Packaged Foods

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company vs The Kraft Heinz Company

WatchlistADM / KHCPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #2 and #3 by market value ($39B vs $27B) in Nasdaq's "Packaged Foods" industry; SEC SIC 2070 / 2030 (same major group).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.07 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.68 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

ADM is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	ADM	KHC	Larger
2025	$80.3B	$24.9B	ADM
2024	$85.5B	$25.8B	ADM
2023	$93.9B	$26.6B	ADM
2022	$101.6B	$26.5B	ADM
2021	$85.2B	$26.0B	ADM
2020	$64.4B	$26.2B	ADM

ADM led in every year with figures for both. Market value: ADM $38.8B, KHC $27.5B.

Stock leadership

ADM is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

ADM leads KHC by 0.43 standard deviations: +6.2% over its usual price ratio. 0 lead switches in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
ADM	-7.1%	+14.0%	+29.4%
KHC	-2.3%	+14.2%	-1.9%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.07 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -1.68 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 38.51 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company KHC The Kraft Heinz CompanyPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: ADM relative to KHC, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: ADM ahead; below 0: KHC ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	ADM index	KHC index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	141.56	69.69	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2026-10-21	140.71	65.28	+0.87	ADM ahead
2026-10-20	142.66	66.19	+0.88	ADM ahead
2026-10-19	142.75	64.36	+1.09	ADM ahead
2026-10-16	146.47	65.78	+1.13	ADM ahead
2026-10-15	147.04	64.67	+1.29	ADM ahead
2026-10-14	148.30	63.06	+1.54	ADM ahead
2026-10-13	147.52	62.31	+1.60	ADM ahead
2026-10-12	142.59	62.36	+1.36	ADM ahead
2026-10-09	141.65	61.86	+1.39	ADM ahead
2026-10-08	146.19	62.44	+1.56	ADM ahead
2026-10-07	144.22	61.06	+1.64	ADM ahead
2026-10-06	145.76	61.19	+1.71	ADM ahead
2026-10-05	146.22	60.67	+1.81	ADM ahead
2026-10-02	142.64	61.64	+1.53	ADM ahead
2026-10-01	140.99	62.39	+1.36	ADM ahead
2026-09-30	140.74	63.11	+1.28	ADM ahead
2026-09-29	140.78	65.14	+1.06	ADM ahead
2026-09-28	142.52	65.44	+1.12	ADM ahead
2026-09-25	143.83	65.64	+1.18	ADM ahead
2026-09-24	145.18	66.28	+1.18	ADM ahead
2026-09-23	145.66	66.08	+1.23	ADM ahead
2026-09-22	145.99	66.67	+1.20	ADM ahead
2026-09-21	147.84	67.69	+1.19	ADM ahead
2026-09-18	151.03	67.86	+1.33	ADM ahead
2026-09-17	156.19	68.69	+1.49	ADM ahead
2026-09-16	150.71	68.69	+1.25	ADM ahead
2026-09-15	153.56	68.69	+1.39	ADM ahead
2026-09-14	153.26	67.42	+1.52	ADM ahead
2026-09-11	153.76	68.33	+1.46	ADM ahead
2026-09-10	154.10	67.75	+1.55	ADM ahead
2026-09-09	153.46	68.36	+1.47	ADM ahead
2026-09-08	149.82	69.17	+1.23	ADM ahead
2026-09-04	150.02	69.03	+1.26	ADM ahead
2026-09-03	149.61	70.61	+1.09	ADM ahead
2026-09-02	151.38	72.94	+0.95	ADM ahead
2026-09-01	149.91	71.86	+1.00	ADM ahead
2026-08-31	144.13	71.31	+0.78	ADM ahead
2026-08-28	144.57	71.39	+0.80	ADM ahead
2026-08-27	140.25	69.81	+0.75	ADM ahead
2026-08-26	142.00	68.86	+0.94	ADM ahead
2026-08-25	140.35	70.33	+0.72	ADM ahead
2026-08-24	138.58	71.31	+0.55	ADM ahead
2026-08-21	142.38	71.06	+0.76	ADM ahead
2026-08-20	144.86	71.03	+0.89	ADM ahead
2026-08-19	143.19	71.33	+0.79	ADM ahead
2026-08-18	146.19	68.94	+1.16	ADM ahead
2026-08-17	144.13	68.75	+1.09	ADM ahead
2026-08-14	142.64	70.86	+0.83	ADM ahead
2026-08-13	142.11	70.50	+0.84	ADM ahead
2026-08-12	141.37	68.14	+1.04	ADM ahead
2026-08-11	142.66	68.47	+1.08	ADM ahead
2026-08-10	142.71	69.25	+1.01	ADM ahead
2026-08-07	135.80	70.33	+0.59	ADM ahead
2026-08-06	137.43	69.33	+0.77	ADM ahead
2026-08-05	137.55	71.47	+0.58	ADM ahead
2026-08-04	141.61	74.00	+0.55	ADM ahead
2026-08-03	138.40	73.39	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-07-31	140.55	71.81	+0.71	ADM ahead
2026-07-30	142.93	73.28	+0.69	ADM ahead
2026-07-29	142.52	76.72	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2026-07-28	147.48	75.83	+0.68	ADM ahead
2026-07-27	147.50	72.83	+0.93	ADM ahead
2026-07-24	152.34	71.31	+1.26	ADM ahead
2026-07-23	153.10	70.44	+1.37	ADM ahead
2026-07-22	154.82	72.11	+1.31	ADM ahead
2026-07-21	152.84	71.64	+1.28	ADM ahead
2026-07-20	151.90	71.83	+1.23	ADM ahead
2026-07-17	152.30	71.89	+1.25	ADM ahead
2026-07-16	147.16	72.86	+0.98	ADM ahead
2026-07-15	145.92	70.69	+1.11	ADM ahead
2026-07-14	145.89	69.67	+1.20	ADM ahead
2026-07-13	145.46	70.08	+1.16	ADM ahead
2026-07-10	142.57	69.03	+1.14	ADM ahead
2026-07-09	140.04	68.56	+1.08	ADM ahead
2026-07-08	142.36	69.22	+1.13	ADM ahead
2026-07-07	138.65	70.28	+0.90	ADM ahead
2026-07-06	138.17	68.94	+0.99	ADM ahead
2026-07-02	136.15	70.47	+0.79	ADM ahead
2026-07-01	135.83	69.47	+0.87	ADM ahead
2026-06-30	135.46	65.61	+1.19	ADM ahead
2026-06-29	136.29	67.19	+1.09	ADM ahead
2026-06-26	136.15	65.83	+1.21	ADM ahead
2026-06-25	135.71	65.19	+1.26	ADM ahead
2026-06-24	133.12	63.72	+1.29	ADM ahead
2026-06-23	134.47	62.42	+1.48	ADM ahead
2026-06-22	135.27	61.19	+1.64	ADM ahead
2026-06-18	133.16	63.39	+1.36	ADM ahead
2026-06-17	135.64	64.44	+1.38	ADM ahead
2026-06-16	138.33	66.11	+1.36	ADM ahead
2026-06-15	140.55	66.64	+1.41	ADM ahead
2026-06-12	142.27	67.75	+1.40	ADM ahead
2026-06-11	139.89	67.28	+1.35	ADM ahead
2026-06-10	144.11	66.81	+1.57	ADM ahead
2026-06-09	142.06	65.08	+1.64	ADM ahead
2026-06-08	142.23	64.86	+1.68	ADM ahead
2026-06-05	143.48	62.72	+1.93	ADM ahead
2026-06-04	147.82	62.42	+2.14	ADM ahead
2026-06-03	149.13	63.22	+2.14	ADM ahead
2026-06-02	146.21	64.81	+1.90	ADM ahead
2026-06-01	146.49	65.64	+1.86	ADM ahead
2026-05-29	141.45	66.69	+1.58	ADM ahead
2026-05-28	141.91	67.97	+1.50	ADM ahead
2026-05-27	141.05	67.72	+1.50	ADM ahead
2026-05-26	138.32	66.25	+1.52	ADM ahead
2026-05-22	137.45	66.08	+1.51	ADM ahead
2026-05-21	136.74	65.39	+1.55	ADM ahead
2026-05-20	137.50	65.36	+1.60	ADM ahead
2026-05-19	140.76	64.67	+1.80	ADM ahead
2026-05-18	143.46	64.86	+1.91	ADM ahead
2026-05-15	142.55	63.67	+2.00	ADM ahead
2026-05-14	144.34	64.75	+1.99	ADM ahead
2026-05-13	146.97	64.39	+2.14	ADM ahead
2026-05-12	143.14	64.92	+1.97	ADM ahead
2026-05-11	141.56	64.61	+1.94	ADM ahead
2026-05-08	137.70	66.56	+1.63	ADM ahead
2026-05-07	137.46	65.67	+1.71	ADM ahead
2026-05-06	138.33	64.08	+1.89	ADM ahead
2026-05-05	140.41	62.61	+2.12	ADM ahead
2026-05-04	135.23	62.28	+1.96	ADM ahead
2026-05-01	132.87	62.47	+1.86	ADM ahead
2026-04-30	132.16	62.94	+1.80	ADM ahead
2026-04-29	131.68	62.28	+1.85	ADM ahead
2026-04-28	129.08	62.42	+1.74	ADM ahead
2026-04-27	125.07	60.89	+1.71	ADM ahead
2026-04-24	122.75	60.94	+1.61	ADM ahead
2026-04-23	124.17	61.03	+1.68	ADM ahead
2026-04-22	123.10	60.81	+1.66	ADM ahead
2026-04-21	123.81	61.06	+1.68	ADM ahead
2026-04-20	121.22	61.69	+1.51	ADM ahead
2026-04-17	118.87	62.42	+1.35	ADM ahead
2026-04-16	121.77	62.75	+1.46	ADM ahead
2026-04-15	118.71	61.14	+1.47	ADM ahead
2026-04-14	122.06	61.42	+1.60	ADM ahead
2026-04-13	123.79	62.28	+1.61	ADM ahead
2026-04-10	123.63	64.06	+1.46	ADM ahead
2026-04-09	124.73	64.64	+1.47	ADM ahead
2026-04-08	127.16	63.75	+1.65	ADM ahead
2026-04-07	127.93	64.39	+1.64	ADM ahead
2026-04-06	130.11	65.47	+1.65	ADM ahead
2026-04-02	130.90	63.31	+1.87	ADM ahead
2026-04-01	128.32	61.86	+1.90	ADM ahead
2026-03-31	128.88	62.47	+1.89	ADM ahead
2026-03-30	127.22	62.06	+1.87	ADM ahead
2026-03-27	128.07	61.22	+2.00	ADM ahead
2026-03-26	128.24	59.89	+2.14	ADM ahead
2026-03-25	127.06	59.75	+2.13	ADM ahead
2026-03-24	126.67	59.22	+2.18	ADM ahead
2026-03-23	120.55	58.92	+1.96	ADM ahead
2026-03-20	117.32	59.92	+1.74	ADM ahead
2026-03-19	121.70	60.44	+1.91	ADM ahead
2026-03-18	125.66	61.33	+2.02	ADM ahead
2026-03-17	127.87	63.58	+1.94	ADM ahead
2026-03-16	125.44	63.08	+1.89	ADM ahead
2026-03-13	127.62	62.72	+2.03	ADM ahead
2026-03-12	128.55	62.03	+2.15	ADM ahead
2026-03-11	125.59	64.28	+1.85	ADM ahead
2026-03-10	123.03	65.72	+1.64	ADM ahead
2026-03-09	120.43	67.89	+1.36	ADM ahead
2026-03-06	119.57	68.17	+1.31	ADM ahead
2026-03-05	117.96	67.31	+1.31	ADM ahead
2026-03-04	119.18	66.78	+1.42	ADM ahead
2026-03-03	120.55	67.28	+1.45	ADM ahead
2026-03-02	123.42	68.08	+1.52	ADM ahead
2026-02-27	122.41	68.36	+1.47	ADM ahead
2026-02-26	119.54	68.25	+1.36	ADM ahead
2026-02-25	119.59	68.21	+1.38	ADM ahead
2026-02-24	120.60	68.83	+1.38	ADM ahead
2026-02-23	120.02	68.17	+1.42	ADM ahead
2026-02-20	120.35	67.78	+1.47	ADM ahead
2026-02-19	122.09	66.64	+1.65	ADM ahead
2026-02-18	119.72	66.53	+1.57	ADM ahead
2026-02-17	121.58	66.06	+1.70	ADM ahead
2026-02-13	123.24	68.89	+1.57	ADM ahead
2026-02-12	123.23	67.56	+1.68	ADM ahead
2026-02-11	122.87	69.42	+1.54	ADM ahead
2026-02-10	121.67	69.17	+1.52	ADM ahead
2026-02-09	119.41	68.28	+1.50	ADM ahead
2026-02-06	117.61	68.44	+1.42	ADM ahead
2026-02-05	116.01	67.90	+1.40	ADM ahead
2026-02-04	119.40	68.00	+1.56	ADM ahead
2026-02-03	119.49	66.31	+1.71	ADM ahead
2026-02-02	120.71	65.28	+1.87	ADM ahead
2026-01-30	119.34	65.94	+1.77	ADM ahead
2026-01-29	118.65	64.28	+1.90	ADM ahead
2026-01-28	119.50	64.42	+1.95	ADM ahead
2026-01-27	120.98	65.83	+1.92	ADM ahead
2026-01-26	119.45	65.50	+1.90	ADM ahead
2026-01-23	119.70	64.44	+2.03	ADM ahead
2026-01-22	119.01	63.11	+2.14	ADM ahead
2026-01-21	120.04	62.22	+2.30	ADM ahead
2026-01-20	116.81	66.00	+1.84	ADM ahead
2026-01-16	115.57	65.36	+1.85	ADM ahead
2026-01-15	118.03	67.33	+1.82	ADM ahead
2026-01-14	114.54	67.56	+1.65	ADM ahead
2026-01-13	112.38	65.31	+1.75	ADM ahead
2026-01-12	110.28	64.97	+1.69	ADM ahead
2026-01-09	109.82	65.06	+1.68	ADM ahead
2026-01-08	108.49	65.08	+1.62	ADM ahead
2026-01-07	103.76	63.92	+1.48	ADM ahead
2026-01-06	107.25	65.31	+1.56	ADM ahead
2026-01-05	105.64	66.03	+1.42	ADM ahead
2026-01-02	104.70	67.75	+1.23	ADM ahead
2025-12-31	101.93	67.36	+1.12	ADM ahead
2025-12-30	103.14	67.86	+1.15	ADM ahead
2025-12-29	103.23	67.36	+1.21	ADM ahead
2025-12-26	102.68	67.03	+1.22	ADM ahead
2025-12-24	102.45	66.72	+1.24	ADM ahead
2025-12-23	101.90	65.83	+1.30	ADM ahead
2025-12-22	102.57	67.08	+1.24	ADM ahead
2025-12-19	103.26	68.08	+1.20	ADM ahead
2025-12-18	103.37	68.75	+1.16	ADM ahead
2025-12-17	103.83	68.75	+1.19	ADM ahead
2025-12-16	102.80	68.56	+1.16	ADM ahead
2025-12-15	106.74	68.06	+1.44	ADM ahead
2025-12-12	106.40	67.92	+1.44	ADM ahead
2025-12-11	106.24	67.75	+1.46	ADM ahead
2025-12-10	103.21	67.64	+1.31	ADM ahead
2025-12-09	102.96	67.31	+1.34	ADM ahead
2025-12-08	102.73	68.08	+1.27	ADM ahead
2025-12-05	104.63	67.61	+1.43	ADM ahead
2025-12-04	105.25	68.31	+1.42	ADM ahead
2025-12-03	106.03	69.53	+1.37	ADM ahead
2025-12-02	106.93	69.33	+1.45	ADM ahead
2025-12-01	107.30	70.47	+1.38	ADM ahead
2025-11-28	107.70	70.86	+1.38	ADM ahead
2025-11-26	107.36	71.11	+1.36	ADM ahead
2025-11-25	105.85	70.67	+1.32	ADM ahead
2025-11-24	103.99	70.08	+1.27	ADM ahead
2025-11-21	103.95	70.25	+1.26	ADM ahead
2025-11-20	102.61	69.39	+1.27	ADM ahead
2025-11-19	103.24	69.19	+1.34	ADM ahead
2025-11-18	108.21	69.36	+1.63	ADM ahead
2025-11-17	104.15	68.03	+1.53	ADM ahead
2025-11-14	103.92	69.03	+1.43	ADM ahead
2025-11-13	104.31	69.33	+1.44	ADM ahead
2025-11-12	102.39	68.75	+1.39	ADM ahead
2025-11-11	102.18	68.53	+1.41	ADM ahead
2025-11-10	99.29	67.72	+1.32	ADM ahead
2025-11-07	101.03	67.44	+1.46	ADM ahead
2025-11-06	100.57	65.89	+1.60	ADM ahead
2025-11-05	99.80	67.06	+1.45	ADM ahead
2025-11-04	106.60	67.14	+1.88	ADM ahead
2025-11-03	106.54	67.58	+1.86	ADM ahead
2025-10-31	107.32	68.69	+1.82	ADM ahead
2025-10-30	107.61	68.28	+1.90	ADM ahead
2025-10-29	107.30	67.72	+1.96	ADM ahead
2025-10-28	108.81	70.89	+1.77	ADM ahead
2025-10-27	109.82	71.08	+1.83	ADM ahead
2025-10-24	112.29	70.14	+2.09	ADM ahead
2025-10-23	110.83	70.58	+1.99	ADM ahead
2025-10-22	109.77	71.22	+1.88	ADM ahead
2025-10-21	109.43	71.06	+1.90	ADM ahead
2025-10-20	112.04	71.42	+2.05	ADM ahead
2025-10-17	112.29	70.89	+2.14	ADM ahead
2025-10-16	111.52	69.81	+2.23	ADM ahead
2025-10-15	112.38	69.97	+2.30	ADM ahead
2025-10-14	109.66	70.67	+2.09	ADM ahead
2025-10-13	109.29	69.75	+2.19	ADM ahead
2025-10-10	107.87	69.86	+2.11	ADM ahead
2025-10-09	108.71	69.56	+2.23	ADM ahead
2025-10-08	110.32	69.67	+2.36	ADM ahead
2025-10-07	111.51	70.61	+2.37	ADM ahead
2025-10-06	110.73	70.19	+2.40	ADM ahead
2025-10-03	108.23	72.39	+2.03	ADM ahead
2025-10-02	104.80	72.42	+1.81	ADM ahead
2025-10-01	105.05	73.00	+1.78	ADM ahead
2025-09-30	105.92	72.33	+1.94	ADM ahead
2025-09-29	106.93	71.39	+2.14	ADM ahead
2025-09-26	107.45	72.36	+2.10	ADM ahead
2025-09-25	108.28	71.69	+2.26	ADM ahead
2025-09-24	109.01	74.28	+2.06	ADM ahead
2025-09-23	107.62	73.78	+2.04	ADM ahead
2025-09-22	106.13	73.28	+2.01	ADM ahead
2025-09-19	109.31	73.39	+2.26	ADM ahead
2025-09-18	107.85	72.44	+2.29	ADM ahead
2025-09-17	108.32	71.47	+2.48	ADM ahead
2025-09-16	110.55	72.03	+2.63	ADM ahead
2025-09-15	107.32	71.19	+2.52	ADM ahead
2025-09-12	109.17	72.58	+2.54	ADM ahead
2025-09-11	108.90	73.67	+2.43	ADM ahead
2025-09-10	108.88	74.03	+2.43	ADM ahead
2025-09-09	110.27	74.08	+2.58	ADM ahead
2025-09-08	110.46	74.72	+2.56	ADM ahead
2025-09-05	111.60	75.81	+2.56	ADM ahead
2025-09-04	109.82	74.89	+2.57	ADM ahead
2025-09-03	109.43	74.81	+2.59	ADM ahead
2025-09-02	110.02	72.28	+3.03	ADM ahead
2025-08-29	111.06	77.69	+2.47	ADM ahead
2025-08-28	111.10	76.78	+2.64	ADM ahead
2025-08-27	111.19	77.47	+2.60	ADM ahead
2025-08-26	111.38	76.94	+2.74	ADM ahead
2025-08-25	113.85	76.92	+3.03	ADM ahead
2025-08-22	111.56	77.94	+2.73	ADM ahead
2025-08-21	108.37	76.39	+2.69	ADM ahead
2025-08-20	107.68	76.17	+2.70	ADM ahead
2025-08-19	106.31	76.86	+2.51	ADM ahead
2025-08-18	105.80	75.75	+2.66	ADM ahead
2025-08-15	105.94	76.86	+2.56	ADM ahead
2025-08-14	105.18	76.81	+2.53	ADM ahead
2025-08-13	106.06	77.83	+2.52	ADM ahead
2025-08-12	103.83	75.97	+2.59	ADM ahead
2025-08-11	103.33	76.19	+2.55	ADM ahead
2025-08-08	102.55	77.11	+2.35	ADM ahead
2025-08-07	102.59	76.81	+2.44	ADM ahead
2025-08-06	100.59	75.72	+2.41	ADM ahead
2025-08-05	102.16	75.11	+2.75	ADM ahead
2025-08-04	96.38	74.44	+2.17	ADM ahead
2025-08-01	95.48	76.14	+1.79	ADM ahead
2025-07-31	96.06	76.28	+1.85	ADM ahead
2025-07-30	97.87	79.14	+1.62	ADM ahead
2025-07-29	96.10	79.33	+1.36	ADM ahead
2025-07-28	97.09	78.47	+1.63	ADM ahead
2025-07-25	98.14	79.67	+1.58	ADM ahead
2025-07-24	98.40	79.94	+1.57	ADM ahead
2025-07-23	99.68	80.39	+1.66	ADM ahead
2025-07-22	98.24	79.94	+1.55	ADM ahead
2025-07-21	96.01	76.33	+1.84	ADM ahead
2025-07-18	96.44	77.28	+1.74	ADM ahead
2025-07-17	94.93	78.14	+1.40	ADM ahead
2025-07-16	95.74	76.61	+1.75	ADM ahead
2025-07-15	95.27	75.33	+1.90	ADM ahead
2025-07-14	96.28	77.22	+1.71	ADM ahead
2025-07-11	97.41	75.39	+2.16	ADM ahead
2025-07-10	97.32	73.53	+2.48	ADM ahead
2025-07-09	95.74	73.47	+2.30	ADM ahead
2025-07-08	96.72	73.42	+2.46	ADM ahead
2025-07-07	96.67	72.44	+2.64	ADM ahead
2025-07-03	98.07	74.06	+2.57	ADM ahead
2025-07-02	99.11	75.17	+2.55	ADM ahead
2025-07-01	96.54	73.92	+2.45	ADM ahead
2025-06-30	93.58	71.72	+2.46	ADM ahead
2025-06-27	92.16	71.14	+2.39	ADM ahead
2025-06-26	94.27	71.64	+2.63	ADM ahead
2025-06-25	92.73	71.47	+2.47	ADM ahead
2025-06-24	93.85	72.31	+2.50	ADM ahead
2025-06-23	93.65	72.00	+2.56	ADM ahead
2025-06-20	95.05	71.67	+2.88	ADM ahead
2025-06-18	95.73	71.33	+3.10	ADM ahead
2025-06-17	95.92	71.53	+3.14	ADM ahead
2025-06-16	96.03	71.64	+3.20	ADM ahead
2025-06-13	92.20	72.44	+2.46	ADM ahead
2025-06-12	88.05	73.50	+1.56	ADM ahead
2025-06-11	86.29	73.39	+1.29	ADM ahead
2025-06-10	86.42	73.86	+1.22	ADM ahead
2025-06-09	84.93	73.56	+1.02	ADM ahead
2025-06-06	84.08	74.25	+0.73	ADM ahead
2025-06-05	83.30	73.94	+0.65	ADM ahead
2025-06-04	83.76	74.17	+0.69	ADM ahead
2025-06-03	83.83	74.42	+0.65	ADM ahead
2025-06-02	85.28	73.97	+1.01	ADM ahead
2025-05-30	85.59	74.25	+1.01	ADM ahead
2025-05-29	85.76	75.06	+0.88	ADM ahead
2025-05-28	85.73	73.72	+1.15	ADM ahead
2025-05-27	86.22	74.53	+1.08	ADM ahead
2025-05-23	85.00	73.06	+1.17	ADM ahead
2025-05-22	85.04	73.61	+1.07	ADM ahead
2025-05-21	85.64	73.97	+1.11	ADM ahead
2025-05-20	88.94	77.50	+0.98	ADM ahead
2025-05-19	88.67	77.44	+0.95	ADM ahead
2025-05-16	88.88	77.06	+1.07	ADM ahead
2025-05-15	86.63	76.36	+0.82	ADM ahead
2025-05-14	87.61	75.47	+1.18	ADM ahead
2025-05-13	89.88	76.64	+1.34	ADM ahead
2025-05-12	88.48	78.19	+0.79	ADM ahead
2025-05-09	86.05	77.97	+0.40	near the usual relationship
2025-05-08	84.57	79.14	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-05-07	84.89	78.42	+0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-05-06	85.67	78.89	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-05-05	84.22	79.42	-0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-05-02	84.84	79.56	-0.11	near the usual relationship
2025-05-01	84.36	79.17	-0.12	near the usual relationship
2025-04-30	84.66	80.83	-0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-04-29	84.72	80.19	-0.25	near the usual relationship
2025-04-28	85.20	80.03	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2025-04-25	85.55	81.92	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2025-04-24	86.49	82.33	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2025-04-23	85.32	83.58	-0.77	KHC ahead
2025-04-22	86.06	83.89	-0.70	KHC ahead
2025-04-21	85.27	83.17	-0.71	KHC ahead
2025-04-17	84.79	81.83	-0.55	KHC ahead
2025-04-16	81.79	80.03	-0.76	KHC ahead
2025-04-15	81.68	81.72	-1.11	KHC ahead
2025-04-14	82.32	82.78	-1.20	KHC ahead
2025-04-11	81.28	81.47	-1.16	KHC ahead
2025-04-10	78.87	80.11	-1.38	KHC ahead
2025-04-09	78.69	80.83	-1.57	KHC ahead
2025-04-08	74.10	76.92	-1.75	KHC ahead
2025-04-07	76.21	79.25	-1.80	KHC ahead
2025-04-04	76.81	82.44	-2.33	KHC ahead
2025-04-03	84.34	85.58	-1.44	KHC ahead
2025-04-02	85.05	83.69	-0.96	KHC ahead
2025-04-01	85.48	84.28	-0.99	KHC ahead
2025-03-31	85.12	84.53	-1.12	KHC ahead
2025-03-28	84.88	84.00	-1.07	KHC ahead
2025-03-27	85.60	83.53	-0.85	KHC ahead
2025-03-26	83.46	82.47	-1.06	KHC ahead
2025-03-25	81.65	80.83	-1.10	KHC ahead
2025-03-24	81.44	80.89	-1.16	KHC ahead
2025-03-21	81.74	82.00	-1.33	KHC ahead
2025-03-20	82.48	82.53	-1.30	KHC ahead
2025-03-19	83.21	83.03	-1.26	KHC ahead
2025-03-18	84.54	84.42	-1.29	KHC ahead
2025-03-17	85.09	85.17	-1.33	KHC ahead
2025-03-14	83.65	83.97	-1.39	KHC ahead
2025-03-13	83.78	83.86	-1.35	KHC ahead
2025-03-12	83.48	84.17	-1.47	KHC ahead
2025-03-11	86.24	86.39	-1.36	KHC ahead
2025-03-10	89.73	89.50	-1.28	KHC ahead
2025-03-07	87.66	89.39	-1.65	KHC ahead
2025-03-06	85.21	86.89	-1.64	KHC ahead
2025-03-05	81.21	86.08	-2.30	KHC ahead
2025-03-04	81.24	86.06	-2.30	KHC ahead
2025-03-03	82.59	87.00	-2.21	KHC ahead
2025-02-28	83.69	85.31	-1.65	KHC ahead
2025-02-27	82.61	85.14	-1.82	KHC ahead
2025-02-26	83.30	85.06	-1.66	KHC ahead
2025-02-25	86.45	88.14	-1.62	KHC ahead
2025-02-24	85.82	87.11	-1.54	KHC ahead
2025-02-21	85.44	86.47	-1.48	KHC ahead
2025-02-20	82.54	83.78	-1.53	KHC ahead
2025-02-19	81.63	82.75	-1.51	KHC ahead
2025-02-18	81.40	81.44	-1.30	KHC ahead
2025-02-14	81.74	80.33	-0.99	KHC ahead
2025-02-13	81.05	81.25	-1.30	KHC ahead
2025-02-12	80.18	79.50	-1.11	KHC ahead
2025-02-11	82.34	82.17	-1.19	KHC ahead
2025-02-10	81.72	80.44	-0.96	KHC ahead
2025-02-07	81.13	81.39	-1.24	KHC ahead
2025-02-06	80.76	80.58	-1.14	KHC ahead
2025-02-05	82.36	79.47	-0.62	KHC ahead
2025-02-04	84.20	79.72	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2025-02-03	88.69	81.33	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2025-01-31	90.83	82.89	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2025-01-30	91.61	84.08	+0.17	near the usual relationship
2025-01-29	91.60	82.39	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-01-28	89.70	82.19	+0.21	near the usual relationship
2025-01-27	92.50	83.89	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-01-24	89.56	81.42	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-01-23	89.82	80.75	+0.50	ADM ahead
2025-01-22	89.57	80.75	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-01-21	90.82	81.89	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-01-17	90.94	81.31	+0.56	ADM ahead
2025-01-16	90.44	80.47	+0.62	ADM ahead
2025-01-15	90.67	79.81	+0.77	ADM ahead
2025-01-14	90.76	79.75	+0.79	ADM ahead
2025-01-13	92.41	79.94	+1.00	ADM ahead
2025-01-10	90.59	79.19	+0.85	ADM ahead
2025-01-08	88.37	82.39	-0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-01-07	87.64	82.69	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2025-01-06	88.00	83.47	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2025-01-03	88.74	85.03	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2025-01-02	89.04	85.47	-0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-12-31	89.57	85.31	-0.34	near the usual relationship
2024-12-30	88.78	84.33	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2024-12-27	89.68	85.22	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-12-26	89.73	84.86	-0.27	near the usual relationship
2024-12-24	89.77	85.11	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2024-12-23	89.38	84.61	-0.30	near the usual relationship
2024-12-20	89.52	84.78	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2024-12-19	87.55	83.61	-0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-12-18	88.39	84.17	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-12-17	91.29	86.81	-0.38	near the usual relationship
2024-12-16	91.65	86.03	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2024-12-13	92.91	88.03	-0.35	near the usual relationship
2024-12-12	94.11	87.64	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2024-12-11	93.83	86.92	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2024-12-10	92.34	87.75	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2024-12-09	92.16	88.11	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2024-12-06	91.17	85.58	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2024-12-05	92.70	85.86	-0.13	near the usual relationship
2024-12-04	91.79	86.11	-0.28	near the usual relationship
2024-12-03	94.27	87.36	-0.15	near the usual relationship
2024-12-02	96.22	87.81	+0.01	near the usual relationship
2024-11-29	96.81	88.81	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2024-11-27	96.40	88.69	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2024-11-26	95.25	88.81	-0.25	near the usual relationship
2024-11-25	93.99	88.94	-0.41	near the usual relationship
2024-11-22	94.20	88.36	-0.33	near the usual relationship
2024-11-21	94.31	86.36	-0.08	near the usual relationship
2024-11-20	94.89	85.78	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2024-11-19	93.95	84.94	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2024-11-18	93.46	86.31	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2024-11-15	94.59	86.50	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2024-11-14	93.10	88.31	-0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-11-13	91.97	89.25	-0.70	KHC ahead
2024-11-12	91.19	88.89	-0.75	KHC ahead
2024-11-11	92.84	90.36	-0.74	KHC ahead
2024-11-08	92.43	91.67	-0.93	KHC ahead
2024-11-07	93.07	91.17	-0.82	KHC ahead
2024-11-06	94.43	92.83	-0.86	KHC ahead
2024-11-05	92.20	93.08	-1.11	KHC ahead
2024-11-04	98.05	92.72	-0.51	KHC ahead
2024-11-01	96.88	93.03	-0.66	KHC ahead
2024-10-31	97.89	92.94	-0.56	KHC ahead
2024-10-30	98.46	93.69	-0.58	KHC ahead
2024-10-29	99.86	96.67	-0.74	KHC ahead
2024-10-28	101.49	97.58	-0.69	KHC ahead
2024-10-25	100.28	96.50	-0.70	KHC ahead
2024-10-24	100.18	97.31	-0.79	KHC ahead
2024-10-23	99.43	98.61	-0.97	KHC ahead
2024-10-22	98.74	99.00	-1.07	KHC ahead
2024-10-21	99.52	98.58	-0.97	KHC ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	-1.06	KHC ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Jan 21, 2026 (ADM +2.8%, KHC -5.7%). Upcoming earnings: ADM Nov 3, 2026 (pre-market); KHC Nov 4, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

ADM and KHC at a glance

ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 7084
Industry: Packaged Foods · SIC 2070 Fats & Oils
Market value: $38.8B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

KHC The Kraft Heinz Company

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1637459
Industry: Packaged Foods · SIC 2030 Canned, Frozen & Preservd Fruit, Veg & Food Specialties
Market value: $27.5B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

All pairs →

Pair	Status	Ahead now	Industry
ADM / BG	Watchlist	ADM by 1.87 sd	SIC 2070 Fats & Oils
MDLZ / KHC	Watchlist	MDLZ by 0.85 sd	Packaged Foods
MDLZ / ADM	Watchlist	neither	Packaged Foods

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.