Property-Casualty Insurers

Chubb Limited vs The Progressive Corporation

WatchlistCB / PGRPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($137B vs $127B) in Nasdaq's "Property-Casualty Insurers" industry; SEC SIC 6331 / 6331 (same major group); #1 and #2 by market value ($137B vs $127B) with SEC SIC 6331 (Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.59 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.64 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

PGR is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	CB	PGR	Larger
2025	$59.4B	$87.7B	PGR
2024	$55.8B	$75.4B	PGR
2023	$49.7B	$62.1B	PGR
2022	$43.1B	$49.6B	PGR
2021	$40.9B	$47.7B	PGR
2020	$36.0B	$42.7B	PGR

PGR led in every year with figures for both. Market value: CB $137.4B, PGR $127.4B.

Stock leadership

CB is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

CB leads PGR by 0.40 standard deviations: +3.3% over its usual price ratio. 0 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
CB	+1.2%	+9.3%	+35.2%
PGR	+7.4%	+11.8%	+3.6%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.59 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.64 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 22.08 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

CB Chubb Limited PGR The Progressive CorporationPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: CB relative to PGR, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: CB ahead; below 0: PGR ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	CB index	PGR index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	120.65	91.44	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2026-10-21	117.67	88.15	+0.55	CB ahead
2026-10-20	118.59	88.38	+0.62	CB ahead
2026-10-19	118.10	87.25	+0.72	CB ahead
2026-10-16	119.27	87.01	+0.88	CB ahead
2026-10-15	116.95	85.12	+0.90	CB ahead
2026-10-14	116.07	85.00	+0.84	CB ahead
2026-10-13	114.75	88.75	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2026-10-12	114.39	87.72	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2026-10-09	113.11	86.58	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-10-08	113.96	87.10	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-10-07	110.95	85.27	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2026-10-06	110.79	84.44	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-10-05	109.56	84.67	+0.29	near the usual relationship
2026-10-02	109.69	83.75	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-10-01	109.83	84.01	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2026-09-30	107.82	82.55	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2026-09-29	110.08	83.83	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-09-28	109.85	83.41	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-09-25	110.51	81.83	+0.74	CB ahead
2026-09-24	111.00	80.51	+0.94	CB ahead
2026-09-23	111.12	80.89	+0.91	CB ahead
2026-09-22	111.31	82.41	+0.75	CB ahead
2026-09-21	111.80	84.52	+0.57	CB ahead
2026-09-18	112.92	85.01	+0.61	CB ahead
2026-09-17	113.34	86.13	+0.53	CB ahead
2026-09-16	113.22	86.41	+0.50	CB ahead
2026-09-15	113.33	88.13	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-09-14	113.32	88.01	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-09-11	112.13	86.66	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2026-09-10	112.27	86.09	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-09-09	111.92	85.82	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-09-08	111.60	85.58	+0.50	CB ahead
2026-09-04	113.24	87.19	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-09-03	115.44	89.15	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-09-02	112.52	88.16	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2026-09-01	112.29	87.82	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-08-31	112.25	86.84	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-08-28	112.68	87.07	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-08-27	112.15	86.67	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-08-26	113.96	88.61	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2026-08-25	113.74	88.44	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2026-08-24	114.64	89.17	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-08-21	113.04	87.32	+0.50	CB ahead
2026-08-20	113.66	87.74	+0.52	CB ahead
2026-08-19	113.01	86.52	+0.58	CB ahead
2026-08-18	114.46	82.52	+1.03	CB ahead
2026-08-17	112.99	81.17	+1.06	CB ahead
2026-08-14	113.92	83.47	+0.92	CB ahead
2026-08-13	114.20	83.18	+0.97	CB ahead
2026-08-12	113.81	82.58	+1.01	CB ahead
2026-08-11	115.05	84.56	+0.92	CB ahead
2026-08-10	115.46	85.20	+0.90	CB ahead
2026-08-07	116.13	85.75	+0.90	CB ahead
2026-08-06	117.36	85.75	+0.98	CB ahead
2026-08-05	116.87	84.72	+1.04	CB ahead
2026-08-04	115.46	83.92	+1.03	CB ahead
2026-08-03	115.44	83.81	+1.05	CB ahead
2026-07-31	116.25	84.19	+1.07	CB ahead
2026-07-30	116.07	84.93	+1.01	CB ahead
2026-07-29	119.97	87.60	+1.03	CB ahead
2026-07-28	120.50	87.42	+1.08	CB ahead
2026-07-27	118.98	85.92	+1.12	CB ahead
2026-07-24	119.26	85.15	+1.20	CB ahead
2026-07-23	117.10	82.46	+1.31	CB ahead
2026-07-22	113.78	81.45	+1.20	CB ahead
2026-07-21	117.62	81.99	+1.39	CB ahead
2026-07-20	116.86	84.51	+1.15	CB ahead
2026-07-17	116.74	82.81	+1.29	CB ahead
2026-07-16	113.94	81.95	+1.21	CB ahead
2026-07-15	111.86	81.72	+1.11	CB ahead
2026-07-14	114.77	90.23	+0.63	CB ahead
2026-07-13	117.60	93.37	+0.57	CB ahead
2026-07-10	115.31	91.88	+0.55	CB ahead
2026-07-09	115.30	91.40	+0.59	CB ahead
2026-07-08	117.71	92.74	+0.64	CB ahead
2026-07-07	119.11	93.34	+0.68	CB ahead
2026-07-06	118.19	92.25	+0.71	CB ahead
2026-07-02	119.73	92.47	+0.79	CB ahead
2026-07-01	116.60	89.72	+0.82	CB ahead
2026-06-30	112.95	86.99	+0.82	CB ahead
2026-06-29	113.80	87.55	+0.83	CB ahead
2026-06-26	113.19	89.34	+0.67	CB ahead
2026-06-25	109.67	85.83	+0.73	CB ahead
2026-06-24	111.10	87.81	+0.68	CB ahead
2026-06-23	110.09	85.89	+0.77	CB ahead
2026-06-22	107.80	82.58	+0.89	CB ahead
2026-06-18	107.21	81.58	+0.94	CB ahead
2026-06-17	108.72	81.40	+1.05	CB ahead
2026-06-16	109.03	81.50	+1.07	CB ahead
2026-06-15	108.38	81.04	+1.07	CB ahead
2026-06-12	108.78	80.88	+1.12	CB ahead
2026-06-11	108.71	80.54	+1.15	CB ahead
2026-06-10	109.59	81.32	+1.15	CB ahead
2026-06-09	107.78	79.69	+1.18	CB ahead
2026-06-08	106.70	79.75	+1.12	CB ahead
2026-06-05	108.16	81.24	+1.09	CB ahead
2026-06-04	104.26	77.80	+1.14	CB ahead
2026-06-03	103.68	77.04	+1.18	CB ahead
2026-06-02	103.52	78.38	+1.07	CB ahead
2026-06-01	102.69	76.72	+1.16	CB ahead
2026-05-29	103.34	75.82	+1.28	CB ahead
2026-05-28	104.83	77.46	+1.25	CB ahead
2026-05-27	106.29	78.41	+1.27	CB ahead
2026-05-26	107.89	79.16	+1.31	CB ahead
2026-05-22	108.70	79.45	+1.34	CB ahead
2026-05-21	109.48	79.23	+1.41	CB ahead
2026-05-20	108.86	80.68	+1.28	CB ahead
2026-05-19	109.44	80.79	+1.31	CB ahead
2026-05-18	109.50	81.24	+1.29	CB ahead
2026-05-15	107.46	79.54	+1.32	CB ahead
2026-05-14	106.11	78.40	+1.34	CB ahead
2026-05-13	104.76	78.03	+1.30	CB ahead
2026-05-12	106.76	79.01	+1.35	CB ahead
2026-05-11	106.17	78.41	+1.37	CB ahead
2026-05-08	105.96	77.25	+1.46	CB ahead
2026-05-07	106.50	77.95	+1.45	CB ahead
2026-05-06	106.71	78.37	+1.44	CB ahead
2026-05-05	106.93	78.74	+1.43	CB ahead
2026-05-04	107.78	79.34	+1.45	CB ahead
2026-05-01	108.14	79.37	+1.48	CB ahead
2026-04-30	108.40	80.15	+1.44	CB ahead
2026-04-29	107.99	79.91	+1.45	CB ahead
2026-04-28	109.51	80.85	+1.48	CB ahead
2026-04-27	107.60	80.43	+1.41	CB ahead
2026-04-24	108.11	80.00	+1.49	CB ahead
2026-04-23	110.35	81.77	+1.49	CB ahead
2026-04-22	107.88	80.72	+1.45	CB ahead
2026-04-21	109.16	82.63	+1.39	CB ahead
2026-04-20	109.39	81.15	+1.53	CB ahead
2026-04-17	109.67	80.67	+1.59	CB ahead
2026-04-16	108.87	81.03	+1.53	CB ahead
2026-04-15	108.49	80.13	+1.59	CB ahead
2026-04-14	107.98	78.29	+1.73	CB ahead
2026-04-13	109.39	79.47	+1.73	CB ahead
2026-04-10	108.70	77.31	+1.88	CB ahead
2026-04-09	110.37	79.60	+1.82	CB ahead
2026-04-08	110.27	78.88	+1.89	CB ahead
2026-04-07	108.53	78.39	+1.85	CB ahead
2026-04-06	108.37	78.20	+1.87	CB ahead
2026-04-02	108.84	77.75	+1.96	CB ahead
2026-04-01	108.45	77.00	+2.02	CB ahead
2026-03-31	108.05	78.94	+1.86	CB ahead
2026-03-30	107.85	80.20	+1.76	CB ahead
2026-03-27	105.78	79.18	+1.74	CB ahead
2026-03-26	107.51	80.80	+1.73	CB ahead
2026-03-25	107.14	80.77	+1.73	CB ahead
2026-03-24	107.94	82.12	+1.68	CB ahead
2026-03-23	108.19	81.67	+1.75	CB ahead
2026-03-20	106.93	82.03	+1.66	CB ahead
2026-03-19	107.29	80.71	+1.81	CB ahead
2026-03-18	108.73	80.11	+1.97	CB ahead
2026-03-17	109.68	81.15	+1.97	CB ahead
2026-03-16	109.43	81.52	+1.94	CB ahead
2026-03-13	109.05	81.70	+1.93	CB ahead
2026-03-12	109.25	81.71	+1.96	CB ahead
2026-03-11	106.99	80.13	+1.98	CB ahead
2026-03-10	107.82	82.41	+1.85	CB ahead
2026-03-09	107.54	82.35	+1.86	CB ahead
2026-03-06	108.73	83.86	+1.83	CB ahead
2026-03-05	110.21	83.86	+1.95	CB ahead
2026-03-04	110.77	84.18	+1.98	CB ahead
2026-03-03	112.15	84.96	+2.02	CB ahead
2026-03-02	113.62	84.98	+2.14	CB ahead
2026-02-27	112.99	85.08	+2.12	CB ahead
2026-02-26	112.02	84.31	+2.14	CB ahead
2026-02-25	110.90	81.45	+2.36	CB ahead
2026-02-24	111.67	82.06	+2.38	CB ahead
2026-02-23	110.52	81.11	+2.43	CB ahead
2026-02-20	109.93	81.27	+2.41	CB ahead
2026-02-19	109.12	80.35	+2.48	CB ahead
2026-02-18	109.16	80.95	+2.46	CB ahead
2026-02-17	110.02	82.79	+2.38	CB ahead
2026-02-13	107.72	81.45	+2.38	CB ahead
2026-02-12	110.23	81.81	+2.57	CB ahead
2026-02-11	109.09	82.98	+2.41	CB ahead
2026-02-10	108.15	80.68	+2.61	CB ahead
2026-02-09	108.13	80.25	+2.70	CB ahead
2026-02-06	109.72	80.56	+2.85	CB ahead
2026-02-05	109.82	82.65	+2.69	CB ahead
2026-02-04	109.21	81.85	+2.78	CB ahead
2026-02-03	103.89	80.05	+2.59	CB ahead
2026-02-02	103.18	80.85	+2.48	CB ahead
2026-01-30	102.62	82.83	+2.26	CB ahead
2026-01-29	101.50	82.93	+2.18	CB ahead
2026-01-28	100.66	84.72	+1.94	CB ahead
2026-01-27	99.94	82.86	+2.10	CB ahead
2026-01-26	100.61	82.83	+2.19	CB ahead
2026-01-23	99.75	82.04	+2.23	CB ahead
2026-01-22	99.75	82.40	+2.22	CB ahead
2026-01-21	99.44	80.84	+2.41	CB ahead
2026-01-20	99.80	81.20	+2.44	CB ahead
2026-01-16	99.70	80.59	+2.55	CB ahead
2026-01-15	99.82	81.04	+2.54	CB ahead
2026-01-14	99.78	81.83	+2.49	CB ahead
2026-01-13	99.68	81.66	+2.54	CB ahead
2026-01-12	101.64	86.21	+2.22	CB ahead
2026-01-09	101.71	85.68	+2.33	CB ahead
2026-01-08	103.76	84.88	+2.68	CB ahead
2026-01-07	101.65	83.27	+2.71	CB ahead
2026-01-06	102.53	84.56	+2.69	CB ahead
2026-01-05	104.49	84.79	+2.92	CB ahead
2026-01-02	102.78	84.47	+2.84	CB ahead
2025-12-31	103.47	90.68	+2.16	CB ahead
2025-12-30	104.14	91.58	+2.15	CB ahead
2025-12-29	104.24	91.00	+2.26	CB ahead
2025-12-26	103.92	90.45	+2.33	CB ahead
2025-12-24	103.87	90.66	+2.33	CB ahead
2025-12-23	103.86	90.75	+2.35	CB ahead
2025-12-22	103.08	90.54	+2.32	CB ahead
2025-12-19	102.96	89.31	+2.51	CB ahead
2025-12-18	103.08	89.54	+2.53	CB ahead
2025-12-17	103.75	90.50	+2.52	CB ahead
2025-12-16	103.11	92.31	+2.24	CB ahead
2025-12-15	103.63	94.12	+2.08	CB ahead
2025-12-12	102.26	93.52	+2.02	CB ahead
2025-12-11	101.43	91.76	+2.19	CB ahead
2025-12-10	98.30	88.73	+2.25	CB ahead
2025-12-09	99.85	90.14	+2.28	CB ahead
2025-12-08	98.53	88.87	+2.33	CB ahead
2025-12-05	97.79	88.76	+2.28	CB ahead
2025-12-04	97.67	90.43	+2.04	CB ahead
2025-12-03	97.81	90.47	+2.08	CB ahead
2025-12-02	97.63	91.10	+1.98	CB ahead
2025-12-01	97.42	90.72	+2.04	CB ahead
2025-11-28	98.18	91.11	+2.11	CB ahead
2025-11-26	98.75	91.25	+2.20	CB ahead
2025-11-25	98.71	90.16	+2.40	CB ahead
2025-11-24	98.06	89.63	+2.43	CB ahead
2025-11-21	98.88	90.36	+2.47	CB ahead
2025-11-20	98.23	90.00	+2.47	CB ahead
2025-11-19	97.45	88.77	+2.59	CB ahead
2025-11-18	98.31	89.55	+2.64	CB ahead
2025-11-17	97.98	89.74	+2.61	CB ahead
2025-11-14	97.95	89.67	+2.66	CB ahead
2025-11-13	98.20	88.86	+2.90	CB ahead
2025-11-12	97.77	88.35	+2.98	CB ahead
2025-11-11	96.94	87.57	+3.05	CB ahead
2025-11-10	95.55	86.62	+3.06	CB ahead
2025-11-07	95.32	86.52	+3.11	CB ahead
2025-11-06	93.83	83.47	+3.54	CB ahead
2025-11-05	93.90	83.20	+3.72	CB ahead
2025-11-04	94.69	83.46	+3.93	CB ahead
2025-11-03	92.24	81.12	+4.10	CB ahead
2025-10-31	91.81	82.03	+3.91	CB ahead
2025-10-30	92.18	82.42	+4.01	CB ahead
2025-10-29	92.16	82.82	+4.03	CB ahead
2025-10-28	91.35	84.39	+3.55	CB ahead
2025-10-27	93.38	86.25	+3.62	CB ahead
2025-10-24	93.46	87.25	+3.46	CB ahead
2025-10-23	93.79	87.84	+3.46	CB ahead
2025-10-22	91.67	88.65	+2.79	CB ahead
2025-10-21	89.26	88.24	+2.31	CB ahead
2025-10-20	88.91	87.36	+2.48	CB ahead
2025-10-17	88.91	89.84	+1.87	CB ahead
2025-10-16	88.92	88.30	+2.28	CB ahead
2025-10-15	92.26	90.20	+2.67	CB ahead
2025-10-14	94.35	95.73	+1.85	CB ahead
2025-10-13	93.66	94.09	+2.09	CB ahead
2025-10-10	93.82	95.57	+1.79	CB ahead
2025-10-09	94.26	96.43	+1.70	CB ahead
2025-10-08	95.17	96.79	+1.85	CB ahead
2025-10-07	95.88	97.12	+1.96	CB ahead
2025-10-06	94.94	95.77	+2.07	CB ahead
2025-10-03	94.13	97.84	+1.37	CB ahead
2025-10-02	93.27	96.97	+1.37	CB ahead
2025-10-01	93.29	98.14	+1.09	CB ahead
2025-09-30	93.57	98.34	+1.11	CB ahead
2025-09-29	92.67	97.32	+1.13	CB ahead
2025-09-26	93.05	96.96	+1.32	CB ahead
2025-09-25	92.26	96.44	+1.24	CB ahead
2025-09-24	92.24	95.57	+1.46	CB ahead
2025-09-23	91.46	95.02	+1.40	CB ahead
2025-09-22	90.50	96.03	+0.90	CB ahead
2025-09-19	90.79	96.50	+0.86	CB ahead
2025-09-18	90.92	96.37	+0.93	CB ahead
2025-09-17	90.25	97.01	+0.59	CB ahead
2025-09-16	90.17	97.55	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2025-09-15	90.94	97.82	+0.57	CB ahead
2025-09-12	92.19	98.87	+0.63	CB ahead
2025-09-11	93.78	99.08	+0.98	CB ahead
2025-09-10	91.97	98.12	+0.75	CB ahead
2025-09-09	91.82	96.87	+1.01	CB ahead
2025-09-08	91.98	97.94	+0.79	CB ahead
2025-09-05	91.95	97.11	+0.98	CB ahead
2025-09-04	92.78	99.16	+0.70	CB ahead
2025-09-03	92.23	98.25	+0.78	CB ahead
2025-09-02	91.76	97.91	+0.74	CB ahead
2025-08-29	91.19	98.38	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-08-28	90.58	98.00	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-08-27	90.52	97.44	+0.52	CB ahead
2025-08-26	90.17	97.97	+0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-08-25	90.97	97.20	+0.69	CB ahead
2025-08-22	92.05	99.24	+0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-08-21	92.43	99.14	+0.60	CB ahead
2025-08-20	92.71	100.62	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-08-19	90.76	99.81	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-08-18	90.47	98.40	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-08-15	90.90	98.42	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2025-08-14	91.41	99.93	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-08-13	91.18	99.23	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-08-12	89.43	96.78	+0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-08-11	89.84	97.52	+0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-08-08	89.92	98.16	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-08-07	89.28	97.69	+0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-08-06	89.38	98.57	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-08-05	88.74	96.74	+0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-08-04	88.76	96.20	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-08-01	88.64	96.01	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2025-07-31	88.19	96.38	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-07-30	88.35	96.25	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-07-29	89.02	96.17	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-07-28	88.18	95.96	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-07-25	89.22	99.59	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-07-24	89.56	98.51	-0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-07-23	89.55	98.57	-0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-07-22	92.40	98.51	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-07-21	90.84	97.61	+0.26	near the usual relationship
2025-07-18	90.87	98.12	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-07-17	91.31	98.47	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-07-16	92.02	98.14	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-07-15	91.39	96.45	+0.55	CB ahead
2025-07-14	92.89	98.51	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-07-11	92.17	97.55	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2025-07-10	93.00	99.31	+0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-07-09	92.82	99.72	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-07-08	92.80	100.21	+0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-07-07	92.81	100.96	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-07-03	94.08	104.20	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-07-02	92.85	102.66	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2025-07-01	96.00	105.25	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-06-30	96.04	106.27	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-06-27	94.52	105.13	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-06-26	94.00	104.18	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-06-25	93.75	103.40	-0.30	near the usual relationship
2025-06-24	95.07	105.93	-0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-06-23	95.53	106.08	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-06-20	94.09	104.34	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-06-18	93.53	103.67	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-06-17	94.08	105.83	-0.65	PGR ahead
2025-06-16	94.95	106.10	-0.55	PGR ahead
2025-06-13	95.07	106.66	-0.61	PGR ahead
2025-06-12	95.90	106.89	-0.52	PGR ahead
2025-06-11	94.68	104.82	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-06-10	94.89	105.72	-0.53	PGR ahead
2025-06-09	96.07	108.04	-0.67	PGR ahead
2025-06-06	97.40	111.23	-0.91	PGR ahead
2025-06-05	96.64	111.58	-1.08	PGR ahead
2025-06-04	96.72	112.36	-1.18	PGR ahead
2025-06-03	98.26	114.39	-1.22	PGR ahead
2025-06-02	99.43	114.98	-1.12	PGR ahead
2025-05-30	98.52	113.46	-1.07	PGR ahead
2025-05-29	97.51	110.43	-0.83	PGR ahead
2025-05-28	95.80	110.32	-1.08	PGR ahead
2025-05-27	96.05	111.00	-1.14	PGR ahead
2025-05-23	94.84	110.43	-1.25	PGR ahead
2025-05-22	95.17	110.35	-1.20	PGR ahead
2025-05-21	96.27	111.90	-1.24	PGR ahead
2025-05-20	96.78	113.74	-1.40	PGR ahead
2025-05-19	97.65	114.78	-1.42	PGR ahead
2025-05-16	97.57	113.90	-1.33	PGR ahead
2025-05-15	96.81	111.96	-1.21	PGR ahead
2025-05-14	93.28	110.77	-1.60	PGR ahead
2025-05-13	94.59	112.53	-1.64	PGR ahead
2025-05-12	96.02	111.60	-1.32	PGR ahead
2025-05-09	96.09	113.30	-1.54	PGR ahead
2025-05-08	95.79	113.06	-1.57	PGR ahead
2025-05-07	96.28	114.04	-1.64	PGR ahead
2025-05-06	95.80	112.96	-1.59	PGR ahead
2025-05-05	95.42	112.36	-1.59	PGR ahead
2025-05-02	95.24	112.62	-1.66	PGR ahead
2025-05-01	93.91	110.57	-1.61	PGR ahead
2025-04-30	94.84	112.19	-1.70	PGR ahead
2025-04-29	94.46	110.03	-1.49	PGR ahead
2025-04-28	93.54	107.35	-1.27	PGR ahead
2025-04-25	92.52	105.53	-1.19	PGR ahead
2025-04-24	93.48	105.60	-1.05	PGR ahead
2025-04-23	94.31	105.54	-0.92	PGR ahead
2025-04-22	96.27	105.56	-0.62	PGR ahead
2025-04-21	92.75	102.50	-0.74	PGR ahead
2025-04-17	94.67	105.71	-0.90	PGR ahead
2025-04-16	94.50	109.56	-1.48	PGR ahead
2025-04-15	94.41	109.95	-1.57	PGR ahead
2025-04-14	95.58	110.93	-1.53	PGR ahead
2025-04-11	93.94	109.76	-1.65	PGR ahead
2025-04-10	93.60	108.78	-1.58	PGR ahead
2025-04-09	94.35	107.56	-1.29	PGR ahead
2025-04-08	91.16	103.69	-1.27	PGR ahead
2025-04-07	90.94	101.65	-1.01	PGR ahead
2025-04-04	93.05	102.60	-0.81	PGR ahead
2025-04-03	100.27	114.29	-1.33	PGR ahead
2025-04-02	99.96	111.99	-1.07	PGR ahead
2025-04-01	99.91	113.21	-1.25	PGR ahead
2025-03-31	100.11	112.70	-1.16	PGR ahead
2025-03-28	98.27	111.05	-1.23	PGR ahead
2025-03-27	98.91	109.38	-0.91	PGR ahead
2025-03-26	97.90	108.53	-0.95	PGR ahead
2025-03-25	96.60	109.28	-1.27	PGR ahead
2025-03-24	96.61	109.11	-1.26	PGR ahead
2025-03-21	96.61	108.66	-1.20	PGR ahead
2025-03-20	97.50	109.36	-1.17	PGR ahead
2025-03-19	98.21	108.83	-0.99	PGR ahead
2025-03-18	98.01	112.81	-1.59	PGR ahead
2025-03-17	98.59	115.97	-1.94	PGR ahead
2025-03-14	97.45	112.97	-1.73	PGR ahead
2025-03-13	95.65	111.26	-1.79	PGR ahead
2025-03-12	94.14	110.52	-1.96	PGR ahead
2025-03-11	96.37	110.28	-1.58	PGR ahead
2025-03-10	97.12	110.98	-1.57	PGR ahead
2025-03-07	95.00	111.43	-1.99	PGR ahead
2025-03-06	94.90	111.97	-2.10	PGR ahead
2025-03-05	95.14	112.24	-2.11	PGR ahead
2025-03-04	94.20	112.77	-2.37	PGR ahead
2025-03-03	96.03	113.52	-2.19	PGR ahead
2025-02-28	94.64	112.30	-2.27	PGR ahead
2025-02-27	93.38	111.01	-2.33	PGR ahead
2025-02-26	90.72	108.88	-2.50	PGR ahead
2025-02-25	91.97	110.91	-2.61	PGR ahead
2025-02-24	90.65	108.57	-2.53	PGR ahead
2025-02-21	88.59	106.00	-2.55	PGR ahead
2025-02-20	88.67	106.59	-2.66	PGR ahead
2025-02-19	88.32	107.37	-2.89	PGR ahead
2025-02-18	88.38	105.10	-2.56	PGR ahead
2025-02-14	87.69	104.57	-2.64	PGR ahead
2025-02-13	88.76	104.38	-2.43	PGR ahead
2025-02-12	87.87	102.26	-2.27	PGR ahead
2025-02-11	88.83	102.57	-2.16	PGR ahead
2025-02-10	88.37	99.43	-1.75	PGR ahead
2025-02-07	89.56	99.79	-1.59	PGR ahead
2025-02-06	90.46	100.09	-1.48	PGR ahead
2025-02-05	90.43	99.16	-1.34	PGR ahead
2025-02-04	90.24	98.76	-1.31	PGR ahead
2025-02-03	90.81	99.12	-1.28	PGR ahead
2025-01-31	90.13	98.14	-1.25	PGR ahead
2025-01-30	91.09	99.24	-1.26	PGR ahead
2025-01-29	91.44	98.12	-1.03	PGR ahead
2025-01-28	90.26	97.58	-1.15	PGR ahead
2025-01-27	91.66	98.32	-1.04	PGR ahead
2025-01-24	88.41	95.10	-1.08	PGR ahead
2025-01-23	88.34	95.38	-1.14	PGR ahead
2025-01-22	88.95	95.24	-1.02	PGR ahead
2025-01-21	89.13	95.97	-1.11	PGR ahead
2025-01-17	89.33	97.04	-1.25	PGR ahead
2025-01-16	90.67	97.78	-1.15	PGR ahead
2025-01-15	88.98	96.56	-1.25	PGR ahead
2025-01-14	88.02	95.48	-1.26	PGR ahead
2025-01-13	86.77	93.89	-1.23	PGR ahead
2025-01-10	85.43	93.82	-1.46	PGR ahead
2025-01-08	88.39	97.00	-1.46	PGR ahead
2025-01-07	89.09	96.48	-1.27	PGR ahead
2025-01-06	88.61	95.41	-1.19	PGR ahead
2025-01-03	90.08	96.46	-1.11	PGR ahead
2025-01-02	90.34	95.83	-0.98	PGR ahead
2024-12-31	91.59	95.42	-0.73	PGR ahead
2024-12-30	91.30	95.41	-0.78	PGR ahead
2024-12-27	92.05	95.98	-0.75	PGR ahead
2024-12-26	92.25	96.84	-0.85	PGR ahead
2024-12-24	91.67	96.86	-0.95	PGR ahead
2024-12-23	91.29	95.97	-0.88	PGR ahead
2024-12-20	90.57	95.56	-0.94	PGR ahead
2024-12-19	90.55	95.46	-0.93	PGR ahead
2024-12-18	90.03	95.68	-1.05	PGR ahead
2024-12-17	91.72	98.57	-1.21	PGR ahead
2024-12-16	91.40	99.65	-1.41	PGR ahead
2024-12-13	91.52	100.27	-1.48	PGR ahead
2024-12-12	91.29	96.67	-1.04	PGR ahead
2024-12-11	91.57	97.06	-1.06	PGR ahead
2024-12-10	91.03	98.47	-1.34	PGR ahead
2024-12-09	91.93	98.70	-1.25	PGR ahead
2024-12-06	93.92	101.37	-1.32	PGR ahead
2024-12-05	95.01	104.05	-1.53	PGR ahead
2024-12-04	94.34	103.68	-1.59	PGR ahead
2024-12-03	94.89	104.58	-1.64	PGR ahead
2024-12-02	96.10	105.14	-1.55	PGR ahead
2024-11-29	95.71	107.07	-1.86	PGR ahead
2024-11-27	96.25	106.27	-1.70	PGR ahead
2024-11-26	95.63	106.73	-1.86	PGR ahead
2024-11-25	94.95	105.88	-1.87	PGR ahead
2024-11-22	94.55	105.95	-1.96	PGR ahead
2024-11-21	94.51	104.91	-1.85	PGR ahead
2024-11-20	93.76	102.35	-1.64	PGR ahead
2024-11-19	94.10	101.35	-1.47	PGR ahead
2024-11-18	95.71	102.15	-1.36	PGR ahead
2024-11-15	95.47	101.86	-1.36	PGR ahead
2024-11-14	95.12	102.54	-1.51	PGR ahead
2024-11-13	93.94	104.08	-1.90	PGR ahead
2024-11-12	93.78	104.47	-1.99	PGR ahead
2024-11-11	93.05	103.49	-1.99	PGR ahead
2024-11-08	93.27	104.14	-2.07	PGR ahead
2024-11-07	92.15	101.65	-1.93	PGR ahead
2024-11-06	92.82	103.04	-2.03	PGR ahead
2024-11-05	91.92	98.79	-1.60	PGR ahead
2024-11-04	91.52	96.16	-1.30	PGR ahead
2024-11-01	91.96	96.65	-1.32	PGR ahead
2024-10-31	93.63	96.70	-1.09	PGR ahead
2024-10-30	94.03	96.77	-1.05	PGR ahead
2024-10-29	95.21	96.24	-0.81	PGR ahead
2024-10-28	96.14	97.29	-0.83	PGR ahead
2024-10-25	95.47	97.08	-0.90	PGR ahead
2024-10-24	97.45	98.31	-0.80	PGR ahead
2024-10-23	97.79	98.46	-0.78	PGR ahead
2024-10-22	98.49	98.86	-0.74	PGR ahead
2024-10-21	98.74	99.85	-0.85	PGR ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	-0.71	PGR ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Jan 2, 2026 (CB -0.7%, PGR -6.8%); Jul 15, 2026 (CB -2.5%, PGR -9.4%); Aug 19, 2026 (CB -1.3%, PGR +4.8%).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

CB and PGR at a glance

CB Chubb Limited

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 896159
Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers · SIC 6331 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Market value: $137.4B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

PGR The Progressive Corporation

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 80661
Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers · SIC 6331 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Market value: $127.4B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
CB / TRV	Watchlist	TRV by 1.95 sd	Property-Casualty Insurers
PGR / TRV	Watchlist	TRV by 1.49 sd	Property-Casualty Insurers

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.