NVR Inc. vs PulteGroup Inc.
WatchlistNVR / PHMPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($21B vs $16B) with SEC SIC 1531 (Operative Builders).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.06 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Business leadership
PHM is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | NVR | PHM | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $10.3B | $17.3B | PHM |
| 2024 | $10.5B | $17.9B | PHM |
| 2023 | $9.5B | $16.1B | PHM |
| 2022 | $10.5B | $16.0B | PHM |
| 2021 | $9.0B | $13.7B | PHM |
| 2020 | $7.5B | $11.0B | PHM |
PHM led in every year with figures for both. Market value: NVR $15.5B, PHM $20.8B.
Stock leadership
PHM is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
PHM leads NVR by 0.81 standard deviations: +6.6% over its usual price ratio. 0 lead switches in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVR | -4.7% | -8.4% | -21.6% |
| PHM | -7.2% | -8.5% | -3.1% |
Relationship
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Pass
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.76 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.06 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Pass
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 32.85 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
NVR NVR Inc. PHM PulteGroup Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: NVR relative to PHM, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: NVR ahead; below 0: PHM ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | NVR index | PHM index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 61.57 | 80.17 | -0.81 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 59.45 | 75.74 | -0.54 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 60.23 | 76.85 | -0.57 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-19 | 58.72 | 74.41 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-16 | 59.65 | 76.19 | -0.59 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 59.86 | 75.81 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-14 | 57.77 | 73.37 | -0.53 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 58.42 | 74.87 | -0.65 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 57.94 | 74.57 | -0.71 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 59.44 | 75.23 | -0.51 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 60.48 | 76.17 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-07 | 59.77 | 75.37 | -0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-10-06 | 60.93 | 77.90 | -0.65 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 60.16 | 76.48 | -0.58 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 60.40 | 77.65 | -0.73 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 61.73 | 78.07 | -0.53 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-30 | 62.01 | 77.87 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-29 | 62.82 | 79.51 | -0.55 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-28 | 63.16 | 79.93 | -0.56 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-25 | 63.46 | 80.41 | -0.58 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 62.83 | 79.29 | -0.54 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-23 | 62.89 | 79.65 | -0.59 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-22 | 63.87 | 82.05 | -0.76 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 62.36 | 79.82 | -0.72 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-18 | 61.97 | 78.68 | -0.63 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-17 | 62.90 | 79.74 | -0.62 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-16 | 62.34 | 78.87 | -0.60 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-15 | 63.05 | 80.16 | -0.67 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-14 | 63.48 | 79.80 | -0.54 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-11 | 62.08 | 79.35 | -0.74 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-10 | 61.35 | 78.11 | -0.70 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-09 | 62.34 | 79.80 | -0.77 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 61.63 | 80.56 | -1.02 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-04 | 63.47 | 83.50 | -1.11 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-03 | 64.23 | 83.41 | -0.96 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-02 | 63.75 | 83.00 | -1.00 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-09-01 | 63.24 | 82.62 | -1.05 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 63.63 | 84.76 | -1.29 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.45 | 86.25 | -1.35 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 64.14 | 85.04 | -1.25 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 64.17 | 87.25 | -1.56 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 64.83 | 87.80 | -1.53 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 64.46 | 86.96 | -1.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-21 | 64.07 | 86.55 | -1.52 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-20 | 63.48 | 85.66 | -1.52 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-19 | 64.68 | 87.68 | -1.59 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-18 | 62.96 | 84.57 | -1.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-17 | 63.47 | 86.21 | -1.64 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-14 | 63.56 | 87.35 | -1.79 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-13 | 64.24 | 87.59 | -1.72 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-12 | 63.42 | 86.66 | -1.76 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-11 | 64.79 | 88.85 | -1.82 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-10 | 63.40 | 87.26 | -1.87 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 64.39 | 89.17 | -1.97 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-06 | 63.53 | 86.92 | -1.84 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 64.14 | 89.24 | -2.06 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 63.15 | 88.35 | -2.14 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 62.51 | 86.75 | -2.06 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 61.94 | 84.86 | -1.93 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 63.37 | 86.38 | -1.88 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 64.30 | 88.77 | -2.05 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 65.21 | 90.41 | -2.12 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-27 | 63.60 | 87.62 | -2.06 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-24 | 64.64 | 86.39 | -1.71 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-23 | 62.02 | 83.65 | -1.84 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 63.98 | 85.04 | -1.68 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-21 | 63.74 | 83.37 | -1.49 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | 64.96 | 82.65 | -1.17 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-17 | 65.39 | 84.59 | -1.37 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 67.52 | 86.57 | -1.27 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-15 | 65.47 | 84.13 | -1.31 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 64.27 | 83.57 | -1.46 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 64.87 | 83.03 | -1.28 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 65.29 | 83.70 | -1.31 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-09 | 65.21 | 83.01 | -1.23 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-08 | 64.78 | 82.49 | -1.24 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 67.45 | 87.17 | -1.42 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-06 | 67.45 | 88.15 | -1.56 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-02 | 68.02 | 89.69 | -1.67 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-07-01 | 66.94 | 88.96 | -1.77 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-30 | 68.65 | 92.06 | -1.89 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-29 | 68.73 | 92.55 | -1.95 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-26 | 68.81 | 92.33 | -1.93 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-25 | 68.66 | 91.12 | -1.81 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-24 | 68.16 | 91.06 | -1.90 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-23 | 64.38 | 84.91 | -1.77 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-22 | 64.01 | 84.29 | -1.76 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-18 | 65.40 | 85.19 | -1.65 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-17 | 63.24 | 81.78 | -1.58 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 64.87 | 83.71 | -1.56 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-15 | 63.83 | 82.42 | -1.58 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-12 | 64.23 | 82.64 | -1.55 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 65.29 | 83.20 | -1.45 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-10 | 63.53 | 79.50 | -1.25 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 64.55 | 82.38 | -1.48 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 62.38 | 78.98 | -1.40 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 62.30 | 79.44 | -1.49 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-04 | 62.24 | 79.32 | -1.49 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 61.66 | 78.64 | -1.51 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 62.28 | 79.02 | -1.46 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 61.68 | 78.97 | -1.57 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 61.51 | 79.29 | -1.65 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 62.07 | 79.18 | -1.55 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-27 | 61.45 | 79.91 | -1.77 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-26 | 60.79 | 79.07 | -1.79 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-22 | 60.83 | 78.12 | -1.66 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-21 | 60.94 | 78.03 | -1.64 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-20 | 60.36 | 78.01 | -1.75 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-19 | 58.18 | 74.51 | -1.67 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-18 | 57.60 | 75.00 | -1.87 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-15 | 56.06 | 73.88 | -2.02 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-14 | 57.24 | 76.40 | -2.18 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-13 | 57.64 | 75.80 | -2.04 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-12 | 58.40 | 76.86 | -2.07 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-11 | 59.56 | 77.46 | -1.96 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-08 | 60.20 | 78.87 | -2.07 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-07 | 60.55 | 78.38 | -1.95 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-06 | 61.46 | 80.58 | -2.12 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 60.50 | 79.15 | -2.12 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 59.77 | 77.26 | -2.01 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 62.01 | 79.99 | -2.01 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 63.64 | 82.10 | -2.03 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 62.55 | 80.99 | -2.10 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 64.91 | 83.82 | -2.09 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 65.32 | 86.07 | -2.35 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 65.53 | 85.59 | -2.28 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 67.20 | 87.65 | -2.29 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 66.61 | 85.59 | -2.13 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 69.86 | 86.31 | -1.68 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-20 | 71.51 | 85.48 | -1.30 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-17 | 70.54 | 84.90 | -1.38 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-16 | 67.55 | 80.83 | -1.32 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-15 | 68.19 | 81.07 | -1.25 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-14 | 68.96 | 82.31 | -1.31 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-13 | 68.33 | 81.69 | -1.33 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 68.01 | 80.74 | -1.26 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 68.51 | 82.01 | -1.36 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-08 | 68.07 | 80.81 | -1.28 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 65.42 | 77.22 | -1.22 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 67.67 | 80.40 | -1.31 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 67.14 | 78.70 | -1.17 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 67.15 | 78.60 | -1.16 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 66.40 | 78.91 | -1.34 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 65.49 | 76.30 | -1.13 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 65.00 | 76.91 | -1.31 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 65.80 | 78.58 | -1.43 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 66.02 | 79.29 | -1.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 65.49 | 79.23 | -1.60 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 65.80 | 79.60 | -1.61 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 64.18 | 76.86 | -1.51 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 64.67 | 79.07 | -1.77 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 65.32 | 78.56 | -1.59 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 66.47 | 81.83 | -1.88 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 66.16 | 81.97 | -1.98 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 65.16 | 79.97 | -1.89 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 64.88 | 80.82 | -2.09 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 66.61 | 82.78 | -2.08 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 68.35 | 83.46 | -1.90 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 69.24 | 84.98 | -1.98 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 70.12 | 85.78 | -1.97 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 71.29 | 86.99 | -1.96 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 73.07 | 88.69 | -1.92 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 74.17 | 88.59 | -1.74 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 74.72 | 89.72 | -1.82 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-27 | 75.75 | 92.06 | -1.99 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-26 | 74.91 | 91.02 | -2.02 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-25 | 73.39 | 90.32 | -2.20 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 75.62 | 94.54 | -2.44 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-23 | 75.14 | 94.08 | -2.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-20 | 76.38 | 93.95 | -2.30 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-19 | 75.83 | 93.67 | -2.39 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 75.80 | 95.34 | -2.68 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 74.78 | 94.99 | -2.86 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-13 | 75.65 | 95.65 | -2.86 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-12 | 81.58 | 93.19 | -1.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-11 | 81.59 | 93.48 | -1.56 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-10 | 81.56 | 92.14 | -1.38 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-09 | 79.42 | 88.82 | -1.25 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-06 | 80.71 | 90.64 | -1.32 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 81.06 | 89.94 | -1.16 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 80.87 | 90.29 | -1.26 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-03 | 78.30 | 87.53 | -1.29 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 77.77 | 85.26 | -1.03 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 76.94 | 83.93 | -0.97 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 76.82 | 85.39 | -1.23 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 76.84 | 82.71 | -0.80 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 75.57 | 83.12 | -1.11 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-26 | 77.23 | 83.92 | -0.95 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 77.03 | 83.98 | -1.00 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 78.21 | 85.73 | -1.08 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 78.56 | 87.20 | -1.26 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 75.94 | 85.08 | -1.40 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 76.19 | 87.38 | -1.74 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 76.81 | 89.15 | -1.92 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 76.39 | 87.71 | -1.79 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 77.32 | 89.68 | -1.95 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 76.50 | 89.39 | -2.08 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 76.39 | 88.70 | -2.01 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 74.42 | 82.64 | -1.40 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 72.01 | 78.70 | -1.19 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 72.95 | 81.29 | -1.47 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-05 | 73.77 | 80.42 | -1.17 | PHM ahead |
| 2026-01-02 | 73.34 | 79.89 | -1.17 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-31 | 73.48 | 78.68 | -0.94 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-30 | 73.83 | 79.26 | -0.98 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-29 | 74.11 | 79.64 | -1.00 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-26 | 74.38 | 79.98 | -1.02 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-24 | 74.42 | 80.08 | -1.03 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-23 | 73.94 | 78.76 | -0.90 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-22 | 74.53 | 79.92 | -1.00 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-19 | 74.56 | 80.34 | -1.07 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-18 | 76.19 | 81.63 | -1.00 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-17 | 75.29 | 82.39 | -1.30 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-16 | 75.88 | 83.46 | -1.38 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-15 | 76.90 | 84.88 | -1.44 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-12 | 75.75 | 84.83 | -1.66 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-11 | 75.68 | 85.59 | -1.81 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-10 | 75.62 | 85.82 | -1.88 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-09 | 73.74 | 82.56 | -1.71 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-08 | 74.95 | 83.79 | -1.71 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-05 | 75.96 | 85.21 | -1.78 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 75.77 | 85.81 | -1.93 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-03 | 77.38 | 87.45 | -1.92 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-02 | 76.59 | 84.91 | -1.67 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 75.74 | 85.33 | -1.92 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 75.64 | 85.34 | -1.96 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 76.24 | 85.61 | -1.91 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 75.10 | 84.35 | -1.94 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 73.19 | 80.03 | -1.56 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 74.45 | 80.73 | -1.45 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 72.18 | 76.72 | -1.16 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 71.74 | 76.33 | -1.18 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 72.02 | 76.15 | -1.10 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-17 | 72.11 | 76.41 | -1.14 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-14 | 73.27 | 79.42 | -1.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-13 | 73.11 | 79.46 | -1.55 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-12 | 73.43 | 80.94 | -1.78 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-11 | 73.57 | 81.33 | -1.85 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 73.93 | 80.63 | -1.66 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 73.06 | 80.35 | -1.81 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 72.50 | 79.80 | -1.84 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 72.37 | 80.15 | -1.96 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 72.00 | 80.27 | -2.09 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-11-03 | 71.26 | 79.68 | -2.16 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-31 | 72.66 | 80.43 | -2.03 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 73.01 | 79.87 | -1.86 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 73.89 | 79.33 | -1.57 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 75.18 | 81.01 | -1.65 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 74.95 | 80.72 | -1.66 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 74.88 | 80.87 | -1.72 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-23 | 77.38 | 81.09 | -1.23 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-22 | 77.56 | 80.66 | -1.11 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-21 | 78.51 | 82.71 | -1.33 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-20 | 77.40 | 82.71 | -1.58 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-17 | 76.97 | 83.50 | -1.85 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-16 | 76.64 | 83.12 | -1.87 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-15 | 77.03 | 83.66 | -1.91 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-14 | 77.96 | 83.80 | -1.75 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-13 | 76.43 | 80.84 | -1.49 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 75.08 | 80.54 | -1.75 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-09 | 76.77 | 81.46 | -1.57 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 78.16 | 85.65 | -2.16 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 79.00 | 86.96 | -2.27 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 81.30 | 90.90 | -2.59 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-03 | 82.40 | 92.33 | -2.67 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 81.33 | 90.50 | -2.59 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 80.98 | 90.20 | -2.65 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 80.96 | 88.65 | -2.37 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 81.57 | 89.33 | -2.41 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 80.94 | 88.00 | -2.30 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 79.67 | 86.38 | -2.27 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 80.98 | 87.83 | -2.31 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 80.41 | 87.26 | -2.35 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 79.86 | 86.71 | -2.39 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 81.56 | 88.50 | -2.41 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 82.41 | 89.98 | -2.58 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 81.99 | 89.98 | -2.73 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 82.73 | 89.82 | -2.55 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 83.41 | 90.47 | -2.57 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 84.79 | 91.99 | -2.62 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 85.98 | 93.04 | -2.61 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 83.99 | 90.85 | -2.64 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 83.39 | 91.73 | -3.09 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 86.08 | 94.89 | -3.21 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 85.67 | 94.32 | -3.26 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 84.72 | 92.33 | -3.09 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 82.53 | 89.44 | -3.02 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 82.32 | 88.63 | -2.92 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 81.79 | 88.58 | -3.14 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 81.36 | 88.21 | -3.24 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 80.95 | 87.92 | -3.37 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 81.30 | 87.98 | -3.36 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 81.89 | 88.75 | -3.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 82.75 | 88.79 | -3.30 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 80.14 | 84.12 | -2.73 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 80.93 | 84.90 | -2.77 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 83.10 | 87.47 | -2.93 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 82.14 | 86.02 | -2.83 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 82.98 | 86.35 | -2.69 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 82.61 | 86.25 | -2.84 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-13 | 83.60 | 87.20 | -2.87 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-12 | 80.23 | 82.75 | -2.55 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-11 | 78.53 | 80.65 | -2.45 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-08 | 79.19 | 81.62 | -2.60 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-07 | 78.90 | 80.96 | -2.48 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-06 | 79.30 | 80.67 | -2.21 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 79.67 | 81.20 | -2.28 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-04 | 79.31 | 80.09 | -1.97 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-08-01 | 78.20 | 78.33 | -1.69 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-31 | 76.07 | 75.76 | -1.48 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-30 | 76.92 | 76.06 | -1.25 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 78.81 | 78.54 | -1.50 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 79.05 | 78.38 | -1.34 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 78.52 | 78.07 | -1.44 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 78.49 | 77.85 | -1.37 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 79.60 | 80.03 | -1.82 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-22 | 79.70 | 81.30 | -2.32 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 74.32 | 72.90 | -1.02 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-18 | 74.79 | 72.91 | -0.82 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-17 | 74.95 | 73.32 | -0.94 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-16 | 74.32 | 73.33 | -1.23 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-15 | 73.57 | 72.46 | -1.18 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-14 | 76.50 | 75.71 | -1.35 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-11 | 76.90 | 76.67 | -1.61 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-10 | 77.48 | 77.28 | -1.64 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-09 | 77.60 | 76.34 | -1.19 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-08 | 75.76 | 73.05 | -0.52 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-07-07 | 76.33 | 72.56 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-03 | 76.81 | 73.38 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-02 | 78.28 | 74.70 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-01 | 77.26 | 73.77 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-30 | 74.42 | 70.76 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-27 | 74.32 | 70.80 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-26 | 73.36 | 70.08 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-25 | 72.48 | 69.48 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-24 | 73.33 | 70.78 | -0.54 | PHM ahead |
| 2025-06-23 | 73.95 | 70.35 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-20 | 72.12 | 68.08 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-18 | 70.33 | 66.52 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-17 | 70.46 | 66.24 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-16 | 72.76 | 68.72 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-13 | 72.81 | 68.18 | +0.51 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-06-12 | 74.43 | 69.88 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-11 | 73.52 | 69.39 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-10 | 74.55 | 70.47 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-09 | 71.93 | 68.08 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-06 | 71.71 | 67.25 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-05 | 72.49 | 68.20 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-04 | 72.66 | 68.35 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-03 | 71.23 | 66.20 | +0.79 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-06-02 | 70.97 | 65.45 | +1.03 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-30 | 71.70 | 65.77 | +1.20 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-29 | 71.52 | 66.12 | +0.97 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-28 | 70.53 | 65.56 | +0.81 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-27 | 72.66 | 67.48 | +0.84 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-23 | 71.20 | 65.90 | +0.95 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-22 | 71.25 | 66.14 | +0.87 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-21 | 71.32 | 66.49 | +0.74 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-20 | 72.62 | 67.98 | +0.63 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-19 | 73.69 | 69.16 | +0.56 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-05-16 | 74.27 | 70.06 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-15 | 73.02 | 68.95 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-14 | 72.22 | 68.48 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-13 | 74.59 | 71.42 | +0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-12 | 74.39 | 71.48 | -0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-09 | 72.05 | 68.75 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-08 | 72.83 | 69.35 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-07 | 71.50 | 67.98 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-06 | 70.14 | 67.66 | -0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-05 | 71.30 | 69.56 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-02 | 71.78 | 70.09 | -0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-01 | 70.88 | 68.36 | -0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-30 | 71.80 | 68.83 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-29 | 71.68 | 68.26 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-28 | 70.94 | 68.72 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-25 | 71.25 | 68.36 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-24 | 72.01 | 69.01 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-23 | 71.37 | 67.81 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-22 | 72.22 | 67.69 | +0.62 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-21 | 71.88 | 62.47 | +2.69 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-17 | 72.45 | 63.71 | +2.40 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-16 | 70.99 | 62.31 | +2.48 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-15 | 72.60 | 63.60 | +2.58 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-14 | 72.96 | 64.04 | +2.57 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-11 | 72.58 | 63.43 | +2.74 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-10 | 70.52 | 62.86 | +2.20 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-09 | 71.75 | 65.20 | +1.66 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-08 | 67.51 | 61.74 | +1.48 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-07 | 71.00 | 64.51 | +1.69 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-04 | 74.67 | 67.93 | +1.67 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-03 | 71.64 | 65.59 | +1.49 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-04-02 | 73.58 | 70.00 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-01 | 72.69 | 69.14 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-31 | 73.00 | 68.97 | +0.56 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-03-28 | 72.36 | 68.26 | +0.62 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-03-27 | 73.70 | 70.48 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-26 | 73.71 | 70.60 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-25 | 73.77 | 70.67 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-24 | 74.18 | 71.02 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-21 | 72.40 | 68.92 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-20 | 73.43 | 70.68 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-19 | 73.30 | 70.53 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-18 | 72.37 | 69.44 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-17 | 72.68 | 69.71 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-14 | 72.92 | 69.07 | +0.51 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 71.85 | 67.83 | +0.61 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-03-12 | 74.06 | 69.46 | +0.81 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-03-11 | 74.17 | 71.01 | +0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-10 | 75.61 | 72.06 | +0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-07 | 74.50 | 72.40 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-06 | 75.52 | 72.64 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-05 | 74.44 | 71.10 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-04 | 72.57 | 69.04 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-03 | 72.55 | 68.46 | +0.63 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-02-28 | 73.01 | 69.30 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-27 | 72.37 | 69.06 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-26 | 72.65 | 70.08 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-25 | 73.91 | 71.28 | -0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-24 | 71.16 | 68.24 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-21 | 71.49 | 69.18 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-20 | 73.13 | 71.01 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-19 | 72.32 | 70.36 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-18 | 73.19 | 70.85 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-14 | 74.22 | 72.08 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-13 | 73.97 | 71.59 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-12 | 73.56 | 71.12 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-11 | 75.51 | 72.01 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-10 | 75.75 | 71.50 | +0.54 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-02-07 | 76.16 | 71.03 | +0.88 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-02-06 | 77.99 | 73.81 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-05 | 78.49 | 74.70 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-02-04 | 78.48 | 74.06 | +0.56 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-02-03 | 77.96 | 73.24 | +0.69 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-31 | 80.77 | 76.34 | +0.52 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-30 | 82.03 | 79.52 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-29 | 80.26 | 75.81 | +0.54 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-28 | 81.26 | 77.19 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-01-27 | 84.46 | 79.21 | +0.76 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-24 | 82.63 | 77.62 | +0.72 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-23 | 84.09 | 78.18 | +1.02 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-22 | 84.45 | 78.43 | +1.06 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-21 | 84.11 | 77.70 | +1.22 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-17 | 84.27 | 78.52 | +0.98 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-16 | 84.19 | 78.46 | +0.99 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-15 | 83.22 | 77.81 | +0.89 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-14 | 82.06 | 75.48 | +1.37 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-13 | 80.23 | 73.13 | +1.66 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-10 | 79.05 | 72.20 | +1.61 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-08 | 80.67 | 74.11 | +1.45 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-07 | 79.57 | 72.35 | +1.78 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-06 | 80.50 | 73.09 | +1.84 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-03 | 81.32 | 73.84 | +1.86 | NVR ahead |
| 2025-01-02 | 80.51 | 72.22 | +2.25 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-31 | 82.41 | 73.07 | +2.65 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-30 | 82.39 | 73.04 | +2.70 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-27 | 82.71 | 73.48 | +2.68 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-26 | 83.07 | 74.24 | +2.54 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-24 | 83.22 | 74.31 | +2.62 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-23 | 82.85 | 73.89 | +2.70 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-20 | 83.40 | 74.15 | +2.86 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-19 | 81.63 | 73.06 | +2.69 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-18 | 82.80 | 74.67 | +2.47 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-17 | 85.33 | 77.76 | +2.15 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-16 | 85.77 | 78.53 | +2.01 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-13 | 86.53 | 79.46 | +1.93 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-12 | 88.64 | 80.98 | +2.14 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-11 | 89.16 | 81.80 | +2.01 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-10 | 89.25 | 84.10 | +1.08 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-09 | 91.89 | 86.20 | +1.25 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-06 | 90.14 | 85.09 | +1.03 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-05 | 90.23 | 85.80 | +0.77 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-04 | 91.19 | 86.76 | +0.75 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-12-03 | 92.55 | 89.91 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-02 | 92.50 | 90.67 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-29 | 93.06 | 90.76 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-27 | 92.64 | 91.61 | -0.63 | PHM ahead |
| 2024-11-26 | 92.92 | 90.98 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-25 | 93.64 | 92.36 | -0.55 | PHM ahead |
| 2024-11-22 | 90.76 | 87.06 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-21 | 90.15 | 85.96 | +0.64 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-20 | 90.69 | 85.92 | +0.86 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-19 | 90.23 | 86.23 | +0.55 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-18 | 89.33 | 86.27 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-15 | 90.95 | 86.48 | +0.71 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-14 | 92.50 | 86.85 | +1.14 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-13 | 91.75 | 85.53 | +1.37 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-12 | 91.84 | 86.47 | +1.02 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-11 | 93.20 | 89.55 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-08 | 93.78 | 89.04 | +0.72 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-07 | 92.91 | 88.00 | +0.79 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-06 | 92.73 | 86.67 | +1.23 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-05 | 95.28 | 89.41 | +1.09 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-04 | 93.29 | 86.88 | +1.35 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-11-01 | 92.09 | 86.14 | +1.20 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-10-31 | 92.23 | 86.91 | +0.94 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-10-30 | 91.52 | 87.40 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-29 | 92.10 | 86.94 | +0.84 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-10-28 | 93.79 | 89.83 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-25 | 94.01 | 88.88 | +0.75 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-10-24 | 95.28 | 91.14 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-23 | 94.83 | 89.35 | +0.80 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-10-22 | 95.10 | 89.78 | +0.71 | NVR ahead |
| 2024-10-21 | 97.29 | 96.79 | -0.80 | PHM ahead |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | -0.94 | PHM ahead |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 22, 2024 (NVR -2.3%, PHM -7.2%); Apr 22, 2025 (NVR +0.5%, PHM +8.4%); Jan 9, 2026 (NVR +2.7%, PHM +7.3%); Feb 13, 2026 (NVR -7.3%, PHM +2.6%). Upcoming earnings: PHM Oct 22, 2026 (pre-market); NVR Oct 28, 2026 (not-supplied).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
5 simulated trades to Oct 20, 2026: +2.92% per trade on average after costs, 3 won.
| Legs | Entered | Exited | Why | Days | Before costs | Costs + borrow | After costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long NVR · Short PHM | Jul 23, 2025 | Aug 26, 2025 | divergence stop | 34 | -$746.44 | -$45.03 | -$797.79 (-7.98%) |
| Long PHM · Short NVR | Dec 12, 2024 | Feb 20, 2025 | converged | 70 | $350.82 | -$46.68 | $322.31 (+3.22%) |
| Long NVR · Short PHM | Jan 31, 2023 | Feb 2, 2023 | divergence stop | 2 | -$385.33 | -$65.26 | -$451.34 (-4.51%) |
| Long PHM · Short NVR | Oct 21, 2022 | Nov 14, 2022 | converged | 24 | $1,285.96 | -$84.96 | $1,208.25 (+12.08%) |
| Long NVR · Short PHM | Apr 30, 2021 | Jul 7, 2021 | converged | 68 | $1,277.90 | -$73.03 | $1,181.08 (+11.81%) |
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
NVR and PHM at a glance
NVR NVR Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 906163
- Industry
- Homebuilding · SIC 1531 Operative Builders
- Market value
- $15.5B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
PHM PulteGroup Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 822416
- Industry
- Homebuilding · SIC 1531 Operative Builders
- Market value
- $20.8B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of NVR and PHM
Follow the research behind the paper book
Boostio is a research-first platform in private beta: crypto candidates, daily market stories, public paper trading and now rival stocks. Exploring these pages stays free and open.
Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
