Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks

Caterpillar Inc. vs CNH Industrial N.V.

WatchlistCAT / CNHPrices through Oct 22, 2026

Why these are rivals: #1 and #2 by market value ($334B vs $14B) in Nasdaq's "Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks" industry; SEC SIC 3531 / 3531 (same major group); #1 and #2 by market value ($334B vs $14B) with SEC SIC 3531 (Construction Machinery & Equip).

Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.

Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.46 (needs >= 0.60)
Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.16 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))

Business leadership

CAT is the larger business

Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.

Year	CAT	CNH	Larger
2025	$67.6B	$18.1B	CAT
2024	$64.8B	$19.8B	CAT
2023	$67.1B	$24.7B	CAT
2022	$59.4B	$23.6B	CAT
2021	$51.0B	$19.5B	CAT
2020	$41.7B	$14.8B	CAT

CAT led in every year with figures for both. Market value: CAT $333.6B, CNH $13.9B.

Stock leadership

CNH is ahead now

Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.

CNH leads CAT by 0.69 standard deviations: +12.5% over its usual price ratio. 1 lead switch in the last year.

Price change	3 mo	6 mo	12 mo
CAT	-20.8%	-15.7%	+34.2%
CNH	+3.9%	+10.3%	+8.7%

Relationship

Not a measured twin today

Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.

Pass: Aligned sessions: 2520 (needs >= 254)
Fail: Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.46 (needs >= 0.60)
Fail: Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -2.16 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
Pass: Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 34.42 (needs <= 63)
Data: Both stocks current

The twins over two years

Prices side by side, and the gap between them

CAT Caterpillar Inc. CNH CNH Industrial N.V.Price index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).

Spread z-score: CAT relative to CNH, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: CAT ahead; below 0: CNH ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).

Data table (504 sessions)

Date	CAT index	CNH index	z	Ahead
2026-10-22	178.76	103.76	-0.69	CNH ahead
2026-10-21	187.94	103.23	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-10-20	184.14	103.41	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-10-19	184.28	100.54	-0.31	near the usual relationship
2026-10-16	185.54	103.94	-0.46	near the usual relationship
2026-10-15	186.78	107.08	-0.58	CNH ahead
2026-10-14	190.16	107.35	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-10-13	196.21	109.05	-0.39	near the usual relationship
2026-10-12	202.96	104.39	+0.06	near the usual relationship
2026-10-09	203.24	102.06	+0.20	near the usual relationship
2026-10-08	202.15	108.69	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-10-07	206.63	111.65	-0.19	near the usual relationship
2026-10-06	219.23	118.91	-0.20	near the usual relationship
2026-10-05	215.34	119.18	-0.30	near the usual relationship
2026-10-02	214.65	120.70	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2026-10-01	209.81	115.14	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2026-09-30	205.86	115.14	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2026-09-29	209.88	117.03	-0.29	near the usual relationship
2026-09-28	208.18	118.82	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2026-09-25	208.60	117.29	-0.32	near the usual relationship
2026-09-24	204.45	119.00	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2026-09-23	206.17	123.21	-0.60	CNH ahead
2026-09-22	205.15	122.49	-0.58	CNH ahead
2026-09-21	207.31	120.79	-0.45	near the usual relationship
2026-09-18	205.40	120.52	-0.47	near the usual relationship
2026-09-17	202.75	121.42	-0.56	CNH ahead
2026-09-16	198.73	121.15	-0.63	CNH ahead
2026-09-15	198.94	125.45	-0.78	CNH ahead
2026-09-14	199.06	123.21	-0.67	CNH ahead
2026-09-11	207.83	121.68	-0.40	near the usual relationship
2026-09-10	204.39	120.97	-0.44	near the usual relationship
2026-09-09	207.07	124.55	-0.50	CNH ahead
2026-09-08	208.83	121.86	-0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-09-04	206.66	129.03	-0.63	CNH ahead
2026-09-03	203.15	124.01	-0.52	CNH ahead
2026-09-02	201.16	122.31	-0.49	near the usual relationship
2026-09-01	197.83	112.01	-0.17	near the usual relationship
2026-08-31	202.48	106.00	+0.16	near the usual relationship
2026-08-28	203.18	104.66	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2026-08-27	207.43	102.42	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2026-08-26	208.69	104.12	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2026-08-25	205.98	103.58	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2026-08-24	205.92	105.38	+0.30	near the usual relationship
2026-08-21	210.20	106.36	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2026-08-20	207.03	98.12	+0.61	CAT ahead
2026-08-19	207.22	92.20	+0.85	CAT ahead
2026-08-18	213.49	89.87	+1.07	CAT ahead
2026-08-17	223.85	92.20	+1.15	CAT ahead
2026-08-14	217.48	93.55	+1.00	CAT ahead
2026-08-13	216.98	93.10	+1.01	CAT ahead
2026-08-12	217.23	96.15	+0.90	CAT ahead
2026-08-11	214.13	95.25	+0.89	CAT ahead
2026-08-10	212.66	93.91	+0.92	CAT ahead
2026-08-07	213.83	97.76	+0.80	CAT ahead
2026-08-06	217.58	97.22	+0.89	CAT ahead
2026-08-05	221.16	96.68	+0.97	CAT ahead
2026-08-04	222.55	100.54	+0.86	CAT ahead
2026-08-03	210.74	96.77	+0.81	CAT ahead
2026-07-31	206.88	91.85	+0.93	CAT ahead
2026-07-30	205.44	92.47	+0.89	CAT ahead
2026-07-29	198.73	96.42	+0.64	CAT ahead
2026-07-28	213.49	102.51	+0.68	CAT ahead
2026-07-27	221.72	99.28	+0.92	CAT ahead
2026-07-24	225.65	99.91	+0.96	CAT ahead
2026-07-23	227.12	95.16	+1.15	CAT ahead
2026-07-22	225.79	95.88	+1.12	CAT ahead
2026-07-21	225.96	92.74	+1.23	CAT ahead
2026-07-20	219.44	92.56	+1.15	CAT ahead
2026-07-17	223.50	95.34	+1.12	CAT ahead
2026-07-16	222.71	94.98	+1.13	CAT ahead
2026-07-15	232.14	94.71	+1.28	CAT ahead
2026-07-14	236.97	93.37	+1.40	CAT ahead
2026-07-13	236.50	93.37	+1.40	CAT ahead
2026-07-10	241.81	93.64	+1.46	CAT ahead
2026-07-09	238.25	92.11	+1.48	CAT ahead
2026-07-08	240.71	92.03	+1.52	CAT ahead
2026-07-07	238.69	93.46	+1.45	CAT ahead
2026-07-06	246.26	97.40	+1.43	CAT ahead
2026-07-02	244.64	96.06	+1.46	CAT ahead
2026-07-01	251.72	97.85	+1.50	CAT ahead
2026-06-30	270.38	100.63	+1.64	CAT ahead
2026-06-29	262.32	102.06	+1.52	CAT ahead
2026-06-26	253.25	98.84	+1.52	CAT ahead
2026-06-25	268.37	97.94	+1.73	CAT ahead
2026-06-24	252.49	92.38	+1.74	CAT ahead
2026-06-23	249.90	89.52	+1.82	CAT ahead
2026-06-22	259.55	93.01	+1.83	CAT ahead
2026-06-18	250.30	93.73	+1.71	CAT ahead
2026-06-17	242.71	92.11	+1.68	CAT ahead
2026-06-16	240.05	94.18	+1.59	CAT ahead
2026-06-15	237.12	95.61	+1.51	CAT ahead
2026-06-12	231.19	94.98	+1.47	CAT ahead
2026-06-11	227.91	92.83	+1.50	CAT ahead
2026-06-10	217.38	91.22	+1.42	CAT ahead
2026-06-09	232.24	96.24	+1.47	CAT ahead
2026-06-08	232.48	95.70	+1.50	CAT ahead
2026-06-05	229.59	96.33	+1.45	CAT ahead
2026-06-04	238.79	97.22	+1.55	CAT ahead
2026-06-03	235.15	98.92	+1.46	CAT ahead
2026-06-02	231.00	98.12	+1.44	CAT ahead
2026-06-01	219.71	88.26	+1.62	CAT ahead
2026-05-29	222.38	91.49	+1.56	CAT ahead
2026-05-28	225.38	93.73	+1.54	CAT ahead
2026-05-27	231.03	94.27	+1.61	CAT ahead
2026-05-26	230.68	91.85	+1.69	CAT ahead
2026-05-22	223.40	90.59	+1.65	CAT ahead
2026-05-21	219.86	90.95	+1.60	CAT ahead
2026-05-20	221.54	93.73	+1.55	CAT ahead
2026-05-19	218.39	91.67	+1.58	CAT ahead
2026-05-18	219.35	94.09	+1.53	CAT ahead
2026-05-15	225.54	93.46	+1.64	CAT ahead
2026-05-14	233.64	95.61	+1.69	CAT ahead
2026-05-13	229.09	96.42	+1.62	CAT ahead
2026-05-12	231.59	96.24	+1.67	CAT ahead
2026-05-11	235.31	98.30	+1.66	CAT ahead
2026-05-08	227.86	98.21	+1.59	CAT ahead
2026-05-07	227.41	97.13	+1.62	CAT ahead
2026-05-06	235.35	96.95	+1.74	CAT ahead
2026-05-05	229.67	92.47	+1.82	CAT ahead
2026-05-04	222.10	91.58	+1.77	CAT ahead
2026-05-01	225.88	93.91	+1.76	CAT ahead
2026-04-30	226.00	95.97	+1.71	CAT ahead
2026-04-29	205.67	90.32	+1.63	CAT ahead
2026-04-28	207.66	89.96	+1.68	CAT ahead
2026-04-27	210.43	91.85	+1.68	CAT ahead
2026-04-24	210.94	91.85	+1.70	CAT ahead
2026-04-23	212.07	94.09	+1.66	CAT ahead
2026-04-22	205.37	93.82	+1.58	CAT ahead
2026-04-21	203.23	96.68	+1.48	CAT ahead
2026-04-20	202.71	97.13	+1.47	CAT ahead
2026-04-17	201.76	94.89	+1.53	CAT ahead
2026-04-16	196.18	93.28	+1.51	CAT ahead
2026-04-15	195.54	95.34	+1.45	CAT ahead
2026-04-14	201.66	102.96	+1.33	CAT ahead
2026-04-13	201.02	103.76	+1.31	CAT ahead
2026-04-10	200.75	103.67	+1.32	CAT ahead
2026-04-09	199.83	104.21	+1.30	CAT ahead
2026-04-08	195.90	102.42	+1.30	CAT ahead
2026-04-07	183.93	95.88	+1.32	CAT ahead
2026-04-06	183.12	96.15	+1.31	CAT ahead
2026-04-02	182.10	95.43	+1.33	CAT ahead
2026-04-01	185.43	98.75	+1.29	CAT ahead
2026-03-31	179.88	98.57	+1.22	CAT ahead
2026-03-30	169.46	93.19	+1.22	CAT ahead
2026-03-27	176.56	96.06	+1.26	CAT ahead
2026-03-26	178.54	98.21	+1.24	CAT ahead
2026-03-25	182.56	100.00	+1.26	CAT ahead
2026-03-24	181.95	96.24	+1.37	CAT ahead
2026-03-23	178.16	93.64	+1.40	CAT ahead
2026-03-20	172.87	89.07	+1.47	CAT ahead
2026-03-19	174.85	90.32	+1.47	CAT ahead
2026-03-18	176.11	90.68	+1.49	CAT ahead
2026-03-17	178.24	95.16	+1.40	CAT ahead
2026-03-16	177.67	94.27	+1.43	CAT ahead
2026-03-13	176.20	95.43	+1.38	CAT ahead
2026-03-12	177.90	96.33	+1.40	CAT ahead
2026-03-11	179.66	98.39	+1.37	CAT ahead
2026-03-10	181.96	98.84	+1.41	CAT ahead
2026-03-09	178.95	99.82	+1.34	CAT ahead
2026-03-06	172.88	99.91	+1.25	CAT ahead
2026-03-05	179.27	102.15	+1.30	CAT ahead
2026-03-04	185.85	106.63	+1.29	CAT ahead
2026-03-03	183.36	108.06	+1.23	CAT ahead
2026-03-02	191.01	110.48	+1.29	CAT ahead
2026-02-27	188.60	110.22	+1.27	CAT ahead
2026-02-26	191.17	108.87	+1.36	CAT ahead
2026-02-25	194.64	110.66	+1.37	CAT ahead
2026-02-24	195.05	114.25	+1.30	CAT ahead
2026-02-23	192.07	114.07	+1.27	CAT ahead
2026-02-20	192.90	117.03	+1.22	CAT ahead
2026-02-19	193.10	116.31	+1.25	CAT ahead
2026-02-18	190.92	113.53	+1.30	CAT ahead
2026-02-17	194.17	117.29	+1.26	CAT ahead
2026-02-13	196.57	114.25	+1.38	CAT ahead
2026-02-12	192.53	113.71	+1.35	CAT ahead
2026-02-11	196.77	114.70	+1.40	CAT ahead
2026-02-10	188.49	111.02	+1.38	CAT ahead
2026-02-09	188.42	110.84	+1.40	CAT ahead
2026-02-06	184.38	110.75	+1.35	CAT ahead
2026-02-05	172.22	106.90	+1.26	CAT ahead
2026-02-04	175.65	107.17	+1.32	CAT ahead
2026-02-03	178.46	100.54	+1.58	CAT ahead
2026-02-02	175.42	98.21	+1.61	CAT ahead
2026-01-30	166.90	96.42	+1.53	CAT ahead
2026-01-29	168.90	97.22	+1.56	CAT ahead
2026-01-28	163.33	96.42	+1.49	CAT ahead
2026-01-27	162.22	96.77	+1.47	CAT ahead
2026-01-26	161.46	97.94	+1.44	CAT ahead
2026-01-23	159.10	97.49	+1.42	CAT ahead
2026-01-22	164.63	99.01	+1.49	CAT ahead
2026-01-21	163.86	98.66	+1.50	CAT ahead
2026-01-20	159.70	95.25	+1.54	CAT ahead
2026-01-16	164.24	97.85	+1.56	CAT ahead
2026-01-15	164.32	96.95	+1.61	CAT ahead
2026-01-14	162.18	97.04	+1.58	CAT ahead
2026-01-13	161.61	93.64	+1.70	CAT ahead
2026-01-12	159.90	91.94	+1.74	CAT ahead
2026-01-09	156.81	91.31	+1.72	CAT ahead
2026-01-08	154.40	92.38	+1.65	CAT ahead
2026-01-07	151.45	88.71	+1.73	CAT ahead
2026-01-06	158.20	89.96	+1.85	CAT ahead
2026-01-05	156.43	86.47	+1.97	CAT ahead
2026-01-02	151.93	83.78	+2.00	CAT ahead
2025-12-31	145.45	82.62	+1.92	CAT ahead
2025-12-30	146.60	83.69	+1.93	CAT ahead
2025-12-29	146.91	84.14	+1.94	CAT ahead
2025-12-26	148.02	84.59	+1.97	CAT ahead
2025-12-24	148.22	84.14	+2.02	CAT ahead
2025-12-23	147.87	83.87	+2.05	CAT ahead
2025-12-22	147.87	84.41	+2.05	CAT ahead
2025-12-19	146.30	86.11	+1.96	CAT ahead
2025-12-18	143.66	86.47	+1.91	CAT ahead
2025-12-17	142.66	85.84	+1.93	CAT ahead
2025-12-16	149.53	86.29	+2.11	CAT ahead
2025-12-15	149.74	85.75	+2.16	CAT ahead
2025-12-12	151.80	88.71	+2.12	CAT ahead
2025-12-11	158.84	88.89	+2.31	CAT ahead
2025-12-10	156.24	87.99	+2.32	CAT ahead
2025-12-09	150.91	83.87	+2.41	CAT ahead
2025-12-08	151.45	82.80	+2.51	CAT ahead
2025-12-05	153.14	84.59	+2.51	CAT ahead
2025-12-04	152.12	84.86	+2.52	CAT ahead
2025-12-03	150.18	85.13	+2.49	CAT ahead
2025-12-02	147.89	83.15	+2.57	CAT ahead
2025-12-01	144.23	83.51	+2.49	CAT ahead
2025-11-28	146.18	84.50	+2.54	CAT ahead
2025-11-26	145.67	84.23	+2.58	CAT ahead
2025-11-25	143.86	87.10	+2.43	CAT ahead
2025-11-24	142.08	85.57	+2.49	CAT ahead
2025-11-21	139.75	86.83	+2.39	CAT ahead
2025-11-20	138.66	84.23	+2.53	CAT ahead
2025-11-19	140.43	85.93	+2.53	CAT ahead
2025-11-18	138.85	85.22	+2.56	CAT ahead
2025-11-17	140.16	87.46	+2.52	CAT ahead
2025-11-14	140.67	90.05	+2.43	CAT ahead
2025-11-13	140.54	90.50	+2.44	CAT ahead
2025-11-12	145.49	92.56	+2.54	CAT ahead
2025-11-11	144.20	88.53	+2.75	CAT ahead
2025-11-10	144.94	86.29	+2.96	CAT ahead
2025-11-07	142.97	86.56	+2.94	CAT ahead
2025-11-06	144.67	91.94	+2.75	CAT ahead
2025-11-05	144.51	93.82	+2.68	CAT ahead
2025-11-04	139.03	92.29	+2.61	CAT ahead
2025-11-03	144.87	93.28	+2.83	CAT ahead
2025-10-31	146.56	94.00	+2.90	CAT ahead
2025-10-30	148.06	93.01	+3.08	CAT ahead
2025-10-29	148.65	95.16	+3.04	CAT ahead
2025-10-28	133.16	94.98	+2.48	CAT ahead
2025-10-27	133.82	97.04	+2.42	CAT ahead
2025-10-24	132.72	96.59	+2.43	CAT ahead
2025-10-23	132.15	96.68	+2.44	CAT ahead
2025-10-22	130.48	95.07	+2.50	CAT ahead
2025-10-21	133.21	95.43	+2.64	CAT ahead
2025-10-20	134.87	94.18	+2.84	CAT ahead
2025-10-17	133.82	93.55	+2.88	CAT ahead
2025-10-16	137.35	93.64	+3.10	CAT ahead
2025-10-15	135.59	91.76	+3.21	CAT ahead
2025-10-14	133.92	91.94	+3.19	CAT ahead
2025-10-13	128.16	90.14	+3.10	CAT ahead
2025-10-10	124.74	90.50	+2.95	CAT ahead
2025-10-09	127.04	94.00	+2.87	CAT ahead
2025-10-08	127.49	95.70	+2.81	CAT ahead
2025-10-07	123.57	98.21	+2.45	CAT ahead
2025-10-06	125.78	98.21	+2.61	CAT ahead
2025-10-03	126.40	97.76	+2.72	CAT ahead
2025-10-02	124.55	97.13	+2.70	CAT ahead
2025-10-01	122.08	94.62	+2.79	CAT ahead
2025-09-30	121.15	97.22	+2.58	CAT ahead
2025-09-29	119.74	97.76	+2.48	CAT ahead
2025-09-26	118.26	97.49	+2.44	CAT ahead
2025-09-25	117.74	96.77	+2.50	CAT ahead
2025-09-24	119.28	97.40	+2.59	CAT ahead
2025-09-23	119.65	98.21	+2.59	CAT ahead
2025-09-22	119.86	98.57	+2.61	CAT ahead
2025-09-19	118.45	98.30	+2.58	CAT ahead
2025-09-18	118.56	99.37	+2.53	CAT ahead
2025-09-17	114.42	97.22	+2.46	CAT ahead
2025-09-16	111.88	97.94	+2.24	CAT ahead
2025-09-15	110.68	97.49	+2.21	CAT ahead
2025-09-12	109.56	98.30	+2.08	CAT ahead
2025-09-11	109.53	100.54	+1.91	CAT ahead
2025-09-10	107.38	100.72	+1.74	CAT ahead
2025-09-09	106.15	101.52	+1.59	CAT ahead
2025-09-08	107.34	103.05	+1.57	CAT ahead
2025-09-05	107.42	102.69	+1.61	CAT ahead
2025-09-04	106.69	101.79	+1.64	CAT ahead
2025-09-03	105.40	100.54	+1.65	CAT ahead
2025-09-02	105.63	100.36	+1.69	CAT ahead
2025-08-29	106.39	102.60	+1.56	CAT ahead
2025-08-28	110.42	106.90	+1.54	CAT ahead
2025-08-27	109.85	108.15	+1.39	CAT ahead
2025-08-26	109.50	108.15	+1.37	CAT ahead
2025-08-25	109.76	109.59	+1.28	CAT ahead
2025-08-22	110.62	110.84	+1.25	CAT ahead
2025-08-21	106.10	107.26	+1.17	CAT ahead
2025-08-20	106.79	109.14	+1.08	CAT ahead
2025-08-19	105.64	109.59	+0.94	CAT ahead
2025-08-18	104.77	109.32	+0.89	CAT ahead
2025-08-15	103.54	109.23	+0.79	CAT ahead
2025-08-14	106.00	108.87	+1.02	CAT ahead
2025-08-13	105.04	114.96	+0.46	near the usual relationship
2025-08-12	104.79	112.19	+0.65	CAT ahead
2025-08-11	103.73	111.74	+0.60	CAT ahead
2025-08-08	105.75	111.38	+0.79	CAT ahead
2025-08-07	105.91	111.47	+0.80	CAT ahead
2025-08-06	108.60	111.29	+1.04	CAT ahead
2025-08-05	110.25	113.08	+1.03	CAT ahead
2025-08-04	110.12	112.28	+1.09	CAT ahead
2025-08-01	108.84	111.74	+1.03	CAT ahead
2025-07-31	111.21	116.13	+0.88	CAT ahead
2025-07-30	110.22	113.17	+1.03	CAT ahead
2025-07-29	109.19	114.78	+0.82	CAT ahead
2025-07-28	109.92	116.40	+0.76	CAT ahead
2025-07-25	110.13	119.27	+0.56	CAT ahead
2025-07-24	109.05	118.37	+0.54	CAT ahead
2025-07-23	108.56	119.89	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2025-07-22	105.92	117.03	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-07-21	104.12	113.44	+0.50	CAT ahead
2025-07-18	105.04	116.13	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-07-17	106.15	116.22	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2025-07-16	104.83	115.68	+0.38	near the usual relationship
2025-07-15	102.74	117.56	+0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-07-14	103.02	119.53	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-07-11	103.06	120.61	-0.14	near the usual relationship
2025-07-10	103.67	123.66	-0.30	near the usual relationship
2025-07-09	102.11	122.67	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-07-08	100.11	122.76	-0.55	CNH ahead
2025-07-07	99.40	120.70	-0.47	near the usual relationship
2025-07-03	101.02	122.67	-0.48	near the usual relationship
2025-07-02	101.16	123.30	-0.51	CNH ahead
2025-07-01	99.25	119.71	-0.43	near the usual relationship
2025-06-30	98.57	116.13	-0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-06-27	97.68	116.76	-0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-06-26	96.96	115.59	-0.34	near the usual relationship
2025-06-25	94.34	112.90	-0.37	near the usual relationship
2025-06-24	94.71	115.41	-0.53	CNH ahead
2025-06-23	92.98	114.07	-0.59	CNH ahead
2025-06-20	91.54	114.61	-0.77	CNH ahead
2025-06-18	91.35	114.87	-0.81	CNH ahead
2025-06-17	90.81	114.25	-0.82	CNH ahead
2025-06-16	92.02	116.31	-0.87	CNH ahead
2025-06-13	90.65	112.63	-0.72	CNH ahead
2025-06-12	91.65	114.52	-0.78	CNH ahead
2025-06-11	92.20	115.95	-0.84	CNH ahead
2025-06-10	91.04	115.41	-0.91	CNH ahead
2025-06-09	90.91	115.14	-0.91	CNH ahead
2025-06-06	89.71	114.07	-0.95	CNH ahead
2025-06-05	88.60	112.46	-0.94	CNH ahead
2025-06-04	88.69	111.47	-0.86	CNH ahead
2025-06-03	88.71	112.54	-0.95	CNH ahead
2025-06-02	87.51	111.11	-0.97	CNH ahead
2025-05-30	88.36	112.10	-0.96	CNH ahead
2025-05-29	89.32	113.35	-0.98	CNH ahead
2025-05-28	88.73	115.14	-1.18	CNH ahead
2025-05-27	89.25	116.04	-1.21	CNH ahead
2025-05-23	87.19	114.34	-1.29	CNH ahead
2025-05-22	87.64	116.13	-1.40	CNH ahead
2025-05-21	86.96	115.14	-1.40	CNH ahead
2025-05-20	88.73	121.95	-1.75	CNH ahead
2025-05-19	89.52	122.49	-1.72	CNH ahead
2025-05-16	89.77	122.49	-1.71	CNH ahead
2025-05-15	88.82	120.07	-1.65	CNH ahead
2025-05-14	88.78	119.44	-1.62	CNH ahead
2025-05-13	89.51	119.80	-1.58	CNH ahead
2025-05-12	86.97	119.18	-1.81	CNH ahead
2025-05-09	82.67	114.43	-1.92	CNH ahead
2025-05-08	82.33	112.99	-1.86	CNH ahead
2025-05-07	81.32	109.32	-1.68	CNH ahead
2025-05-06	81.47	110.93	-1.81	CNH ahead
2025-05-05	82.04	111.29	-1.79	CNH ahead
2025-05-02	82.18	111.11	-1.77	CNH ahead
2025-05-01	79.71	111.20	-2.09	CNH ahead
2025-04-30	78.52	103.67	-1.58	CNH ahead
2025-04-29	78.05	104.03	-1.68	CNH ahead
2025-04-28	77.96	105.11	-1.81	CNH ahead
2025-04-25	77.81	104.30	-1.77	CNH ahead
2025-04-24	77.91	105.73	-1.91	CNH ahead
2025-04-23	75.10	101.25	-1.86	CNH ahead
2025-04-22	73.93	101.08	-2.02	CNH ahead
2025-04-21	72.29	98.12	-1.96	CNH ahead
2025-04-17	74.71	99.64	-1.80	CNH ahead
2025-04-16	73.67	99.46	-1.94	CNH ahead
2025-04-15	74.50	103.58	-2.26	CNH ahead
2025-04-14	75.69	104.12	-2.17	CNH ahead
2025-04-11	74.51	103.41	-2.28	CNH ahead
2025-04-10	73.42	100.27	-2.13	CNH ahead
2025-04-09	76.43	104.03	-2.12	CNH ahead
2025-04-08	69.55	92.47	-1.89	CNH ahead
2025-04-07	71.11	96.86	-2.16	CNH ahead
2025-04-04	73.14	96.06	-1.78	CNH ahead
2025-04-03	77.63	100.99	-1.69	CNH ahead
2025-04-02	84.97	110.57	-1.70	CNH ahead
2025-04-01	83.93	111.65	-1.95	CNH ahead
2025-03-31	83.74	110.04	-1.82	CNH ahead
2025-03-28	83.71	109.23	-1.75	CNH ahead
2025-03-27	86.15	114.25	-1.94	CNH ahead
2025-03-26	86.61	113.35	-1.80	CNH ahead
2025-03-25	86.99	111.38	-1.57	CNH ahead
2025-03-24	86.75	114.52	-1.91	CNH ahead
2025-03-21	85.25	112.28	-1.90	CNH ahead
2025-03-20	85.37	116.04	-2.27	CNH ahead
2025-03-19	85.97	115.86	-2.19	CNH ahead
2025-03-18	85.49	116.67	-2.35	CNH ahead
2025-03-17	87.00	118.91	-2.38	CNH ahead
2025-03-14	86.23	115.86	-2.20	CNH ahead
2025-03-13	84.63	112.46	-2.09	CNH ahead
2025-03-12	85.85	114.43	-2.14	CNH ahead
2025-03-11	86.27	117.47	-2.41	CNH ahead
2025-03-10	87.65	121.33	-2.64	CNH ahead
2025-03-07	88.94	119.98	-2.35	CNH ahead
2025-03-06	86.58	113.89	-2.07	CNH ahead
2025-03-05	85.94	107.53	-1.47	CNH ahead
2025-03-04	82.96	105.47	-1.66	CNH ahead
2025-03-03	84.30	108.87	-1.85	CNH ahead
2025-02-28	87.33	115.41	-2.13	CNH ahead
2025-02-27	86.33	114.16	-2.14	CNH ahead
2025-02-26	86.98	114.07	-2.04	CNH ahead
2025-02-25	86.92	114.61	-2.10	CNH ahead
2025-02-24	86.05	116.94	-2.48	CNH ahead
2025-02-21	86.34	116.31	-2.37	CNH ahead
2025-02-20	88.65	119.27	-2.36	CNH ahead
2025-02-19	89.63	120.61	-2.36	CNH ahead
2025-02-18	89.88	119.18	-2.17	CNH ahead
2025-02-14	89.71	114.78	-1.73	CNH ahead
2025-02-13	89.80	111.65	-1.37	CNH ahead
2025-02-12	89.38	112.28	-1.48	CNH ahead
2025-02-11	91.97	110.04	-0.90	CNH ahead
2025-02-10	92.22	110.22	-0.87	CNH ahead
2025-02-07	92.39	111.11	-0.93	CNH ahead
2025-02-06	92.79	109.14	-0.66	CNH ahead
2025-02-05	91.11	112.63	-1.21	CNH ahead
2025-02-04	91.90	114.07	-1.24	CNH ahead
2025-02-03	91.80	112.54	-1.08	CNH ahead
2025-01-31	94.31	115.41	-1.04	CNH ahead
2025-01-30	95.21	118.55	-1.22	CNH ahead
2025-01-29	99.84	117.29	-0.57	CNH ahead
2025-01-28	99.09	117.92	-0.70	CNH ahead
2025-01-27	100.28	117.92	-0.55	CNH ahead
2025-01-24	103.50	116.13	-0.05	near the usual relationship
2025-01-23	103.18	114.96	+0.03	near the usual relationship
2025-01-22	100.95	113.71	-0.07	near the usual relationship
2025-01-21	101.14	113.89	-0.06	near the usual relationship
2025-01-17	98.01	109.95	-0.01	near the usual relationship
2025-01-16	96.62	107.97	+0.04	near the usual relationship
2025-01-15	95.18	104.30	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-01-14	94.34	104.39	+0.15	near the usual relationship
2025-01-13	92.04	104.57	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-01-10	89.12	101.43	-0.10	near the usual relationship
2025-01-08	91.67	100.81	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-01-07	92.16	101.97	+0.18	near the usual relationship
2025-01-06	92.47	101.79	+0.23	near the usual relationship
2025-01-03	92.37	100.36	+0.36	near the usual relationship
2025-01-02	91.34	99.37	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2024-12-31	92.10	101.52	+0.24	near the usual relationship
2024-12-30	92.17	100.45	+0.35	near the usual relationship
2024-12-27	92.64	101.16	+0.34	near the usual relationship
2024-12-26	93.21	100.99	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2024-12-24	93.33	100.27	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-12-23	92.77	100.36	+0.44	near the usual relationship
2024-12-20	92.94	99.82	+0.51	CAT ahead
2024-12-19	91.50	98.57	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-12-18	92.39	98.92	+0.54	CAT ahead
2024-12-17	95.41	103.94	+0.41	near the usual relationship
2024-12-16	96.21	103.85	+0.49	near the usual relationship
2024-12-13	96.61	105.91	+0.37	near the usual relationship
2024-12-12	96.68	105.29	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2024-12-11	98.73	107.71	+0.42	near the usual relationship
2024-12-10	98.61	108.06	+0.39	near the usual relationship
2024-12-09	101.37	108.06	+0.61	CAT ahead
2024-12-06	100.30	107.35	+0.59	CAT ahead
2024-12-05	100.28	106.99	+0.62	CAT ahead
2024-12-04	101.43	109.68	+0.52	CAT ahead
2024-12-03	101.37	110.84	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2024-12-02	102.20	110.84	+0.51	CAT ahead
2024-11-29	103.11	112.54	+0.47	near the usual relationship
2024-11-27	102.50	112.37	+0.45	near the usual relationship
2024-11-26	103.55	110.93	+0.62	CAT ahead
2024-11-25	102.99	113.35	+0.43	near the usual relationship
2024-11-22	100.92	108.87	+0.58	CAT ahead
2024-11-21	98.92	106.81	+0.58	CAT ahead
2024-11-20	96.86	102.15	+0.76	CAT ahead
2024-11-19	97.07	99.19	+0.99	CAT ahead
2024-11-18	97.61	98.48	+1.09	CAT ahead
2024-11-15	97.51	97.67	+1.15	CAT ahead
2024-11-14	98.35	95.52	+1.38	CAT ahead
2024-11-13	98.28	90.05	+1.82	CAT ahead
2024-11-12	99.78	91.94	+1.79	CAT ahead
2024-11-11	100.68	96.06	+1.55	CAT ahead
2024-11-08	99.88	95.52	+1.55	CAT ahead
2024-11-07	103.64	104.21	+1.20	CAT ahead
2024-11-06	105.84	103.76	+1.38	CAT ahead
2024-11-05	97.34	100.81	+1.00	CAT ahead
2024-11-04	95.60	100.18	+0.92	CAT ahead
2024-11-01	96.39	100.90	+0.93	CAT ahead
2024-10-31	95.52	100.63	+0.89	CAT ahead
2024-10-30	96.29	100.90	+0.93	CAT ahead
2024-10-29	98.39	101.25	+1.06	CAT ahead
2024-10-28	99.17	102.24	+1.06	CAT ahead
2024-10-25	98.00	100.36	+1.11	CAT ahead
2024-10-24	98.27	100.18	+1.15	CAT ahead
2024-10-23	97.94	99.01	+1.21	CAT ahead
2024-10-22	98.63	98.39	+1.31	CAT ahead
2024-10-21	99.14	98.30	+1.35	CAT ahead
2024-10-18	100.00	100.00	+1.31	CAT ahead

One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Oct 29, 2025 (CAT +11.6%, CNH +0.2%); Feb 4, 2026 (CAT -1.6%, CNH +6.6%). Upcoming earnings: CAT Oct 29, 2026 (pre-market).

Paired trades

The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart

Forward paper record

No paper position on this pair yet.

Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)

2 simulated trades to Oct 20, 2026: +0.22% per trade on average after costs, 1 won.

Legs	Entered	Exited	Why	Days	Before costs	Costs + borrow	After costs
Long CNH · Short CAT	Jun 6, 2023	Jul 31, 2023	divergence stop	55	-$879.93	-$64.69	-$946.79 (-9.47%)
Long CAT · Short CNH	Aug 30, 2019	Nov 4, 2019	converged	66	$1,055.00	-$78.00	$989.97 (+9.90%)

Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.

The companies

CAT and CNH at a glance

CAT Caterpillar Inc.

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 18230
Industry: Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks · SIC 3531 Construction Machinery & Equip
Market value: $333.6B
Price history: 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

CNH CNH Industrial N.V.

Listing: NYSE · SEC CIK 1567094
Industry: Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks · SIC 3531 Construction Machinery & Equip
Market value: $13.9B
Price history: 2,520 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026

Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.

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Paper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.