Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. vs United Parcel Service Inc.
Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($83B vs $39B) in Nasdaq's "Trucking Freight/Courier Services" industry; SEC SIC 4210 / 4213 (same major group).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.49 (needs >= 0.60)
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.45 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
UPS is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | ODFL | UPS | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $5.5B | $88.7B | UPS |
| 2024 | $5.8B | $91.1B | UPS |
| 2023 | $5.9B | $91.0B | UPS |
| 2022 | $6.3B | $100.3B | UPS |
| 2021 | $5.3B | $97.3B | UPS |
| 2020 | $4.0B | $84.6B | UPS |
UPS led in every year with figures for both. Market value: ODFL $38.7B, UPS $82.9B.
Neither is clearly ahead
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
The gap is 0.19 standard deviations, close to the usual relationship. 1 lead switch in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | -18.5% | -14.8% | +31.5% |
| UPS | -11.6% | -5.8% | +15.3% |
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Fail
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.49 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.45 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Pass
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 42.68 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | ODFL index | UPS index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 95.16 | 74.69 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-21 | 94.67 | 73.25 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-20 | 94.38 | 72.48 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-19 | 93.64 | 71.70 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-16 | 94.08 | 71.71 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-15 | 94.66 | 71.97 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-14 | 92.40 | 70.46 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.80 | 69.73 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-12 | 91.16 | 70.14 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-09 | 91.19 | 69.57 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-08 | 91.03 | 69.25 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-07 | 88.01 | 67.90 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-06 | 89.22 | 68.50 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-05 | 89.89 | 68.52 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-02 | 90.45 | 68.43 | +0.54 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 89.26 | 69.07 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-30 | 87.12 | 68.74 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-29 | 88.93 | 69.10 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-28 | 88.63 | 69.34 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-25 | 86.85 | 69.12 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-24 | 87.67 | 67.72 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-23 | 89.06 | 70.49 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-22 | 88.86 | 70.53 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-21 | 87.88 | 69.70 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-18 | 86.70 | 72.88 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-17 | 87.75 | 73.69 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-16 | 87.38 | 72.66 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-15 | 90.69 | 75.30 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-14 | 91.16 | 75.38 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-11 | 90.10 | 73.77 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-10 | 90.48 | 73.55 | +0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-09 | 91.19 | 72.99 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-08 | 93.72 | 73.92 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-04 | 93.15 | 75.25 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-03 | 93.09 | 76.14 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-02 | 94.02 | 75.78 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-01 | 93.72 | 75.52 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-31 | 100.21 | 76.68 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-28 | 99.54 | 77.49 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-27 | 100.26 | 77.75 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-26 | 99.94 | 77.72 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-25 | 99.40 | 77.35 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-24 | 100.97 | 75.57 | +0.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-21 | 103.47 | 75.05 | +0.92 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-20 | 102.50 | 75.47 | +0.81 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-19 | 102.78 | 75.67 | +0.82 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-18 | 104.24 | 74.99 | +1.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-17 | 106.22 | 75.05 | +1.15 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-14 | 105.73 | 76.88 | +0.94 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-13 | 108.11 | 77.64 | +1.04 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-12 | 106.52 | 76.44 | +1.05 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-11 | 104.96 | 76.83 | +0.91 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-10 | 106.52 | 77.04 | +1.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 108.43 | 76.88 | +1.17 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-06 | 105.95 | 75.92 | +1.10 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 107.97 | 79.23 | +0.92 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 109.91 | 80.27 | +0.96 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 106.00 | 78.62 | +0.84 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 106.31 | 76.67 | +1.07 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 106.48 | 77.44 | +1.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 111.65 | 76.92 | +1.45 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 113.40 | 77.64 | +1.52 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-27 | 113.65 | 83.09 | +1.00 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-24 | 116.76 | 84.45 | +1.10 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-23 | 115.62 | 83.94 | +1.08 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 116.67 | 85.22 | +1.03 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-21 | 117.67 | 85.59 | +1.08 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | 116.15 | 83.24 | +1.21 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-17 | 117.19 | 86.60 | +0.97 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 118.85 | 86.21 | +1.13 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-15 | 112.87 | 83.09 | +1.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 114.57 | 83.62 | +1.09 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 116.72 | 83.05 | +1.31 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 114.07 | 82.74 | +1.16 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-09 | 113.19 | 81.47 | +1.23 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-08 | 109.38 | 80.88 | +1.02 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 108.00 | 82.37 | +0.78 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-06 | 108.47 | 80.94 | +0.96 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-02 | 109.08 | 81.41 | +0.97 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-07-01 | 109.23 | 80.59 | +1.07 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-30 | 108.55 | 79.08 | +1.18 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-29 | 110.10 | 79.46 | +1.27 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-26 | 109.65 | 79.56 | +1.24 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-25 | 110.31 | 80.42 | +1.21 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-24 | 109.77 | 78.08 | +1.42 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-23 | 109.04 | 77.86 | +1.40 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-22 | 110.01 | 78.89 | +1.38 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-18 | 110.77 | 77.14 | +1.64 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-17 | 109.43 | 77.34 | +1.53 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 116.08 | 80.94 | +1.66 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-15 | 118.98 | 80.06 | +1.98 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-12 | 123.16 | 79.53 | +2.37 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 124.17 | 79.93 | +2.43 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-10 | 118.25 | 75.97 | +2.49 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 124.65 | 79.36 | +2.62 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 123.79 | 79.23 | +2.62 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 121.56 | 79.85 | +2.42 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-04 | 123.04 | 81.09 | +2.43 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 118.30 | 79.95 | +2.23 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 114.80 | 80.14 | +1.95 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 114.53 | 80.20 | +1.94 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 112.83 | 78.49 | +2.03 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 110.68 | 78.47 | +1.87 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-27 | 109.98 | 76.86 | +2.03 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-26 | 108.55 | 75.02 | +2.17 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-22 | 105.48 | 74.32 | +2.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-21 | 104.08 | 72.28 | +2.18 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-20 | 105.16 | 72.74 | +2.25 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-19 | 102.47 | 71.24 | +2.22 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-18 | 102.30 | 70.28 | +2.38 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-15 | 101.79 | 72.78 | +2.00 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-14 | 99.63 | 72.40 | +1.85 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-13 | 94.81 | 72.43 | +1.34 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-12 | 95.78 | 72.42 | +1.46 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-11 | 97.78 | 73.57 | +1.52 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-08 | 99.39 | 74.14 | +1.63 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-07 | 99.26 | 73.64 | +1.70 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-06 | 100.54 | 73.49 | +1.88 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 98.27 | 72.15 | +1.86 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 96.31 | 70.85 | +1.85 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 103.14 | 79.14 | +1.41 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 106.46 | 80.04 | +1.65 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 104.92 | 78.43 | +1.73 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 111.14 | 76.47 | +2.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 110.52 | 79.63 | +2.20 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 110.24 | 78.73 | +2.33 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 111.65 | 79.25 | +2.44 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 110.24 | 77.47 | +2.60 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 112.47 | 78.21 | +2.77 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-20 | 111.95 | 78.80 | +2.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-17 | 109.13 | 78.31 | +2.49 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-16 | 107.03 | 77.29 | +2.46 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-15 | 102.83 | 76.19 | +2.17 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-14 | 105.45 | 75.94 | +2.56 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-13 | 104.05 | 75.05 | +2.59 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 104.42 | 74.82 | +2.72 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 104.99 | 74.77 | +2.86 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-08 | 104.00 | 73.90 | +2.95 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 99.69 | 71.78 | +2.83 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 101.32 | 71.48 | +3.17 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 99.23 | 72.23 | +2.80 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 100.05 | 72.03 | +3.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 97.93 | 72.38 | +2.69 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 95.09 | 69.85 | +2.83 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 94.39 | 69.74 | +2.80 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 94.18 | 71.73 | +2.40 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 94.74 | 72.37 | +2.38 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 92.73 | 72.42 | +2.07 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 94.07 | 71.85 | +2.42 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 92.17 | 70.52 | +2.41 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 91.39 | 71.04 | +2.19 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 91.50 | 71.24 | +2.18 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 92.43 | 71.93 | +2.21 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 91.43 | 71.65 | +2.12 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 90.58 | 71.51 | +2.03 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 88.32 | 72.02 | +1.57 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 94.61 | 74.16 | +2.18 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 97.73 | 74.24 | +2.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 98.84 | 73.52 | +3.06 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 97.21 | 75.30 | +2.48 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 105.58 | 76.56 | +3.59 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 108.34 | 81.29 | +3.11 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 104.21 | 83.30 | +2.14 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 104.11 | 84.18 | +1.98 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-27 | 101.76 | 85.31 | +1.41 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-26 | 99.41 | 85.80 | +0.95 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-25 | 96.07 | 83.76 | +0.80 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 98.58 | 84.87 | +1.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-23 | 97.16 | 84.62 | +0.82 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-20 | 100.93 | 85.88 | +1.19 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-19 | 97.81 | 85.00 | +0.84 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 97.13 | 85.43 | +0.64 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 96.88 | 84.98 | +0.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-13 | 96.83 | 87.72 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-12 | 92.97 | 86.86 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-11 | 97.45 | 88.28 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-10 | 97.47 | 87.32 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-09 | 98.28 | 86.75 | +0.54 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-06 | 101.47 | 86.32 | +1.11 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 101.30 | 85.74 | +1.20 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 104.51 | 85.88 | +1.67 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-03 | 95.10 | 82.28 | +0.87 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 93.28 | 81.12 | +0.79 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 86.80 | 78.14 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-29 | 86.49 | 77.97 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-28 | 86.56 | 76.29 | +0.60 | ODFL ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 87.42 | 78.86 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-26 | 87.20 | 78.69 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-23 | 87.35 | 79.44 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-22 | 89.33 | 80.41 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-21 | 89.41 | 79.81 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-20 | 85.20 | 78.38 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-16 | 88.03 | 78.65 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-15 | 89.31 | 79.91 | +0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-14 | 86.96 | 79.01 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-13 | 86.02 | 78.41 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-12 | 86.99 | 79.47 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-09 | 86.76 | 79.50 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-08 | 85.73 | 78.69 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-07 | 83.05 | 77.55 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-06 | 84.63 | 77.41 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-05 | 82.05 | 75.04 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-02 | 79.78 | 74.32 | -0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-31 | 78.58 | 72.97 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-30 | 79.84 | 73.30 | +0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-29 | 79.96 | 73.33 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-26 | 79.93 | 73.96 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-24 | 79.86 | 74.05 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-23 | 79.49 | 73.71 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-22 | 79.83 | 74.10 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-19 | 78.88 | 74.98 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-18 | 79.46 | 75.10 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-17 | 78.04 | 74.27 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-16 | 78.65 | 73.65 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-15 | 78.91 | 73.62 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-12 | 79.93 | 74.24 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-11 | 79.64 | 73.92 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-10 | 78.84 | 73.30 | -0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-09 | 74.62 | 71.34 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-08 | 76.01 | 70.29 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-05 | 77.75 | 69.79 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-04 | 76.93 | 69.71 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-03 | 75.65 | 72.25 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-02 | 70.89 | 70.32 | -0.97 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 70.00 | 70.05 | -1.10 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 67.80 | 70.47 | -1.64 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 67.61 | 70.38 | -1.68 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 67.32 | 69.55 | -1.59 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 66.32 | 68.83 | -1.67 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 67.29 | 69.64 | -1.65 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 63.29 | 66.85 | -1.96 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 63.90 | 67.98 | -2.09 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 65.48 | 68.29 | -1.82 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-17 | 65.09 | 69.29 | -2.15 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-14 | 66.30 | 70.61 | -2.18 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-13 | 67.88 | 70.60 | -1.85 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-12 | 69.59 | 70.76 | -1.53 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-11 | 69.92 | 69.91 | -1.29 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 69.04 | 68.46 | -1.18 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 70.11 | 70.59 | -1.41 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 69.00 | 68.86 | -1.29 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 70.55 | 68.35 | -0.84 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 70.84 | 68.60 | -0.84 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-11-03 | 68.91 | 69.22 | -1.39 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-10-31 | 70.37 | 70.93 | -1.45 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 68.78 | 69.93 | -1.58 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 68.22 | 71.65 | -2.08 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 68.20 | 70.89 | -1.91 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 68.52 | 65.64 | -0.68 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 68.22 | 64.17 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-23 | 68.09 | 64.03 | -0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-22 | 70.67 | 64.06 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-21 | 72.35 | 64.78 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-20 | 70.52 | 63.94 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-17 | 69.18 | 63.57 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-16 | 69.21 | 63.00 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-15 | 67.68 | 61.86 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-14 | 67.87 | 61.83 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-13 | 68.25 | 61.19 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-10 | 67.31 | 60.97 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-09 | 70.80 | 62.74 | +0.53 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 72.56 | 63.45 | +0.73 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 70.84 | 63.25 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-06 | 71.57 | 63.72 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-03 | 70.83 | 63.84 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-02 | 70.46 | 62.95 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-01 | 69.78 | 62.08 | +0.51 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 70.55 | 61.45 | +0.81 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 70.68 | 62.16 | +0.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 69.45 | 61.59 | +0.57 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 70.38 | 60.75 | +0.96 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 70.69 | 61.72 | +0.80 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 69.83 | 62.10 | +0.54 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 69.63 | 61.97 | +0.54 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 70.58 | 61.84 | +0.77 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 71.36 | 62.57 | +0.76 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 71.06 | 61.93 | +0.86 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 73.68 | 62.68 | +1.21 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 72.79 | 61.81 | +1.25 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 72.61 | 62.05 | +1.17 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 74.87 | 62.27 | +1.57 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 73.32 | 61.69 | +1.42 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 74.28 | 62.09 | +1.52 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 75.73 | 62.03 | +1.83 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 75.53 | 62.56 | +1.69 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 74.58 | 62.15 | +1.62 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 74.23 | 62.75 | +1.42 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 75.12 | 62.70 | +1.62 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 75.66 | 64.33 | +1.36 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 75.02 | 64.20 | +1.28 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 77.09 | 64.64 | +1.59 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 77.42 | 64.34 | +1.74 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 77.91 | 64.55 | +1.81 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 79.75 | 65.34 | +2.00 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 75.05 | 63.38 | +1.55 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 75.29 | 63.96 | +1.48 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 77.58 | 64.59 | +1.80 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 75.40 | 63.64 | +1.61 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 75.74 | 65.09 | +1.34 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 75.73 | 65.14 | +1.34 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-13 | 76.91 | 64.87 | +1.66 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-12 | 74.79 | 64.32 | +1.37 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-11 | 71.67 | 63.50 | +0.90 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-08 | 72.40 | 63.76 | +1.00 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-07 | 72.83 | 63.63 | +1.14 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-06 | 75.14 | 63.45 | +1.69 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 73.74 | 63.84 | +1.31 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-04 | 72.35 | 62.55 | +1.34 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-08-01 | 71.09 | 62.16 | +1.16 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-31 | 74.80 | 63.39 | +1.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-30 | 73.40 | 64.14 | +1.19 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 81.25 | 66.83 | +2.20 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 82.35 | 74.73 | +0.60 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 83.74 | 76.19 | +0.56 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 84.09 | 75.43 | +0.79 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 83.19 | 76.16 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-22 | 83.64 | 74.41 | +0.93 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 81.81 | 72.76 | +0.94 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-18 | 81.23 | 72.99 | +0.79 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-17 | 81.30 | 73.20 | +0.76 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-16 | 80.60 | 73.30 | +0.61 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-15 | 80.86 | 73.22 | +0.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-14 | 83.06 | 73.66 | +1.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-11 | 84.06 | 74.50 | +1.02 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-10 | 85.76 | 75.72 | +1.08 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-09 | 84.20 | 75.15 | +0.93 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-08 | 83.88 | 75.32 | +0.84 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-07 | 82.34 | 74.19 | +0.80 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-03 | 85.71 | 76.61 | +0.92 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-02 | 85.12 | 77.64 | +0.63 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-07-01 | 84.42 | 76.86 | +0.66 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-30 | 81.34 | 74.26 | +0.63 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-27 | 82.03 | 74.44 | +0.72 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-26 | 80.68 | 74.01 | +0.57 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-25 | 80.36 | 73.10 | +0.69 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-24 | 81.17 | 74.02 | +0.66 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-23 | 80.87 | 73.86 | +0.65 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-20 | 78.41 | 73.03 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-18 | 78.19 | 72.99 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-17 | 78.52 | 73.32 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-16 | 79.91 | 74.37 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-13 | 80.27 | 73.57 | +0.63 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-12 | 81.39 | 74.24 | +0.69 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-11 | 81.24 | 74.42 | +0.64 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-10 | 84.14 | 75.38 | +0.92 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-09 | 81.29 | 73.06 | +0.89 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-06 | 80.35 | 72.28 | +0.88 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-05 | 80.02 | 71.26 | +1.00 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-04 | 80.93 | 72.50 | +0.94 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-03 | 81.70 | 72.15 | +1.11 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-06-02 | 80.18 | 71.63 | +0.99 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-30 | 80.27 | 71.76 | +0.98 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-29 | 81.19 | 72.17 | +1.05 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-28 | 81.40 | 71.17 | +1.25 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-27 | 82.29 | 71.76 | +1.28 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-23 | 80.97 | 70.16 | +1.35 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-22 | 81.99 | 71.34 | +1.31 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-21 | 82.28 | 70.51 | +1.49 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-20 | 85.00 | 71.76 | +1.66 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-19 | 86.00 | 72.91 | +1.62 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-16 | 85.84 | 74.54 | +1.37 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-15 | 85.16 | 73.82 | +1.39 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-14 | 86.02 | 73.31 | +1.59 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-13 | 85.87 | 73.43 | +1.56 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-12 | 88.24 | 74.46 | +1.71 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-09 | 79.32 | 70.54 | +1.16 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-08 | 80.24 | 71.32 | +1.17 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-07 | 77.97 | 69.12 | +1.21 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-06 | 76.85 | 69.01 | +1.08 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-05 | 78.30 | 70.30 | +1.09 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-02 | 79.19 | 70.92 | +1.12 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-05-01 | 75.45 | 69.59 | +0.82 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-30 | 76.82 | 70.11 | +0.93 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-29 | 75.00 | 71.16 | +0.54 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-28 | 74.67 | 71.43 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-25 | 73.54 | 72.03 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-24 | 79.63 | 72.77 | +0.94 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-23 | 76.79 | 71.51 | +0.75 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-22 | 76.21 | 71.24 | +0.71 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-21 | 75.11 | 70.81 | +0.62 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-17 | 77.05 | 70.94 | +0.87 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-16 | 74.10 | 69.30 | +0.71 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-15 | 76.60 | 70.99 | +0.81 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-14 | 77.73 | 72.59 | +0.73 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-11 | 76.29 | 71.42 | +0.71 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-10 | 78.56 | 71.04 | +1.08 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-09 | 82.94 | 73.32 | +1.32 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-08 | 74.34 | 67.62 | +1.03 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-07 | 75.88 | 70.30 | +0.84 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-04 | 76.21 | 71.88 | +0.66 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-03 | 78.05 | 73.66 | +0.66 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-02 | 85.25 | 81.07 | +0.58 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-04-01 | 83.74 | 80.38 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-31 | 82.92 | 80.92 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-28 | 82.62 | 80.67 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-27 | 85.31 | 81.67 | +0.51 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-03-26 | 84.53 | 81.67 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-25 | 83.99 | 80.89 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-24 | 85.22 | 85.19 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-21 | 82.80 | 84.68 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-20 | 80.75 | 86.06 | -0.61 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-03-19 | 81.41 | 86.42 | -0.57 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-03-18 | 81.23 | 87.44 | -0.72 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-03-17 | 83.25 | 86.85 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-14 | 81.44 | 85.90 | -0.50 | UPS ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 81.68 | 84.77 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-12 | 82.46 | 84.79 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-11 | 83.71 | 85.60 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-10 | 89.19 | 88.74 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-07 | 89.98 | 89.47 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-06 | 88.99 | 88.65 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-05 | 88.46 | 87.56 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-04 | 87.70 | 85.92 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-03 | 86.34 | 87.74 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-28 | 88.45 | 87.57 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-27 | 87.59 | 86.54 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-26 | 88.05 | 85.99 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-25 | 90.15 | 86.89 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-24 | 91.19 | 85.46 | +0.76 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-21 | 90.41 | 85.58 | +0.65 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-20 | 98.85 | 85.78 | +1.59 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-19 | 102.79 | 84.60 | +2.18 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-18 | 104.89 | 84.91 | +2.39 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-14 | 103.41 | 85.50 | +2.19 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-13 | 103.43 | 85.07 | +2.28 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-12 | 101.74 | 84.06 | +2.26 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-11 | 103.12 | 84.26 | +2.42 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-10 | 101.12 | 83.98 | +2.27 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-07 | 98.83 | 83.21 | +2.14 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-06 | 98.17 | 83.48 | +2.05 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-05 | 97.05 | 82.32 | +2.10 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-04 | 92.04 | 82.23 | +1.51 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-02-03 | 91.23 | 81.87 | +1.47 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-01-31 | 93.02 | 84.04 | +1.40 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-01-30 | 93.61 | 84.53 | +1.42 | ODFL ahead |
| 2025-01-29 | 93.13 | 98.42 | -0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-28 | 95.21 | 99.62 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-27 | 97.58 | 100.24 | -0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-24 | 95.62 | 97.87 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-23 | 95.99 | 98.29 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-22 | 94.61 | 97.51 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-21 | 95.43 | 97.75 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-17 | 94.99 | 95.44 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-16 | 95.18 | 95.59 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-15 | 93.65 | 93.78 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-14 | 92.02 | 92.58 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-13 | 90.54 | 91.97 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-10 | 88.41 | 90.69 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-08 | 90.00 | 93.25 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-07 | 90.53 | 91.94 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-06 | 91.55 | 91.38 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-03 | 90.66 | 91.07 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-02 | 88.07 | 91.13 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-31 | 88.40 | 92.77 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-30 | 88.84 | 92.19 | -0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-27 | 90.32 | 92.78 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-26 | 90.93 | 92.96 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-24 | 90.99 | 92.89 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-23 | 90.29 | 92.51 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-20 | 90.89 | 92.46 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-19 | 94.09 | 90.23 | +0.78 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-18 | 96.11 | 91.09 | +0.91 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-17 | 99.72 | 93.67 | +1.01 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-16 | 99.67 | 94.57 | +0.91 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-13 | 100.58 | 94.73 | +1.00 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-12 | 101.75 | 94.89 | +1.11 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-11 | 102.64 | 94.99 | +1.19 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-10 | 102.78 | 95.80 | +1.13 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-09 | 102.20 | 94.56 | +1.21 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-06 | 101.73 | 92.41 | +1.41 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-05 | 101.72 | 93.86 | +1.26 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-04 | 105.76 | 94.74 | +1.58 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-03 | 109.55 | 95.42 | +1.89 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-12-02 | 112.68 | 98.59 | +1.86 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-29 | 112.83 | 99.85 | +1.76 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-27 | 112.31 | 99.82 | +1.73 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-26 | 113.25 | 99.29 | +1.90 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-25 | 112.81 | 101.18 | +1.68 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-22 | 110.38 | 99.18 | +1.67 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-21 | 109.45 | 96.65 | +1.88 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-20 | 107.41 | 97.18 | +1.64 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-19 | 106.14 | 97.99 | +1.43 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-18 | 107.24 | 99.41 | +1.40 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-15 | 108.03 | 98.63 | +1.58 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-14 | 111.97 | 97.58 | +2.11 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-13 | 113.06 | 98.34 | +2.16 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-12 | 113.42 | 95.74 | +2.53 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-11 | 116.19 | 96.82 | +2.73 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-08 | 113.32 | 97.43 | +2.41 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-07 | 111.71 | 98.69 | +2.12 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-06 | 115.36 | 98.52 | +2.56 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-05 | 103.74 | 98.46 | +1.33 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-04 | 102.23 | 97.84 | +1.24 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-11-01 | 100.72 | 98.62 | +0.97 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-31 | 100.89 | 98.62 | +1.00 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-30 | 102.14 | 98.43 | +1.18 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-29 | 100.89 | 98.81 | +0.99 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-28 | 100.67 | 99.57 | +0.88 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-25 | 99.12 | 101.10 | +0.52 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-24 | 96.13 | 101.78 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-23 | 94.55 | 96.67 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-22 | 100.01 | 96.62 | +1.18 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-21 | 99.25 | 96.62 | +1.10 | ODFL ahead |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | +0.78 | ODFL ahead |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Nov 6, 2024 (ODFL +11.2%, UPS +0.1%); Jan 30, 2025 (ODFL +0.5%, UPS -14.1%); Jul 29, 2025 (ODFL -1.3%, UPS -10.6%); Apr 29, 2026 (ODFL -5.6%, UPS +2.6%). Upcoming earnings: UPS Oct 27, 2026 (pre-market); ODFL Oct 28, 2026 (pre-market).
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
ODFL and UPS at a glance
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.
- Listing
- Nasdaq · SEC CIK 878927
- Industry
- Trucking Freight/Courier Services · SIC 4213 Trucking (No Local)
- Market value
- $38.7B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
UPS United Parcel Service Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 1090727
- Industry
- Trucking Freight/Courier Services · SIC 4210 Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)
- Market value
- $82.9B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Other rivals of ODFL and UPS
| Pair | Status | Ahead now | Industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPS / ZTO | Watchlist | UPS by 1.26 sd | SIC 4210 Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) |
| UPS / JBHT | Watchlist | neither | Trucking Freight/Courier Services |
| ODFL / KNX | Watchlist | neither | SIC 4213 Trucking (No Local) |
| ODFL / JBHT | Watchlist | neither | Trucking Freight/Courier Services |
Follow the research behind the paper book
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Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
