Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

Microsoft Corporation vs Oracle Corporation

WatchlistMSFT / ORCLPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($3962B vs $393B) in Nasdaq's "Computer Software: Prepackaged Software" industry; SEC SIC 7372 / 7372 (same major group); #1 and #3 by market value ($3962B vs $393B) with SEC SIC 7372 (Services-Prepackaged Software).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

  • Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.47 (needs >= 0.60)
  • Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.86 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
  • Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 77.92 (needs <= 63)
Business leadership

MSFT is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

YearMSFTORCLLarger
2025$281.7B$67.4BMSFT
2024$245.1B$57.4BMSFT
2023$211.9B$53.0BMSFT
2022$198.3B$50.0BMSFT
2021$168.1B$42.4BMSFT
2020$143.0B$40.5BMSFT

MSFT led in every year with figures for both. Market value: MSFT $3.96T, ORCL $392.9B.

Stock leadership

MSFT is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

MSFT leads ORCL by 2.29 standard deviations: +57.1% over its usual price ratio. 3 lead switches in the last year.

Price change3 mo6 mo12 mo
MSFT+36.5%+25.3%+0.7%
ORCL+9.2%-28.8%-54.4%
Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass
Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Fail
Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.47 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.86 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Fail
Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 77.92 (needs <= 63)
Data
Both stocks current
The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ORCL Oracle CorporationPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
100150Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026MSFT 125ORCL 72
Spread z-score: MSFT relative to ORCL, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: MSFT ahead; below 0: ORCL ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
-4stop-2idea0+2idea+4stopOct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026
Data table (504 sessions)
DateMSFT indexORCL indexzAhead
2026-10-22124.6171.86+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-10-21127.4573.92+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-10-20127.1975.07+2.22MSFT ahead
2026-10-19127.5974.18+2.31MSFT ahead
2026-10-16126.5273.40+2.34MSFT ahead
2026-10-15129.0076.98+2.22MSFT ahead
2026-10-14127.6374.73+2.33MSFT ahead
2026-10-13129.9681.97+1.97MSFT ahead
2026-10-12129.4178.65+2.18MSFT ahead
2026-10-09127.9680.94+1.99MSFT ahead
2026-10-08124.9877.67+2.11MSFT ahead
2026-10-07126.6982.18+1.90MSFT ahead
2026-10-06126.5882.87+1.87MSFT ahead
2026-10-05125.5981.56+1.93MSFT ahead
2026-10-02123.7681.46+1.88MSFT ahead
2026-10-01122.6379.04+2.00MSFT ahead
2026-09-30122.6678.60+2.05MSFT ahead
2026-09-29121.7178.88+2.01MSFT ahead
2026-09-28121.7875.91+2.24MSFT ahead
2026-09-25123.4478.48+2.15MSFT ahead
2026-09-24119.0879.88+1.88MSFT ahead
2026-09-23119.7182.75+1.74MSFT ahead
2026-09-22119.0985.41+1.55MSFT ahead
2026-09-21119.9685.04+1.63MSFT ahead
2026-09-18118.0884.50+1.59MSFT ahead
2026-09-17119.0386.20+1.53MSFT ahead
2026-09-16117.2581.95+1.73MSFT ahead
2026-09-15118.8880.34+1.92MSFT ahead
2026-09-14120.8782.88+1.86MSFT ahead
2026-09-11118.5386.03+1.57MSFT ahead
2026-09-10117.7687.55+1.46MSFT ahead
2026-09-09117.5792.52+1.18MSFT ahead
2026-09-08118.1293.03+1.19MSFT ahead
2026-09-04119.5090.89+1.38MSFT ahead
2026-09-03121.9988.18+1.66MSFT ahead
2026-09-02118.8183.43+1.83MSFT ahead
2026-09-01119.8280.90+2.05MSFT ahead
2026-08-31121.3185.36+1.86MSFT ahead
2026-08-28122.8186.35+1.89MSFT ahead
2026-08-27120.7886.98+1.78MSFT ahead
2026-08-26118.7085.22+1.81MSFT ahead
2026-08-25117.5982.87+1.94MSFT ahead
2026-08-24116.5481.54+2.00MSFT ahead
2026-08-21115.5683.85+1.82MSFT ahead
2026-08-20115.0681.33+1.99MSFT ahead
2026-08-19115.8282.32+1.98MSFT ahead
2026-08-18115.1881.74+2.02MSFT ahead
2026-08-17114.8783.95+1.87MSFT ahead
2026-08-14118.4786.16+1.92MSFT ahead
2026-08-13118.8389.43+1.75MSFT ahead
2026-08-12117.7687.74+1.83MSFT ahead
2026-08-11120.4883.28+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-08-10121.0286.47+2.13MSFT ahead
2026-08-07119.5784.16+2.24MSFT ahead
2026-08-06119.5482.13+2.42MSFT ahead
2026-08-05116.5782.65+2.27MSFT ahead
2026-08-04117.8583.43+2.31MSFT ahead
2026-08-03116.6281.20+2.45MSFT ahead
2026-07-31111.1374.34+2.75MSFT ahead
2026-07-30107.8873.02+2.72MSFT ahead
2026-07-2993.3967.40+2.36MSFT ahead
2026-07-2894.0768.67+2.32MSFT ahead
2026-07-2793.0568.64+2.29MSFT ahead
2026-07-2491.2865.83+2.47MSFT ahead
2026-07-2391.2568.72+2.22MSFT ahead
2026-07-2293.3572.04+2.08MSFT ahead
2026-07-2195.1272.73+2.17MSFT ahead
2026-07-2096.2069.48+2.60MSFT ahead
2026-07-1794.1872.36+2.21MSFT ahead
2026-07-1695.9271.10+2.50MSFT ahead
2026-07-1594.6175.84+1.98MSFT ahead
2026-07-1492.0573.24+2.06MSFT ahead
2026-07-1393.5075.30+2.00MSFT ahead
2026-07-1092.0980.51+1.42MSFT ahead
2026-07-0991.9282.56+1.24MSFT ahead
2026-07-0891.6780.42+1.42MSFT ahead
2026-07-0792.9981.06+1.48MSFT ahead
2026-07-0692.4982.29+1.34MSFT ahead
2026-07-0293.3880.30+1.61MSFT ahead
2026-07-0191.9081.57+1.39MSFT ahead
2026-06-3089.2183.89+0.97MSFT ahead
2026-06-2988.1484.58+0.82MSFT ahead
2026-06-2689.1985.02+0.87MSFT ahead
2026-06-2584.3887.27+0.28near the usual relationship
2026-06-2487.4090.18+0.29near the usual relationship
2026-06-2389.4394.54+0.11near the usual relationship
2026-06-2287.85100.22-0.45near the usual relationship
2026-06-1890.73105.50-0.59ORCL ahead
2026-06-1790.61105.06-0.57ORCL ahead
2026-06-1694.18107.81-0.48near the usual relationship
2026-06-1595.60110.28-0.54ORCL ahead
2026-06-1293.44105.40-0.38near the usual relationship
2026-06-1193.35105.39-0.39near the usual relationship
2026-06-1095.03115.21-0.92ORCL ahead
2026-06-0996.47117.81-0.98ORCL ahead
2026-06-0898.46121.25-1.05ORCL ahead
2026-06-0599.64122.32-1.04ORCL ahead
2026-06-04102.37135.29-1.58ORCL ahead
2026-06-03102.20131.85-1.42ORCL ahead
2026-06-02105.54140.01-1.64ORCL ahead
2026-06-01110.13142.05-1.44ORCL ahead
2026-05-29107.67129.25-0.93ORCL ahead
2026-05-28102.11116.61-0.57ORCL ahead
2026-05-2798.69109.31-0.36near the usual relationship
2026-05-2699.49110.52-0.39near the usual relationship
2026-05-22100.10109.95-0.31near the usual relationship
2026-05-21100.22108.63-0.23near the usual relationship
2026-05-20100.69107.71-0.14near the usual relationship
2026-05-1999.82103.88+0.05near the usual relationship
2026-05-18101.29106.82-0.05near the usual relationship
2026-05-15100.90110.45-0.32near the usual relationship
2026-05-1497.91111.98-0.62ORCL ahead
2026-05-1396.90108.63-0.49near the usual relationship
2026-05-1297.52106.95-0.35near the usual relationship
2026-05-1198.68110.96-0.52ORCL ahead
2026-05-0899.27112.17-0.56ORCL ahead
2026-05-07100.62111.39-0.43near the usual relationship
2026-05-0699.00111.07-0.53ORCL ahead
2026-05-0598.38106.10-0.27near the usual relationship
2026-05-0498.91103.21-0.05near the usual relationship
2026-05-0199.1198.36+0.28near the usual relationship
2026-04-3097.5292.39+0.58MSFT ahead
2026-04-29101.5193.78+0.74MSFT ahead
2026-04-28102.6595.00+0.73MSFT ahead
2026-04-27101.5999.01+0.38near the usual relationship
2026-04-24101.5499.19+0.36near the usual relationship
2026-04-2399.42100.91+0.11near the usual relationship
2026-04-22103.53107.33-0.04near the usual relationship
2026-04-21101.43103.71+0.05near the usual relationship
2026-04-2099.98101.65+0.08near the usual relationship
2026-04-17101.11100.21+0.24near the usual relationship
2026-04-16100.50102.09+0.07near the usual relationship
2026-04-1598.3497.21+0.24near the usual relationship
2026-04-1494.0193.31+0.21near the usual relationship
2026-04-1391.9289.08+0.36near the usual relationship
2026-04-1088.6979.05+0.88MSFT ahead
2026-04-0989.2278.92+0.93MSFT ahead
2026-04-0889.5282.24+0.69MSFT ahead
2026-04-0789.0381.96+0.67MSFT ahead
2026-04-0689.1783.31+0.58MSFT ahead
2026-04-0289.3183.79+0.55MSFT ahead
2026-04-0188.3383.14+0.53MSFT ahead
2026-03-3188.5284.21+0.46near the usual relationship
2026-03-3085.8479.46+0.63MSFT ahead
2026-03-2785.3279.95+0.55MSFT ahead
2026-03-2687.5281.75+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-03-2588.7383.59+0.52MSFT ahead
2026-03-2489.1484.20+0.50MSFT ahead
2026-03-2391.5988.35+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-03-2091.3285.68+0.54MSFT ahead
2026-03-1993.0389.03+0.42near the usual relationship
2026-03-1893.6987.53+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-03-1795.5288.55+0.62MSFT ahead
2026-03-1695.6589.28+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-03-1394.5988.79+0.54MSFT ahead
2026-03-1296.1091.11+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-03-1196.8293.38+0.37near the usual relationship
2026-03-1097.0385.52+0.94MSFT ahead
2026-03-0997.9186.76+0.90MSFT ahead
2026-03-0697.8087.56+0.84MSFT ahead
2026-03-0598.2188.61+0.80MSFT ahead
2026-03-0496.9087.22+0.81MSFT ahead
2026-03-0396.6085.30+0.94MSFT ahead
2026-03-0295.3185.44+0.85MSFT ahead
2026-02-2793.9283.23+0.93MSFT ahead
2026-02-2696.0786.04+0.86MSFT ahead
2026-02-2595.8084.66+0.95MSFT ahead
2026-02-2493.0383.66+0.85MSFT ahead
2026-02-2391.9480.89+0.99MSFT ahead
2026-02-2094.9984.77+0.91MSFT ahead
2026-02-1995.2989.61+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-02-1895.5689.40+0.61MSFT ahead
2026-02-1794.9188.14+0.66MSFT ahead
2026-02-1395.9791.67+0.48near the usual relationship
2026-02-1296.1089.58+0.64MSFT ahead
2026-02-1196.7089.97+0.66MSFT ahead
2026-02-1098.8391.53+0.69MSFT ahead
2026-02-0998.9189.64+0.83MSFT ahead
2026-02-0695.9381.76+1.23MSFT ahead
2026-02-0594.1478.13+1.41MSFT ahead
2026-02-0499.0583.96+1.28MSFT ahead
2026-02-0398.3488.54+0.90MSFT ahead
2026-02-02101.2591.63+0.87MSFT ahead
2026-01-30102.9094.21+0.79MSFT ahead
2026-01-29103.6796.75+0.66MSFT ahead
2026-01-28115.1898.92+1.20MSFT ahead
2026-01-27114.93100.12+1.12MSFT ahead
2026-01-26112.46104.44+0.70MSFT ahead
2026-01-23111.43101.41+0.84MSFT ahead
2026-01-22107.89102.00+0.59MSFT ahead
2026-01-21106.2199.54+0.64MSFT ahead
2026-01-20108.70102.99+0.57MSFT ahead
2026-01-16109.97109.39+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-01-15109.21108.68+0.25near the usual relationship
2026-01-14109.86110.83+0.15near the usual relationship
2026-01-13112.56115.80+0.02near the usual relationship
2026-01-12114.11117.17+0.03near the usual relationship
2026-01-09114.62113.64+0.26near the usual relationship
2026-01-08114.34108.56+0.53MSFT ahead
2026-01-07115.62110.39+0.50MSFT ahead
2026-01-06114.43110.91+0.40near the usual relationship
2026-01-05113.08110.25+0.36near the usual relationship
2026-01-02113.10112.03+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-12-31115.65111.57+0.43near the usual relationship
2025-12-30116.58112.89+0.40near the usual relationship
2025-12-29116.49111.84+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-12-26116.63113.34+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-12-24116.71113.05+0.40near the usual relationship
2025-12-23116.43111.82+0.45near the usual relationship
2025-12-22115.97113.56+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-12-19116.20109.89+0.55MSFT ahead
2025-12-18115.74103.06+0.93MSFT ahead
2025-12-17113.86102.16+0.88MSFT ahead
2025-12-16113.93107.99+0.53MSFT ahead
2025-12-15113.55105.86+0.64MSFT ahead
2025-12-12114.44108.75+0.52MSFT ahead
2025-12-11115.62113.83+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-12-10114.44127.66-0.51ORCL ahead
2025-12-09117.66126.81-0.29near the usual relationship
2025-12-08117.42126.25-0.28near the usual relationship
2025-12-05115.54124.55-0.30near the usual relationship
2025-12-04114.99122.69-0.23near the usual relationship
2025-12-03114.25118.91-0.07near the usual relationship
2025-12-02117.18115.12+0.30near the usual relationship
2025-12-01116.40115.03+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-11-28117.66115.60+0.30near the usual relationship
2025-11-26116.10117.33+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-11-25114.07112.79+0.27near the usual relationship
2025-11-24113.35114.65+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-11-21112.90113.78+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-11-20114.41120.61-0.14near the usual relationship
2025-11-19116.49129.10-0.46near the usual relationship
2025-11-18118.09126.22-0.23near the usual relationship
2025-11-17121.36125.86-0.04near the usual relationship
2025-11-14122.01127.57-0.09near the usual relationship
2025-11-13120.36124.55-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-11-12122.24129.94-0.19near the usual relationship
2025-11-11121.65135.18-0.48near the usual relationship
2025-11-10121.01137.86-0.64ORCL ahead
2025-11-07118.81136.96-0.72ORCL ahead
2025-11-06118.88139.56-0.84ORCL ahead
2025-11-05121.28143.29-0.89ORCL ahead
2025-11-04123.00142.06-0.75ORCL ahead
2025-11-03123.64147.60-0.97ORCL ahead
2025-10-31123.83150.33-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-10-30125.73147.05-0.85ORCL ahead
2025-10-29129.51157.59-1.11ORCL ahead
2025-10-28129.63160.76-1.25ORCL ahead
2025-10-27127.11161.09-1.40ORCL ahead
2025-10-24125.22162.19-1.56ORCL ahead
2025-10-23124.49160.32-1.53ORCL ahead
2025-10-22124.48156.08-1.37ORCL ahead
2025-10-21123.79157.51-1.48ORCL ahead
2025-10-20123.59158.67-1.55ORCL ahead
2025-10-17122.82166.76-1.95ORCL ahead
2025-10-16122.35179.17-2.49ORCL ahead
2025-10-15122.78173.81-2.30ORCL ahead
2025-10-14122.82171.16-2.22ORCL ahead
2025-10-13122.93176.32-2.46ORCL ahead
2025-10-10122.19167.70-2.18ORCL ahead
2025-10-09124.93169.99-2.14ORCL ahead
2025-10-08125.51165.22-1.93ORCL ahead
2025-10-07125.31162.71-1.85ORCL ahead
2025-10-06126.40166.92-2.00ORCL ahead
2025-10-03123.72163.80-2.04ORCL ahead
2025-10-02123.34165.31-2.16ORCL ahead
2025-10-01124.28165.44-2.14ORCL ahead
2025-09-30123.86160.99-1.98ORCL ahead
2025-09-29123.06161.86-2.10ORCL ahead
2025-09-26122.31162.26-2.20ORCL ahead
2025-09-25121.25166.77-2.51ORCL ahead
2025-09-24122.00176.58-2.97ORCL ahead
2025-09-23121.78179.65-3.20ORCL ahead
2025-09-22123.03187.85-3.58ORCL ahead
2025-09-19123.86176.69-3.09ORCL ahead
2025-09-18121.59169.80-2.97ORCL ahead
2025-09-17121.97172.54-3.15ORCL ahead
2025-09-16121.73175.54-3.41ORCL ahead
2025-09-15123.24172.96-3.24ORCL ahead
2025-09-12121.94167.26-3.11ORCL ahead
2025-09-11119.81176.23-3.86ORCL ahead
2025-09-10119.66187.95-4.68ORCL ahead
2025-09-09119.19138.25-1.72ORCL ahead
2025-09-08119.14136.52-1.61ORCL ahead
2025-09-05118.38133.26-1.45ORCL ahead
2025-09-04121.48127.65-0.78ORCL ahead
2025-09-03120.85127.91-0.86ORCL ahead
2025-09-02120.80128.97-0.95ORCL ahead
2025-08-29121.17129.45-0.96ORCL ahead
2025-08-28121.88137.57-1.50ORCL ahead
2025-08-27121.18134.99-1.38ORCL ahead
2025-08-26120.06134.07-1.42ORCL ahead
2025-08-25120.59134.76-1.43ORCL ahead
2025-08-22121.30135.31-1.42ORCL ahead
2025-08-21120.59133.47-1.36ORCL ahead
2025-08-20120.94134.56-1.42ORCL ahead
2025-08-19121.91134.31-1.33ORCL ahead
2025-08-18123.66142.58-1.77ORCL ahead
2025-08-15124.39142.13-1.70ORCL ahead
2025-08-14124.95140.23-1.54ORCL ahead
2025-08-13124.49139.78-1.55ORCL ahead
2025-08-12126.56145.32-1.77ORCL ahead
2025-08-11124.78144.64-1.88ORCL ahead
2025-08-08124.84143.14-1.79ORCL ahead
2025-08-07124.56142.76-1.80ORCL ahead
2025-08-06125.54146.79-2.00ORCL ahead
2025-08-05126.21146.36-1.94ORCL ahead
2025-08-04128.09144.56-1.70ORCL ahead
2025-08-01125.34139.92-1.61ORCL ahead
2025-07-31127.58145.27-1.81ORCL ahead
2025-07-30122.74143.45-2.07ORCL ahead
2025-07-29122.58143.10-2.09ORCL ahead
2025-07-28122.56141.80-2.02ORCL ahead
2025-07-25122.85140.32-1.92ORCL ahead
2025-07-24122.17139.01-1.89ORCL ahead
2025-07-23120.98138.47-1.97ORCL ahead
2025-07-22120.83136.30-1.84ORCL ahead
2025-07-21121.98139.41-1.98ORCL ahead
2025-07-18121.97140.51-2.07ORCL ahead
2025-07-17122.37142.40-2.19ORCL ahead
2025-07-16120.92138.13-2.04ORCL ahead
2025-07-15120.96134.50-1.79ORCL ahead
2025-07-14120.29131.25-1.62ORCL ahead
2025-07-11120.37131.98-1.68ORCL ahead
2025-07-10119.93134.52-1.91ORCL ahead
2025-07-09120.41134.99-1.92ORCL ahead
2025-07-08118.76134.24-2.01ORCL ahead
2025-07-07119.03132.96-1.92ORCL ahead
2025-07-03119.29135.85-2.12ORCL ahead
2025-07-02117.44131.65-1.99ORCL ahead
2025-07-01117.67125.34-1.52ORCL ahead
2025-06-30118.95125.15-1.41ORCL ahead
2025-06-27118.60120.35-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-06-26118.96121.83-1.17ORCL ahead
2025-06-25117.72120.63-1.18ORCL ahead
2025-06-24117.21123.23-1.43ORCL ahead
2025-06-23116.22118.52-1.16ORCL ahead
2025-06-20114.17117.45-1.25ORCL ahead
2025-06-18114.85120.71-1.46ORCL ahead
2025-06-17114.32119.17-1.39ORCL ahead
2025-06-16114.58120.84-1.51ORCL ahead
2025-06-13113.58123.20-1.78ORCL ahead
2025-06-12114.52114.41-1.03ORCL ahead
2025-06-11113.02100.97-0.02near the usual relationship
2025-06-10112.62101.60-0.12near the usual relationship
2025-06-09113.05101.41-0.08near the usual relationship
2025-06-06112.4999.62+0.03near the usual relationship
2025-06-05111.8497.97+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-06-04110.9396.23+0.19near the usual relationship
2025-06-03110.7296.82+0.11near the usual relationship
2025-06-02110.4895.35+0.21near the usual relationship
2025-05-30110.0994.76+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-05-29109.6993.25+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-05-28109.3793.79+0.24near the usual relationship
2025-05-27110.1792.68+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-05-23107.6689.28+0.49near the usual relationship
2025-05-22108.7890.05+0.50MSFT ahead
2025-05-21108.2389.98+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-05-20109.5791.77+0.39near the usual relationship
2025-05-19109.7491.38+0.42near the usual relationship
2025-05-16108.6491.87+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-05-15108.3691.25+0.32near the usual relationship
2025-05-14108.3293.28+0.14near the usual relationship
2025-05-13107.4192.89+0.10near the usual relationship
2025-05-12107.4490.00+0.33near the usual relationship
2025-05-09104.9286.06+0.48near the usual relationship
2025-05-08104.7986.04+0.47near the usual relationship
2025-05-07103.6385.51+0.42near the usual relationship
2025-05-06103.6284.55+0.50MSFT ahead
2025-05-05104.3185.46+0.46near the usual relationship
2025-05-02104.0986.28+0.37near the usual relationship
2025-05-01101.7383.28+0.45near the usual relationship
2025-04-3094.5280.55+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-04-2994.2380.59+0.12near the usual relationship
2025-04-2893.5480.22+0.09near the usual relationship
2025-04-2593.7179.28+0.18near the usual relationship
2025-04-2492.6278.72+0.14near the usual relationship
2025-04-2389.5375.22+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-04-2287.7272.84+0.29near the usual relationship
2025-04-2185.8870.31+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-04-1787.9573.63+0.22near the usual relationship
2025-04-1688.8774.28+0.23near the usual relationship
2025-04-1592.2476.67+0.26near the usual relationship
2025-04-1492.7477.07+0.25near the usual relationship
2025-04-1192.9075.76+0.38near the usual relationship
2025-04-1091.2076.34+0.19near the usual relationship
2025-04-0993.3879.96+0.03near the usual relationship
2025-04-0884.7971.27+0.15near the usual relationship
2025-04-0785.5872.79+0.07near the usual relationship
2025-04-0486.0573.43+0.04near the usual relationship
2025-04-0389.2378.56-0.17near the usual relationship
2025-04-0291.3983.50-0.42near the usual relationship
2025-04-0191.4081.25-0.25near the usual relationship
2025-03-3189.7780.03-0.27near the usual relationship
2025-03-2890.5980.64-0.27near the usual relationship
2025-03-2793.4083.45-0.30near the usual relationship
2025-03-2693.2684.61-0.40near the usual relationship
2025-03-2594.5088.12-0.59ORCL ahead
2025-03-2494.0088.65-0.67ORCL ahead
2025-03-2193.5787.14-0.59ORCL ahead
2025-03-2092.5187.42-0.69ORCL ahead
2025-03-1992.7487.27-0.67ORCL ahead
2025-03-1891.7285.55-0.62ORCL ahead
2025-03-1792.9588.16-0.73ORCL ahead
2025-03-1492.9285.45-0.54ORCL ahead
2025-03-1390.5884.53-0.64ORCL ahead
2025-03-1291.6686.38-0.71ORCL ahead
2025-03-1190.9882.53-0.47near the usual relationship
2025-03-1090.9185.17-0.68ORCL ahead
2025-03-0794.0688.82-0.74ORCL ahead
2025-03-0694.9186.40-0.51ORCL ahead
2025-03-0595.9092.48-0.88ORCL ahead
2025-03-0492.9390.14-0.93ORCL ahead
2025-03-0392.9092.75-1.12ORCL ahead
2025-02-2894.9495.06-1.14ORCL ahead
2025-02-2793.8794.32-1.17ORCL ahead
2025-02-2695.5998.73-1.36ORCL ahead
2025-02-2595.1596.48-1.25ORCL ahead
2025-02-2496.6197.29-1.22ORCL ahead
2025-02-2197.6296.06-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-02-2099.51100.75-1.27ORCL ahead
2025-02-1999.19103.91-1.49ORCL ahead
2025-02-1897.96102.93-1.52ORCL ahead
2025-02-1497.6799.70-1.35ORCL ahead
2025-02-1398.1899.52-1.32ORCL ahead
2025-02-1297.8298.59-1.30ORCL ahead
2025-02-1198.39101.43-1.45ORCL ahead
2025-02-1098.58102.42-1.51ORCL ahead
2025-02-0797.9999.87-1.40ORCL ahead
2025-02-0699.4498.66-1.24ORCL ahead
2025-02-0598.8498.27-1.27ORCL ahead
2025-02-0498.6296.11-1.15ORCL ahead
2025-02-0398.2796.51-1.21ORCL ahead
2025-01-3199.2697.35-1.21ORCL ahead
2025-01-3099.2497.53-1.23ORCL ahead
2025-01-29105.7892.75-0.52ORCL ahead
2025-01-28106.9493.88-0.54ORCL ahead
2025-01-27103.9290.61-0.50ORCL ahead
2025-01-24106.19105.10-1.30ORCL ahead
2025-01-23106.83106.74-1.37ORCL ahead
2025-01-22106.71105.46-1.31ORCL ahead
2025-01-21102.4798.79-1.17ORCL ahead
2025-01-17102.6092.18-0.73ORCL ahead
2025-01-16101.5491.33-0.75ORCL ahead
2025-01-15101.9590.62-0.68ORCL ahead
2025-01-1499.4089.48-0.76ORCL ahead
2025-01-1399.7788.11-0.65ORCL ahead
2025-01-10100.1988.44-0.66ORCL ahead
2025-01-08101.5393.39-0.92ORCL ahead
2025-01-07101.0192.75-0.91ORCL ahead
2025-01-06102.3294.85-0.98ORCL ahead
2025-01-03101.2495.21-1.08ORCL ahead
2025-01-02100.1095.04-1.14ORCL ahead
2024-12-31100.8095.39-1.13ORCL ahead
2024-12-30101.6095.55-1.10ORCL ahead
2024-12-27102.9696.72-1.11ORCL ahead
2024-12-26104.7798.28-1.11ORCL ahead
2024-12-24105.0698.12-1.09ORCL ahead
2024-12-23104.0996.82-1.07ORCL ahead
2024-12-20104.4197.12-1.08ORCL ahead
2024-12-19104.5196.62-1.05ORCL ahead
2024-12-18104.6094.69-0.93ORCL ahead
2024-12-17108.6897.15-0.85ORCL ahead
2024-12-16107.9998.02-0.96ORCL ahead
2024-12-13106.9699.26-1.10ORCL ahead
2024-12-12107.51100.36-1.15ORCL ahead
2024-12-11107.37102.23-1.28ORCL ahead
2024-12-10106.02101.75-1.34ORCL ahead
2024-12-09106.66109.02-1.75ORCL ahead
2024-12-06106.08109.73-1.85ORCL ahead
2024-12-05105.85106.61-1.70ORCL ahead
2024-12-04104.61107.73-1.86ORCL ahead
2024-12-03103.12104.69-1.79ORCL ahead
2024-12-02103.07103.85-1.76ORCL ahead
2024-11-29101.27105.81-2.02ORCL ahead
2024-11-27101.16104.59-1.97ORCL ahead
2024-11-26102.35108.98-2.19ORCL ahead
2024-11-25100.15107.61-2.29ORCL ahead
2024-11-2299.72110.07-2.51ORCL ahead
2024-11-2198.73110.16-2.63ORCL ahead
2024-11-2099.36109.19-2.57ORCL ahead
2024-11-1999.91108.13-2.50ORCL ahead
2024-11-1899.43106.32-2.46ORCL ahead
2024-11-1599.24105.18-2.43ORCL ahead
2024-11-14102.09107.08-2.39ORCL ahead
2024-11-13101.68108.55-2.56ORCL ahead
2024-11-12101.16108.52-2.65ORCL ahead
2024-11-1199.96108.27-2.77ORCL ahead
2024-11-08101.05108.33-2.75ORCL ahead
2024-11-07101.74106.69-2.62ORCL ahead
2024-11-06100.48103.75-2.54ORCL ahead
2024-11-0598.4098.33-2.32ORCL ahead
2024-11-0497.6897.08-2.31ORCL ahead
2024-11-0198.1497.33-2.32ORCL ahead
2024-10-3197.1896.08-2.33ORCL ahead
2024-10-30103.4499.93-2.17ORCL ahead
2024-10-29103.3099.28-2.16ORCL ahead
2024-10-28102.0298.70-2.24ORCL ahead
2024-10-25102.3999.33-2.30ORCL ahead
2024-10-24101.5799.82-2.45ORCL ahead
2024-10-23101.5499.09-2.42ORCL ahead
2024-10-22102.24100.35-2.52ORCL ahead
2024-10-21100.1599.47-2.66ORCL ahead
2024-10-18100.00100.00-2.77ORCL ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Jan 21, 2025 (MSFT -0.1%, ORCL +7.2%); Jan 27, 2025 (MSFT -2.1%, ORCL -13.8%); Jan 30, 2025 (MSFT -6.2%, ORCL +5.2%); Jun 12, 2025 (MSFT +1.3%, ORCL +13.3%); Sep 10, 2025 (MSFT +0.4%, ORCL +36.0%). Upcoming earnings: MSFT Oct 28, 2026 (after-hours).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

1 simulated trade to Oct 20, 2026: -7.96% per trade on average after costs, 0 won.

LegsEnteredExitedWhyDaysBefore costsCosts + borrowAfter costs
Long MSFT · Short ORCLOct 24, 2022Oct 27, 2022divergence stop3-$770.86-$24.24-$795.72 (-7.96%)

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

MSFT and ORCL at a glance

MSFT Microsoft Corporation

Listing
Nasdaq · SEC CIK 789019
Industry
Computer Software: Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 Services-Prepackaged Software
Market value
$3.96T
Price history
2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

ORCL Oracle Corporation

Listing
NYSE · SEC CIK 1341439
Industry
Computer Software: Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 Services-Prepackaged Software
Market value
$392.9B
Price history
2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

Related
All pairs →
PairStatusAhead nowIndustry
PLTR / ORCLWatchlistPLTR by 2.42 sdComputer Software: Prepackaged Software
MSFT / PLTRWatchlistPLTR by 0.90 sdComputer Software: Prepackaged Software

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.