Archer-Daniels-Midland Company vs Bunge Limited
WatchlistADM / BGPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($39B vs $20B) with SEC SIC 2070 (Fats & Oils).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.13 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 432.47 (needs <= 63)
Business leadership
ADM is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | ADM | BG | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $80.3B | $70.3B | ADM |
| 2024 | $85.5B | $53.1B | ADM |
| 2023 | $93.9B | $59.5B | ADM |
| 2022 | $101.6B | $67.2B | ADM |
| 2021 | $85.2B | $59.2B | ADM |
| 2020 | $64.4B | - | - |
ADM led in every year with figures for both. Market value: ADM $38.8B, BG $19.8B.
Stock leadership
ADM is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
ADM leads BG by 1.87 standard deviations: +20.2% over its usual price ratio. 1 lead switch in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | -7.1% | +14.0% | +29.4% |
| BG | -15.1% | -18.4% | +8.9% |
Relationship
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Pass
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.74 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.13 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Fail
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 432.47 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company BG Bunge LimitedPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: ADM relative to BG, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: ADM ahead; below 0: BG ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | ADM index | BG index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 141.56 | 115.19 | +1.87 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 140.71 | 114.16 | +1.93 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 142.66 | 115.02 | +2.01 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-19 | 142.75 | 115.14 | +2.03 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-16 | 146.47 | 118.53 | +2.02 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 147.04 | 119.50 | +1.98 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 148.30 | 121.62 | +1.89 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 147.52 | 120.11 | +1.97 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 142.59 | 116.38 | +1.95 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 141.65 | 114.72 | +2.03 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 146.19 | 120.40 | +1.86 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 144.22 | 117.82 | +1.95 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 145.76 | 119.85 | +1.89 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 146.22 | 119.84 | +1.94 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 142.64 | 119.17 | +1.74 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 140.99 | 119.05 | +1.63 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-30 | 140.74 | 119.43 | +1.58 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-29 | 140.78 | 120.76 | +1.46 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-28 | 142.52 | 121.79 | +1.50 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-25 | 143.83 | 121.72 | +1.59 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 145.18 | 123.07 | +1.57 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-23 | 145.66 | 124.49 | +1.47 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-22 | 145.99 | 122.84 | +1.63 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 147.84 | 125.75 | +1.51 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-18 | 151.03 | 129.07 | +1.46 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-17 | 156.19 | 133.23 | +1.48 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-16 | 150.71 | 130.80 | +1.29 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-15 | 153.56 | 135.97 | +1.07 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-14 | 153.26 | 135.38 | +1.09 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-11 | 153.76 | 136.69 | +1.02 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-10 | 154.10 | 139.13 | +0.85 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-09 | 153.46 | 137.91 | +0.90 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 149.82 | 138.35 | +0.61 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-04 | 150.02 | 132.56 | +1.06 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-03 | 149.61 | 134.14 | +0.90 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-02 | 151.38 | 137.20 | +0.78 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-09-01 | 149.91 | 135.16 | +0.83 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 144.13 | 129.77 | +0.84 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-28 | 144.57 | 128.96 | +0.93 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 140.25 | 124.59 | +0.97 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 142.00 | 126.47 | +0.94 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 140.35 | 124.75 | +0.96 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 138.58 | 123.02 | +0.97 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-21 | 142.38 | 126.31 | +0.97 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-20 | 144.86 | 130.17 | +0.84 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-19 | 143.19 | 127.30 | +0.94 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-18 | 146.19 | 127.71 | +1.12 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-17 | 144.13 | 128.32 | +0.93 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-14 | 142.64 | 126.96 | +0.93 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-13 | 142.11 | 125.88 | +0.98 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-12 | 141.37 | 124.79 | +1.01 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-11 | 142.66 | 124.62 | +1.12 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-10 | 142.71 | 125.80 | +1.03 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 135.80 | 121.03 | +0.92 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-06 | 137.43 | 121.72 | +0.98 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 137.55 | 119.06 | +1.22 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 141.61 | 119.18 | +1.51 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 138.40 | 117.70 | +1.41 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 140.55 | 118.63 | +1.50 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 142.93 | 117.33 | +1.79 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 142.52 | 120.36 | +1.51 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 147.48 | 131.07 | +0.99 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-27 | 147.50 | 131.21 | +0.97 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-24 | 152.34 | 135.71 | +0.96 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-23 | 153.10 | 136.57 | +0.94 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 154.82 | 138.34 | +0.92 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-21 | 152.84 | 135.73 | +0.98 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | 151.90 | 134.55 | +1.00 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-17 | 152.30 | 133.05 | +1.14 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 147.16 | 129.35 | +1.08 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-15 | 145.92 | 129.22 | +1.00 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 145.89 | 130.24 | +0.92 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 145.46 | 131.10 | +0.82 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 142.57 | 127.66 | +0.89 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-09 | 140.04 | 126.88 | +0.77 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-08 | 142.36 | 128.68 | +0.79 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 138.65 | 123.85 | +0.91 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-06 | 138.17 | 121.47 | +1.07 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-02 | 136.15 | 118.88 | +1.14 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-07-01 | 135.83 | 117.13 | +1.28 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-30 | 135.46 | 119.18 | +1.08 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-29 | 136.29 | 121.83 | +0.92 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-26 | 136.15 | 123.44 | +0.78 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-25 | 135.71 | 124.57 | +0.66 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-24 | 133.12 | 121.71 | +0.71 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-23 | 134.47 | 123.80 | +0.64 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-22 | 135.27 | 124.42 | +0.65 | ADM ahead |
| 2026-06-18 | 133.16 | 125.72 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-17 | 135.64 | 129.69 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-16 | 138.33 | 133.36 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-15 | 140.55 | 137.35 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-12 | 142.27 | 142.01 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-11 | 139.89 | 139.90 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-10 | 144.11 | 143.17 | -0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-09 | 142.06 | 141.46 | -0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-08 | 142.23 | 140.15 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-05 | 143.48 | 141.22 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-04 | 147.82 | 144.52 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-03 | 149.13 | 146.74 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-02 | 146.21 | 144.20 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-01 | 146.49 | 145.14 | -0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-29 | 141.45 | 137.69 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-28 | 141.91 | 138.14 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-27 | 141.05 | 135.32 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-26 | 138.32 | 134.12 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-22 | 137.45 | 134.80 | +0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-21 | 136.74 | 134.52 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-20 | 137.50 | 133.95 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-19 | 140.76 | 136.53 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-18 | 143.46 | 139.18 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-15 | 142.55 | 136.74 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-14 | 144.34 | 137.53 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-13 | 146.97 | 140.73 | +0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-12 | 143.14 | 140.94 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-11 | 141.56 | 140.86 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-08 | 137.70 | 139.52 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-07 | 137.46 | 138.19 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-06 | 138.33 | 140.76 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-05 | 140.41 | 145.59 | -0.53 | BG ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 135.23 | 142.51 | -0.69 | BG ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 132.87 | 139.15 | -0.63 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 132.16 | 141.90 | -0.88 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 131.68 | 141.05 | -0.86 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 129.08 | 141.11 | -1.07 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 125.07 | 138.51 | -1.21 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 122.75 | 139.48 | -1.48 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 124.17 | 141.17 | -1.49 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 123.10 | 140.45 | -1.54 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 123.81 | 140.51 | -1.49 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-20 | 121.22 | 136.75 | -1.44 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-17 | 118.87 | 133.18 | -1.37 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-16 | 121.77 | 137.36 | -1.45 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-15 | 118.71 | 134.00 | -1.47 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-14 | 122.06 | 136.61 | -1.39 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-13 | 123.79 | 137.91 | -1.34 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 123.63 | 138.38 | -1.40 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 124.73 | 137.31 | -1.23 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-08 | 127.16 | 141.99 | -1.38 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 127.93 | 141.85 | -1.32 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 130.11 | 143.46 | -1.26 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 130.90 | 144.52 | -1.28 | BG ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 128.32 | 143.29 | -1.42 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 128.88 | 142.04 | -1.28 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 127.22 | 141.02 | -1.35 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 128.07 | 143.74 | -1.50 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 128.24 | 140.44 | -1.24 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 127.06 | 140.03 | -1.32 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 126.67 | 138.57 | -1.25 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 120.55 | 134.92 | -1.51 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 117.32 | 131.94 | -1.57 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 121.70 | 136.28 | -1.54 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 125.66 | 138.50 | -1.37 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 127.87 | 140.66 | -1.36 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 125.44 | 138.05 | -1.37 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 127.62 | 139.29 | -1.29 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 128.55 | 140.51 | -1.32 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 125.59 | 137.04 | -1.31 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 123.03 | 133.72 | -1.27 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 120.43 | 132.65 | -1.44 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 119.57 | 130.28 | -1.32 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 117.96 | 126.41 | -1.14 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 119.18 | 128.43 | -1.21 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 120.55 | 130.23 | -1.25 | BG ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 123.42 | 134.68 | -1.37 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-27 | 122.41 | 134.73 | -1.48 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-26 | 119.54 | 133.36 | -1.66 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-25 | 119.59 | 135.54 | -1.86 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 120.60 | 136.81 | -1.89 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-23 | 120.02 | 135.48 | -1.86 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-20 | 120.35 | 136.18 | -1.91 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-19 | 122.09 | 137.90 | -1.90 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 119.72 | 135.98 | -2.00 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 121.58 | 136.10 | -1.84 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-13 | 123.24 | 136.83 | -1.75 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-12 | 123.23 | 135.95 | -1.69 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-11 | 122.87 | 136.27 | -1.78 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-10 | 121.67 | 132.18 | -1.53 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-09 | 119.41 | 132.50 | -1.82 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-06 | 117.61 | 129.38 | -1.73 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 116.01 | 127.24 | -1.70 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 119.40 | 130.91 | -1.71 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-03 | 119.49 | 130.52 | -1.68 | BG ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 120.71 | 127.28 | -1.23 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 119.34 | 127.17 | -1.38 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 118.65 | 128.59 | -1.62 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 119.50 | 128.75 | -1.55 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 120.98 | 129.70 | -1.50 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-26 | 119.45 | 127.18 | -1.42 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 119.70 | 126.86 | -1.37 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 119.01 | 125.81 | -1.34 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 120.04 | 125.15 | -1.16 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 116.81 | 122.90 | -1.29 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 115.57 | 120.39 | -1.17 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 118.03 | 121.53 | -1.01 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 114.54 | 117.77 | -0.99 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 112.38 | 114.56 | -0.88 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 110.28 | 112.81 | -0.93 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 109.82 | 111.66 | -0.85 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 108.49 | 108.89 | -0.68 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 103.76 | 103.39 | -0.58 | BG ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 107.25 | 105.37 | -0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-05 | 105.64 | 104.30 | -0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-02 | 104.70 | 103.45 | -0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-31 | 101.93 | 99.48 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-30 | 103.14 | 100.15 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-29 | 103.23 | 99.79 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-26 | 102.68 | 99.48 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-24 | 102.45 | 99.04 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-23 | 101.90 | 98.88 | -0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-22 | 102.57 | 100.27 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-19 | 103.26 | 102.14 | -0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-18 | 103.37 | 102.42 | -0.50 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-17 | 103.83 | 103.75 | -0.61 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-16 | 102.80 | 103.03 | -0.66 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-15 | 106.74 | 103.39 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-12 | 106.40 | 103.67 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-11 | 106.24 | 104.15 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-10 | 103.21 | 102.18 | -0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-09 | 102.96 | 102.12 | -0.50 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-08 | 102.73 | 102.64 | -0.59 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-05 | 104.63 | 104.56 | -0.59 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 105.25 | 105.40 | -0.62 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-03 | 106.03 | 106.41 | -0.64 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-02 | 106.93 | 107.26 | -0.63 | BG ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 107.30 | 107.67 | -0.63 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 107.70 | 107.28 | -0.53 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 107.36 | 107.74 | -0.63 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 105.85 | 107.77 | -0.82 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 103.99 | 104.42 | -0.63 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 103.95 | 105.62 | -0.78 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 102.61 | 103.63 | -0.70 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 103.24 | 104.02 | -0.66 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 108.21 | 107.36 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-17 | 104.15 | 104.94 | -0.65 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-14 | 103.92 | 107.21 | -0.96 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-13 | 104.31 | 108.21 | -1.03 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-12 | 102.39 | 107.54 | -1.18 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-11 | 102.18 | 107.71 | -1.23 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 99.29 | 106.16 | -1.43 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 101.03 | 105.77 | -1.15 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 100.57 | 105.83 | -1.23 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 99.80 | 106.72 | -1.45 | BG ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 106.60 | 104.86 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-03 | 106.54 | 104.99 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-31 | 107.32 | 105.64 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-30 | 107.61 | 106.24 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-29 | 107.30 | 107.31 | -0.57 | BG ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 108.81 | 107.62 | -0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-27 | 109.82 | 107.67 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-24 | 112.29 | 109.21 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-23 | 110.83 | 107.97 | -0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-22 | 109.77 | 106.62 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-21 | 109.43 | 105.78 | -0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-20 | 112.04 | 108.60 | -0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-17 | 112.29 | 108.88 | -0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-16 | 111.52 | 106.45 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-15 | 112.38 | 103.95 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-14 | 109.66 | 92.03 | +1.75 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-13 | 109.29 | 90.43 | +1.96 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 107.87 | 90.20 | +1.84 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-09 | 108.71 | 90.75 | +1.88 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 110.32 | 92.06 | +1.90 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 111.51 | 93.82 | +1.81 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 110.73 | 93.95 | +1.72 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-03 | 108.23 | 93.77 | +1.45 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 104.80 | 92.71 | +1.19 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 105.05 | 92.12 | +1.32 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 105.92 | 90.73 | +1.64 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 106.93 | 92.05 | +1.59 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 107.45 | 91.54 | +1.75 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 108.28 | 88.65 | +2.33 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 109.01 | 88.21 | +2.53 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 107.62 | 87.62 | +2.49 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 106.13 | 86.14 | +2.57 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 109.31 | 88.41 | +2.67 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 107.85 | 89.22 | +2.38 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 108.32 | 89.79 | +2.39 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 110.55 | 93.46 | +2.13 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 107.32 | 89.67 | +2.34 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 109.17 | 91.14 | +2.38 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 108.90 | 91.50 | +2.32 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 108.88 | 91.95 | +2.27 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 110.27 | 93.97 | +2.16 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 110.46 | 94.18 | +2.18 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 111.60 | 94.17 | +2.38 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 109.82 | 90.60 | +2.79 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 109.43 | 90.71 | +2.76 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 110.02 | 90.92 | +2.87 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 111.06 | 94.05 | +2.51 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 111.10 | 94.51 | +2.47 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 111.19 | 94.55 | +2.52 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 111.38 | 94.84 | +2.54 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 113.85 | 98.44 | +2.31 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 111.56 | 97.28 | +2.19 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 108.37 | 93.13 | +2.49 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 107.68 | 91.98 | +2.64 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 106.31 | 89.19 | +3.03 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 105.80 | 89.97 | +2.84 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 105.94 | 91.32 | +2.63 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 105.18 | 91.68 | +2.46 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-13 | 106.06 | 92.95 | +2.39 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-12 | 103.83 | 92.15 | +2.18 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-11 | 103.33 | 91.81 | +2.19 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-08 | 102.55 | 92.62 | +1.90 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-07 | 102.59 | 92.41 | +1.97 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-06 | 100.59 | 90.42 | +2.03 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 102.16 | 92.03 | +2.01 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-04 | 96.38 | 90.01 | +1.31 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-08-01 | 95.48 | 87.10 | +1.77 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-31 | 96.06 | 89.07 | +1.46 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-30 | 97.87 | 89.67 | +1.70 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 96.10 | 85.25 | +2.35 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 97.09 | 85.65 | +2.48 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 98.14 | 86.29 | +2.57 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 98.40 | 85.91 | +2.75 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 99.68 | 87.27 | +2.73 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-22 | 98.24 | 84.51 | +3.14 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 96.01 | 82.90 | +3.13 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-18 | 96.44 | 83.10 | +3.24 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-17 | 94.93 | 81.70 | +3.34 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-16 | 95.74 | 81.52 | +3.66 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-15 | 95.27 | 82.87 | +3.27 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-14 | 96.28 | 83.74 | +3.35 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-11 | 97.41 | 85.70 | +3.16 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-10 | 97.32 | 85.47 | +3.26 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-09 | 95.74 | 84.47 | +3.22 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-08 | 96.72 | 84.65 | +3.48 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-07 | 96.67 | 83.58 | +3.86 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-03 | 98.07 | 87.59 | +3.13 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-02 | 99.11 | 90.89 | +2.52 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-07-01 | 96.54 | 89.61 | +2.25 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-30 | 93.58 | 89.65 | +1.49 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-27 | 92.16 | 89.83 | +1.08 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-26 | 94.27 | 91.90 | +1.08 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-25 | 92.73 | 91.81 | +0.72 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-24 | 93.85 | 93.34 | +0.62 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-23 | 93.65 | 93.97 | +0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-20 | 95.05 | 95.34 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-18 | 95.73 | 95.53 | +0.55 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-17 | 95.92 | 95.69 | +0.57 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-16 | 96.03 | 96.35 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-13 | 92.20 | 90.91 | +0.85 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-12 | 88.05 | 86.02 | +1.08 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-11 | 86.29 | 84.28 | +1.09 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-10 | 86.42 | 84.91 | +0.96 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-09 | 84.93 | 83.38 | +0.99 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-06 | 84.08 | 83.25 | +0.80 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-05 | 83.30 | 82.47 | +0.81 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-04 | 83.76 | 83.29 | +0.71 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-06-03 | 83.83 | 85.17 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-02 | 85.28 | 87.52 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-30 | 85.59 | 87.27 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-29 | 85.76 | 88.46 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-28 | 85.73 | 88.64 | -0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-27 | 86.22 | 88.49 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-23 | 85.00 | 87.21 | +0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-22 | 85.04 | 86.88 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-21 | 85.64 | 87.33 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-20 | 88.94 | 89.78 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-19 | 88.67 | 89.67 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-16 | 88.88 | 91.06 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-15 | 86.63 | 89.36 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-14 | 87.61 | 91.50 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-13 | 89.88 | 92.59 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-12 | 88.48 | 89.50 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-09 | 86.05 | 86.38 | +0.55 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-05-08 | 84.57 | 85.17 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-07 | 84.89 | 84.76 | +0.68 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-05-06 | 85.67 | 87.28 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-05 | 84.22 | 86.90 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-02 | 84.84 | 88.45 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-01 | 84.36 | 87.64 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-30 | 84.66 | 87.91 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-29 | 84.72 | 89.61 | -0.58 | BG ahead |
| 2025-04-28 | 85.20 | 90.07 | -0.56 | BG ahead |
| 2025-04-25 | 85.55 | 90.35 | -0.53 | BG ahead |
| 2025-04-24 | 86.49 | 90.23 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-23 | 85.32 | 89.13 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-22 | 86.06 | 89.44 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-21 | 85.27 | 88.00 | -0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-17 | 84.79 | 88.17 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-16 | 81.79 | 85.29 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-15 | 81.68 | 85.09 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-14 | 82.32 | 86.06 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-11 | 81.28 | 85.20 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-10 | 78.87 | 81.78 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-09 | 78.69 | 82.96 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-08 | 74.10 | 77.62 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-07 | 76.21 | 80.22 | -0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-04 | 76.81 | 81.74 | -0.65 | BG ahead |
| 2025-04-03 | 84.34 | 87.33 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-02 | 85.05 | 87.11 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-04-01 | 85.48 | 86.93 | +0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-31 | 85.12 | 85.34 | +0.63 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-28 | 84.88 | 85.35 | +0.56 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-27 | 85.60 | 85.43 | +0.73 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-26 | 83.46 | 82.85 | +0.84 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-25 | 81.65 | 82.02 | +0.59 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-24 | 81.44 | 81.21 | +0.74 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-21 | 81.74 | 81.80 | +0.67 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-20 | 82.48 | 82.58 | +0.66 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-19 | 83.21 | 84.02 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-03-18 | 84.54 | 83.43 | +0.97 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-17 | 85.09 | 83.25 | +1.17 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-14 | 83.65 | 82.50 | +1.00 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 83.78 | 82.18 | +1.13 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-12 | 83.48 | 81.66 | +1.19 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-11 | 86.24 | 83.09 | +1.54 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-10 | 89.73 | 85.21 | +1.87 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-07 | 87.66 | 84.42 | +1.58 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-06 | 85.21 | 83.36 | +1.25 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-05 | 81.21 | 80.08 | +1.08 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-04 | 81.24 | 80.07 | +1.10 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-03-03 | 82.59 | 80.21 | +1.43 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-28 | 83.69 | 82.85 | +1.02 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-27 | 82.61 | 81.80 | +1.02 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-26 | 83.30 | 81.81 | +1.21 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-25 | 86.45 | 82.94 | +1.74 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-24 | 85.82 | 82.17 | +1.80 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-21 | 85.44 | 81.59 | +1.88 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-20 | 82.54 | 79.58 | +1.69 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-19 | 81.63 | 78.37 | +1.80 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-18 | 81.40 | 78.03 | +1.85 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-14 | 81.74 | 78.73 | +1.77 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-13 | 81.05 | 77.93 | +1.82 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-12 | 80.18 | 77.13 | +1.83 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-11 | 82.34 | 78.08 | +2.19 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-10 | 81.72 | 77.23 | +2.30 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-07 | 81.13 | 77.72 | +2.01 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-06 | 80.76 | 77.38 | +2.03 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-05 | 82.36 | 78.02 | +2.33 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-04 | 84.20 | 83.77 | +1.16 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-02-03 | 88.69 | 83.93 | +2.38 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-31 | 90.83 | 85.01 | +2.69 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-30 | 91.61 | 86.71 | +2.46 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-29 | 91.60 | 87.35 | +2.30 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-28 | 89.70 | 86.28 | +2.12 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-27 | 92.50 | 87.86 | +2.47 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-24 | 89.56 | 86.20 | +2.16 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-23 | 89.82 | 87.85 | +1.77 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-22 | 89.57 | 87.00 | +1.85 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-21 | 90.82 | 87.81 | +1.88 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-17 | 90.94 | 88.82 | +1.58 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-16 | 90.44 | 88.67 | +1.43 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-15 | 90.67 | 89.83 | +1.15 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-14 | 90.76 | 91.13 | +0.82 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-13 | 92.41 | 91.56 | +1.06 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-10 | 90.59 | 90.70 | +0.81 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-08 | 88.37 | 86.41 | +1.24 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-07 | 87.64 | 86.89 | +0.94 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-06 | 88.00 | 87.08 | +0.95 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-03 | 88.74 | 86.30 | +1.24 | ADM ahead |
| 2025-01-02 | 89.04 | 86.62 | +1.21 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-31 | 89.57 | 86.83 | +1.24 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-30 | 88.78 | 85.86 | +1.26 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-27 | 89.68 | 87.18 | +1.15 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-26 | 89.73 | 87.17 | +1.15 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-24 | 89.77 | 88.33 | +0.91 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-23 | 89.38 | 88.27 | +0.84 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-20 | 89.52 | 88.33 | +0.84 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-19 | 87.55 | 87.01 | +0.71 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-18 | 88.39 | 88.36 | +0.60 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-17 | 91.29 | 90.75 | +0.67 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-16 | 91.65 | 90.28 | +0.79 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-13 | 92.91 | 92.29 | +0.65 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-12 | 94.11 | 93.34 | +0.66 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-12-11 | 93.83 | 94.68 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-10 | 92.34 | 94.60 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-09 | 92.16 | 95.48 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-06 | 91.17 | 93.80 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-05 | 92.70 | 96.26 | -0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-04 | 91.79 | 96.66 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-03 | 94.27 | 98.56 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-02 | 96.22 | 99.49 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-29 | 96.81 | 100.21 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-27 | 96.40 | 99.29 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-26 | 95.25 | 100.12 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-25 | 93.99 | 98.76 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-22 | 94.20 | 97.88 | -0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-21 | 94.31 | 98.68 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-20 | 94.89 | 98.36 | -0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-19 | 93.95 | 99.93 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-18 | 93.46 | 101.97 | -0.85 | BG ahead |
| 2024-11-15 | 94.59 | 101.17 | -0.58 | BG ahead |
| 2024-11-14 | 93.10 | 98.34 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-13 | 91.97 | 96.73 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-12 | 91.19 | 97.67 | -0.61 | BG ahead |
| 2024-11-11 | 92.84 | 97.99 | -0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-08 | 92.43 | 97.29 | -0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-07 | 93.07 | 96.94 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-06 | 94.43 | 95.77 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-05 | 92.20 | 94.70 | -0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-04 | 98.05 | 93.80 | +0.85 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-11-01 | 96.88 | 92.26 | +0.91 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-10-31 | 97.89 | 93.82 | +0.82 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-10-30 | 98.46 | 95.88 | +0.61 | ADM ahead |
| 2024-10-29 | 99.86 | 98.09 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-28 | 101.49 | 100.36 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-25 | 100.28 | 100.26 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-24 | 100.18 | 100.74 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-23 | 99.43 | 99.37 | +0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-22 | 98.74 | 99.80 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-21 | 99.52 | 99.22 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | +0.21 | near the usual relationship |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 15, 2025 (ADM +2.5%, BG +13.0%); Nov 5, 2025 (ADM -6.4%, BG +1.8%). Upcoming earnings: BG Oct 29, 2026 (pre-market); ADM Nov 3, 2026 (pre-market).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
1 simulated trade to Oct 20, 2026: +10.25% per trade on average after costs, 1 won.
| Legs | Entered | Exited | Why | Days | Before costs | Costs + borrow | After costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long ADM · Short BG | Oct 29, 2021 | Jan 28, 2022 | converged | 91 | $1,084.01 | -$78.65 | $1,025.38 (+10.25%) |
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
ADM and BG at a glance
ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 7084
- Industry
- Packaged Foods · SIC 2070 Fats & Oils
- Market value
- $38.8B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
BG Bunge Limited
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 1996862
- Industry
- Packaged Foods · SIC 2070 Fats & Oils
- Market value
- $19.8B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of ADM and BG
| Pair | Status | Ahead now | Industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADM / KHC | Watchlist | ADM by 0.43 sd | Packaged Foods |
| MDLZ / ADM | Watchlist | neither | Packaged Foods |
Follow the research behind the paper book
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Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
