Finance: Consumer Services

Moody's Corporation vs S&P Global Inc.

WatchlistMCO / SPGIPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($126B vs $83B) in Nasdaq's "Finance: Consumer Services" industry; SEC SIC 7320 / 7320 (same major group); #1 and #2 by market value ($126B vs $83B) with SEC SIC 7320 (Services-Consumer Credit Reporting, Collection Agencies).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.53 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

SPGI is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	MCO	SPGI	Larger
2025	$7.7B	$15.3B	SPGI
2024	$7.1B	$14.2B	SPGI
2023	$5.9B	$12.5B	SPGI
2022	$5.5B	$11.2B	SPGI
2021	$6.2B	$8.3B	SPGI
2020	$5.4B	$7.4B	SPGI

SPGI led in every year with figures for both. Market value: MCO $83.4B, SPGI $126.1B.

Stock leadership

Neither is clearly ahead

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

The gap is 0.15 standard deviations, close to the usual relationship. 0 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
MCO	+4.1%	+8.6%	+1.3%
SPGI	+6.3%	+5.2%	-4.5%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Pass: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.88 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.52 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 43.27 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

MCO Moody's Corporation SPGI S&P Global Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: MCO relative to SPGI, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: MCO ahead; below 0: SPGI ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	MCO index	SPGI index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	100.53	88.00	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2026-10-21	98.48	86.07	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-10-20	97.32	85.09	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2026-10-19	98.53	83.09	+0.84	MCO ahead
2026-10-16	99.31	83.44	+0.91	MCO ahead
2026-10-15	99.02	82.50	+1.08	MCO ahead
2026-10-14	94.74	79.35	+0.99	MCO ahead
2026-10-13	95.02	79.62	+0.99	MCO ahead
2026-10-12	96.32	80.05	+1.15	MCO ahead
2026-10-09	95.04	79.20	+1.10	MCO ahead
2026-10-08	93.91	78.21	+1.12	MCO ahead
2026-10-07	92.05	76.75	+1.11	MCO ahead
2026-10-06	92.60	76.93	+1.19	MCO ahead
2026-10-05	91.75	75.92	+1.27	MCO ahead
2026-10-02	90.36	75.02	+1.22	MCO ahead
2026-10-01	91.59	75.38	+1.39	MCO ahead
2026-09-30	92.97	76.61	+1.38	MCO ahead
2026-09-29	93.11	76.22	+1.51	MCO ahead
2026-09-28	94.19	76.89	+1.58	MCO ahead
2026-09-25	95.95	78.33	+1.59	MCO ahead
2026-09-24	95.68	78.32	+1.55	MCO ahead
2026-09-23	97.01	78.95	+1.68	MCO ahead
2026-09-22	96.07	78.16	+1.69	MCO ahead
2026-09-21	95.65	78.55	+1.53	MCO ahead
2026-09-18	95.93	78.72	+1.56	MCO ahead
2026-09-17	94.56	78.48	+1.36	MCO ahead
2026-09-16	95.26	79.00	+1.38	MCO ahead
2026-09-15	95.64	80.12	+1.21	MCO ahead
2026-09-14	97.84	81.29	+1.36	MCO ahead
2026-09-11	97.23	79.76	+1.60	MCO ahead
2026-09-10	95.68	79.71	+1.33	MCO ahead
2026-09-09	97.16	81.25	+1.27	MCO ahead
2026-09-08	98.52	83.38	+1.07	MCO ahead
2026-09-04	101.04	86.13	+0.94	MCO ahead
2026-09-03	103.24	87.51	+1.05	MCO ahead
2026-09-02	100.32	83.84	+1.30	MCO ahead
2026-09-01	101.28	85.49	+1.14	MCO ahead
2026-08-31	103.31	84.64	+1.67	MCO ahead
2026-08-28	105.42	86.01	+1.75	MCO ahead
2026-08-27	104.21	84.56	+1.86	MCO ahead
2026-08-26	105.34	84.77	+2.02	MCO ahead
2026-08-25	105.05	84.09	+2.14	MCO ahead
2026-08-24	104.69	84.56	+2.00	MCO ahead
2026-08-21	103.04	83.76	+1.90	MCO ahead
2026-08-20	102.11	83.93	+1.72	MCO ahead
2026-08-19	101.75	82.86	+1.90	MCO ahead
2026-08-18	99.45	81.19	+1.87	MCO ahead
2026-08-17	97.69	79.73	+1.89	MCO ahead
2026-08-14	99.28	81.34	+1.84	MCO ahead
2026-08-13	99.99	82.09	+1.82	MCO ahead
2026-08-12	97.83	79.65	+1.98	MCO ahead
2026-08-11	97.55	79.37	+2.01	MCO ahead
2026-08-10	97.89	79.81	+1.99	MCO ahead
2026-08-07	97.81	79.28	+2.12	MCO ahead
2026-08-06	96.86	78.70	+2.09	MCO ahead
2026-08-05	99.08	79.63	+2.31	MCO ahead
2026-08-04	99.02	80.12	+2.22	MCO ahead
2026-08-03	98.96	80.84	+2.07	MCO ahead
2026-07-31	97.94	80.00	+2.10	MCO ahead
2026-07-30	98.73	80.60	+2.14	MCO ahead
2026-07-29	98.93	81.50	+1.99	MCO ahead
2026-07-28	99.13	82.42	+1.85	MCO ahead
2026-07-27	99.49	85.42	+1.27	MCO ahead
2026-07-24	96.53	82.81	+1.29	MCO ahead
2026-07-23	96.68	81.57	+1.62	MCO ahead
2026-07-22	100.25	83.33	+1.91	MCO ahead
2026-07-21	100.47	83.76	+1.88	MCO ahead
2026-07-20	103.46	87.07	+1.72	MCO ahead
2026-07-17	104.59	87.56	+1.84	MCO ahead
2026-07-16	106.26	88.83	+1.88	MCO ahead
2026-07-15	103.28	86.32	+1.91	MCO ahead
2026-07-14	101.28	85.23	+1.80	MCO ahead
2026-07-13	101.49	85.03	+1.90	MCO ahead
2026-07-10	99.76	83.61	+1.92	MCO ahead
2026-07-09	99.71	84.09	+1.82	MCO ahead
2026-07-08	99.31	83.66	+1.86	MCO ahead
2026-07-07	102.46	86.12	+1.92	MCO ahead
2026-07-06	102.11	86.86	+1.71	MCO ahead
2026-07-02	100.42	85.43	+1.72	MCO ahead
2026-07-01	95.89	80.59	+1.98	MCO ahead
2026-06-30	92.72	77.60	+2.09	MCO ahead
2026-06-29	92.69	77.85	+2.04	MCO ahead
2026-06-26	92.13	77.77	+1.96	MCO ahead
2026-06-25	89.84	75.29	+2.13	MCO ahead
2026-06-24	92.08	76.67	+2.29	MCO ahead
2026-06-23	90.89	76.25	+2.17	MCO ahead
2026-06-22	91.58	77.63	+1.98	MCO ahead
2026-06-18	92.26	78.30	+1.97	MCO ahead
2026-06-17	93.40	79.65	+1.90	MCO ahead
2026-06-16	95.90	82.56	+1.72	MCO ahead
2026-06-15	92.96	80.81	+1.53	MCO ahead
2026-06-12	91.69	79.82	+1.51	MCO ahead
2026-06-11	90.45	78.76	+1.52	MCO ahead
2026-06-10	92.27	81.25	+1.30	MCO ahead
2026-06-09	92.11	80.95	+1.35	MCO ahead
2026-06-08	90.85	79.48	+1.46	MCO ahead
2026-06-05	92.40	80.88	+1.46	MCO ahead
2026-06-04	91.95	80.05	+1.59	MCO ahead
2026-06-03	91.80	78.56	+1.97	MCO ahead
2026-06-02	92.86	79.55	+1.98	MCO ahead
2026-06-01	95.03	81.66	+1.93	MCO ahead
2026-05-29	92.79	80.79	+1.67	MCO ahead
2026-05-28	92.22	79.59	+1.87	MCO ahead
2026-05-27	92.45	79.23	+2.04	MCO ahead
2026-05-26	92.35	78.60	+2.22	MCO ahead
2026-05-22	91.95	79.57	+1.88	MCO ahead
2026-05-21	91.18	79.22	+1.81	MCO ahead
2026-05-20	90.95	79.46	+1.71	MCO ahead
2026-05-19	88.95	78.20	+1.58	MCO ahead
2026-05-18	90.78	79.54	+1.68	MCO ahead
2026-05-15	87.81	76.82	+1.73	MCO ahead
2026-05-14	88.58	76.97	+1.90	MCO ahead
2026-05-13	89.74	77.47	+2.07	MCO ahead
2026-05-12	92.48	80.83	+1.81	MCO ahead
2026-05-11	91.80	80.22	+1.83	MCO ahead
2026-05-08	92.40	80.05	+2.05	MCO ahead
2026-05-07	93.58	81.68	+1.90	MCO ahead
2026-05-06	91.85	80.71	+1.76	MCO ahead
2026-05-05	93.06	80.77	+2.07	MCO ahead
2026-05-04	92.04	80.94	+1.78	MCO ahead
2026-05-01	93.31	81.19	+2.04	MCO ahead
2026-04-30	94.55	82.17	+2.09	MCO ahead
2026-04-29	94.20	82.54	+1.92	MCO ahead
2026-04-28	93.76	82.60	+1.82	MCO ahead
2026-04-27	94.33	83.31	+1.77	MCO ahead
2026-04-24	93.36	83.23	+1.57	MCO ahead
2026-04-23	92.61	83.66	+1.28	MCO ahead
2026-04-22	95.55	85.57	+1.49	MCO ahead
2026-04-21	94.09	84.73	+1.37	MCO ahead
2026-04-20	94.16	84.36	+1.50	MCO ahead
2026-04-17	93.22	84.33	+1.29	MCO ahead
2026-04-16	91.80	83.23	+1.25	MCO ahead
2026-04-15	91.47	82.05	+1.51	MCO ahead
2026-04-14	89.68	81.03	+1.35	MCO ahead
2026-04-13	90.00	81.95	+1.18	MCO ahead
2026-04-10	87.50	79.16	+1.34	MCO ahead
2026-04-09	89.71	80.85	+1.44	MCO ahead
2026-04-08	91.64	83.26	+1.26	MCO ahead
2026-04-07	89.67	81.95	+1.13	MCO ahead
2026-04-06	90.92	82.72	+1.24	MCO ahead
2026-04-02	90.24	82.16	+1.24	MCO ahead
2026-04-01	89.83	81.02	+1.47	MCO ahead
2026-03-31	89.31	81.05	+1.34	MCO ahead
2026-03-30	88.45	79.57	+1.55	MCO ahead
2026-03-27	86.98	77.41	+1.82	MCO ahead
2026-03-26	88.50	78.59	+1.89	MCO ahead
2026-03-25	87.63	77.84	+1.91	MCO ahead
2026-03-24	87.72	78.35	+1.79	MCO ahead
2026-03-23	90.30	81.72	+1.50	MCO ahead
2026-03-20	89.08	80.87	+1.44	MCO ahead
2026-03-19	89.22	81.20	+1.39	MCO ahead
2026-03-18	89.81	81.30	+1.53	MCO ahead
2026-03-17	90.29	82.50	+1.32	MCO ahead
2026-03-16	88.58	81.29	+1.23	MCO ahead
2026-03-13	88.03	80.50	+1.32	MCO ahead
2026-03-12	87.31	79.97	+1.29	MCO ahead
2026-03-11	91.29	81.74	+1.86	MCO ahead
2026-03-10	92.58	82.97	+1.85	MCO ahead
2026-03-09	94.72	84.85	+1.89	MCO ahead
2026-03-06	96.62	86.20	+2.01	MCO ahead
2026-03-05	96.23	85.96	+2.00	MCO ahead
2026-03-04	96.43	84.89	+2.39	MCO ahead
2026-03-03	95.05	84.60	+2.15	MCO ahead
2026-03-02	95.42	84.43	+2.33	MCO ahead
2026-02-27	97.77	84.20	+3.08	MCO ahead
2026-02-26	98.16	83.36	+3.54	MCO ahead
2026-02-25	94.86	80.72	+3.59	MCO ahead
2026-02-24	92.65	79.70	+3.38	MCO ahead
2026-02-23	89.49	77.13	+3.42	MCO ahead
2026-02-20	91.68	79.55	+3.31	MCO ahead
2026-02-19	91.98	79.40	+3.56	MCO ahead
2026-02-18	92.28	79.91	+3.57	MCO ahead
2026-02-17	86.64	78.21	+2.35	MCO ahead
2026-02-13	87.30	78.04	+2.69	MCO ahead
2026-02-12	84.98	75.69	+2.86	MCO ahead
2026-02-11	84.39	74.46	+3.23	MCO ahead
2026-02-10	85.77	76.43	+2.97	MCO ahead
2026-02-09	92.02	84.64	+1.96	MCO ahead
2026-02-06	92.64	83.70	+2.58	MCO ahead
2026-02-05	93.70	86.07	+2.06	MCO ahead
2026-02-04	94.42	88.70	+1.32	MCO ahead
2026-02-03	96.44	89.22	+1.85	MCO ahead
2026-02-02	105.85	100.54	+0.97	MCO ahead
2026-01-30	105.55	100.57	+0.87	MCO ahead
2026-01-29	105.53	100.73	+0.81	MCO ahead
2026-01-28	105.77	100.63	+0.93	MCO ahead
2026-01-27	106.23	100.36	+1.18	MCO ahead
2026-01-26	107.57	101.99	+1.06	MCO ahead
2026-01-23	107.28	101.68	+1.08	MCO ahead
2026-01-22	108.55	102.86	+1.10	MCO ahead
2026-01-21	107.44	101.21	+1.31	MCO ahead
2026-01-20	105.90	98.90	+1.62	MCO ahead
2026-01-16	110.33	104.11	+1.27	MCO ahead
2026-01-15	110.47	103.93	+1.39	MCO ahead
2026-01-14	109.73	103.85	+1.19	MCO ahead
2026-01-13	109.51	103.31	+1.31	MCO ahead
2026-01-12	109.55	103.75	+1.18	MCO ahead
2026-01-09	108.83	103.27	+1.12	MCO ahead
2026-01-08	108.74	103.19	+1.12	MCO ahead
2026-01-07	108.80	102.42	+1.42	MCO ahead
2026-01-06	109.10	102.83	+1.38	MCO ahead
2026-01-05	107.87	101.54	+1.44	MCO ahead
2026-01-02	102.15	97.69	+0.88	MCO ahead
2025-12-31	104.58	99.58	+1.04	MCO ahead
2025-12-30	105.59	100.55	+1.04	MCO ahead
2025-12-29	106.26	101.01	+1.12	MCO ahead
2025-12-26	106.47	100.89	+1.24	MCO ahead
2025-12-24	105.90	100.18	+1.31	MCO ahead
2025-12-23	105.51	100.06	+1.22	MCO ahead
2025-12-22	104.34	99.45	+1.05	MCO ahead
2025-12-19	102.99	97.68	+1.23	MCO ahead
2025-12-18	101.89	96.55	+1.27	MCO ahead
2025-12-17	102.16	97.29	+1.09	MCO ahead
2025-12-16	100.93	95.25	+1.43	MCO ahead
2025-12-15	99.80	95.20	+1.04	MCO ahead
2025-12-12	99.62	95.47	+0.87	MCO ahead
2025-12-11	99.40	94.81	+1.05	MCO ahead
2025-12-10	98.27	93.62	+1.10	MCO ahead
2025-12-09	99.57	93.51	+1.64	MCO ahead
2025-12-08	99.73	93.77	+1.61	MCO ahead
2025-12-05	101.65	94.99	+1.86	MCO ahead
2025-12-04	100.21	94.70	+1.45	MCO ahead
2025-12-03	100.73	95.25	+1.43	MCO ahead
2025-12-02	99.87	93.60	+1.79	MCO ahead
2025-12-01	99.75	94.37	+1.44	MCO ahead
2025-11-28	100.47	95.05	+1.45	MCO ahead
2025-11-26	99.73	94.44	+1.43	MCO ahead
2025-11-25	99.43	94.17	+1.43	MCO ahead
2025-11-24	98.01	93.22	+1.28	MCO ahead
2025-11-21	98.20	94.05	+1.02	MCO ahead
2025-11-20	97.15	93.54	+0.82	MCO ahead
2025-11-19	96.81	93.52	+0.69	MCO ahead
2025-11-18	96.25	93.42	+0.51	MCO ahead
2025-11-17	96.65	93.17	+0.79	MCO ahead
2025-11-14	98.16	94.11	+1.00	MCO ahead
2025-11-13	100.47	95.84	+1.21	MCO ahead
2025-11-12	100.49	94.48	+1.79	MCO ahead
2025-11-11	100.93	94.84	+1.84	MCO ahead
2025-11-10	99.28	94.10	+1.51	MCO ahead
2025-11-07	99.90	94.59	+1.56	MCO ahead
2025-11-06	98.72	93.37	+1.62	MCO ahead
2025-11-05	99.59	94.72	+1.41	MCO ahead
2025-11-04	99.80	95.12	+1.33	MCO ahead
2025-11-03	99.49	94.71	+1.39	MCO ahead
2025-10-31	98.33	92.84	+1.74	MCO ahead
2025-10-30	98.06	93.67	+1.27	MCO ahead
2025-10-29	96.57	90.14	+2.25	MCO ahead
2025-10-28	100.47	94.07	+2.15	MCO ahead
2025-10-27	101.36	94.63	+2.30	MCO ahead
2025-10-24	100.48	93.26	+2.59	MCO ahead
2025-10-23	98.12	91.98	+2.20	MCO ahead
2025-10-22	96.79	91.41	+1.90	MCO ahead
2025-10-21	99.28	92.19	+2.68	MCO ahead
2025-10-20	97.13	91.00	+2.32	MCO ahead
2025-10-17	96.43	90.17	+2.45	MCO ahead
2025-10-16	95.93	89.95	+2.35	MCO ahead
2025-10-15	97.96	92.01	+2.31	MCO ahead
2025-10-14	98.52	92.74	+2.24	MCO ahead
2025-10-13	96.98	91.34	+2.24	MCO ahead
2025-10-10	99.11	92.63	+2.62	MCO ahead
2025-10-09	100.82	92.91	+3.34	MCO ahead
2025-10-08	100.33	91.93	+3.70	MCO ahead
2025-10-07	99.99	91.70	+3.76	MCO ahead
2025-10-06	98.97	91.15	+3.66	MCO ahead
2025-10-03	99.30	91.43	+3.78	MCO ahead
2025-10-02	98.71	90.82	+3.94	MCO ahead
2025-10-01	98.23	91.78	+3.21	MCO ahead
2025-09-30	97.55	92.74	+2.32	MCO ahead
2025-09-29	98.44	93.62	+2.33	MCO ahead
2025-09-26	97.60	92.83	+2.36	MCO ahead
2025-09-25	96.77	92.40	+2.18	MCO ahead
2025-09-24	97.20	93.51	+1.78	MCO ahead
2025-09-23	97.61	94.66	+1.34	MCO ahead
2025-09-22	99.97	96.34	+1.71	MCO ahead
2025-09-19	98.42	96.64	+0.66	MCO ahead
2025-09-18	98.74	96.76	+0.78	MCO ahead
2025-09-17	104.77	103.68	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-09-16	104.00	103.14	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-09-15	104.16	103.66	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-09-12	104.88	103.70	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2025-09-11	106.19	104.97	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-09-10	103.61	102.88	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-09-09	103.99	104.37	-0.54	SPGI ahead
2025-09-08	103.92	104.01	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-09-05	102.16	102.53	-0.54	SPGI ahead
2025-09-04	102.31	102.95	-0.70	SPGI ahead
2025-09-03	101.63	102.75	-0.97	SPGI ahead
2025-09-02	102.06	102.83	-0.79	SPGI ahead
2025-08-29	104.36	104.50	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-08-28	104.29	104.33	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-08-27	104.42	104.78	-0.57	SPGI ahead
2025-08-26	104.69	105.24	-0.68	SPGI ahead
2025-08-25	104.41	105.12	-0.77	SPGI ahead
2025-08-22	105.64	106.07	-0.63	SPGI ahead
2025-08-21	104.30	105.27	-0.92	SPGI ahead
2025-08-20	105.42	106.14	-0.79	SPGI ahead
2025-08-19	104.82	105.65	-0.85	SPGI ahead
2025-08-18	104.25	105.03	-0.84	SPGI ahead
2025-08-15	105.73	106.03	-0.59	SPGI ahead
2025-08-14	106.73	107.50	-0.84	SPGI ahead
2025-08-13	106.69	107.20	-0.71	SPGI ahead
2025-08-12	105.65	106.53	-0.91	SPGI ahead
2025-08-11	104.75	105.92	-1.07	SPGI ahead
2025-08-08	105.49	106.11	-0.78	SPGI ahead
2025-08-07	105.24	106.54	-1.15	SPGI ahead
2025-08-06	105.94	107.20	-1.13	SPGI ahead
2025-08-05	105.61	107.28	-1.36	SPGI ahead
2025-08-04	106.43	107.28	-0.93	SPGI ahead
2025-08-01	102.62	103.97	-1.22	SPGI ahead
2025-07-31	105.58	105.01	-0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-07-30	104.95	100.86	+1.76	MCO ahead
2025-07-29	104.51	101.14	+1.38	MCO ahead
2025-07-28	103.90	101.07	+1.10	MCO ahead
2025-07-25	105.01	101.93	+1.23	MCO ahead
2025-07-24	105.04	101.15	+1.68	MCO ahead
2025-07-23	103.98	100.16	+1.68	MCO ahead
2025-07-22	102.18	98.67	+1.56	MCO ahead
2025-07-21	102.40	99.49	+1.22	MCO ahead
2025-07-18	102.34	99.92	+0.96	MCO ahead
2025-07-17	102.86	100.11	+1.15	MCO ahead
2025-07-16	102.41	99.92	+1.01	MCO ahead
2025-07-15	101.40	99.52	+0.68	MCO ahead
2025-07-14	103.06	101.01	+0.76	MCO ahead
2025-07-11	102.27	100.43	+0.65	MCO ahead
2025-07-10	103.53	100.96	+1.06	MCO ahead
2025-07-09	102.82	100.75	+0.78	MCO ahead
2025-07-08	102.16	100.30	+0.67	MCO ahead
2025-07-07	102.85	101.03	+0.64	MCO ahead
2025-07-03	103.40	100.92	+1.01	MCO ahead
2025-07-02	101.77	100.16	+0.54	MCO ahead
2025-07-01	102.87	100.86	+0.75	MCO ahead
2025-06-30	102.69	100.47	+0.88	MCO ahead
2025-06-27	99.91	98.65	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-06-26	98.58	98.14	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-06-25	98.61	99.33	-0.79	SPGI ahead
2025-06-24	100.11	99.65	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-06-23	97.50	98.05	-0.71	SPGI ahead
2025-06-20	96.22	96.07	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-06-18	96.33	95.78	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2025-06-17	96.47	95.48	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-06-16	97.64	96.23	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-06-13	96.61	95.56	+0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-06-12	98.47	96.39	+0.81	MCO ahead
2025-06-11	98.99	97.94	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-06-10	99.30	97.93	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-06-09	99.40	98.13	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-06-06	100.10	98.96	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-06-05	99.81	98.28	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-06-04	99.40	97.93	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-06-03	98.69	97.62	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-06-02	98.25	97.86	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-05-30	98.13	97.72	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-05-29	98.60	97.96	-0.02	near the usual relationship
2025-05-28	97.96	97.46	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-05-27	98.52	98.46	-0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-05-23	96.15	97.18	-0.99	SPGI ahead
2025-05-22	96.58	97.43	-0.89	SPGI ahead
2025-05-21	96.79	97.23	-0.66	SPGI ahead
2025-05-20	99.70	99.65	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-05-19	100.75	99.90	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-05-16	100.09	99.55	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-05-15	99.77	98.95	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-05-14	98.07	97.55	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-05-13	99.23	98.24	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-05-12	99.71	98.77	+0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-05-09	96.36	96.75	-0.61	SPGI ahead
2025-05-08	96.56	96.72	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-05-07	95.78	96.36	-0.70	SPGI ahead
2025-05-06	94.77	95.62	-0.85	SPGI ahead
2025-05-05	95.13	96.40	-1.07	SPGI ahead
2025-05-02	95.15	96.54	-1.12	SPGI ahead
2025-05-01	92.51	95.07	-1.81	SPGI ahead
2025-04-30	92.77	95.28	-1.77	SPGI ahead
2025-04-29	91.51	93.70	-1.60	SPGI ahead
2025-04-28	90.03	91.34	-1.11	SPGI ahead
2025-04-25	89.80	91.46	-1.33	SPGI ahead
2025-04-24	89.99	91.70	-1.35	SPGI ahead
2025-04-23	88.19	89.60	-1.19	SPGI ahead
2025-04-22	88.01	88.88	-0.86	SPGI ahead
2025-04-21	84.61	85.55	-0.92	SPGI ahead
2025-04-17	86.98	88.20	-1.06	SPGI ahead
2025-04-16	87.15	88.41	-1.08	SPGI ahead
2025-04-15	89.07	89.69	-0.69	SPGI ahead
2025-04-14	89.60	89.86	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-04-11	87.71	88.63	-0.85	SPGI ahead
2025-04-10	86.60	87.23	-0.68	SPGI ahead
2025-04-09	89.79	90.32	-0.60	SPGI ahead
2025-04-08	81.21	84.13	-2.13	SPGI ahead
2025-04-07	81.48	83.52	-1.59	SPGI ahead
2025-04-04	82.39	86.03	-2.59	SPGI ahead
2025-04-03	90.57	93.25	-1.86	SPGI ahead
2025-04-02	96.40	97.94	-1.16	SPGI ahead
2025-04-01	95.97	97.33	-1.07	SPGI ahead
2025-03-31	95.34	96.82	-1.14	SPGI ahead
2025-03-28	94.46	95.75	-1.06	SPGI ahead
2025-03-27	96.01	96.92	-0.83	SPGI ahead
2025-03-26	96.24	96.76	-0.62	SPGI ahead
2025-03-25	97.70	97.78	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-03-24	96.05	96.03	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-03-21	94.07	94.87	-0.77	SPGI ahead
2025-03-20	94.13	94.74	-0.66	SPGI ahead
2025-03-19	94.24	94.36	-0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-03-18	92.15	93.44	-1.04	SPGI ahead
2025-03-17	92.86	94.18	-1.04	SPGI ahead
2025-03-14	91.48	92.70	-0.99	SPGI ahead
2025-03-13	89.63	91.43	-1.33	SPGI ahead
2025-03-12	90.51	91.13	-0.64	SPGI ahead
2025-03-11	90.87	91.46	-0.63	SPGI ahead
2025-03-10	92.19	93.06	-0.77	SPGI ahead
2025-03-07	94.48	94.70	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-03-06	96.27	97.98	-1.17	SPGI ahead
2025-03-05	98.71	99.64	-0.73	SPGI ahead
2025-03-04	98.53	98.48	-0.22	near the usual relationship
2025-03-03	102.77	100.86	+0.68	MCO ahead
2025-02-28	103.17	101.70	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-02-27	100.90	100.11	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-02-26	102.02	100.85	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-02-25	102.75	101.63	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-02-24	102.56	101.60	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-02-21	102.42	101.64	+0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-02-20	104.74	102.03	+1.02	MCO ahead
2025-02-19	106.31	103.41	+1.09	MCO ahead
2025-02-18	106.37	103.61	+1.03	MCO ahead
2025-02-14	107.04	102.84	+1.62	MCO ahead
2025-02-13	107.99	103.34	+1.80	MCO ahead
2025-02-12	103.48	101.28	+0.85	MCO ahead
2025-02-11	104.94	102.99	+0.74	MCO ahead
2025-02-10	103.23	98.19	+2.08	MCO ahead
2025-02-07	103.04	98.92	+1.69	MCO ahead
2025-02-06	102.94	98.91	+1.67	MCO ahead
2025-02-05	101.51	97.99	+1.47	MCO ahead
2025-02-04	100.96	97.88	+1.30	MCO ahead
2025-02-03	101.64	98.78	+1.20	MCO ahead
2025-01-31	102.25	99.35	+1.21	MCO ahead
2025-01-30	102.20	99.76	+1.03	MCO ahead
2025-01-29	100.38	98.56	+0.80	MCO ahead
2025-01-28	100.93	99.17	+0.78	MCO ahead
2025-01-27	101.56	99.23	+1.00	MCO ahead
2025-01-24	100.24	97.89	+1.02	MCO ahead
2025-01-23	99.52	97.85	+0.77	MCO ahead
2025-01-22	99.22	97.36	+0.85	MCO ahead
2025-01-21	99.24	97.19	+0.93	MCO ahead
2025-01-17	97.42	95.63	+0.85	MCO ahead
2025-01-16	98.06	96.26	+0.85	MCO ahead
2025-01-15	96.50	94.61	+0.90	MCO ahead
2025-01-14	94.70	92.32	+1.12	MCO ahead
2025-01-13	93.74	91.96	+0.89	MCO ahead
2025-01-10	92.70	91.98	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-01-08	96.65	94.49	+1.02	MCO ahead
2025-01-07	94.99	93.63	+0.74	MCO ahead
2025-01-06	96.86	94.17	+1.22	MCO ahead
2025-01-03	98.09	95.19	+1.29	MCO ahead
2025-01-02	96.80	94.42	+1.13	MCO ahead
2024-12-31	96.91	94.90	+1.00	MCO ahead
2024-12-30	96.94	94.90	+1.02	MCO ahead
2024-12-27	97.60	95.62	+1.00	MCO ahead
2024-12-26	98.51	96.19	+1.12	MCO ahead
2024-12-24	98.35	96.18	+1.07	MCO ahead
2024-12-23	96.99	94.94	+1.05	MCO ahead
2024-12-20	95.47	93.71	+0.96	MCO ahead
2024-12-19	94.60	92.71	+1.03	MCO ahead
2024-12-18	96.24	93.39	+1.37	MCO ahead
2024-12-17	99.42	95.37	+1.79	MCO ahead
2024-12-16	100.15	95.82	+1.90	MCO ahead
2024-12-13	100.11	96.37	+1.71	MCO ahead
2024-12-12	101.29	97.73	+1.64	MCO ahead
2024-12-11	101.86	98.37	+1.62	MCO ahead
2024-12-10	100.61	97.59	+1.49	MCO ahead
2024-12-09	100.42	97.82	+1.35	MCO ahead
2024-12-06	101.29	98.47	+1.43	MCO ahead
2024-12-05	100.55	97.92	+1.38	MCO ahead
2024-12-04	101.99	99.13	+1.46	MCO ahead
2024-12-03	101.07	98.74	+1.29	MCO ahead
2024-12-02	101.83	99.63	+1.25	MCO ahead
2024-11-29	102.36	99.56	+1.46	MCO ahead
2024-11-27	102.54	99.63	+1.51	MCO ahead
2024-11-26	102.29	99.46	+1.50	MCO ahead
2024-11-25	101.14	99.18	+1.21	MCO ahead
2024-11-22	98.40	98.03	+0.67	MCO ahead
2024-11-21	97.84	97.44	+0.68	MCO ahead
2024-11-20	97.16	95.87	+1.01	MCO ahead
2024-11-19	95.97	95.71	+0.65	MCO ahead
2024-11-18	96.62	95.85	+0.84	MCO ahead
2024-11-15	96.90	95.90	+0.92	MCO ahead
2024-11-14	98.70	97.30	+1.06	MCO ahead
2024-11-13	98.15	97.24	+0.91	MCO ahead
2024-11-12	97.34	95.94	+1.09	MCO ahead
2024-11-11	97.95	96.66	+1.05	MCO ahead
2024-11-08	97.69	95.81	+1.27	MCO ahead
2024-11-07	95.31	94.72	+0.83	MCO ahead
2024-11-06	94.41	93.37	+1.00	MCO ahead
2024-11-05	94.62	93.31	+1.11	MCO ahead
2024-11-04	93.85	92.56	+1.11	MCO ahead
2024-11-01	93.43	92.09	+1.14	MCO ahead
2024-10-31	92.95	91.53	+1.18	MCO ahead
2024-10-30	93.96	92.60	+1.16	MCO ahead
2024-10-29	94.28	92.75	+1.23	MCO ahead
2024-10-28	94.61	92.84	+1.33	MCO ahead
2024-10-25	94.75	93.49	+1.15	MCO ahead
2024-10-24	95.59	93.98	+1.28	MCO ahead
2024-10-23	95.99	97.36	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2024-10-22	95.76	97.85	+0.00	near the usual relationship
2024-10-21	99.69	99.69	+0.73	MCO ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	+0.73	MCO ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Jul 31, 2025 (MCO +0.6%, SPGI +4.1%); Feb 18, 2026 (MCO +6.5%, SPGI +2.2%). Upcoming earnings: SPGI Oct 27, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

9 simulated trades to Oct 20, 2026: +0.86% per trade on average after costs, 5 won.

Legs	Entered	Exited	Why	Days	Before costs	Costs + borrow	After costs
Long SPGI · Short MCO	Sep 26, 2025	Oct 3, 2025	divergence stop	7	-$412.70	-$34.41	-$447.15 (-4.47%)
Long MCO · Short SPGI	Apr 7, 2025	May 13, 2025	converged	36	$672.80	-$42.17	$630.40 (+6.30%)
Long SPGI · Short MCO	Mar 26, 2024	May 15, 2024	divergence stop	50	-$154.06	-$40.53	-$193.96 (-1.94%)
Long SPGI · Short MCO	Mar 5, 2024	Mar 25, 2024	divergence stop	20	-$303.40	-$36.59	-$339.77 (-3.40%)
Long SPGI · Short MCO	Jan 19, 2023	Feb 9, 2024	divergence stop	386	-$636.90	-$102.66	-$740.62 (-7.41%)
Long SPGI · Short MCO	Nov 14, 2022	Dec 9, 2022	converged	25	$644.54	-$36.29	$608.71 (+6.09%)
Long MCO · Short SPGI	Aug 25, 2022	Nov 2, 2022	converged	69	$354.97	-$40.94	$312.87 (+3.13%)
Long SPGI · Short MCO	Apr 25, 2019	Jun 4, 2019	converged	40	$486.42	-$48.08	$438.18 (+4.38%)
Long MCO · Short SPGI	Dec 24, 2018	Feb 22, 2019	converged	60	$559.01	-$57.73	$501.35 (+5.01%)

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

MCO and SPGI at a glance

MCO Moody's Corporation

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1059556
Industry: Finance: Consumer Services · SIC 7320 Services-Consumer Credit Reporting, Collection Agencies
Market value: $83.4B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

SPGI S&P Global Inc.

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 64040
Industry: Finance: Consumer Services · SIC 7320 Services-Consumer Credit Reporting, Collection Agencies
Market value: $126.1B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
MCO / EFX	Watchlist	neither	SIC 7320 Services-Consumer Credit Reporting, Collection Agencies
SPGI / EFX	Watchlist	neither	SIC 7320 Services-Consumer Credit Reporting, Collection Agencies

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.