97.64	102.30	+1.26	DELL ahead
2026-02-24	94.72	98.76	+1.30	DELL ahead
2026-02-23	94.21	96.19	+1.47	DELL ahead
2026-02-20	96.69	110.75	+0.61	DELL ahead
2026-02-19	94.15	110.37	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-02-18	92.35	112.31	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2026-02-17	91.80	111.24	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2026-02-13	92.91	113.00	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2026-02-12	89.21	111.77	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2026-02-11	98.18	117.49	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2026-02-10	99.64	125.65	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2026-02-09	95.61	127.62	-0.54	IBM ahead
2026-02-06	95.72	128.74	-0.60	IBM ahead
2026-02-05	91.25	124.84	-0.73	IBM ahead
2026-02-04	96.50	124.48	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2026-02-03	92.64	126.75	-0.72	IBM ahead
2026-02-02	94.23	135.54	-1.10	IBM ahead
2026-01-30	90.50	132.08	-1.22	IBM ahead
2026-01-29	93.70	133.18	-1.03	IBM ahead
2026-01-28	92.77	126.68	-0.73	IBM ahead
2026-01-27	90.67	126.55	-0.90	IBM ahead
2026-01-26	91.67	127.62	-0.89	IBM ahead
2026-01-23	91.28	125.94	-0.83	IBM ahead
2026-01-22	92.65	126.90	-0.78	IBM ahead
2026-01-21	89.56	128.14	-1.12	IBM ahead
2026-01-20	87.83	125.47	-1.12	IBM ahead
2026-01-16	95.31	131.64	-0.87	IBM ahead
2026-01-15	94.62	128.32	-0.74	IBM ahead
2026-01-14	93.86	133.09	-1.08	IBM ahead
2026-01-13	94.62	130.56	-0.88	IBM ahead
2026-01-12	95.26	134.44	-1.06	IBM ahead
2026-01-09	95.38	131.02	-0.86	IBM ahead
2026-01-08	93.71	130.37	-0.97	IBM ahead
2026-01-07	94.95	127.79	-0.73	IBM ahead
2026-01-06	98.00	130.26	-0.64	IBM ahead
2026-01-05	98.06	127.03	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-01-02	101.06	125.54	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-12-31	99.54	127.57	-0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-12-30	101.15	130.08	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-12-29	100.79	131.67	-0.53	IBM ahead
2025-12-26	102.20	131.39	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-12-24	101.52	131.16	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-12-23	100.92	130.83	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-12-22	100.12	130.40	-0.53	IBM ahead
2025-12-19	99.97	129.62	-0.51	IBM ahead
2025-12-18	97.22	129.39	-0.70	IBM ahead
2025-12-17	101.13	130.63	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-12-16	105.76	130.57	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-12-15	103.20	132.93	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-12-12	102.78	133.18	-0.52	IBM ahead
2025-12-11	109.60	133.82	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-12-10	111.21	134.66	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-12-09	109.30	133.71	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-12-08	111.03	133.15	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-12-05	109.85	132.62	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-12-04	109.91	132.64	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-12-03	105.67	130.33	-0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-12-02	107.50	129.97	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-12-01	104.45	131.64	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-11-28	105.45	132.89	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-11-26	105.38	130.58	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-11-25	99.57	131.13	-0.68	IBM ahead
2025-11-24	100.60	130.97	-0.61	IBM ahead
2025-11-21	96.88	128.10	-0.72	IBM ahead
2025-11-20	92.84	125.06	-0.85	IBM ahead
2025-11-19	94.40	124.26	-0.70	IBM ahead
2025-11-18	97.02	124.87	-0.56	IBM ahead
2025-11-17	96.85	127.98	-0.74	IBM ahead
2025-11-14	105.77	131.65	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-11-13	105.91	131.29	-0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-11-12	111.27	135.65	-0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-11-11	109.73	135.11	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-11-10	112.83	133.13	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-11-07	116.01	131.95	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-11-06	117.97	134.55	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-11-05	120.52	132.11	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-11-04	122.28	129.57	+0.57	DELL ahead
2025-11-03	126.61	131.24	+0.70	DELL ahead
2025-10-31	128.11	132.39	+0.71	DELL ahead
2025-10-30	127.32	133.53	+0.62	DELL ahead
2025-10-29	129.37	132.73	+0.75	DELL ahead
2025-10-28	130.38	134.61	+0.71	DELL ahead
2025-10-27	128.25	134.84	+0.60	DELL ahead
2025-10-24	125.45	132.41	+0.58	DELL ahead
2025-10-23	121.96	122.74	+0.86	DELL ahead
2025-10-22	118.72	123.82	+0.65	DELL ahead
2025-10-21	118.16	121.47	+0.73	DELL ahead
2025-10-20	116.93	122.16	+0.63	DELL ahead
2025-10-17	118.29	121.14	+0.75	DELL ahead
2025-10-16	119.65	118.85	+0.93	DELL ahead
2025-10-15	121.54	120.91	+0.93	DELL ahead
2025-10-14	117.64	118.93	+0.83	DELL ahead
2025-10-13	121.30	119.39	+0.99	DELL ahead
2025-10-10	119.07	119.65	+0.87	DELL ahead
2025-10-09	123.32	124.13	+0.86	DELL ahead
2025-10-08	130.10	124.66	+1.16	DELL ahead
2025-10-07	119.30	126.56	+0.55	DELL ahead
2025-10-06	115.26	124.64	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-10-03	111.29	124.19	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-10-02	116.53	123.48	+0.55	DELL ahead
2025-10-01	118.36	123.38	+0.65	DELL ahead
2025-09-30	112.11	121.52	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-09-29	105.88	120.50	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-09-26	103.40	122.44	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-09-25	103.56	121.21	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-09-24	104.45	115.22	+0.30	near the usual relationship
2025-09-23	106.23	117.24	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-09-22	107.30	116.87	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-09-19	104.33	114.73	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-09-18	104.47	114.13	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-09-17	103.07	111.58	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-09-16	100.96	110.90	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-09-15	100.27	110.35	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-09-12	98.88	109.15	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-09-11	99.14	110.68	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-09-10	98.41	110.63	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-09-09	95.91	111.59	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-09-08	97.26	110.29	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-09-05	98.71	107.03	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-09-04	100.17	106.45	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-09-03	98.07	105.12	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-09-02	95.65	104.01	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-08-29	96.59	104.86	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-08-28	106.00	105.83	+0.83	DELL ahead
2025-08-27	104.78	105.44	+0.79	DELL ahead
2025-08-26	103.58	104.49	+0.77	DELL ahead
2025-08-25	103.60	103.11	+0.85	DELL ahead
2025-08-22	103.46	104.26	+0.77	DELL ahead
2025-08-21	101.08	103.10	+0.70	DELL ahead
2025-08-20	101.60	104.46	+0.65	DELL ahead
2025-08-19	106.91	103.91	+0.97	DELL ahead
2025-08-18	109.23	103.12	+1.15	DELL ahead
2025-08-15	109.35	103.24	+1.15	DELL ahead
2025-08-14	109.81	102.11	+1.24	DELL ahead
2025-08-13	110.03	103.39	+1.19	DELL ahead
2025-08-12	112.00	101.11	+1.44	DELL ahead
2025-08-11	109.38	101.77	+1.27	DELL ahead
2025-08-08	108.82	104.34	+1.10	DELL ahead
2025-08-07	105.91	107.73	+0.75	DELL ahead
2025-08-06	101.33	108.65	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-08-05	103.18	107.95	+0.58	DELL ahead
2025-08-04	102.98	108.52	+0.53	DELL ahead
2025-08-01	100.68	107.69	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-07-31	104.93	109.02	+0.61	DELL ahead
2025-07-30	105.60	112.08	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-07-29	105.57	113.01	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-07-28	105.85	113.35	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-07-25	103.76	111.85	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-07-24	101.49	112.19	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-07-23	100.60	121.45	-0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-07-22	98.32	121.43	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-07-21	101.98	122.61	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-07-18	103.78	123.11	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-07-17	97.96	121.45	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-07-16	97.71	121.41	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-07-15	99.39	121.75	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-07-14	99.38	122.22	-0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-07-11	100.29	122.13	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-07-10	101.15	123.79	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-07-09	100.13	124.95	-0.53	IBM ahead
2025-07-08	98.36	125.07	-0.62	IBM ahead
2025-07-07	98.66	125.96	-0.65	IBM ahead
2025-07-03	99.02	125.74	-0.63	IBM ahead
2025-07-02	97.64	123.88	-0.63	IBM ahead
2025-07-01	96.26	125.41	-0.76	IBM ahead
2025-06-30	96.95	126.95	-0.79	IBM ahead
2025-06-27	98.05	124.76	-0.66	IBM ahead
2025-06-26	99.62	125.72	-0.63	IBM ahead
2025-06-25	95.26	125.35	-0.82	IBM ahead
2025-06-24	95.36	126.52	-0.87	IBM ahead
2025-06-23	93.33	124.54	-0.90	IBM ahead
2025-06-20	94.39	121.00	-0.72	IBM ahead
2025-06-18	92.17	121.97	-0.87	IBM ahead
2025-06-17	91.67	121.90	-0.89	IBM ahead
2025-06-16	89.94	121.37	-0.96	IBM ahead
2025-06-13	86.64	119.39	-1.06	IBM ahead
2025-06-12	89.67	121.03	-0.98	IBM ahead
2025-06-11	87.96	121.24	-1.08	IBM ahead
2025-06-10	89.55	118.97	-0.93	IBM ahead
2025-06-09	90.32	117.17	-0.83	IBM ahead
2025-06-06	89.95	115.79	-0.80	IBM ahead
2025-06-05	88.42	114.93	-0.85	IBM ahead
2025-06-04	89.12	114.35	-0.80	IBM ahead
2025-06-03	88.49	114.21	-0.83	IBM ahead
2025-06-02	85.47	113.65	-0.95	IBM ahead
2025-05-30	87.99	111.57	-0.76	IBM ahead
2025-05-29	89.85	111.41	-0.68	IBM ahead
2025-05-28	89.97	112.08	-0.71	IBM ahead
2025-05-27	90.14	113.36	-0.75	IBM ahead
2025-05-23	88.65	111.38	-0.75	IBM ahead
2025-05-22	88.53	111.27	-0.76	IBM ahead
2025-05-21	88.51	112.35	-0.80	IBM ahead
2025-05-20	90.33	114.97	-0.82	IBM ahead
2025-05-19	90.37	115.59	-0.84	IBM ahead
2025-05-16	90.30	114.88	-0.83	IBM ahead
2025-05-15	87.67	114.85	-0.95	IBM ahead
2025-05-14	87.79	111.03	-0.82	IBM ahead
2025-05-13	85.28	111.37	-0.95	IBM ahead
2025-05-12	81.78	109.25	-1.04	IBM ahead
2025-05-09	75.84	107.32	-1.26	IBM ahead
2025-05-08	76.09	109.45	-1.34	IBM ahead
2025-05-07	75.75	109.12	-1.35	IBM ahead
2025-05-06	74.29	107.29	-1.37	IBM ahead
2025-05-05	74.62	107.31	-1.37	IBM ahead
2025-05-02	74.80	105.75	-1.32	IBM ahead
2025-05-01	72.71	103.21	-1.34	IBM ahead
2025-04-30	72.56	104.14	-1.39	IBM ahead
2025-04-29	74.16	103.10	-1.29	IBM ahead
2025-04-28	74.70	101.71	-1.22	IBM ahead
2025-04-25	75.04	100.09	-1.15	IBM ahead
2025-04-24	74.65	98.76	-1.13	IBM ahead
2025-04-23	70.50	105.72	-1.62	IBM ahead
2025-04-22	66.49	103.75	-1.78	IBM ahead
2025-04-21	65.15	101.73	-1.81	IBM ahead
2025-04-17	67.06	102.85	-1.76	IBM ahead
2025-04-16	65.92	102.74	-1.84	IBM ahead
2025-04-15	67.60	103.66	-1.80	IBM ahead
2025-04-14	67.37	102.95	-1.80	IBM ahead
2025-04-11	64.79	101.41	-1.92	IBM ahead
2025-04-10	62.42	98.86	-1.99	IBM ahead
2025-04-09	66.57	101.34	-1.85	IBM ahead
2025-04-08	57.40	95.19	-2.22	IBM ahead
2025-04-07	59.31	97.24	-2.21	IBM ahead
2025-04-04	56.64	97.97	-2.47	IBM ahead
2025-04-03	61.07	104.86	-2.48	IBM ahead
2025-04-02	75.38	107.66	-1.73	IBM ahead
2025-04-01	72.72	107.81	-1.91	IBM ahead
2025-03-31	72.08	107.09	-1.94	IBM ahead
2025-03-28	72.98	105.08	-1.83	IBM ahead
2025-03-27	76.78	106.03	-1.66	IBM ahead
2025-03-26	76.12	107.81	-1.79	IBM ahead
2025-03-25	78.17	107.62	-1.68	IBM ahead
2025-03-24	78.93	107.00	-1.63	IBM ahead
2025-03-21	77.15	105.03	-1.66	IBM ahead
2025-03-20	78.22	104.79	-1.61	IBM ahead
2025-03-19	78.06	108.65	-1.79	IBM ahead
2025-03-18	76.26	106.35	-1.82	IBM ahead
2025-03-17	77.23	108.94	-1.89	IBM ahead
2025-03-14	75.65	106.96	-1.92	IBM ahead
2025-03-13	73.11	105.86	-2.06	IBM ahead
2025-03-12	74.79	107.51	-2.05	IBM ahead
2025-03-11	72.41	107.21	-2.21	IBM ahead
2025-03-10	71.44	110.64	-2.46	IBM ahead
2025-03-07	72.32	112.64	-2.53	IBM ahead
2025-03-06	73.56	107.10	-2.24	IBM ahead
2025-03-05	76.90	108.25	-2.11	IBM ahead
2025-03-04	74.39	109.05	-2.33	IBM ahead
2025-03-03	75.57	107.75	-2.22	IBM ahead
2025-02-28	81.26	108.72	-1.92	IBM ahead
2025-02-27	85.27	109.06	-1.71	IBM ahead
2025-02-26	91.45	110.18	-1.41	IBM ahead
2025-02-25	87.50	111.00	-1.68	IBM ahead
2025-02-24	90.26	112.78	-1.60	IBM ahead
2025-02-21	92.99	112.61	-1.45	IBM ahead
2025-02-20	94.80	114.01	-1.41	IBM ahead
2025-02-19	95.65	113.83	-1.36	IBM ahead
2025-02-18	95.16	113.29	-1.36	IBM ahead
2025-02-14	90.45	112.52	-1.58	IBM ahead
2025-02-13	87.19	111.62	-1.73	IBM ahead
2025-02-12	89.29	110.17	-1.55	IBM ahead
2025-02-11	88.12	109.69	-1.60	IBM ahead
2025-02-10	88.81	107.35	-1.45	IBM ahead
2025-02-07	84.11	108.67	-1.79	IBM ahead
2025-02-06	83.76	109.15	-1.85	IBM ahead
2025-02-05	82.60	113.39	-2.12	IBM ahead
2025-02-04	80.40	113.89	-2.30	IBM ahead
2025-02-03	79.15	112.29	-2.33	IBM ahead
2025-01-31	81.92	110.12	-2.06	IBM ahead
2025-01-30	83.31	111.23	-2.03	IBM ahead
2025-01-29	81.53	98.46	-1.51	IBM ahead
2025-01-28	80.10	97.18	-1.53	IBM ahead
2025-01-27	82.11	96.52	-1.37	IBM ahead
2025-01-24	89.93	96.81	-0.91	IBM ahead
2025-01-23	90.32	97.35	-0.91	IBM ahead
2025-01-22	91.03	96.15	-0.81	IBM ahead
2025-01-21	88.21	96.58	-0.99	IBM ahead
2025-01-17	86.70	96.81	-1.09	IBM ahead
2025-01-16	87.07	95.89	-1.02	IBM ahead
2025-01-15	86.38	94.76	-1.00	IBM ahead
2025-01-14	86.24	93.78	-0.95	IBM ahead
2025-01-13	87.12	93.63	-0.89	IBM ahead
2025-01-10	90.76	94.64	-0.73	IBM ahead
2025-01-08	94.35	96.12	-0.61	IBM ahead
2025-01-07	95.90	96.45	-0.54	IBM ahead
2025-01-06	98.58	95.90	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-01-03	94.82	95.89	-0.56	IBM ahead
2025-01-02	92.15	94.72	-0.64	IBM ahead
2024-12-31	91.13	94.67	-0.69	IBM ahead
2024-12-30	90.80	94.85	-0.71	IBM ahead
2024-12-27	92.78	95.94	-0.66	IBM ahead
2024-12-26	94.32	96.85	-0.62	IBM ahead
2024-12-24	94.05	96.65	-0.62	IBM ahead
2024-12-23	93.96	95.58	-0.56	IBM ahead
2024-12-20	91.55	96.19	-0.72	IBM ahead
2024-12-19	88.53	96.43	-0.90	IBM ahead
2024-12-18	89.10	94.82	-0.77	IBM ahead
2024-12-17	93.53	98.61	-0.72	IBM ahead
2024-12-16	94.31	98.76	-0.68	IBM ahead
2024-12-13	93.67	99.41	-0.74	IBM ahead
2024-12-12	94.24	100.03	-0.74	IBM ahead
2024-12-11	93.86	99.10	-0.70	IBM ahead
2024-12-10	92.35	99.79	-0.81	IBM ahead
2024-12-09	97.90	99.05	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2024-12-06	97.58	102.52	-0.66	IBM ahead
2024-12-05	98.90	101.10	-0.52	IBM ahead
2024-12-04	99.72	100.56	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2024-12-03	99.29	98.62	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-12-02	99.51	97.93	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2024-11-29	100.89	97.94	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2024-11-27	98.36	97.73	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2024-11-26	112.08	98.55	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2024-11-25	114.00	97.39	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2024-11-22	114.04	96.02	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2024-11-21	109.85	95.78	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2024-11-20	105.93	92.42	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2024-11-19	107.46	90.55	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-11-18	107.55	89.62	+0.50	DELL ahead
2024-11-15	104.10	88.28	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-11-14	106.30	90.00	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-11-13	106.38	90.84	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2024-11-12	107.92	90.81	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-11-11	109.53	91.98	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-11-08	106.14	92.04	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2024-11-07	109.02	92.03	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-11-06	109.40	91.99	+0.50	DELL ahead
2024-11-05	105.54	89.39	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-11-04	102.68	88.85	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-11-01	103.49	89.69	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-10-31	97.76	89.03	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2024-10-30	102.32	88.24	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2024-10-29	96.18	90.62	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2024-10-28	95.41	91.69	-0.09	near the usual relationship
2024-10-25	96.91	92.45	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2024-10-24	95.34	94.05	-0.20	near the usual relationship
2024-10-23	94.49	100.24	-0.53	IBM ahead
2024-10-22	95.21	100.02	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-10-21	99.37	99.81	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	-0.26	near the usual relationship

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Apr 3, 2025 (DELL -19.0%, IBM -2.6%); Feb 27, 2026 (DELL +21.9%, IBM -0.7%); May 22, 2026 (DELL +16.8%, IBM +0.3%); May 29, 2026 (DELL +32.8%, IBM +12.7%); Jul 14, 2026 (DELL +7.1%, IBM -25.2%).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

DELL and IBM at a glance

DELL Dell Technologies Inc.

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1571996
Industry: Computer Manufacturing · SIC 3571 Electronic Computers
Market value: $289.6B
Price history: 1,970 daily closes, Dec 20, 2018 to Oct 22, 2026

IBM International Business Machines Corporation

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 51143
Industry: Computer Manufacturing · SIC 3570 Computer & office Equipment
Market value: $222.7B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
IBM / HPQ	Watchlist	HPQ by 1.57 sd	SIC 3570 Computer & office Equipment
AAPL / IBM	Watchlist	AAPL by 1.14 sd	Computer Manufacturing
IBM / HPE	Watchlist	HPE by 1.11 sd	SIC 3570 Computer & office Equipment
DELL / SMCI	Watchlist	DELL by 1.09 sd	SIC 3571 Electronic Computers
AAPL / DELL	Watchlist	DELL by 0.91 sd	Computer Manufacturing

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.