Trucking Freight/Courier Services

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. vs United Parcel Service Inc.

WatchlistODFL / UPSPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($83B vs $39B) in Nasdaq's "Trucking Freight/Courier Services" industry; SEC SIC 4210 / 4213 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

  • Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.49 (needs >= 0.60)
  • Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.45 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Business leadership

UPS is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

YearODFLUPSLarger
2025$5.5B$88.7BUPS
2024$5.8B$91.1BUPS
2023$5.9B$91.0BUPS
2022$6.3B$100.3BUPS
2021$5.3B$97.3BUPS
2020$4.0B$84.6BUPS

UPS led in every year with figures for both. Market value: ODFL $38.7B, UPS $82.9B.

Stock leadership

Neither is clearly ahead

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

The gap is 0.19 standard deviations, close to the usual relationship. 1 lead switch in the last year.

Price change3 mo6 mo12 mo
ODFL-18.5%-14.8%+31.5%
UPS-11.6%-5.8%+15.3%
Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass
Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Fail
Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.49 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.45 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass
Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 42.68 (needs <= 63)
Data
Both stocks current
The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. UPS United Parcel Service Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
6080100120Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026ODFL 95UPS 75
Spread z-score: ODFL relative to UPS, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: ODFL ahead; below 0: UPS ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
-4stop-2idea0+2idea+4stopOct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026
Data table (504 sessions)
DateODFL indexUPS indexzAhead
2026-10-2295.1674.69+0.19near the usual relationship
2026-10-2194.6773.25+0.30near the usual relationship
2026-10-2094.3872.48+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-10-1993.6471.70+0.40near the usual relationship
2026-10-1694.0871.71+0.44near the usual relationship
2026-10-1594.6671.97+0.46near the usual relationship
2026-10-1492.4070.46+0.44near the usual relationship
2026-10-1391.8069.73+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-10-1291.1670.14+0.38near the usual relationship
2026-10-0991.1969.57+0.45near the usual relationship
2026-10-0891.0369.25+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-10-0788.0167.90+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-10-0689.2268.50+0.42near the usual relationship
2026-10-0589.8968.52+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-10-0290.4568.43+0.54ODFL ahead
2026-10-0189.2669.07+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-09-3087.1268.74+0.22near the usual relationship
2026-09-2988.9369.10+0.34near the usual relationship
2026-09-2888.6369.34+0.29near the usual relationship
2026-09-2586.8569.12+0.16near the usual relationship
2026-09-2487.6767.72+0.40near the usual relationship
2026-09-2389.0670.49+0.21near the usual relationship
2026-09-2288.8670.53+0.20near the usual relationship
2026-09-2187.8869.70+0.20near the usual relationship
2026-09-1886.7072.88-0.24near the usual relationship
2026-09-1787.7573.69-0.23near the usual relationship
2026-09-1687.3872.66-0.16near the usual relationship
2026-09-1590.6975.30-0.14near the usual relationship
2026-09-1491.1675.38-0.11near the usual relationship
2026-09-1190.1073.77-0.04near the usual relationship
2026-09-1090.4873.55+0.02near the usual relationship
2026-09-0991.1972.99+0.14near the usual relationship
2026-09-0893.7273.92+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-09-0493.1575.25+0.07near the usual relationship
2026-09-0393.0976.14-0.02near the usual relationship
2026-09-0294.0275.78+0.09near the usual relationship
2026-09-0193.7275.52+0.09near the usual relationship
2026-08-31100.2176.68+0.49near the usual relationship
2026-08-2899.5477.49+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-08-27100.2677.75+0.40near the usual relationship
2026-08-2699.9477.72+0.38near the usual relationship
2026-08-2599.4077.35+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-08-24100.9775.57+0.68ODFL ahead
2026-08-21103.4775.05+0.92ODFL ahead
2026-08-20102.5075.47+0.81ODFL ahead
2026-08-19102.7875.67+0.82ODFL ahead
2026-08-18104.2474.99+1.01ODFL ahead
2026-08-17106.2275.05+1.15ODFL ahead
2026-08-14105.7376.88+0.94ODFL ahead
2026-08-13108.1177.64+1.04ODFL ahead
2026-08-12106.5276.44+1.05ODFL ahead
2026-08-11104.9676.83+0.91ODFL ahead
2026-08-10106.5277.04+1.01ODFL ahead
2026-08-07108.4376.88+1.17ODFL ahead
2026-08-06105.9575.92+1.10ODFL ahead
2026-08-05107.9779.23+0.92ODFL ahead
2026-08-04109.9180.27+0.96ODFL ahead
2026-08-03106.0078.62+0.84ODFL ahead
2026-07-31106.3176.67+1.07ODFL ahead
2026-07-30106.4877.44+1.01ODFL ahead
2026-07-29111.6576.92+1.45ODFL ahead
2026-07-28113.4077.64+1.52ODFL ahead
2026-07-27113.6583.09+1.00ODFL ahead
2026-07-24116.7684.45+1.10ODFL ahead
2026-07-23115.6283.94+1.08ODFL ahead
2026-07-22116.6785.22+1.03ODFL ahead
2026-07-21117.6785.59+1.08ODFL ahead
2026-07-20116.1583.24+1.21ODFL ahead
2026-07-17117.1986.60+0.97ODFL ahead
2026-07-16118.8586.21+1.13ODFL ahead
2026-07-15112.8783.09+1.01ODFL ahead
2026-07-14114.5783.62+1.09ODFL ahead
2026-07-13116.7283.05+1.31ODFL ahead
2026-07-10114.0782.74+1.16ODFL ahead
2026-07-09113.1981.47+1.23ODFL ahead
2026-07-08109.3880.88+1.02ODFL ahead
2026-07-07108.0082.37+0.78ODFL ahead
2026-07-06108.4780.94+0.96ODFL ahead
2026-07-02109.0881.41+0.97ODFL ahead
2026-07-01109.2380.59+1.07ODFL ahead
2026-06-30108.5579.08+1.18ODFL ahead
2026-06-29110.1079.46+1.27ODFL ahead
2026-06-26109.6579.56+1.24ODFL ahead
2026-06-25110.3180.42+1.21ODFL ahead
2026-06-24109.7778.08+1.42ODFL ahead
2026-06-23109.0477.86+1.40ODFL ahead
2026-06-22110.0178.89+1.38ODFL ahead
2026-06-18110.7777.14+1.64ODFL ahead
2026-06-17109.4377.34+1.53ODFL ahead
2026-06-16116.0880.94+1.66ODFL ahead
2026-06-15118.9880.06+1.98ODFL ahead
2026-06-12123.1679.53+2.37ODFL ahead
2026-06-11124.1779.93+2.43ODFL ahead
2026-06-10118.2575.97+2.49ODFL ahead
2026-06-09124.6579.36+2.62ODFL ahead
2026-06-08123.7979.23+2.62ODFL ahead
2026-06-05121.5679.85+2.42ODFL ahead
2026-06-04123.0481.09+2.43ODFL ahead
2026-06-03118.3079.95+2.23ODFL ahead
2026-06-02114.8080.14+1.95ODFL ahead
2026-06-01114.5380.20+1.94ODFL ahead
2026-05-29112.8378.49+2.03ODFL ahead
2026-05-28110.6878.47+1.87ODFL ahead
2026-05-27109.9876.86+2.03ODFL ahead
2026-05-26108.5575.02+2.17ODFL ahead
2026-05-22105.4874.32+2.01ODFL ahead
2026-05-21104.0872.28+2.18ODFL ahead
2026-05-20105.1672.74+2.25ODFL ahead
2026-05-19102.4771.24+2.22ODFL ahead
2026-05-18102.3070.28+2.38ODFL ahead
2026-05-15101.7972.78+2.00ODFL ahead
2026-05-1499.6372.40+1.85ODFL ahead
2026-05-1394.8172.43+1.34ODFL ahead
2026-05-1295.7872.42+1.46ODFL ahead
2026-05-1197.7873.57+1.52ODFL ahead
2026-05-0899.3974.14+1.63ODFL ahead
2026-05-0799.2673.64+1.70ODFL ahead
2026-05-06100.5473.49+1.88ODFL ahead
2026-05-0598.2772.15+1.86ODFL ahead
2026-05-0496.3170.85+1.85ODFL ahead
2026-05-01103.1479.14+1.41ODFL ahead
2026-04-30106.4680.04+1.65ODFL ahead
2026-04-29104.9278.43+1.73ODFL ahead
2026-04-28111.1476.47+2.68ODFL ahead
2026-04-27110.5279.63+2.20ODFL ahead
2026-04-24110.2478.73+2.33ODFL ahead
2026-04-23111.6579.25+2.44ODFL ahead
2026-04-22110.2477.47+2.60ODFL ahead
2026-04-21112.4778.21+2.77ODFL ahead
2026-04-20111.9578.80+2.68ODFL ahead
2026-04-17109.1378.31+2.49ODFL ahead
2026-04-16107.0377.29+2.46ODFL ahead
2026-04-15102.8376.19+2.17ODFL ahead
2026-04-14105.4575.94+2.56ODFL ahead
2026-04-13104.0575.05+2.59ODFL ahead
2026-04-10104.4274.82+2.72ODFL ahead
2026-04-09104.9974.77+2.86ODFL ahead
2026-04-08104.0073.90+2.95ODFL ahead
2026-04-0799.6971.78+2.83ODFL ahead
2026-04-06101.3271.48+3.17ODFL ahead
2026-04-0299.2372.23+2.80ODFL ahead
2026-04-01100.0572.03+3.01ODFL ahead
2026-03-3197.9372.38+2.69ODFL ahead
2026-03-3095.0969.85+2.83ODFL ahead
2026-03-2794.3969.74+2.80ODFL ahead
2026-03-2694.1871.73+2.40ODFL ahead
2026-03-2594.7472.37+2.38ODFL ahead
2026-03-2492.7372.42+2.07ODFL ahead
2026-03-2394.0771.85+2.42ODFL ahead
2026-03-2092.1770.52+2.41ODFL ahead
2026-03-1991.3971.04+2.19ODFL ahead
2026-03-1891.5071.24+2.18ODFL ahead
2026-03-1792.4371.93+2.21ODFL ahead
2026-03-1691.4371.65+2.12ODFL ahead
2026-03-1390.5871.51+2.03ODFL ahead
2026-03-1288.3272.02+1.57ODFL ahead
2026-03-1194.6174.16+2.18ODFL ahead
2026-03-1097.7374.24+2.68ODFL ahead
2026-03-0998.8473.52+3.06ODFL ahead
2026-03-0697.2175.30+2.48ODFL ahead
2026-03-05105.5876.56+3.59ODFL ahead
2026-03-04108.3481.29+3.11ODFL ahead
2026-03-03104.2183.30+2.14ODFL ahead
2026-03-02104.1184.18+1.98ODFL ahead
2026-02-27101.7685.31+1.41ODFL ahead
2026-02-2699.4185.80+0.95ODFL ahead
2026-02-2596.0783.76+0.80ODFL ahead
2026-02-2498.5884.87+1.01ODFL ahead
2026-02-2397.1684.62+0.82ODFL ahead
2026-02-20100.9385.88+1.19ODFL ahead
2026-02-1997.8185.00+0.84ODFL ahead
2026-02-1897.1385.43+0.64ODFL ahead
2026-02-1796.8884.98+0.68ODFL ahead
2026-02-1396.8387.72+0.16near the usual relationship
2026-02-1292.9786.86-0.33near the usual relationship
2026-02-1197.4588.28+0.15near the usual relationship
2026-02-1097.4787.32+0.32near the usual relationship
2026-02-0998.2886.75+0.54ODFL ahead
2026-02-06101.4786.32+1.11ODFL ahead
2026-02-05101.3085.74+1.20ODFL ahead
2026-02-04104.5185.88+1.67ODFL ahead
2026-02-0395.1082.28+0.87ODFL ahead
2026-02-0293.2881.12+0.79ODFL ahead
2026-01-3086.8078.14+0.26near the usual relationship
2026-01-2986.4977.97+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-01-2886.5676.29+0.60ODFL ahead
2026-01-2787.4278.86+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-01-2687.2078.69+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-01-2387.3579.44+0.14near the usual relationship
2026-01-2289.3380.41+0.30near the usual relationship
2026-01-2189.4179.81+0.43near the usual relationship
2026-01-2085.2078.38-0.01near the usual relationship
2026-01-1688.0378.65+0.43near the usual relationship
2026-01-1589.3179.91+0.41near the usual relationship
2026-01-1486.9679.01+0.19near the usual relationship
2026-01-1386.0278.41+0.15near the usual relationship
2026-01-1286.9979.47+0.12near the usual relationship
2026-01-0986.7679.50+0.09near the usual relationship
2026-01-0885.7378.69+0.07near the usual relationship
2026-01-0783.0577.55-0.17near the usual relationship
2026-01-0684.6377.41+0.13near the usual relationship
2026-01-0582.0575.04+0.14near the usual relationship
2026-01-0279.7874.32-0.12near the usual relationship
2025-12-3178.5872.97-0.07near the usual relationship
2025-12-3079.8473.30+0.10near the usual relationship
2025-12-2979.9673.33+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-12-2679.9373.96+0.00near the usual relationship
2025-12-2479.8674.05-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-12-2379.4973.71-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-12-2279.8374.10-0.03near the usual relationship
2025-12-1978.8874.98-0.36near the usual relationship
2025-12-1879.4675.10-0.28near the usual relationship
2025-12-1778.0474.27-0.38near the usual relationship
2025-12-1678.6573.65-0.16near the usual relationship
2025-12-1578.9173.62-0.11near the usual relationship
2025-12-1279.9374.24-0.05near the usual relationship
2025-12-1179.6473.92-0.03near the usual relationship
2025-12-1078.8473.30-0.06near the usual relationship
2025-12-0974.6271.34-0.45near the usual relationship
2025-12-0876.0170.29+0.01near the usual relationship
2025-12-0577.7569.79+0.42near the usual relationship
2025-12-0476.9369.71+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-12-0375.6572.25-0.44near the usual relationship
2025-12-0270.8970.32-0.97UPS ahead
2025-12-0170.0070.05-1.10UPS ahead
2025-11-2867.8070.47-1.64UPS ahead
2025-11-2667.6170.38-1.68UPS ahead
2025-11-2567.3269.55-1.59UPS ahead
2025-11-2466.3268.83-1.67UPS ahead
2025-11-2167.2969.64-1.65UPS ahead
2025-11-2063.2966.85-1.96UPS ahead
2025-11-1963.9067.98-2.09UPS ahead
2025-11-1865.4868.29-1.82UPS ahead
2025-11-1765.0969.29-2.15UPS ahead
2025-11-1466.3070.61-2.18UPS ahead
2025-11-1367.8870.60-1.85UPS ahead
2025-11-1269.5970.76-1.53UPS ahead
2025-11-1169.9269.91-1.29UPS ahead
2025-11-1069.0468.46-1.18UPS ahead
2025-11-0770.1170.59-1.41UPS ahead
2025-11-0669.0068.86-1.29UPS ahead
2025-11-0570.5568.35-0.84UPS ahead
2025-11-0470.8468.60-0.84UPS ahead
2025-11-0368.9169.22-1.39UPS ahead
2025-10-3170.3770.93-1.45UPS ahead
2025-10-3068.7869.93-1.58UPS ahead
2025-10-2968.2271.65-2.08UPS ahead
2025-10-2868.2070.89-1.91UPS ahead
2025-10-2768.5265.64-0.68UPS ahead
2025-10-2468.2264.17-0.41near the usual relationship
2025-10-2368.0964.03-0.40near the usual relationship
2025-10-2270.6764.06+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-10-2172.3564.78+0.34near the usual relationship
2025-10-2070.5263.94+0.16near the usual relationship
2025-10-1769.1863.57-0.03near the usual relationship
2025-10-1669.2163.00+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-10-1567.6861.86+0.05near the usual relationship
2025-10-1467.8761.83+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-10-1368.2561.19+0.35near the usual relationship
2025-10-1067.3160.97+0.20near the usual relationship
2025-10-0970.8062.74+0.53ODFL ahead
2025-10-0872.5663.45+0.73ODFL ahead
2025-10-0770.8463.25+0.43near the usual relationship
2025-10-0671.5763.72+0.48near the usual relationship
2025-10-0370.8363.84+0.31near the usual relationship
2025-10-0270.4662.95+0.44near the usual relationship
2025-10-0169.7862.08+0.51ODFL ahead
2025-09-3070.5561.45+0.81ODFL ahead
2025-09-2970.6862.16+0.68ODFL ahead
2025-09-2669.4561.59+0.57ODFL ahead
2025-09-2570.3860.75+0.96ODFL ahead
2025-09-2470.6961.72+0.80ODFL ahead
2025-09-2369.8362.10+0.54ODFL ahead
2025-09-2269.6361.97+0.54ODFL ahead
2025-09-1970.5861.84+0.77ODFL ahead
2025-09-1871.3662.57+0.76ODFL ahead
2025-09-1771.0661.93+0.86ODFL ahead
2025-09-1673.6862.68+1.21ODFL ahead
2025-09-1572.7961.81+1.25ODFL ahead
2025-09-1272.6162.05+1.17ODFL ahead
2025-09-1174.8762.27+1.57ODFL ahead
2025-09-1073.3261.69+1.42ODFL ahead
2025-09-0974.2862.09+1.52ODFL ahead
2025-09-0875.7362.03+1.83ODFL ahead
2025-09-0575.5362.56+1.69ODFL ahead
2025-09-0474.5862.15+1.62ODFL ahead
2025-09-0374.2362.75+1.42ODFL ahead
2025-09-0275.1262.70+1.62ODFL ahead
2025-08-2975.6664.33+1.36ODFL ahead
2025-08-2875.0264.20+1.28ODFL ahead
2025-08-2777.0964.64+1.59ODFL ahead
2025-08-2677.4264.34+1.74ODFL ahead
2025-08-2577.9164.55+1.81ODFL ahead
2025-08-2279.7565.34+2.00ODFL ahead
2025-08-2175.0563.38+1.55ODFL ahead
2025-08-2075.2963.96+1.48ODFL ahead
2025-08-1977.5864.59+1.80ODFL ahead
2025-08-1875.4063.64+1.61ODFL ahead
2025-08-1575.7465.09+1.34ODFL ahead
2025-08-1475.7365.14+1.34ODFL ahead
2025-08-1376.9164.87+1.66ODFL ahead
2025-08-1274.7964.32+1.37ODFL ahead
2025-08-1171.6763.50+0.90ODFL ahead
2025-08-0872.4063.76+1.00ODFL ahead
2025-08-0772.8363.63+1.14ODFL ahead
2025-08-0675.1463.45+1.69ODFL ahead
2025-08-0573.7463.84+1.31ODFL ahead
2025-08-0472.3562.55+1.34ODFL ahead
2025-08-0171.0962.16+1.16ODFL ahead
2025-07-3174.8063.39+1.68ODFL ahead
2025-07-3073.4064.14+1.19ODFL ahead
2025-07-2981.2566.83+2.20ODFL ahead
2025-07-2882.3574.73+0.60ODFL ahead
2025-07-2583.7476.19+0.56ODFL ahead
2025-07-2484.0975.43+0.79ODFL ahead
2025-07-2383.1976.16+0.47near the usual relationship
2025-07-2283.6474.41+0.93ODFL ahead
2025-07-2181.8172.76+0.94ODFL ahead
2025-07-1881.2372.99+0.79ODFL ahead
2025-07-1781.3073.20+0.76ODFL ahead
2025-07-1680.6073.30+0.61ODFL ahead
2025-07-1580.8673.22+0.68ODFL ahead
2025-07-1483.0673.66+1.01ODFL ahead
2025-07-1184.0674.50+1.02ODFL ahead
2025-07-1085.7675.72+1.08ODFL ahead
2025-07-0984.2075.15+0.93ODFL ahead
2025-07-0883.8875.32+0.84ODFL ahead
2025-07-0782.3474.19+0.80ODFL ahead
2025-07-0385.7176.61+0.92ODFL ahead
2025-07-0285.1277.64+0.63ODFL ahead
2025-07-0184.4276.86+0.66ODFL ahead
2025-06-3081.3474.26+0.63ODFL ahead
2025-06-2782.0374.44+0.72ODFL ahead
2025-06-2680.6874.01+0.57ODFL ahead
2025-06-2580.3673.10+0.69ODFL ahead
2025-06-2481.1774.02+0.66ODFL ahead
2025-06-2380.8773.86+0.65ODFL ahead
2025-06-2078.4173.03+0.40near the usual relationship
2025-06-1878.1972.99+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-06-1778.5273.32+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-06-1679.9174.37+0.43near the usual relationship
2025-06-1380.2773.57+0.63ODFL ahead
2025-06-1281.3974.24+0.69ODFL ahead
2025-06-1181.2474.42+0.64ODFL ahead
2025-06-1084.1475.38+0.92ODFL ahead
2025-06-0981.2973.06+0.89ODFL ahead
2025-06-0680.3572.28+0.88ODFL ahead
2025-06-0580.0271.26+1.00ODFL ahead
2025-06-0480.9372.50+0.94ODFL ahead
2025-06-0381.7072.15+1.11ODFL ahead
2025-06-0280.1871.63+0.99ODFL ahead
2025-05-3080.2771.76+0.98ODFL ahead
2025-05-2981.1972.17+1.05ODFL ahead
2025-05-2881.4071.17+1.25ODFL ahead
2025-05-2782.2971.76+1.28ODFL ahead
2025-05-2380.9770.16+1.35ODFL ahead
2025-05-2281.9971.34+1.31ODFL ahead
2025-05-2182.2870.51+1.49ODFL ahead
2025-05-2085.0071.76+1.66ODFL ahead
2025-05-1986.0072.91+1.62ODFL ahead
2025-05-1685.8474.54+1.37ODFL ahead
2025-05-1585.1673.82+1.39ODFL ahead
2025-05-1486.0273.31+1.59ODFL ahead
2025-05-1385.8773.43+1.56ODFL ahead
2025-05-1288.2474.46+1.71ODFL ahead
2025-05-0979.3270.54+1.16ODFL ahead
2025-05-0880.2471.32+1.17ODFL ahead
2025-05-0777.9769.12+1.21ODFL ahead
2025-05-0676.8569.01+1.08ODFL ahead
2025-05-0578.3070.30+1.09ODFL ahead
2025-05-0279.1970.92+1.12ODFL ahead
2025-05-0175.4569.59+0.82ODFL ahead
2025-04-3076.8270.11+0.93ODFL ahead
2025-04-2975.0071.16+0.54ODFL ahead
2025-04-2874.6771.43+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-04-2573.5472.03+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-04-2479.6372.77+0.94ODFL ahead
2025-04-2376.7971.51+0.75ODFL ahead
2025-04-2276.2171.24+0.71ODFL ahead
2025-04-2175.1170.81+0.62ODFL ahead
2025-04-1777.0570.94+0.87ODFL ahead
2025-04-1674.1069.30+0.71ODFL ahead
2025-04-1576.6070.99+0.81ODFL ahead
2025-04-1477.7372.59+0.73ODFL ahead
2025-04-1176.2971.42+0.71ODFL ahead
2025-04-1078.5671.04+1.08ODFL ahead
2025-04-0982.9473.32+1.32ODFL ahead
2025-04-0874.3467.62+1.03ODFL ahead
2025-04-0775.8870.30+0.84ODFL ahead
2025-04-0476.2171.88+0.66ODFL ahead
2025-04-0378.0573.66+0.66ODFL ahead
2025-04-0285.2581.07+0.58ODFL ahead
2025-04-0183.7480.38+0.48near the usual relationship
2025-03-3182.9280.92+0.31near the usual relationship
2025-03-2882.6280.67+0.30near the usual relationship
2025-03-2785.3181.67+0.51ODFL ahead
2025-03-2684.5381.67+0.42near the usual relationship
2025-03-2583.9980.89+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-03-2485.2285.19+0.06near the usual relationship
2025-03-2182.8084.68-0.17near the usual relationship
2025-03-2080.7586.06-0.61UPS ahead
2025-03-1981.4186.42-0.57UPS ahead
2025-03-1881.2387.44-0.72UPS ahead
2025-03-1783.2586.85-0.38near the usual relationship
2025-03-1481.4485.90-0.50UPS ahead
2025-03-1381.6884.77-0.33near the usual relationship
2025-03-1282.4684.79-0.23near the usual relationship
2025-03-1183.7185.60-0.17near the usual relationship
2025-03-1089.1988.74+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-03-0789.9889.47+0.13near the usual relationship
2025-03-0688.9988.65+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-03-0588.4687.56+0.17near the usual relationship
2025-03-0487.7085.92+0.28near the usual relationship
2025-03-0386.3487.74-0.11near the usual relationship
2025-02-2888.4587.57+0.17near the usual relationship
2025-02-2787.5986.54+0.19near the usual relationship
2025-02-2688.0585.99+0.31near the usual relationship
2025-02-2590.1586.89+0.45near the usual relationship
2025-02-2491.1985.46+0.76ODFL ahead
2025-02-2190.4185.58+0.65ODFL ahead
2025-02-2098.8585.78+1.59ODFL ahead
2025-02-19102.7984.60+2.18ODFL ahead
2025-02-18104.8984.91+2.39ODFL ahead
2025-02-14103.4185.50+2.19ODFL ahead
2025-02-13103.4385.07+2.28ODFL ahead
2025-02-12101.7484.06+2.26ODFL ahead
2025-02-11103.1284.26+2.42ODFL ahead
2025-02-10101.1283.98+2.27ODFL ahead
2025-02-0798.8383.21+2.14ODFL ahead
2025-02-0698.1783.48+2.05ODFL ahead
2025-02-0597.0582.32+2.10ODFL ahead
2025-02-0492.0482.23+1.51ODFL ahead
2025-02-0391.2381.87+1.47ODFL ahead
2025-01-3193.0284.04+1.40ODFL ahead
2025-01-3093.6184.53+1.42ODFL ahead
2025-01-2993.1398.42-0.43near the usual relationship
2025-01-2895.2199.62-0.31near the usual relationship
2025-01-2797.58100.24-0.08near the usual relationship
2025-01-2495.6297.87-0.03near the usual relationship
2025-01-2395.9998.29-0.03near the usual relationship
2025-01-2294.6197.51-0.10near the usual relationship
2025-01-2195.4397.75-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-01-1794.9995.44+0.20near the usual relationship
2025-01-1695.1895.59+0.21near the usual relationship
2025-01-1593.6593.78+0.25near the usual relationship
2025-01-1492.0292.58+0.21near the usual relationship
2025-01-1390.5491.97+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-01-1088.4190.69+0.01near the usual relationship
2025-01-0890.0093.25-0.10near the usual relationship
2025-01-0790.5391.94+0.13near the usual relationship
2025-01-0691.5591.38+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-01-0390.6691.07+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-01-0288.0791.13-0.05near the usual relationship
2024-12-3188.4092.77-0.20near the usual relationship
2024-12-3088.8492.19-0.08near the usual relationship
2024-12-2790.3292.78+0.04near the usual relationship
2024-12-2690.9392.96+0.09near the usual relationship
2024-12-2490.9992.89+0.11near the usual relationship
2024-12-2390.2992.51+0.07near the usual relationship
2024-12-2090.8992.46+0.15near the usual relationship
2024-12-1994.0990.23+0.78ODFL ahead
2024-12-1896.1191.09+0.91ODFL ahead
2024-12-1799.7293.67+1.01ODFL ahead
2024-12-1699.6794.57+0.91ODFL ahead
2024-12-13100.5894.73+1.00ODFL ahead
2024-12-12101.7594.89+1.11ODFL ahead
2024-12-11102.6494.99+1.19ODFL ahead
2024-12-10102.7895.80+1.13ODFL ahead
2024-12-09102.2094.56+1.21ODFL ahead
2024-12-06101.7392.41+1.41ODFL ahead
2024-12-05101.7293.86+1.26ODFL ahead
2024-12-04105.7694.74+1.58ODFL ahead
2024-12-03109.5595.42+1.89ODFL ahead
2024-12-02112.6898.59+1.86ODFL ahead
2024-11-29112.8399.85+1.76ODFL ahead
2024-11-27112.3199.82+1.73ODFL ahead
2024-11-26113.2599.29+1.90ODFL ahead
2024-11-25112.81101.18+1.68ODFL ahead
2024-11-22110.3899.18+1.67ODFL ahead
2024-11-21109.4596.65+1.88ODFL ahead
2024-11-20107.4197.18+1.64ODFL ahead
2024-11-19106.1497.99+1.43ODFL ahead
2024-11-18107.2499.41+1.40ODFL ahead
2024-11-15108.0398.63+1.58ODFL ahead
2024-11-14111.9797.58+2.11ODFL ahead
2024-11-13113.0698.34+2.16ODFL ahead
2024-11-12113.4295.74+2.53ODFL ahead
2024-11-11116.1996.82+2.73ODFL ahead
2024-11-08113.3297.43+2.41ODFL ahead
2024-11-07111.7198.69+2.12ODFL ahead
2024-11-06115.3698.52+2.56ODFL ahead
2024-11-05103.7498.46+1.33ODFL ahead
2024-11-04102.2397.84+1.24ODFL ahead
2024-11-01100.7298.62+0.97ODFL ahead
2024-10-31100.8998.62+1.00ODFL ahead
2024-10-30102.1498.43+1.18ODFL ahead
2024-10-29100.8998.81+0.99ODFL ahead
2024-10-28100.6799.57+0.88ODFL ahead
2024-10-2599.12101.10+0.52ODFL ahead
2024-10-2496.13101.78+0.07near the usual relationship
2024-10-2394.5596.67+0.49near the usual relationship
2024-10-22100.0196.62+1.18ODFL ahead
2024-10-2199.2596.62+1.10ODFL ahead
2024-10-18100.00100.00+0.78ODFL ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Nov 6, 2024 (ODFL +11.2%, UPS +0.1%); Jan 30, 2025 (ODFL +0.5%, UPS -14.1%); Jul 29, 2025 (ODFL -1.3%, UPS -10.6%); Apr 29, 2026 (ODFL -5.6%, UPS +2.6%). Upcoming earnings: UPS Oct 27, 2026 (pre-market); ODFL Oct 28, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

ODFL and UPS at a glance

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.

Listing
Nasdaq · SEC CIK 878927
Industry
Trucking Freight/Courier Services · SIC 4213 Trucking (No Local)
Market value
$38.7B
Price history
2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

UPS United Parcel Service Inc.

Listing
NYSE · SEC CIK 1090727
Industry
Trucking Freight/Courier Services · SIC 4210 Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)
Market value
$82.9B
Price history
2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

Related
All pairs →
PairStatusAhead nowIndustry
UPS / ZTOWatchlistUPS by 1.26 sdSIC 4210 Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)
UPS / JBHTWatchlistneitherTrucking Freight/Courier Services
ODFL / KNXWatchlistneitherSIC 4213 Trucking (No Local)
ODFL / JBHTWatchlistneitherTrucking Freight/Courier Services

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.