Howmet Aerospace Inc. vs Mueller Industries Inc.
WatchlistHWM / MLIPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($88B vs $13B) with SEC SIC 3350 (Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.30 (needs >= 0.60)
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.02 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Business leadership
HWM is the larger business
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
| Year | HWM | MLI | Larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $8.3B | $4.2B | HWM |
| 2024 | $7.4B | $3.8B | HWM |
| 2023 | $6.6B | $3.4B | HWM |
| 2022 | $5.7B | $4.0B | HWM |
| 2021 | $5.0B | $3.8B | HWM |
| 2020 | $5.3B | $2.4B | HWM |
HWM led in every year with figures for both. Market value: HWM $87.7B, MLI $13.5B.
Stock leadership
MLI is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
MLI leads HWM by 1.03 standard deviations: +10.5% over its usual price ratio. 5 lead switches in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| HWM | -33.2% | -21.5% | -2.0% |
| MLI | -14.7% | -19.7% | +4.5% |
Relationship
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Fail
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.30 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.02 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Pass
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 20.72 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. MLI Mueller Industries Inc.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: HWM relative to MLI, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: HWM ahead; below 0: MLI ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | HWM index | MLI index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 183.14 | 150.99 | -1.03 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 197.22 | 159.32 | -0.82 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 200.52 | 157.30 | -0.52 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-19 | 208.48 | 168.41 | -0.83 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-16 | 209.36 | 166.33 | -0.66 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 208.17 | 167.80 | -0.81 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 206.12 | 168.21 | -0.94 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 205.46 | 170.32 | -1.11 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 209.22 | 168.54 | -0.82 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 213.44 | 168.10 | -0.58 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 210.88 | 167.49 | -0.67 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 211.06 | 166.75 | -0.62 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 219.44 | 174.80 | -0.71 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 217.52 | 174.36 | -0.78 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 219.13 | 173.22 | -0.63 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 216.39 | 169.79 | -0.56 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-09-30 | 214.31 | 167.83 | -0.54 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-09-29 | 218.82 | 168.32 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-28 | 216.34 | 168.82 | -0.50 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-09-25 | 220.28 | 167.58 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-24 | 217.34 | 166.19 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-23 | 216.77 | 167.05 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-22 | 213.53 | 165.86 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-21 | 215.43 | 165.94 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-18 | 217.61 | 166.33 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-17 | 213.91 | 167.05 | -0.51 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-09-16 | 215.78 | 167.63 | -0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-15 | 212.88 | 167.60 | -0.60 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-09-14 | 215.21 | 166.14 | -0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-11 | 217.56 | 167.47 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-10 | 215.95 | 166.58 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-09 | 220.41 | 176.41 | -0.77 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 219.38 | 176.05 | -0.80 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-09-04 | 245.66 | 176.49 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-03 | 246.82 | 174.33 | +0.55 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-09-02 | 239.68 | 171.87 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-09-01 | 241.51 | 169.02 | +0.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 232.09 | 172.81 | +0.01 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-08-28 | 250.95 | 173.89 | +0.77 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 253.60 | 177.71 | +0.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 255.20 | 177.43 | +0.75 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 250.18 | 170.32 | +0.98 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 249.47 | 175.69 | +0.63 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-21 | 257.42 | 175.05 | +1.00 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-20 | 259.28 | 171.56 | +1.30 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-19 | 268.60 | 173.70 | +1.55 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-18 | 277.29 | 178.54 | +1.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-17 | 273.94 | 184.49 | +1.15 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-14 | 274.00 | 182.47 | +1.28 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-13 | 267.97 | 184.47 | +0.93 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-12 | 266.85 | 189.06 | +0.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-11 | 266.57 | 189.53 | +0.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-10 | 268.82 | 190.78 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 267.08 | 190.64 | +0.54 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-06 | 274.51 | 192.33 | +0.74 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 276.12 | 191.78 | +0.83 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 273.07 | 189.26 | +0.85 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 271.31 | 184.27 | +1.07 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 267.44 | 183.88 | +0.94 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 262.73 | 185.13 | +0.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 258.47 | 181.09 | +0.73 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 271.03 | 184.11 | +1.06 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-27 | 272.83 | 177.68 | +1.52 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-24 | 274.08 | 176.96 | +1.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-23 | 272.02 | 174.80 | +1.68 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 265.97 | 173.50 | +1.51 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-21 | 264.35 | 172.50 | +1.51 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | 257.70 | 163.28 | +1.83 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-17 | 258.13 | 163.73 | +1.83 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 256.95 | 163.28 | +1.82 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-15 | 264.58 | 159.24 | +2.44 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 262.25 | 161.68 | +2.20 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 257.04 | 156.28 | +2.38 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 256.63 | 157.80 | +2.28 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-09 | 259.40 | 160.21 | +2.25 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-08 | 257.32 | 154.34 | +2.61 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 260.97 | 154.15 | +2.82 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-06 | 263.32 | 157.39 | +2.73 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-02 | 256.22 | 156.44 | +2.51 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-07-01 | 253.37 | 158.99 | +2.18 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-06-30 | 254.75 | 170.19 | +1.43 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-06-29 | 254.47 | 170.05 | +1.42 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-06-26 | 254.76 | 177.49 | +0.92 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-06-25 | 258.80 | 186.06 | +0.55 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-06-24 | 261.57 | 184.37 | +0.77 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-06-23 | 260.69 | 188.74 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-22 | 265.64 | 193.15 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-18 | 263.09 | 190.21 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-17 | 268.36 | 191.51 | +0.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 262.86 | 191.10 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-15 | 256.24 | 190.71 | +0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-12 | 250.78 | 191.18 | -0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-11 | 250.71 | 187.58 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-10 | 236.39 | 183.36 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-09 | 243.66 | 187.82 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-08 | 233.61 | 184.49 | -0.58 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 238.68 | 183.86 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-04 | 236.24 | 183.55 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-03 | 235.58 | 181.85 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-02 | 237.56 | 180.77 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-01 | 242.11 | 174.87 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-29 | 244.69 | 178.04 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-28 | 246.25 | 177.10 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-27 | 244.48 | 188.00 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-26 | 248.14 | 191.75 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-22 | 243.08 | 184.67 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-21 | 246.25 | 184.94 | -0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-20 | 247.50 | 185.63 | -0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-19 | 239.83 | 182.53 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-18 | 243.50 | 188.48 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-15 | 246.68 | 188.90 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-14 | 258.07 | 192.86 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-13 | 258.76 | 193.20 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-12 | 255.60 | 191.87 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-11 | 259.22 | 194.81 | -0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-08 | 256.36 | 194.97 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-07 | 258.23 | 190.72 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-06 | 242.97 | 192.62 | -0.69 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-05-05 | 229.95 | 188.65 | -1.05 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 227.12 | 181.16 | -0.76 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 226.94 | 184.18 | -0.95 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 230.28 | 187.50 | -0.98 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 224.10 | 183.95 | -1.07 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-28 | 227.81 | 187.79 | -1.12 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-27 | 229.01 | 188.98 | -1.13 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-24 | 229.71 | 188.32 | -1.07 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-23 | 233.24 | 187.93 | -0.88 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-22 | 228.24 | 186.82 | -1.05 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-21 | 234.72 | 186.52 | -0.73 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-04-20 | 242.20 | 167.38 | +0.75 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-17 | 242.27 | 169.08 | +0.65 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-16 | 234.60 | 163.71 | +0.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-15 | 240.70 | 167.05 | +0.72 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-14 | 244.49 | 171.34 | +0.63 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-13 | 242.69 | 170.62 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 239.41 | 167.74 | +0.64 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 240.72 | 167.34 | +0.73 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-08 | 236.88 | 164.00 | +0.77 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 223.63 | 156.24 | +0.69 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 224.15 | 156.03 | +0.73 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 220.47 | 153.29 | +0.75 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 226.49 | 155.79 | +0.87 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 218.36 | 153.40 | +0.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 211.28 | 149.37 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 215.94 | 150.15 | +0.78 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-26 | 218.41 | 151.60 | +0.80 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-25 | 228.94 | 155.06 | +1.05 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-24 | 226.94 | 153.81 | +1.05 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-23 | 223.65 | 152.33 | +1.01 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-20 | 219.07 | 149.19 | +1.02 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 220.71 | 152.21 | +0.90 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 229.23 | 152.93 | +1.23 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 227.63 | 153.47 | +1.14 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 228.09 | 153.05 | +1.19 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 224.32 | 151.78 | +1.12 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 231.02 | 153.45 | +1.30 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 238.44 | 157.70 | +1.35 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-10 | 240.58 | 158.12 | +1.41 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-09 | 240.80 | 158.48 | +1.41 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-06 | 237.00 | 158.69 | +1.26 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-05 | 239.14 | 161.93 | +1.16 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-04 | 246.44 | 164.35 | +1.31 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-03 | 245.25 | 163.74 | +1.31 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-03-02 | 251.19 | 164.85 | +1.49 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-27 | 248.75 | 163.31 | +1.50 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-26 | 246.65 | 166.77 | +1.23 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-25 | 246.01 | 164.18 | +1.36 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-24 | 247.25 | 166.25 | +1.30 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-23 | 243.55 | 163.71 | +1.32 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-20 | 244.55 | 166.25 | +1.22 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-19 | 238.11 | 164.89 | +1.05 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 236.26 | 161.97 | +1.16 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 239.29 | 164.43 | +1.14 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-13 | 237.08 | 165.39 | +1.01 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-12 | 231.94 | 164.54 | +0.86 | HWM ahead |
| 2026-02-11 | 218.73 | 166.93 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-10 | 212.69 | 165.14 | +0.02 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-09 | 213.33 | 160.46 | +0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-06 | 211.45 | 163.17 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-05 | 198.63 | 159.57 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-04 | 197.66 | 158.73 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-03 | 202.28 | 171.19 | -0.74 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 196.33 | 192.69 | -2.10 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 197.16 | 188.48 | -1.87 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 197.96 | 190.20 | -1.92 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 199.77 | 186.22 | -1.64 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 204.22 | 186.11 | -1.43 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-26 | 204.08 | 185.27 | -1.39 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 203.61 | 183.76 | -1.33 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 206.27 | 184.30 | -1.23 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 213.19 | 185.34 | -0.97 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 208.79 | 181.52 | -0.96 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 213.09 | 183.90 | -0.89 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 212.49 | 181.03 | -0.76 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 208.69 | 178.00 | -0.76 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 208.11 | 174.46 | -0.59 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 208.59 | 172.23 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-09 | 206.81 | 171.12 | -0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-08 | 199.00 | 167.98 | -0.61 | MLI ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 199.83 | 164.86 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-06 | 203.42 | 166.01 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-05 | 201.74 | 165.06 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-01-02 | 200.60 | 161.72 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-31 | 194.26 | 158.94 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-30 | 196.90 | 161.17 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-29 | 198.49 | 162.97 | -0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-26 | 200.13 | 163.55 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-24 | 201.03 | 163.81 | -0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-23 | 198.57 | 162.51 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-22 | 197.24 | 162.51 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-19 | 192.81 | 160.04 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-18 | 187.61 | 156.14 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-17 | 181.15 | 155.89 | -0.57 | MLI ahead |
| 2025-12-16 | 184.93 | 157.46 | -0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-15 | 186.89 | 158.69 | -0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-12 | 187.90 | 157.64 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-11 | 185.61 | 157.83 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-10 | 182.29 | 156.21 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-09 | 181.32 | 152.24 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-08 | 183.48 | 154.78 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-05 | 180.96 | 157.12 | -0.57 | MLI ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 185.97 | 156.47 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-03 | 184.09 | 154.51 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-02 | 185.96 | 153.32 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-12-01 | 188.31 | 151.83 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-28 | 193.85 | 152.11 | +0.17 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-26 | 193.89 | 152.82 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-25 | 192.99 | 152.06 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-24 | 189.62 | 149.52 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-21 | 186.92 | 147.57 | +0.16 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-20 | 187.53 | 144.72 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-19 | 191.45 | 147.92 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-18 | 190.66 | 146.26 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-17 | 189.77 | 145.11 | +0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-14 | 192.62 | 148.03 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-13 | 190.73 | 148.35 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-12 | 194.31 | 151.07 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-11 | 197.93 | 149.91 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-10 | 198.73 | 149.13 | +0.54 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 195.81 | 148.26 | +0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-06 | 194.92 | 147.40 | +0.50 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 195.48 | 149.43 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-04 | 194.26 | 148.50 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-11-03 | 195.89 | 149.52 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-31 | 195.14 | 146.57 | +0.57 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 191.18 | 145.95 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-29 | 192.80 | 145.04 | +0.57 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 190.49 | 144.55 | +0.53 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 191.25 | 143.58 | +0.59 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 188.09 | 142.59 | +0.54 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-23 | 189.60 | 144.28 | +0.53 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-22 | 181.19 | 144.28 | +0.29 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-21 | 186.83 | 144.51 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-20 | 182.41 | 138.82 | +0.54 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-17 | 179.72 | 136.47 | +0.56 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-16 | 181.62 | 136.47 | +0.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-15 | 182.18 | 137.27 | +0.61 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-14 | 182.90 | 138.32 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-13 | 180.02 | 135.97 | +0.61 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 174.43 | 134.24 | +0.52 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-09 | 178.92 | 135.59 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-08 | 181.59 | 138.85 | +0.56 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-07 | 181.41 | 136.62 | +0.65 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-06 | 180.48 | 137.96 | +0.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-03 | 179.32 | 139.14 | +0.50 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-02 | 181.05 | 139.21 | +0.56 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-10-01 | 184.62 | 138.38 | +0.70 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-30 | 185.93 | 139.98 | +0.68 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-29 | 181.85 | 138.82 | +0.61 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 183.01 | 140.38 | +0.59 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-25 | 179.88 | 138.36 | +0.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 180.23 | 137.92 | +0.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-23 | 183.42 | 140.80 | +0.61 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-22 | 182.06 | 139.83 | +0.61 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-19 | 180.24 | 137.98 | +0.63 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-18 | 181.77 | 138.79 | +0.65 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-17 | 175.66 | 136.73 | +0.56 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-16 | 177.62 | 136.83 | +0.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 179.32 | 136.81 | +0.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 176.02 | 137.01 | +0.57 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 174.54 | 136.88 | +0.54 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 174.15 | 135.08 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 169.58 | 132.12 | +0.59 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 170.01 | 134.69 | +0.50 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 168.85 | 135.04 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-04 | 170.11 | 134.81 | +0.51 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 165.33 | 131.97 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-02 | 164.13 | 132.47 | +0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-29 | 164.96 | 132.83 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-28 | 166.91 | 133.60 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-27 | 166.43 | 133.66 | +0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-26 | 166.69 | 132.87 | +0.51 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 162.25 | 130.97 | +0.45 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-22 | 162.02 | 130.62 | +0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-08-21 | 164.16 | 125.52 | +0.74 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 162.91 | 126.90 | +0.65 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 162.88 | 128.17 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 163.97 | 127.47 | +0.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 162.26 | 126.78 | +0.65 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 166.75 | 127.59 | +0.76 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-13 | 167.52 | 129.77 | +0.71 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-12 | 171.40 | 128.45 | +0.88 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-11 | 170.44 | 124.56 | +1.02 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-08 | 171.26 | 123.33 | +1.10 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-07 | 172.05 | 122.19 | +1.18 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-06 | 172.50 | 120.91 | +1.26 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 169.91 | 120.97 | +1.19 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-04 | 171.65 | 117.80 | +1.39 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-08-01 | 174.59 | 115.38 | +1.59 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-31 | 170.33 | 118.19 | +1.36 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-30 | 182.05 | 121.14 | +1.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 179.24 | 121.72 | +1.49 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 178.29 | 121.68 | +1.48 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-25 | 179.57 | 122.83 | +1.48 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-24 | 176.99 | 122.25 | +1.44 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 176.62 | 120.60 | +1.51 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-22 | 173.72 | 118.65 | +1.52 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 177.97 | 115.49 | +1.80 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-18 | 180.49 | 116.96 | +1.83 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-17 | 178.92 | 118.81 | +1.72 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-16 | 174.63 | 117.60 | +1.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-15 | 174.99 | 117.11 | +1.71 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-14 | 174.64 | 118.88 | +1.64 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-11 | 170.25 | 119.60 | +1.49 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-10 | 169.16 | 118.54 | +1.52 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-09 | 171.90 | 117.44 | +1.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-08 | 170.04 | 115.26 | +1.73 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-07 | 170.79 | 113.79 | +1.84 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-03 | 171.56 | 114.41 | +1.86 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-02 | 166.71 | 115.12 | +1.69 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-07-01 | 166.97 | 113.62 | +1.78 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-30 | 176.36 | 110.02 | +2.29 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-27 | 175.19 | 110.20 | +2.28 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-26 | 167.57 | 109.76 | +2.08 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-25 | 166.84 | 106.85 | +2.24 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-24 | 167.30 | 107.34 | +2.26 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-23 | 166.41 | 106.58 | +2.30 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-20 | 164.24 | 101.76 | +2.54 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-18 | 161.29 | 100.75 | +2.53 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-17 | 163.09 | 100.53 | +2.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-16 | 162.59 | 102.52 | +2.57 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-13 | 162.21 | 102.82 | +2.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-12 | 162.52 | 105.83 | +2.45 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-11 | 161.78 | 108.49 | +2.30 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-10 | 159.77 | 108.58 | +2.25 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-09 | 163.80 | 107.21 | +2.53 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-06 | 166.16 | 107.19 | +2.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-05 | 165.82 | 106.89 | +2.72 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-04 | 164.81 | 107.84 | +2.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-03 | 163.55 | 108.92 | +2.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-06-02 | 163.59 | 107.12 | +2.77 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-30 | 160.97 | 107.81 | +2.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-29 | 161.16 | 107.91 | +2.71 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-28 | 161.38 | 106.69 | +2.86 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-27 | 160.78 | 108.60 | +2.75 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-23 | 156.42 | 105.03 | +2.85 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-22 | 154.45 | 105.36 | +2.79 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-21 | 154.22 | 107.17 | +2.70 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-20 | 156.43 | 107.84 | +2.81 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-19 | 157.51 | 108.68 | +2.86 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-16 | 154.25 | 109.90 | +2.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-15 | 152.82 | 109.44 | +2.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-14 | 151.09 | 109.82 | +2.59 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-13 | 149.99 | 109.44 | +2.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-12 | 148.72 | 108.28 | +2.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-09 | 149.15 | 103.82 | +3.12 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-08 | 149.23 | 103.63 | +3.22 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-07 | 148.87 | 102.17 | +3.41 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-06 | 147.62 | 102.19 | +3.42 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-05 | 146.24 | 104.06 | +3.23 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-02 | 145.98 | 104.60 | +3.23 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-05-01 | 140.26 | 101.73 | +3.17 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-30 | 131.31 | 101.84 | +2.57 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-29 | 130.28 | 100.83 | +2.61 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-28 | 129.19 | 100.84 | +2.55 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-25 | 128.63 | 101.08 | +2.51 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-24 | 126.48 | 102.42 | +2.24 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-23 | 122.89 | 100.03 | +2.22 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-22 | 117.78 | 97.30 | +2.10 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-21 | 113.20 | 94.77 | +1.99 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-17 | 116.76 | 98.23 | +1.96 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-16 | 117.42 | 98.19 | +2.04 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-15 | 117.94 | 101.80 | +1.75 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-14 | 120.77 | 102.09 | +1.98 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-11 | 119.07 | 102.62 | +1.80 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-10 | 117.67 | 100.53 | +1.91 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-09 | 121.37 | 104.83 | +1.82 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-08 | 108.60 | 94.84 | +1.73 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-07 | 109.70 | 96.64 | +1.65 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-04 | 106.43 | 97.74 | +1.25 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-03 | 118.44 | 102.56 | +1.85 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-02 | 126.87 | 109.91 | +1.87 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-04-01 | 124.86 | 107.32 | +1.97 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-31 | 122.92 | 105.41 | +2.02 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-28 | 122.88 | 106.04 | +1.98 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-27 | 125.48 | 107.31 | +2.10 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-26 | 127.10 | 109.22 | +2.07 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-25 | 130.49 | 109.68 | +2.34 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-24 | 128.96 | 110.02 | +2.21 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-21 | 123.98 | 106.95 | +2.12 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-20 | 124.76 | 110.19 | +1.89 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-19 | 125.05 | 112.76 | +1.68 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-18 | 121.52 | 109.80 | +1.68 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-17 | 122.48 | 112.67 | +1.50 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-14 | 119.87 | 110.05 | +1.53 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 116.33 | 108.27 | +1.40 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-12 | 121.21 | 109.14 | +1.78 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-11 | 118.91 | 113.57 | +1.14 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-10 | 115.89 | 111.95 | +1.02 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-07 | 117.87 | 113.61 | +1.05 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-06 | 117.96 | 110.12 | +1.42 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-05 | 123.46 | 110.66 | +1.89 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-04 | 120.35 | 108.27 | +1.87 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-03-03 | 124.14 | 110.07 | +2.06 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-28 | 129.43 | 111.01 | +2.47 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-27 | 126.42 | 109.10 | +2.44 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-26 | 125.05 | 110.34 | +2.22 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-25 | 123.39 | 111.17 | +2.00 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-24 | 122.76 | 110.19 | +2.07 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-21 | 123.01 | 108.53 | +2.30 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-20 | 131.17 | 111.56 | +2.79 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-19 | 132.07 | 112.99 | +2.77 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-18 | 129.50 | 113.91 | +2.47 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-14 | 126.42 | 112.53 | +2.36 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-13 | 121.36 | 111.62 | +1.97 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-12 | 121.37 | 109.95 | +2.18 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-11 | 122.53 | 111.89 | +2.10 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-10 | 121.47 | 111.30 | +2.08 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-07 | 121.00 | 111.13 | +2.07 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-06 | 122.23 | 112.65 | +2.05 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-05 | 121.09 | 108.42 | +2.45 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-04 | 118.89 | 105.61 | +2.59 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-02-03 | 119.75 | 108.02 | +2.42 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-31 | 119.94 | 109.03 | +2.33 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-30 | 120.68 | 110.91 | +2.21 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-29 | 119.73 | 110.08 | +2.23 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-28 | 119.77 | 110.83 | +2.16 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-27 | 115.67 | 109.22 | +1.92 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-24 | 120.36 | 111.93 | +2.14 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-23 | 121.03 | 113.29 | +2.08 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-22 | 120.06 | 112.78 | +2.05 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-21 | 120.49 | 114.45 | +1.92 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-17 | 118.72 | 113.69 | +1.83 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-16 | 116.52 | 113.32 | +1.64 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-15 | 115.46 | 112.47 | +1.63 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-14 | 112.93 | 111.64 | +1.45 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-13 | 108.73 | 109.54 | +1.21 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-10 | 106.73 | 108.28 | +1.12 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-08 | 109.01 | 110.47 | +1.14 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-07 | 105.80 | 109.54 | +0.87 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-06 | 106.57 | 111.84 | +0.69 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-03 | 106.84 | 111.78 | +0.74 | HWM ahead |
| 2025-01-02 | 104.97 | 110.38 | +0.68 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-31 | 103.63 | 109.87 | +0.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-30 | 104.49 | 110.44 | +0.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-27 | 105.39 | 110.70 | +0.71 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-26 | 106.62 | 112.22 | +0.69 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-24 | 106.16 | 111.63 | +0.71 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-23 | 104.74 | 110.23 | +0.70 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-20 | 105.01 | 111.01 | +0.65 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-19 | 103.61 | 110.05 | +0.60 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-18 | 102.04 | 108.97 | +0.54 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-17 | 106.05 | 114.20 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-16 | 107.33 | 116.39 | +0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-12-13 | 107.48 | 114.19 | +0.62 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-12 | 107.73 | 114.84 | +0.58 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-11 | 109.99 | 116.41 | +0.67 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-10 | 108.09 | 110.98 | +1.06 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-09 | 107.78 | 108.07 | +1.36 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-06 | 112.10 | 108.99 | +1.76 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-05 | 113.77 | 109.28 | +1.93 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-04 | 113.79 | 108.93 | +2.00 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-03 | 112.86 | 109.21 | +1.89 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-12-02 | 111.51 | 111.80 | +1.45 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-11-29 | 112.17 | 111.82 | +1.53 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-11-27 | 110.57 | 111.91 | +1.35 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-11-26 | 111.03 | 112.61 | +1.34 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-11-25 | 109.76 | 113.73 | +1.07 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-11-22 | 112.22 | 121.69 | +0.48 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-21 | 110.84 | 126.96 | -0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-20 | 111.90 | 125.99 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-19 | 109.91 | 125.54 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-18 | 107.23 | 125.10 | -0.46 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-15 | 106.13 | 122.77 | -0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-14 | 107.28 | 124.81 | -0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-13 | 109.69 | 125.99 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-12 | 107.62 | 129.38 | -0.85 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-11-11 | 108.66 | 132.00 | -0.99 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-11-08 | 107.68 | 130.69 | -0.98 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-11-07 | 105.38 | 129.46 | -1.15 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-11-06 | 108.83 | 131.52 | -0.94 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-11-05 | 96.80 | 117.31 | -0.97 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-11-04 | 94.60 | 114.91 | -1.01 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-11-01 | 94.78 | 112.78 | -0.73 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-10-31 | 94.49 | 113.48 | -0.85 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-10-30 | 95.83 | 114.91 | -0.82 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-10-29 | 94.84 | 114.91 | -0.95 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-10-28 | 97.01 | 114.99 | -0.66 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-10-25 | 96.07 | 113.32 | -0.60 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-10-24 | 95.34 | 113.25 | -0.68 | MLI ahead |
| 2024-10-23 | 97.43 | 112.14 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-22 | 97.26 | 113.83 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-21 | 100.74 | 99.79 | +1.66 | HWM ahead |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | +1.55 | HWM ahead |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 22, 2024 (HWM -3.5%, MLI +14.1%); Feb 3, 2026 (HWM +3.0%, MLI -11.2%); Apr 21, 2026 (HWM -3.1%, MLI +11.4%); Sep 8, 2026 (HWM -10.7%, MLI -0.3%). Upcoming earnings: HWM Oct 29, 2026 (pre-market).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
No simulated trade through Oct 20, 2026: the pair rarely passed every test while 2 standard deviations apart.
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
HWM and MLI at a glance
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 4281
- Industry
- Metal Fabrications · SIC 3350 Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals
- Market value
- $87.7B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
MLI Mueller Industries Inc.
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 89439
- Industry
- Metal Fabrications · SIC 3350 Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals
- Market value
- $13.5B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Follow the research behind the paper book
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Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
