SIC 3585 Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip

Carrier Global Corporation vs Lennox International Inc.

WatchlistCARR / LIIPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($46B vs $12B) with SEC SIC 3585 (Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.64 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

CARR is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	CARR	LII	Larger
2025	$21.7B	$5.2B	CARR
2024	$22.5B	$5.3B	CARR
2023	$19.0B	$5.0B	CARR
2022	$17.3B	$4.7B	CARR
2021	$20.6B	$4.2B	CARR
2020	$17.5B	$3.6B	CARR

CARR led in every year with figures for both. Market value: CARR $45.5B, LII $12.3B.

Stock leadership

CARR is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

CARR leads LII by 1.40 standard deviations: +18.2% over its usual price ratio. 4 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
CARR	-18.0%	-8.2%	-5.6%
LII	-30.0%	-23.3%	-31.0%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 1658 (needs >= 254)
Pass: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.68 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.64 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 62.28 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

CARR Carrier Global Corporation LII Lennox International Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: CARR relative to LII, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: CARR ahead; below 0: LII ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	CARR index	LII index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	69.26	62.80	+1.40	CARR ahead
2026-10-21	69.25	60.75	+1.69	CARR ahead
2026-10-20	68.88	60.32	+1.72	CARR ahead
2026-10-19	67.70	59.00	+1.78	CARR ahead
2026-10-16	67.44	59.32	+1.72	CARR ahead
2026-10-15	67.39	59.45	+1.71	CARR ahead
2026-10-14	66.51	57.85	+1.85	CARR ahead
2026-10-13	67.48	58.06	+1.96	CARR ahead
2026-10-12	67.96	59.15	+1.88	CARR ahead
2026-10-09	68.13	59.11	+1.93	CARR ahead
2026-10-08	68.46	59.95	+1.87	CARR ahead
2026-10-07	67.44	59.44	+1.83	CARR ahead
2026-10-06	68.79	60.63	+1.85	CARR ahead
2026-10-05	68.34	59.89	+1.92	CARR ahead
2026-10-02	67.59	59.08	+1.97	CARR ahead
2026-10-01	67.71	59.77	+1.90	CARR ahead
2026-09-30	67.27	58.87	+2.00	CARR ahead
2026-09-29	67.91	59.72	+1.98	CARR ahead
2026-09-28	68.51	61.09	+1.88	CARR ahead
2026-09-25	69.12	61.98	+1.85	CARR ahead
2026-09-24	67.28	60.99	+1.77	CARR ahead
2026-09-23	67.57	61.74	+1.72	CARR ahead
2026-09-22	67.76	61.63	+1.78	CARR ahead
2026-09-21	66.98	60.30	+1.89	CARR ahead
2026-09-18	66.07	59.57	+1.90	CARR ahead
2026-09-17	66.70	59.54	+2.02	CARR ahead
2026-09-16	66.54	59.87	+1.97	CARR ahead
2026-09-15	68.11	60.06	+2.19	CARR ahead
2026-09-14	70.21	60.61	+2.43	CARR ahead
2026-09-11	70.46	60.70	+2.49	CARR ahead
2026-09-10	69.45	61.79	+2.21	CARR ahead
2026-09-09	71.06	62.31	+2.38	CARR ahead
2026-09-08	72.48	63.87	+2.37	CARR ahead
2026-09-04	73.22	64.76	+2.37	CARR ahead
2026-09-03	72.45	64.02	+2.42	CARR ahead
2026-09-02	70.61	62.02	+2.52	CARR ahead
2026-09-01	70.20	62.56	+2.41	CARR ahead
2026-08-31	71.39	63.45	+2.47	CARR ahead
2026-08-28	72.09	65.23	+2.32	CARR ahead
2026-08-27	72.15	64.86	+2.43	CARR ahead
2026-08-26	72.03	65.29	+2.37	CARR ahead
2026-08-25	71.76	64.52	+2.50	CARR ahead
2026-08-24	73.54	66.18	+2.54	CARR ahead
2026-08-21	74.03	66.81	+2.55	CARR ahead
2026-08-20	73.76	67.33	+2.45	CARR ahead
2026-08-19	75.05	69.54	+2.32	CARR ahead
2026-08-18	75.32	68.16	+2.63	CARR ahead
2026-08-17	76.71	69.00	+2.76	CARR ahead
2026-08-14	76.98	69.98	+2.68	CARR ahead
2026-08-13	77.68	69.37	+2.95	CARR ahead
2026-08-12	77.35	69.80	+2.88	CARR ahead
2026-08-11	78.01	71.44	+2.75	CARR ahead
2026-08-10	77.79	70.19	+3.00	CARR ahead
2026-08-07	78.49	72.92	+2.68	CARR ahead
2026-08-06	78.43	72.25	+2.84	CARR ahead
2026-08-05	80.23	74.10	+2.86	CARR ahead
2026-08-04	80.55	74.08	+2.98	CARR ahead
2026-08-03	77.46	72.13	+2.87	CARR ahead
2026-07-31	75.79	68.96	+3.27	CARR ahead
2026-07-30	75.28	69.22	+3.19	CARR ahead
2026-07-29	73.48	71.31	+2.46	CARR ahead
2026-07-28	77.45	90.23	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2026-07-27	85.02	90.76	+1.09	CARR ahead
2026-07-24	84.46	89.73	+1.17	CARR ahead
2026-07-23	84.79	89.19	+1.32	CARR ahead
2026-07-22	83.51	88.35	+1.24	CARR ahead
2026-07-21	81.78	87.87	+1.01	CARR ahead
2026-07-20	82.13	88.48	+0.98	CARR ahead
2026-07-17	84.23	90.20	+1.06	CARR ahead
2026-07-16	85.03	92.62	+0.82	CARR ahead
2026-07-15	84.29	90.98	+0.95	CARR ahead
2026-07-14	85.54	93.32	+0.79	CARR ahead
2026-07-13	84.13	91.40	+0.86	CARR ahead
2026-07-10	85.03	91.54	+0.99	CARR ahead
2026-07-09	83.15	89.13	+1.05	CARR ahead
2026-07-08	81.84	89.17	+0.81	CARR ahead
2026-07-07	84.21	92.35	+0.71	CARR ahead
2026-07-06	85.96	94.19	+0.73	CARR ahead
2026-07-02	85.92	94.52	+0.67	CARR ahead
2026-07-01	88.38	94.70	+1.05	CARR ahead
2026-06-30	89.94	95.01	+1.25	CARR ahead
2026-06-29	90.04	94.33	+1.37	CARR ahead
2026-06-26	90.24	93.50	+1.53	CARR ahead
2026-06-25	93.19	94.64	+1.83	CARR ahead
2026-06-24	90.82	91.49	+1.96	CARR ahead
2026-06-23	86.76	86.82	+2.07	CARR ahead
2026-06-22	88.11	88.89	+1.97	CARR ahead
2026-06-18	88.06	88.29	+2.07	CARR ahead
2026-06-17	85.21	85.58	+2.05	CARR ahead
2026-06-16	87.25	87.61	+2.06	CARR ahead
2026-06-15	87.22	86.92	+2.18	CARR ahead
2026-06-12	85.73	84.93	+2.28	CARR ahead
2026-06-11	85.52	85.74	+2.11	CARR ahead
2026-06-10	83.35	83.71	+2.10	CARR ahead
2026-06-09	87.36	87.73	+2.11	CARR ahead
2026-06-08	82.59	85.14	+1.72	CARR ahead
2026-06-05	82.35	84.31	+1.83	CARR ahead
2026-06-04	84.05	85.91	+1.87	CARR ahead
2026-06-03	82.87	85.45	+1.74	CARR ahead
2026-06-02	81.45	85.63	+1.45	CARR ahead
2026-06-01	79.84	82.38	+1.75	CARR ahead
2026-05-29	78.32	83.27	+1.28	CARR ahead
2026-05-28	78.25	82.42	+1.43	CARR ahead
2026-05-27	79.10	83.44	+1.42	CARR ahead
2026-05-26	79.57	83.34	+1.53	CARR ahead
2026-05-22	77.42	80.36	+1.68	CARR ahead
2026-05-21	76.25	79.68	+1.58	CARR ahead
2026-05-20	77.98	81.81	+1.52	CARR ahead
2026-05-19	75.34	80.04	+1.33	CARR ahead
2026-05-18	79.10	83.15	+1.50	CARR ahead
2026-05-15	79.30	82.91	+1.59	CARR ahead
2026-05-14	81.83	85.30	+1.65	CARR ahead
2026-05-13	80.40	84.16	+1.59	CARR ahead
2026-05-12	80.39	84.33	+1.57	CARR ahead
2026-05-11	80.78	86.47	+1.25	CARR ahead
2026-05-08	81.95	86.44	+1.49	CARR ahead
2026-05-07	82.43	87.32	+1.43	CARR ahead
2026-05-06	83.26	89.77	+1.14	CARR ahead
2026-05-05	78.70	86.59	+0.81	CARR ahead
2026-05-04	80.80	85.38	+1.46	CARR ahead
2026-05-01	82.92	87.28	+1.54	CARR ahead
2026-04-30	82.37	88.70	+1.18	CARR ahead
2026-04-29	75.71	85.83	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-04-28	76.03	82.17	+1.13	CARR ahead
2026-04-27	75.92	83.28	+0.90	CARR ahead
2026-04-24	74.76	81.41	+1.03	CARR ahead
2026-04-23	75.46	81.86	+1.10	CARR ahead
2026-04-22	74.37	81.21	+1.00	CARR ahead
2026-04-21	75.67	81.70	+1.19	CARR ahead
2026-04-20	75.60	81.83	+1.16	CARR ahead
2026-04-17	75.19	80.77	+1.29	CARR ahead
2026-04-16	73.22	79.47	+1.13	CARR ahead
2026-04-15	71.80	80.31	+0.65	CARR ahead
2026-04-14	79.29	86.30	+1.10	CARR ahead
2026-04-13	78.87	85.88	+1.10	CARR ahead
2026-04-10	77.67	83.79	+1.26	CARR ahead
2026-04-09	75.36	81.03	+1.33	CARR ahead
2026-04-08	71.48	79.28	+0.83	CARR ahead
2026-04-07	67.98	74.73	+0.98	CARR ahead
2026-04-06	68.17	75.22	+0.93	CARR ahead
2026-04-02	68.31	75.39	+0.93	CARR ahead
2026-04-01	69.77	77.08	+0.92	CARR ahead
2026-03-31	69.05	76.96	+0.78	CARR ahead
2026-03-30	66.66	73.62	+0.94	CARR ahead
2026-03-27	66.52	72.61	+1.14	CARR ahead
2026-03-26	67.04	72.68	+1.26	CARR ahead
2026-03-25	72.65	79.87	+1.04	CARR ahead
2026-03-24	71.83	79.09	+1.02	CARR ahead
2026-03-23	71.49	79.09	+0.94	CARR ahead
2026-03-20	71.21	77.59	+1.20	CARR ahead
2026-03-19	72.31	79.13	+1.14	CARR ahead
2026-03-18	70.64	79.26	+0.73	CARR ahead
2026-03-17	69.87	80.75	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2026-03-16	68.49	79.41	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-03-13	68.24	79.75	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2026-03-12	69.27	79.98	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2026-03-11	71.97	84.35	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2026-03-10	71.65	84.88	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2026-03-09	72.00	85.72	-0.25	near the usual relationship
2026-03-06	71.55	85.81	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-03-05	74.06	87.67	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2026-03-04	74.90	91.31	-0.63	LII ahead
2026-03-03	75.01	91.58	-0.65	LII ahead
2026-03-02	78.28	93.43	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2026-02-27	78.97	94.51	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2026-02-26	76.96	90.28	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2026-02-25	75.41	89.54	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-02-24	77.90	92.58	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-02-23	77.82	92.01	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2026-02-20	78.65	93.03	-0.09	near the usual relationship
2026-02-19	77.16	91.26	-0.09	near the usual relationship
2026-02-18	78.88	91.85	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-02-17	81.46	93.77	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-02-13	80.20	93.96	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2026-02-12	79.57	92.62	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-02-11	82.26	92.45	+0.75	CARR ahead
2026-02-10	80.71	90.96	+0.71	CARR ahead
2026-02-09	80.10	87.77	+1.16	CARR ahead
2026-02-06	78.38	87.88	+0.80	CARR ahead
2026-02-05	77.38	85.76	+0.99	CARR ahead
2026-02-04	77.93	88.64	+0.59	CARR ahead
2026-02-03	75.05	84.32	+0.79	CARR ahead
2026-02-02	74.02	82.13	+0.99	CARR ahead
2026-01-30	73.06	82.10	+0.80	CARR ahead
2026-01-29	73.32	82.27	+0.83	CARR ahead
2026-01-28	71.01	80.84	+0.61	CARR ahead
2026-01-27	69.98	82.71	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2026-01-26	70.35	84.97	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2026-01-23	70.26	84.53	-0.24	near the usual relationship
2026-01-22	70.44	84.52	-0.20	near the usual relationship
2026-01-21	70.80	85.63	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2026-01-20	67.70	83.81	-0.67	LII ahead
2026-01-16	68.90	87.20	-1.02	LII ahead
2026-01-15	68.12	86.61	-1.09	LII ahead
2026-01-14	68.18	87.10	-1.17	LII ahead
2026-01-13	67.70	88.05	-1.45	LII ahead
2026-01-12	67.91	88.43	-1.48	LII ahead
2026-01-09	68.98	87.92	-1.15	LII ahead
2026-01-08	66.05	85.67	-1.44	LII ahead
2026-01-07	64.46	83.74	-1.47	LII ahead
2026-01-06	65.60	86.20	-1.67	LII ahead
2026-01-05	65.96	83.56	-1.09	LII ahead
2026-01-02	65.63	82.73	-1.02	LII ahead
2025-12-31	64.79	80.52	-0.79	LII ahead
2025-12-30	65.52	81.92	-0.89	LII ahead
2025-12-29	65.74	82.34	-0.92	LII ahead
2025-12-26	65.71	82.61	-0.98	LII ahead
2025-12-24	65.60	82.45	-0.98	LII ahead
2025-12-23	65.41	82.01	-0.94	LII ahead
2025-12-22	65.24	82.16	-1.01	LII ahead
2025-12-19	65.94	82.40	-0.89	LII ahead
2025-12-18	65.24	81.92	-0.96	LII ahead
2025-12-17	64.26	80.83	-0.99	LII ahead
2025-12-16	65.53	81.66	-0.84	LII ahead
2025-12-15	64.48	82.27	-1.23	LII ahead
2025-12-12	64.92	83.87	-1.44	LII ahead
2025-12-11	66.40	85.38	-1.37	LII ahead
2025-12-10	65.48	83.87	-1.32	LII ahead
2025-12-09	64.79	82.99	-1.33	LII ahead
2025-12-08	65.03	83.48	-1.37	LII ahead
2025-12-05	66.57	84.84	-1.26	LII ahead
2025-12-04	66.83	83.70	-0.98	LII ahead
2025-12-03	66.98	82.91	-0.80	LII ahead
2025-12-02	66.00	80.80	-0.62	LII ahead
2025-12-01	66.52	81.16	-0.57	LII ahead
2025-11-28	67.30	82.72	-0.69	LII ahead
2025-11-26	66.66	81.82	-0.67	LII ahead
2025-11-25	66.16	80.29	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-11-24	63.46	77.14	-0.52	LII ahead
2025-11-21	64.27	77.13	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-11-20	61.75	73.67	-0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-11-19	62.84	74.03	-0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-11-18	63.78	75.54	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-11-17	65.15	76.26	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-11-14	66.34	78.19	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-11-13	67.64	79.04	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-11-12	68.66	79.09	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-11-11	69.86	80.82	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-11-10	70.30	81.16	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-11-07	70.52	81.62	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-11-06	69.37	81.42	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-11-05	69.71	81.25	+0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-11-04	70.57	81.61	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-11-03	70.95	81.90	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-10-31	72.95	83.74	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-10-30	72.16	82.20	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-10-29	74.49	80.89	+1.26	CARR ahead
2025-10-28	72.03	83.10	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2025-10-27	71.48	83.28	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-10-24	70.93	82.29	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-10-23	70.04	82.08	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-10-22	69.58	81.76	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-10-21	73.35	91.04	-0.89	LII ahead
2025-10-20	70.72	88.67	-1.05	LII ahead
2025-10-17	68.91	86.72	-1.11	LII ahead
2025-10-16	69.59	86.88	-1.00	LII ahead
2025-10-15	70.15	87.39	-0.97	LII ahead
2025-10-14	70.51	88.03	-1.00	LII ahead
2025-10-13	69.74	86.93	-0.99	LII ahead
2025-10-10	69.48	86.97	-1.06	LII ahead
2025-10-09	71.24	88.61	-0.97	LII ahead
2025-10-08	73.33	91.96	-1.09	LII ahead
2025-10-07	72.57	89.88	-0.92	LII ahead
2025-10-06	73.34	91.80	-1.07	LII ahead
2025-10-03	73.15	91.31	-1.04	LII ahead
2025-10-02	72.23	90.64	-1.12	LII ahead
2025-10-01	72.91	89.06	-0.75	LII ahead
2025-09-30	73.21	87.78	-0.51	LII ahead
2025-09-29	72.51	86.34	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-09-26	72.15	86.55	-0.52	LII ahead
2025-09-25	72.04	85.59	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-09-24	72.34	86.63	-0.51	LII ahead
2025-09-23	73.26	88.00	-0.56	LII ahead
2025-09-22	73.95	88.52	-0.52	LII ahead
2025-09-19	74.05	89.49	-0.65	LII ahead
2025-09-18	74.92	89.83	-0.55	LII ahead
2025-09-17	74.46	90.53	-0.74	LII ahead
2025-09-16	74.71	91.27	-0.81	LII ahead
2025-09-15	75.10	91.51	-0.79	LII ahead
2025-09-12	75.62	90.29	-0.52	LII ahead
2025-09-11	76.39	94.07	-0.94	LII ahead
2025-09-10	76.64	92.66	-0.70	LII ahead
2025-09-09	77.83	92.54	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-09-08	80.45	96.25	-0.57	LII ahead
2025-09-05	80.33	95.85	-0.54	LII ahead
2025-09-04	77.92	93.09	-0.56	LII ahead
2025-09-03	76.60	90.38	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-09-02	77.87	90.14	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-08-29	79.95	92.51	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-08-28	81.14	92.78	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-08-27	82.88	94.02	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-08-26	81.52	94.13	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-08-25	80.93	94.61	-0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-08-22	83.08	98.15	-0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-08-21	79.72	94.63	-0.50	LII ahead
2025-08-20	81.96	97.68	-0.55	LII ahead
2025-08-19	82.13	101.73	-1.07	LII ahead
2025-08-18	81.53	99.50	-0.87	LII ahead
2025-08-15	80.20	98.11	-0.91	LII ahead
2025-08-14	80.64	99.35	-1.01	LII ahead
2025-08-13	82.22	101.43	-1.03	LII ahead
2025-08-12	80.60	97.92	-0.83	LII ahead
2025-08-11	79.56	96.57	-0.82	LII ahead
2025-08-08	80.97	96.54	-0.58	LII ahead
2025-08-07	81.37	98.48	-0.78	LII ahead
2025-08-06	81.07	98.65	-0.86	LII ahead
2025-08-05	81.40	99.99	-1.00	LII ahead
2025-08-04	81.59	99.57	-0.91	LII ahead
2025-08-01	82.06	100.47	-0.96	LII ahead
2025-07-31	84.14	100.99	-0.69	LII ahead
2025-07-30	83.63	102.08	-0.93	LII ahead
2025-07-29	87.88	106.05	-0.78	LII ahead
2025-07-28	98.32	108.52	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-07-25	98.99	109.58	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-07-24	97.41	110.20	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-07-23	97.62	109.58	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-07-22	93.71	102.81	+0.51	CARR ahead
2025-07-21	93.16	99.67	+0.86	CARR ahead
2025-07-18	93.97	101.06	+0.79	CARR ahead
2025-07-17	94.33	101.46	+0.79	CARR ahead
2025-07-16	92.50	99.02	+0.86	CARR ahead
2025-07-15	92.43	100.19	+0.69	CARR ahead
2025-07-14	93.94	102.02	+0.67	CARR ahead
2025-07-11	93.95	102.29	+0.64	CARR ahead
2025-07-10	94.14	102.38	+0.66	CARR ahead
2025-07-09	93.06	99.89	+0.84	CARR ahead
2025-07-08	91.85	98.59	+0.85	CARR ahead
2025-07-07	91.53	98.18	+0.86	CARR ahead
2025-07-03	92.77	100.19	+0.77	CARR ahead
2025-07-02	92.29	99.84	+0.75	CARR ahead
2025-07-01	91.11	99.27	+0.66	CARR ahead
2025-06-30	89.75	95.06	+1.06	CARR ahead
2025-06-27	90.34	94.10	+1.29	CARR ahead
2025-06-26	89.01	93.61	+1.17	CARR ahead
2025-06-25	88.82	93.69	+1.14	CARR ahead
2025-06-24	88.85	94.38	+1.05	CARR ahead
2025-06-23	88.02	93.55	+1.04	CARR ahead
2025-06-20	86.41	91.23	+1.14	CARR ahead
2025-06-18	85.67	90.86	+1.09	CARR ahead
2025-06-17	85.57	89.13	+1.35	CARR ahead
2025-06-16	87.11	90.20	+1.44	CARR ahead
2025-06-13	87.36	89.23	+1.65	CARR ahead
2025-06-12	88.88	91.24	+1.59	CARR ahead
2025-06-11	88.88	91.36	+1.57	CARR ahead
2025-06-10	87.98	92.08	+1.32	CARR ahead
2025-06-09	87.86	92.21	+1.28	CARR ahead
2025-06-06	87.11	91.59	+1.26	CARR ahead
2025-06-05	87.55	91.30	+1.38	CARR ahead
2025-06-04	87.54	93.11	+1.10	CARR ahead
2025-06-03	86.82	92.98	+1.00	CARR ahead
2025-06-02	86.25	91.50	+1.13	CARR ahead
2025-05-30	87.31	93.60	+0.98	CARR ahead
2025-05-29	87.57	94.44	+0.89	CARR ahead
2025-05-28	87.11	94.23	+0.84	CARR ahead
2025-05-27	88.69	96.05	+0.82	CARR ahead
2025-05-23	87.04	94.05	+0.84	CARR ahead
2025-05-22	88.01	95.28	+0.81	CARR ahead
2025-05-21	88.40	94.51	+0.98	CARR ahead
2025-05-20	91.91	99.01	+0.87	CARR ahead
2025-05-19	92.99	100.24	+0.85	CARR ahead
2025-05-16	92.73	100.45	+0.78	CARR ahead
2025-05-15	90.10	98.54	+0.64	CARR ahead
2025-05-14	89.96	98.06	+0.68	CARR ahead
2025-05-13	91.54	99.88	+0.66	CARR ahead
2025-05-12	90.06	98.79	+0.58	CARR ahead
2025-05-09	87.60	95.13	+0.71	CARR ahead
2025-05-08	86.45	95.58	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-05-07	85.82	94.18	+0.55	CARR ahead
2025-05-06	86.07	93.97	+0.61	CARR ahead
2025-05-05	86.83	93.35	+0.81	CARR ahead
2025-05-02	87.71	93.11	+0.97	CARR ahead
2025-05-01	85.59	92.37	+0.75	CARR ahead
2025-04-30	76.69	90.66	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-04-29	74.58	88.70	-0.54	LII ahead
2025-04-28	74.18	88.08	-0.52	LII ahead
2025-04-25	73.65	87.44	-0.52	LII ahead
2025-04-24	73.95	86.90	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-04-23	71.86	84.36	-0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-04-22	72.92	92.68	-1.43	LII ahead
2025-04-21	71.34	89.71	-1.30	LII ahead
2025-04-17	73.45	92.22	-1.29	LII ahead
2025-04-16	72.58	90.85	-1.26	LII ahead
2025-04-15	74.15	92.40	-1.21	LII ahead
2025-04-14	74.30	92.64	-1.22	LII ahead
2025-04-11	72.67	91.94	-1.43	LII ahead
2025-04-10	72.41	91.25	-1.39	LII ahead
2025-04-09	74.52	93.06	-1.28	LII ahead
2025-04-08	68.12	84.66	-1.22	LII ahead
2025-04-07	69.69	86.93	-1.28	LII ahead
2025-04-04	70.12	88.10	-1.39	LII ahead
2025-04-03	74.46	90.68	-0.97	LII ahead
2025-04-02	79.75	95.27	-0.70	LII ahead
2025-04-01	77.92	93.66	-0.79	LII ahead
2025-03-31	77.74	93.00	-0.73	LII ahead
2025-03-28	77.66	91.71	-0.56	LII ahead
2025-03-27	80.53	95.73	-0.65	LII ahead
2025-03-26	82.12	95.99	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-03-25	83.52	97.49	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-03-24	83.34	97.21	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-03-21	81.14	94.44	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-03-20	81.46	95.97	-0.54	LII ahead
2025-03-19	82.99	98.07	-0.58	LII ahead
2025-03-18	82.53	96.40	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-03-17	82.93	97.70	-0.54	LII ahead
2025-03-14	81.58	95.34	-0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-03-13	78.79	92.61	-0.52	LII ahead
2025-03-12	80.23	94.46	-0.55	LII ahead
2025-03-11	80.50	93.88	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-03-10	82.22	100.26	-1.04	LII ahead
2025-03-07	82.64	100.59	-1.03	LII ahead
2025-03-06	80.16	96.82	-0.92	LII ahead
2025-03-05	79.55	97.52	-1.14	LII ahead
2025-03-04	76.11	95.01	-1.40	LII ahead
2025-03-03	77.57	97.34	-1.48	LII ahead
2025-02-28	79.46	99.67	-1.49	LII ahead
2025-02-27	78.58	99.87	-1.69	LII ahead
2025-02-26	81.05	103.30	-1.74	LII ahead
2025-02-25	82.40	102.61	-1.42	LII ahead
2025-02-24	81.61	101.10	-1.36	LII ahead
2025-02-21	81.09	101.81	-1.56	LII ahead
2025-02-20	82.29	106.36	-2.01	LII ahead
2025-02-19	80.91	107.98	-2.51	LII ahead
2025-02-18	81.66	105.47	-2.06	LII ahead
2025-02-14	79.87	103.18	-2.09	LII ahead
2025-02-13	78.07	102.80	-2.41	LII ahead
2025-02-12	77.99	100.94	-2.18	LII ahead
2025-02-11	79.90	99.88	-1.67	LII ahead
2025-02-10	81.21	96.70	-0.92	LII ahead
2025-02-07	78.69	95.37	-1.21	LII ahead
2025-02-06	79.96	97.07	-1.24	LII ahead
2025-02-05	79.17	97.01	-1.40	LII ahead
2025-02-04	78.33	95.91	-1.39	LII ahead
2025-02-03	77.44	96.66	-1.71	LII ahead
2025-01-31	80.17	98.24	-1.44	LII ahead
2025-01-30	80.90	100.58	-1.68	LII ahead
2025-01-29	79.46	100.21	-1.92	LII ahead
2025-01-28	82.53	109.87	-2.82	LII ahead
2025-01-27	82.69	108.78	-2.68	LII ahead
2025-01-24	85.98	109.88	-2.25	LII ahead
2025-01-23	85.69	110.59	-2.45	LII ahead
2025-01-22	85.87	109.99	-2.36	LII ahead
2025-01-21	86.51	110.04	-2.27	LII ahead
2025-01-17	85.42	107.36	-2.10	LII ahead
2025-01-16	85.52	106.60	-1.98	LII ahead
2025-01-15	84.37	104.59	-1.91	LII ahead
2025-01-14	83.87	104.09	-1.95	LII ahead
2025-01-13	82.29	102.56	-2.05	LII ahead
2025-01-10	81.56	101.16	-1.99	LII ahead
2025-01-08	83.94	103.73	-1.95	LII ahead
2025-01-07	83.64	101.37	-1.63	LII ahead
2025-01-06	84.26	101.15	-1.47	LII ahead
2025-01-03	84.93	101.60	-1.43	LII ahead
2025-01-02	83.79	100.24	-1.44	LII ahead
2024-12-31	83.70	101.04	-1.61	LII ahead
2024-12-30	83.67	101.81	-1.77	LII ahead
2024-12-27	84.49	102.82	-1.79	LII ahead
2024-12-26	85.40	104.41	-1.90	LII ahead
2024-12-24	85.16	104.66	-2.02	LII ahead
2024-12-23	84.35	103.65	-2.04	LII ahead
2024-12-20	83.99	104.18	-2.24	LII ahead
2024-12-19	81.78	102.79	-2.53	LII ahead
2024-12-18	82.19	105.85	-3.04	LII ahead
2024-12-17	86.18	109.04	-2.76	LII ahead
2024-12-16	87.79	110.78	-2.76	LII ahead
2024-12-13	89.53	110.19	-2.30	LII ahead
2024-12-12	90.18	109.78	-2.11	LII ahead
2024-12-11	90.37	109.03	-1.96	LII ahead
2024-12-10	89.28	107.21	-1.89	LII ahead
2024-12-09	89.76	105.93	-1.56	LII ahead
2024-12-06	90.34	109.63	-2.14	LII ahead
2024-12-05	90.73	108.01	-1.78	LII ahead
2024-12-04	92.43	110.36	-1.86	LII ahead
2024-12-03	92.68	110.10	-1.77	LII ahead
2024-12-02	93.55	110.68	-1.71	LII ahead
2024-11-29	94.87	110.63	-1.42	LII ahead
2024-11-27	94.30	109.45	-1.34	LII ahead
2024-11-26	94.35	110.48	-1.53	LII ahead
2024-11-25	96.71	112.50	-1.41	LII ahead
2024-11-22	94.42	109.06	-1.27	LII ahead
2024-11-21	93.21	107.88	-1.33	LII ahead
2024-11-20	91.35	103.70	-0.92	LII ahead
2024-11-19	91.15	103.41	-0.92	LII ahead
2024-11-18	90.80	102.84	-0.89	LII ahead
2024-11-15	91.39	101.18	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-11-14	91.93	102.46	-0.56	LII ahead
2024-11-13	93.68	102.70	-0.22	near the usual relationship
2024-11-12	92.51	102.16	-0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-11-11	93.55	104.55	-0.63	LII ahead
2024-11-08	94.03	104.63	-0.55	LII ahead
2024-11-07	92.13	103.18	-0.69	LII ahead
2024-11-06	92.43	100.29	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2024-11-05	90.62	103.74	-1.16	LII ahead
2024-11-04	88.78	100.27	-0.88	LII ahead
2024-11-01	89.01	100.07	-0.79	LII ahead
2024-10-31	89.17	99.92	-0.73	LII ahead
2024-10-30	90.25	99.58	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2024-10-29	91.48	101.29	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-10-28	92.78	101.59	-0.26	near the usual relationship
2024-10-25	90.40	101.02	-0.69	LII ahead
2024-10-24	89.39	102.92	-1.31	LII ahead
2024-10-23	98.04	101.11	+0.93	CARR ahead
2024-10-22	98.28	98.56	+1.49	CARR ahead
2024-10-21	99.79	99.99	+1.50	CARR ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	+1.53	CARR ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 24, 2024 (CARR -8.8%, LII +1.8%); Apr 23, 2025 (CARR -1.5%, LII -9.0%); May 1, 2025 (CARR +11.6%, LII +1.9%); Jul 29, 2025 (CARR -10.6%, LII -2.3%); Jul 28, 2026 (CARR -8.9%, LII -0.6%); Jul 29, 2026 (CARR -5.1%, LII -21.0%). Upcoming earnings: LII Oct 28, 2026 (pre-market); CARR Oct 29, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

1 simulated trade to Oct 20, 2026: +6.52% per trade on average after costs, 1 won.

Legs	Entered	Exited	Why	Days	Before costs	Costs + borrow	After costs
Long CARR · Short LII	Sep 2, 2022	Jan 5, 2023	converged	125	$733.14	-$79.48	$652.39 (+6.52%)

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

CARR and LII at a glance

CARR Carrier Global Corporation

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1783180
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components · SIC 3585 Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip
Market value: $45.5B
Price history: 1,658 daily closes, Mar 19, 2020 to Oct 22, 2026

LII Lennox International Inc.

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1069202
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components · SIC 3585 Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip
Market value: $12.3B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
JCI / LII	Watchlist	JCI by 1.51 sd	SIC 3585 Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip
JCI / CARR	Watchlist	JCI by 1.34 sd	SIC 3585 Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.