Diversified Commercial Services

Airbnb Inc. vs PayPal Holdings Inc.

WatchlistABNB / PYPLPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($105B vs $48B) in Nasdaq's "Diversified Commercial Services" industry; SEC SIC 7340 / 7389 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.33 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.00 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

PYPL is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	ABNB	PYPL	Larger
2025	$12.2B	$33.2B	PYPL
2024	$11.1B	$31.8B	PYPL
2023	$9.9B	$29.8B	PYPL
2022	$8.4B	$27.5B	PYPL
2021	$6.0B	$25.4B	PYPL
2020	$3.4B	$21.5B	PYPL

PYPL led in every year with figures for both. Market value: ABNB $105.1B, PYPL $48.3B.

Stock leadership

ABNB is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

ABNB leads PYPL by 0.70 standard deviations: +13.5% over its usual price ratio. 0 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
ABNB	+24.6%	+23.9%	+36.7%
PYPL	+2.5%	+15.6%	-17.9%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 1473 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.33 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.00 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 32.48 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

ABNB Airbnb Inc. PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: ABNB relative to PYPL, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: ABNB ahead; below 0: PYPL ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	ABNB index	PYPL index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	128.81	71.08	+0.70	ABNB ahead
2026-10-21	127.29	70.67	+0.67	ABNB ahead
2026-10-20	129.67	70.60	+0.79	ABNB ahead
2026-10-19	128.59	69.82	+0.81	ABNB ahead
2026-10-16	127.30	70.05	+0.74	ABNB ahead
2026-10-15	127.72	70.62	+0.72	ABNB ahead
2026-10-14	122.43	69.31	+0.60	ABNB ahead
2026-10-13	121.35	69.40	+0.55	ABNB ahead
2026-10-12	119.82	69.25	+0.50	ABNB ahead
2026-10-09	121.56	68.61	+0.63	ABNB ahead
2026-10-08	119.63	67.98	+0.60	ABNB ahead
2026-10-07	117.72	67.89	+0.53	ABNB ahead
2026-10-06	117.54	67.47	+0.56	ABNB ahead
2026-10-05	120.24	67.22	+0.70	ABNB ahead
2026-10-02	119.04	65.23	+0.80	ABNB ahead
2026-10-01	117.60	65.55	+0.73	ABNB ahead
2026-09-30	117.74	64.90	+0.79	ABNB ahead
2026-09-29	115.03	66.58	+0.56	ABNB ahead
2026-09-28	114.39	67.06	+0.50	ABNB ahead
2026-09-25	115.40	68.00	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-09-24	110.95	64.99	+0.52	ABNB ahead
2026-09-23	109.62	64.88	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-09-22	118.59	65.34	+0.82	ABNB ahead
2026-09-21	122.27	65.01	+0.99	ABNB ahead
2026-09-18	121.82	64.75	+1.00	ABNB ahead
2026-09-17	121.60	65.41	+0.95	ABNB ahead
2026-09-16	122.76	65.12	+1.03	ABNB ahead
2026-09-15	123.36	66.48	+0.96	ABNB ahead
2026-09-14	125.06	66.75	+1.01	ABNB ahead
2026-09-11	124.73	66.37	+1.03	ABNB ahead
2026-09-10	122.87	65.86	+1.01	ABNB ahead
2026-09-09	124.32	64.46	+1.17	ABNB ahead
2026-09-08	127.91	65.70	+1.22	ABNB ahead
2026-09-04	133.34	67.90	+1.27	ABNB ahead
2026-09-03	135.76	70.20	+1.21	ABNB ahead
2026-09-02	134.31	67.54	+1.35	ABNB ahead
2026-09-01	133.78	64.74	+1.53	ABNB ahead
2026-08-31	134.28	65.07	+1.54	ABNB ahead
2026-08-28	138.83	66.30	+1.62	ABNB ahead
2026-08-27	135.14	75.95	+0.88	ABNB ahead
2026-08-26	137.83	76.37	+0.96	ABNB ahead
2026-08-25	139.61	76.93	+0.99	ABNB ahead
2026-08-24	139.40	76.20	+1.03	ABNB ahead
2026-08-21	137.27	76.04	+0.98	ABNB ahead
2026-08-20	135.58	76.97	+0.87	ABNB ahead
2026-08-19	136.60	75.67	+0.99	ABNB ahead
2026-08-18	134.30	74.66	+0.99	ABNB ahead
2026-08-17	131.40	74.71	+0.89	ABNB ahead
2026-08-14	134.89	76.18	+0.93	ABNB ahead
2026-08-13	135.68	74.86	+1.04	ABNB ahead
2026-08-12	131.99	73.14	+1.03	ABNB ahead
2026-08-11	135.57	72.89	+1.17	ABNB ahead
2026-08-10	135.36	72.98	+1.17	ABNB ahead
2026-08-07	130.50	72.98	+1.01	ABNB ahead
2026-08-06	111.13	73.86	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2026-08-05	111.76	71.57	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-08-04	109.87	72.33	+0.30	near the usual relationship
2026-08-03	110.40	71.50	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-07-31	111.04	70.68	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-07-30	111.45	71.23	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-07-29	112.14	72.09	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-07-28	112.21	72.05	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-07-27	107.63	69.27	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-07-24	103.41	69.37	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2026-07-23	100.82	69.19	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2026-07-22	102.64	68.58	+0.28	near the usual relationship
2026-07-21	105.61	69.00	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-07-20	106.22	70.20	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2026-07-17	106.98	69.88	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2026-07-16	108.32	70.09	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2026-07-15	108.74	68.59	+0.55	ABNB ahead
2026-07-14	107.39	58.52	+1.20	ABNB ahead
2026-07-13	107.24	58.87	+1.17	ABNB ahead
2026-07-10	108.92	57.23	+1.38	ABNB ahead
2026-07-09	107.65	55.99	+1.43	ABNB ahead
2026-07-08	104.76	55.02	+1.40	ABNB ahead
2026-07-07	109.05	56.40	+1.48	ABNB ahead
2026-07-06	108.21	55.71	+1.52	ABNB ahead
2026-07-02	109.15	56.18	+1.53	ABNB ahead
2026-07-01	107.96	54.45	+1.64	ABNB ahead
2026-06-30	104.87	53.35	+1.61	ABNB ahead
2026-06-29	107.86	54.83	+1.63	ABNB ahead
2026-06-26	106.68	54.72	+1.61	ABNB ahead
2026-06-25	103.98	52.36	+1.71	ABNB ahead
2026-06-24	105.83	52.48	+1.79	ABNB ahead
2026-06-23	101.76	51.52	+1.72	ABNB ahead
2026-06-22	102.01	52.31	+1.68	ABNB ahead
2026-06-18	104.37	52.52	+1.78	ABNB ahead
2026-06-17	103.00	51.99	+1.79	ABNB ahead
2026-06-16	103.48	53.93	+1.66	ABNB ahead
2026-06-15	101.84	52.50	+1.73	ABNB ahead
2026-06-12	96.94	51.31	+1.62	ABNB ahead
2026-06-11	95.91	50.95	+1.62	ABNB ahead
2026-06-10	94.61	50.28	+1.63	ABNB ahead
2026-06-09	96.26	51.22	+1.64	ABNB ahead
2026-06-08	98.52	50.98	+1.79	ABNB ahead
2026-06-05	97.87	51.01	+1.78	ABNB ahead
2026-06-04	98.00	52.82	+1.64	ABNB ahead
2026-06-03	97.90	52.64	+1.66	ABNB ahead
2026-06-02	98.46	55.02	+1.49	ABNB ahead
2026-06-01	101.04	55.83	+1.56	ABNB ahead
2026-05-29	97.70	55.29	+1.46	ABNB ahead
2026-05-28	98.57	54.93	+1.55	ABNB ahead
2026-05-27	96.81	54.06	+1.55	ABNB ahead
2026-05-26	97.24	54.56	+1.55	ABNB ahead
2026-05-22	97.00	54.65	+1.54	ABNB ahead
2026-05-21	98.39	54.73	+1.62	ABNB ahead
2026-05-20	99.34	54.82	+1.67	ABNB ahead
2026-05-19	96.12	54.15	+1.59	ABNB ahead
2026-05-18	98.42	54.84	+1.66	ABNB ahead
2026-05-15	97.36	54.87	+1.62	ABNB ahead
2026-05-14	97.96	55.65	+1.60	ABNB ahead
2026-05-13	97.45	55.88	+1.56	ABNB ahead
2026-05-12	99.29	56.14	+1.65	ABNB ahead
2026-05-11	100.44	55.68	+1.77	ABNB ahead
2026-05-08	103.69	56.05	+1.92	ABNB ahead
2026-05-07	102.94	57.10	+1.80	ABNB ahead
2026-05-06	102.51	57.17	+1.80	ABNB ahead
2026-05-05	102.40	57.44	+1.79	ABNB ahead
2026-05-04	101.77	62.26	+1.35	ABNB ahead
2026-05-01	103.82	62.32	+1.46	ABNB ahead
2026-04-30	102.87	61.95	+1.46	ABNB ahead
2026-04-29	102.81	62.94	+1.39	ABNB ahead
2026-04-28	101.90	61.33	+1.49	ABNB ahead
2026-04-27	103.38	61.49	+1.57	ABNB ahead
2026-04-24	104.67	62.37	+1.57	ABNB ahead
2026-04-23	103.97	61.47	+1.63	ABNB ahead
2026-04-22	105.67	63.28	+1.58	ABNB ahead
2026-04-21	104.54	62.86	+1.57	ABNB ahead
2026-04-20	105.23	63.58	+1.56	ABNB ahead
2026-04-17	103.74	62.77	+1.56	ABNB ahead
2026-04-16	101.00	61.54	+1.54	ABNB ahead
2026-04-15	100.78	61.24	+1.57	ABNB ahead
2026-04-14	98.09	59.27	+1.62	ABNB ahead
2026-04-13	95.51	58.70	+1.54	ABNB ahead
2026-04-10	94.51	55.89	+1.77	ABNB ahead
2026-04-09	94.66	56.81	+1.71	ABNB ahead
2026-04-08	96.30	56.65	+1.84	ABNB ahead
2026-04-07	91.59	55.44	+1.70	ABNB ahead
2026-04-06	92.94	56.19	+1.72	ABNB ahead
2026-04-02	91.57	56.02	+1.67	ABNB ahead
2026-04-01	91.75	55.14	+1.79	ABNB ahead
2026-03-31	92.55	55.88	+1.78	ABNB ahead
2026-03-30	90.22	55.19	+1.73	ABNB ahead
2026-03-27	90.05	53.85	+1.88	ABNB ahead
2026-03-26	96.05	55.84	+2.07	ABNB ahead
2026-03-25	96.60	55.41	+2.18	ABNB ahead
2026-03-24	95.27	54.62	+2.21	ABNB ahead
2026-03-23	97.17	56.20	+2.19	ABNB ahead
2026-03-20	94.19	54.37	+2.23	ABNB ahead
2026-03-19	95.85	54.60	+2.35	ABNB ahead
2026-03-18	96.10	55.09	+2.34	ABNB ahead
2026-03-17	96.70	56.99	+2.20	ABNB ahead
2026-03-16	94.04	56.12	+2.15	ABNB ahead
2026-03-13	92.56	55.47	+2.16	ABNB ahead
2026-03-12	93.59	54.81	+2.34	ABNB ahead
2026-03-11	97.76	56.30	+2.48	ABNB ahead
2026-03-10	97.06	55.62	+2.56	ABNB ahead
2026-03-09	98.23	57.03	+2.51	ABNB ahead
2026-03-06	97.64	58.03	+2.39	ABNB ahead
2026-03-05	99.56	58.86	+2.47	ABNB ahead
2026-03-04	99.33	57.76	+2.62	ABNB ahead
2026-03-03	97.50	57.30	+2.59	ABNB ahead
2026-03-02	97.66	56.38	+2.77	ABNB ahead
2026-02-27	99.02	57.09	+2.83	ABNB ahead
2026-02-26	100.38	56.25	+3.11	ABNB ahead
2026-02-25	96.75	58.46	+2.60	ABNB ahead
2026-02-24	92.09	58.09	+2.32	ABNB ahead
2026-02-23	90.11	54.42	+2.69	ABNB ahead
2026-02-20	93.73	51.46	+3.51	ABNB ahead
2026-02-19	92.20	51.56	+3.46	ABNB ahead
2026-02-18	91.07	51.21	+3.50	ABNB ahead
2026-02-17	91.04	50.42	+3.74	ABNB ahead
2026-02-13	88.93	49.78	+3.77	ABNB ahead
2026-02-12	84.98	48.28	+3.76	ABNB ahead
2026-02-11	87.61	49.99	+3.84	ABNB ahead
2026-02-10	88.18	51.26	+3.78	ABNB ahead
2026-02-09	88.90	50.84	+4.07	ABNB ahead
2026-02-06	89.54	49.94	+4.48	ABNB ahead
2026-02-05	88.88	49.30	+4.74	ABNB ahead
2026-02-04	91.32	50.69	+4.91	ABNB ahead
2026-02-03	89.47	51.52	+4.68	ABNB ahead
2026-02-02	96.23	64.65	+3.04	ABNB ahead
2026-01-30	94.81	65.10	+2.83	ABNB ahead
2026-01-29	96.57	65.62	+2.97	ABNB ahead
2026-01-28	96.41	66.81	+2.77	ABNB ahead
2026-01-27	96.90	68.58	+2.55	ABNB ahead
2026-01-26	97.76	69.93	+2.45	ABNB ahead
2026-01-23	96.85	69.95	+2.36	ABNB ahead
2026-01-22	98.06	70.61	+2.41	ABNB ahead
2026-01-21	97.90	69.05	+2.66	ABNB ahead
2026-01-20	95.81	68.05	+2.60	ABNB ahead
2026-01-16	95.76	70.29	+2.26	ABNB ahead
2026-01-15	97.18	70.10	+2.46	ABNB ahead
2026-01-14	97.32	71.24	+2.33	ABNB ahead
2026-01-13	102.65	69.88	+3.17	ABNB ahead
2026-01-12	101.51	70.78	+2.95	ABNB ahead
2026-01-09	102.07	71.24	+2.98	ABNB ahead
2026-01-08	101.62	71.99	+2.85	ABNB ahead
2026-01-07	100.43	72.29	+2.71	ABNB ahead
2026-01-06	101.15	73.89	+2.57	ABNB ahead
2026-01-05	99.57	73.25	+2.52	ABNB ahead
2026-01-02	97.48	71.83	+2.54	ABNB ahead
2025-12-31	99.47	72.13	+2.76	ABNB ahead
2025-12-30	100.34	73.02	+2.75	ABNB ahead
2025-12-29	100.12	73.50	+2.69	ABNB ahead
2025-12-26	100.27	74.09	+2.65	ABNB ahead
2025-12-24	100.24	74.18	+2.67	ABNB ahead
2025-12-23	100.03	73.40	+2.80	ABNB ahead
2025-12-22	100.37	73.96	+2.78	ABNB ahead
2025-12-19	99.14	73.89	+2.67	ABNB ahead
2025-12-18	98.20	73.44	+2.65	ABNB ahead
2025-12-17	98.04	74.35	+2.50	ABNB ahead
2025-12-16	96.75	75.77	+2.14	ABNB ahead
2025-12-15	96.60	75.04	+2.26	ABNB ahead
2025-12-12	94.09	76.18	+1.78	ABNB ahead
2025-12-11	93.81	76.22	+1.75	ABNB ahead
2025-12-10	93.49	75.56	+1.83	ABNB ahead
2025-12-09	91.89	75.09	+1.71	ABNB ahead
2025-12-08	89.42	75.51	+1.33	ABNB ahead
2025-12-05	91.11	76.95	+1.34	ABNB ahead
2025-12-04	88.55	76.27	+1.11	ABNB ahead
2025-12-03	88.04	75.66	+1.15	ABNB ahead
2025-12-02	86.84	77.71	+0.67	ABNB ahead
2025-12-01	87.06	77.32	+0.77	ABNB ahead
2025-11-28	85.74	77.45	+0.57	ABNB ahead
2025-11-26	85.56	76.39	+0.72	ABNB ahead
2025-11-25	86.89	75.64	+1.02	ABNB ahead
2025-11-24	83.85	74.82	+0.74	ABNB ahead
2025-11-21	83.74	74.83	+0.73	ABNB ahead
2025-11-20	81.74	71.79	+0.94	ABNB ahead
2025-11-19	83.87	74.26	+0.85	ABNB ahead
2025-11-18	84.59	74.99	+0.84	ABNB ahead
2025-11-17	86.19	76.46	+0.84	ABNB ahead
2025-11-14	89.42	77.60	+1.10	ABNB ahead
2025-11-13	88.82	80.71	+0.58	ABNB ahead
2025-11-12	89.18	83.02	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-11-11	89.80	83.27	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-11-10	88.09	81.85	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-11-07	88.59	81.81	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-11-06	88.33	81.86	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-11-05	89.78	84.09	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-11-04	89.67	81.64	+0.57	ABNB ahead
2025-11-03	92.93	84.43	+0.60	ABNB ahead
2025-10-31	92.74	85.58	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-10-30	92.59	83.93	+0.64	ABNB ahead
2025-10-29	92.69	86.09	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-10-28	93.81	90.21	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-10-27	94.59	86.79	+0.51	ABNB ahead
2025-10-24	93.80	86.20	+0.50	ABNB ahead
2025-10-23	93.33	86.06	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-10-22	93.44	84.10	+0.74	ABNB ahead
2025-10-21	94.22	86.55	+0.51	ABNB ahead
2025-10-20	93.23	85.50	+0.54	ABNB ahead
2025-10-17	92.28	83.28	+0.72	ABNB ahead
2025-10-16	90.06	81.60	+0.68	ABNB ahead
2025-10-15	91.07	83.99	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-10-14	90.06	85.43	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-10-13	87.11	85.08	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-10-10	86.62	86.29	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-10-09	88.05	93.59	-1.13	PYPL ahead
2025-10-08	87.94	94.06	-1.20	PYPL ahead
2025-10-07	87.83	92.18	-0.99	PYPL ahead
2025-10-06	88.20	88.08	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-10-03	88.11	85.56	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-10-02	89.04	85.16	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-10-01	89.64	82.36	+0.54	ABNB ahead
2025-09-30	88.98	82.85	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-09-29	90.08	86.09	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-09-26	90.66	83.15	+0.57	ABNB ahead
2025-09-25	89.23	82.46	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-09-24	90.20	83.84	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-09-23	90.51	83.16	+0.56	ABNB ahead
2025-09-22	91.93	83.62	+0.68	ABNB ahead
2025-09-19	93.10	84.28	+0.74	ABNB ahead
2025-09-18	91.95	84.66	+0.56	ABNB ahead
2025-09-17	90.29	84.78	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-09-16	89.16	82.59	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-09-15	88.22	82.91	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-09-12	89.81	82.64	+0.58	ABNB ahead
2025-09-11	90.18	83.11	+0.56	ABNB ahead
2025-09-10	90.44	81.10	+0.88	ABNB ahead
2025-09-09	90.74	83.62	+0.57	ABNB ahead
2025-09-08	91.33	84.51	+0.53	ABNB ahead
2025-09-05	90.74	84.33	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-09-04	91.88	84.58	+0.60	ABNB ahead
2025-09-03	91.54	86.04	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-09-02	93.51	85.56	+0.68	ABNB ahead
2025-08-29	95.66	86.72	+0.79	ABNB ahead
2025-08-28	95.61	86.56	+0.81	ABNB ahead
2025-08-27	95.16	86.05	+0.83	ABNB ahead
2025-08-26	92.99	86.71	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-08-25	93.92	85.84	+0.72	ABNB ahead
2025-08-22	95.21	86.36	+0.81	ABNB ahead
2025-08-21	92.66	83.46	+0.90	ABNB ahead
2025-08-20	91.58	84.11	+0.68	ABNB ahead
2025-08-19	92.34	85.31	+0.62	ABNB ahead
2025-08-18	91.97	85.90	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-08-15	91.68	85.53	+0.51	ABNB ahead
2025-08-14	91.34	85.72	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-08-13	91.28	87.26	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-08-12	89.12	83.98	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-08-11	86.70	82.88	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-08-08	88.69	83.58	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-08-07	87.97	84.28	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-08-06	95.64	85.77	+0.92	ABNB ahead
2025-08-05	95.24	83.80	+1.12	ABNB ahead
2025-08-04	95.98	84.03	+1.16	ABNB ahead
2025-08-01	93.82	82.91	+1.04	ABNB ahead
2025-07-31	97.04	84.95	+1.11	ABNB ahead
2025-07-30	98.75	86.13	+1.12	ABNB ahead
2025-07-29	100.29	88.28	+0.99	ABNB ahead
2025-07-28	104.18	96.64	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-07-25	103.56	96.34	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-07-24	103.79	96.15	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-07-23	102.48	94.71	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-07-22	102.18	93.90	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-07-21	101.19	92.44	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-07-18	102.12	91.64	+0.61	ABNB ahead
2025-07-17	102.09	91.25	+0.63	ABNB ahead
2025-07-16	100.19	90.15	+0.55	ABNB ahead
2025-07-15	100.07	90.14	+0.53	ABNB ahead
2025-07-14	101.55	91.29	+0.52	ABNB ahead
2025-07-11	99.19	88.16	+0.60	ABNB ahead
2025-07-10	100.40	93.53	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-07-09	100.29	92.45	+0.27	near the usual relationship
2025-07-08	100.40	92.70	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-07-07	100.40	94.12	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-07-03	100.03	94.63	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-07-02	99.22	94.28	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-07-01	99.24	93.02	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-06-30	96.99	91.82	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-06-27	98.59	90.98	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-06-26	98.00	90.40	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-06-25	95.03	90.28	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-06-24	96.85	90.91	+0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-06-23	95.66	88.97	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-06-20	96.54	86.55	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-06-18	96.86	84.72	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-06-17	97.74	87.31	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-06-16	100.56	89.28	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-06-13	99.33	87.51	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-06-12	101.73	92.43	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-06-11	101.18	92.18	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-06-10	101.55	92.36	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-06-09	101.88	90.87	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-06-06	103.07	90.72	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-06-05	100.62	89.54	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-06-04	97.85	89.94	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-06-03	97.40	88.13	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-06-02	94.99	87.63	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-05-30	94.54	86.83	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-05-29	94.07	87.63	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-05-28	94.30	88.26	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-05-27	94.83	88.31	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-05-23	92.87	86.30	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-05-22	93.55	88.28	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-05-21	93.46	88.52	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-05-20	96.83	89.71	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-05-19	100.11	89.35	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-05-16	101.14	89.18	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-05-15	100.25	88.42	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-05-14	100.73	89.79	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-05-13	101.17	89.31	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-05-12	98.36	89.34	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-05-09	93.10	86.81	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-05-08	92.63	87.08	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-05-07	90.23	84.87	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-05-06	89.17	84.07	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-05-05	91.53	84.68	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-05-02	91.80	83.07	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-05-01	90.88	80.81	+0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-04-30	89.35	81.34	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-04-29	91.97	81.94	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-04-28	90.36	80.22	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-04-25	89.78	80.73	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-04-24	89.20	80.02	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-04-23	86.68	77.17	+0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-04-22	84.21	75.88	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-04-21	81.80	74.48	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-04-17	82.59	75.36	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-04-16	82.55	74.43	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-04-15	84.02	76.60	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-04-14	82.98	76.93	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-04-11	83.94	77.33	-0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-04-10	83.48	74.82	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-04-09	88.91	79.01	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-04-08	77.46	70.93	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-04-07	77.90	72.31	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-04-04	78.17	72.12	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-04-03	83.53	76.24	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-04-02	90.00	82.96	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-04-01	88.81	81.67	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-03-31	87.55	80.62	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-03-28	88.45	80.49	-0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-03-27	92.09	85.08	-0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-03-26	94.28	86.45	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-03-25	95.19	87.55	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-03-24	95.14	87.68	-0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-03-21	94.39	86.72	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-03-20	92.45	86.08	-0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-03-19	92.34	86.48	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-03-18	91.29	85.10	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-03-17	93.03	86.05	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2025-03-14	90.04	85.19	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-03-13	87.49	82.67	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-03-12	92.74	84.78	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-03-11	91.93	83.99	-0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-03-10	96.85	84.21	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-03-07	98.49	87.08	-0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-03-06	98.77	84.11	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-03-05	104.49	85.87	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-03-04	103.64	83.37	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-03-03	103.32	86.17	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-02-28	101.77	87.78	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2025-02-27	102.20	87.39	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-02-26	105.56	89.02	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-02-25	103.74	91.51	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-02-24	106.13	92.97	-0.09	near the usual relationship
2025-02-21	107.05	92.60	-0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-02-20	113.82	95.91	+0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-02-19	115.78	96.81	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-02-18	117.70	97.13	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-02-14	118.30	96.33	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-02-13	103.36	94.63	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-02-12	102.98	94.23	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-02-11	98.59	94.16	-0.52	PYPL ahead
2025-02-10	99.11	96.66	-0.62	PYPL ahead
2025-02-07	98.92	95.52	-0.58	PYPL ahead
2025-02-06	97.16	97.07	-0.74	PYPL ahead
2025-02-05	94.98	97.85	-0.89	PYPL ahead
2025-02-04	95.82	96.03	-0.77	PYPL ahead
2025-02-03	95.11	110.59	-1.45	PYPL ahead
2025-01-31	96.13	109.44	-1.37	PYPL ahead
2025-01-30	96.58	110.66	-1.41	PYPL ahead
2025-01-29	97.16	109.66	-1.36	PYPL ahead
2025-01-28	96.04	108.96	-1.39	PYPL ahead
2025-01-27	94.51	111.49	-1.59	PYPL ahead
2025-01-24	93.14	110.09	-1.61	PYPL ahead
2025-01-23	97.65	110.86	-1.44	PYPL ahead
2025-01-22	97.11	111.01	-1.48	PYPL ahead
2025-01-21	97.52	110.91	-1.47	PYPL ahead
2025-01-17	99.03	113.43	-1.52	PYPL ahead
2025-01-16	96.86	109.86	-1.49	PYPL ahead
2025-01-15	97.12	110.75	-1.53	PYPL ahead
2025-01-14	93.51	107.71	-1.59	PYPL ahead
2025-01-13	94.43	103.77	-1.38	PYPL ahead
2025-01-10	95.00	102.99	-1.32	PYPL ahead
2025-01-08	95.86	108.65	-1.55	PYPL ahead
2025-01-07	96.22	108.69	-1.55	PYPL ahead
2025-01-06	99.08	110.61	-1.51	PYPL ahead
2025-01-03	99.46	108.23	-1.39	PYPL ahead
2025-01-02	96.36	106.47	-1.48	PYPL ahead
2024-12-31	96.31	105.45	-1.45	PYPL ahead
2024-12-30	96.60	105.55	-1.45	PYPL ahead
2024-12-27	97.75	107.31	-1.49	PYPL ahead
2024-12-26	99.17	108.90	-1.50	PYPL ahead
2024-12-24	98.93	109.03	-1.54	PYPL ahead
2024-12-23	98.59	107.36	-1.49	PYPL ahead
2024-12-20	98.36	107.65	-1.53	PYPL ahead
2024-12-19	94.80	107.22	-1.71	PYPL ahead
2024-12-18	93.47	105.57	-1.72	PYPL ahead
2024-12-17	96.91	112.26	-1.87	PYPL ahead
2024-12-16	96.89	112.80	-1.92	PYPL ahead
2024-12-13	95.97	112.45	-1.98	PYPL ahead
2024-12-12	100.75	110.45	-1.65	PYPL ahead
2024-12-11	101.75	112.12	-1.69	PYPL ahead
2024-12-10	101.36	109.66	-1.61	PYPL ahead
2024-12-09	100.60	111.19	-1.74	PYPL ahead
2024-12-06	100.34	111.05	-1.77	PYPL ahead
2024-12-05	99.90	110.01	-1.76	PYPL ahead
2024-12-04	101.92	110.37	-1.69	PYPL ahead
2024-12-03	100.74	105.19	-1.51	PYPL ahead
2024-12-02	100.76	106.91	-1.61	PYPL ahead
2024-11-29	99.75	107.20	-1.69	PYPL ahead
2024-11-27	101.34	106.96	-1.61	PYPL ahead
2024-11-26	102.36	107.41	-1.59	PYPL ahead
2024-11-25	103.28	108.44	-1.61	PYPL ahead
2024-11-22	100.65	107.20	-1.71	PYPL ahead
2024-11-21	97.66	104.79	-1.77	PYPL ahead
2024-11-20	99.12	104.69	-1.70	PYPL ahead
2024-11-19	96.33	103.89	-1.84	PYPL ahead
2024-11-18	96.88	104.61	-1.86	PYPL ahead
2024-11-15	97.11	106.04	-1.95	PYPL ahead
2024-11-14	98.61	105.99	-1.88	PYPL ahead
2024-11-13	97.30	107.87	-2.09	PYPL ahead
2024-11-12	97.62	106.75	-2.03	PYPL ahead
2024-11-11	100.70	107.41	-1.90	PYPL ahead
2024-11-08	98.65	102.56	-1.77	PYPL ahead
2024-11-07	108.00	100.51	-1.11	PYPL ahead
2024-11-06	103.27	100.58	-1.40	PYPL ahead
2024-11-05	101.00	97.91	-1.38	PYPL ahead
2024-11-04	100.31	96.53	-1.34	PYPL ahead
2024-11-01	100.01	95.44	-1.30	PYPL ahead
2024-10-31	98.78	97.97	-1.55	PYPL ahead
2024-10-30	100.04	96.64	-1.40	PYPL ahead
2024-10-29	100.97	99.18	-1.52	PYPL ahead
2024-10-28	99.51	103.27	-1.88	PYPL ahead
2024-10-25	98.63	100.94	-1.81	PYPL ahead
2024-10-24	97.29	100.56	-1.89	PYPL ahead
2024-10-23	96.68	99.86	-1.91	PYPL ahead
2024-10-22	99.37	99.96	-1.76	PYPL ahead
2024-10-21	100.54	99.53	-1.68	PYPL ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	-1.76	PYPL ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Feb 14, 2025 (ABNB +14.4%, PYPL +1.8%); Feb 3, 2026 (ABNB -7.0%, PYPL -20.3%); Feb 23, 2026 (ABNB -3.9%, PYPL +5.8%); Jul 15, 2026 (ABNB +1.3%, PYPL +17.2%); Aug 7, 2026 (ABNB +17.4%, PYPL -1.2%); Aug 28, 2026 (ABNB +2.7%, PYPL -12.7%). Upcoming earnings: PYPL Oct 27, 2026 (pre-market); ABNB Nov 5, 2026 (after-hours).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

ABNB and PYPL at a glance

ABNB Airbnb Inc.

Listing: Nasdaq · SEC CIK 1559720
Industry: Diversified Commercial Services · SIC 7340 Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings
Market value: $105.1B
Price history: 1,473 daily closes, Dec 10, 2020 to Oct 22, 2026

PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc.

Listing: Nasdaq · SEC CIK 1633917
Industry: Diversified Commercial Services · SIC 7389 Services-Business Services, NEC
Market value: $48.3B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
ABNB / APG	Watchlist	ABNB by 1.96 sd	SIC 7340 Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings
ABNB / ROL	Watchlist	ABNB by 1.61 sd	SIC 7340 Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings
ABNB / URI	Watchlist	ABNB by 0.44 sd	Diversified Commercial Services
URI / PYPL	Watchlist	URI by 0.41 sd	Diversified Commercial Services

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.