BHP Group Limited vs Rio Tinto Plc
WatchlistBHP / RIOPrices through Oct 22, 2026
Why these are rivals: #1 and #3 by market value ($212B vs $112B) with SEC SIC 1000 (Metal Mining).
Rivals, but right now the price gap does not have a measured habit of closing, so there is no paper idea, whatever the gap.
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.44 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 184.19 (needs <= 63)
Business leadership
Business size
Annual revenue reported to the SEC. Scale, not market share.
No SEC revenue figures for both companies.
Market value: BHP $211.6B, RIO $112.4B.
Stock leadership
BHP is ahead now
Measured against the pair's own last 252 trading days.
BHP leads RIO by 1.61 standard deviations: +11.9% over its usual price ratio. 3 lead switches in the last year.
| Price change | 3 mo | 6 mo | 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP | -7.3% | -2.8% | +38.6% |
| RIO | -7.8% | -14.9% | +23.1% |
Relationship
Not a measured twin today
Only these tests can make a pair tradable on paper.
- Pass
- Aligned sessions: 2521 (needs >= 254)
- Pass
- Co-movement: daily return correlation, 252 sessions: 0.89 (needs >= 0.60)
- Fail
- Mean reversion: ADF t-statistic of the spread: -0.44 (needs <= -2.873 (5% critical value))
- Fail
- Speed: half-life of the spread, sessions: 184.19 (needs <= 63)
- Data
- Both stocks current
The twins over two years
Prices side by side, and the gap between them
BHP BHP Group Limited RIO Rio Tinto PlcPrice index, 100 = 2024-10-18. Tint = which stock is ahead of the pair's usual 1-year relationship (z beyond +/-0.5).
Spread z-score: BHP relative to RIO, against the 252 sessions before each day. Above 0: BHP ahead; below 0: RIO ahead. Lines at +/-2 (idea) and +/-4 (stop).
Data table (504 sessions)
| Date | BHP index | RIO index | z | Ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 135.82 | 128.73 | +1.61 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-21 | 141.49 | 132.99 | +1.75 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-20 | 143.33 | 134.88 | +1.75 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-19 | 145.69 | 136.93 | +1.78 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-16 | 145.82 | 138.19 | +1.68 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-15 | 145.13 | 138.02 | +1.64 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-14 | 145.76 | 139.61 | +1.55 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-13 | 148.72 | 142.38 | +1.57 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-12 | 151.82 | 144.28 | +1.70 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-09 | 151.86 | 145.01 | +1.64 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-08 | 148.51 | 142.81 | +1.55 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-07 | 149.19 | 142.53 | +1.66 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-06 | 152.31 | 146.71 | +1.55 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-05 | 152.01 | 146.34 | +1.57 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-02 | 150.68 | 144.14 | +1.68 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-10-01 | 148.20 | 142.09 | +1.66 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-30 | 148.53 | 144.08 | +1.48 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-29 | 148.49 | 144.06 | +1.49 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-28 | 148.07 | 144.45 | +1.41 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-25 | 148.76 | 144.68 | +1.47 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-24 | 148.97 | 144.54 | +1.52 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-23 | 148.72 | 145.73 | +1.37 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-22 | 153.76 | 149.16 | +1.54 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-21 | 150.72 | 148.47 | +1.31 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-18 | 151.03 | 148.97 | +1.29 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-17 | 151.54 | 150.00 | +1.24 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-16 | 147.30 | 146.56 | +1.16 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-15 | 148.41 | 148.81 | +1.04 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-14 | 148.35 | 149.39 | +0.97 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-11 | 152.57 | 152.94 | +1.04 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-10 | 152.92 | 152.07 | +1.18 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-09 | 161.50 | 158.72 | +1.37 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-08 | 161.05 | 158.86 | +1.32 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-04 | 158.30 | 158.00 | +1.12 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-03 | 162.31 | 157.34 | +1.60 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-02 | 163.57 | 157.21 | +1.74 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-09-01 | 162.50 | 155.84 | +1.78 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-31 | 164.43 | 156.82 | +1.88 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-28 | 166.58 | 158.05 | +1.97 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-27 | 168.71 | 160.31 | +1.95 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-26 | 168.64 | 160.19 | +1.97 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-25 | 172.78 | 163.42 | +2.05 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-24 | 170.05 | 160.34 | +2.11 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-21 | 169.87 | 161.11 | +2.03 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-20 | 163.92 | 156.32 | +1.95 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-19 | 161.57 | 153.67 | +2.00 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-18 | 155.97 | 147.93 | +2.06 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-17 | 154.71 | 148.73 | +1.84 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-14 | 151.93 | 146.39 | +1.82 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-13 | 152.71 | 150.24 | +1.47 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-12 | 157.77 | 154.87 | +1.52 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-11 | 157.60 | 154.51 | +1.54 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-10 | 158.63 | 155.92 | +1.51 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-07 | 158.28 | 154.68 | +1.62 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-06 | 153.89 | 152.46 | +1.38 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-05 | 156.48 | 155.31 | +1.36 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-04 | 153.12 | 151.48 | +1.42 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-08-03 | 146.18 | 146.73 | +1.17 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-31 | 147.92 | 148.18 | +1.21 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-30 | 150.39 | 148.68 | +1.45 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-29 | 145.50 | 143.30 | +1.52 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-28 | 146.69 | 140.21 | +2.07 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-27 | 146.94 | 140.68 | +2.06 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-24 | 146.57 | 139.57 | +2.18 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-23 | 146.45 | 140.01 | +2.13 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-22 | 148.00 | 141.19 | +2.19 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-21 | 146.10 | 138.54 | +2.33 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | 140.91 | 136.28 | +1.98 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-17 | 141.18 | 137.93 | +1.80 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-16 | 141.30 | 138.72 | +1.72 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-15 | 149.65 | 143.24 | +2.21 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-14 | 147.67 | 142.73 | +2.05 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-13 | 142.45 | 137.47 | +2.09 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-10 | 143.00 | 138.53 | +2.04 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-09 | 139.90 | 136.92 | +1.86 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-08 | 137.08 | 135.86 | +1.62 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-07 | 140.46 | 139.61 | +1.57 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-06 | 146.43 | 143.18 | +1.91 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-02 | 145.89 | 144.46 | +1.67 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-07-01 | 143.94 | 142.82 | +1.65 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-30 | 145.85 | 145.24 | +1.59 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-29 | 143.10 | 144.26 | +1.35 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-26 | 141.84 | 143.42 | +1.30 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-25 | 142.09 | 145.52 | +1.05 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-24 | 141.32 | 143.86 | +1.17 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-23 | 144.00 | 146.24 | +1.23 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-22 | 150.18 | 152.02 | +1.30 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-18 | 153.83 | 153.12 | +1.65 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-17 | 158.19 | 157.08 | +1.71 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-16 | 161.96 | 161.78 | +1.60 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-15 | 161.29 | 162.01 | +1.49 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-12 | 159.00 | 161.18 | +1.31 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-11 | 154.06 | 158.57 | +0.99 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-10 | 145.22 | 151.56 | +0.71 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-09 | 148.34 | 155.17 | +0.66 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-08 | 146.53 | 154.42 | +0.50 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-05 | 144.82 | 154.05 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-06-04 | 155.43 | 161.26 | +0.82 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-03 | 159.05 | 165.02 | +0.83 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-02 | 163.08 | 170.85 | +0.63 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-06-01 | 159.70 | 166.71 | +0.70 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-05-29 | 155.65 | 162.78 | +0.67 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-05-28 | 153.71 | 162.90 | +0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-27 | 153.76 | 163.11 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-26 | 151.42 | 163.62 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-22 | 148.11 | 159.47 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-21 | 148.70 | 160.28 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-20 | 146.27 | 158.06 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-19 | 143.33 | 154.41 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-18 | 147.09 | 158.09 | +0.11 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-15 | 147.76 | 158.64 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-14 | 155.69 | 167.67 | +0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-13 | 158.98 | 171.42 | +0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-12 | 154.62 | 167.53 | -0.05 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-11 | 153.45 | 165.09 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-08 | 148.32 | 161.23 | -0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-07 | 144.52 | 157.76 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-06 | 147.64 | 161.43 | -0.24 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-05-05 | 138.73 | 153.76 | -0.53 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-05-04 | 136.33 | 150.90 | -0.50 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-05-01 | 138.41 | 153.89 | -0.59 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-30 | 138.83 | 153.73 | -0.51 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-29 | 134.91 | 147.63 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-28 | 136.76 | 150.69 | -0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-27 | 139.78 | 152.92 | -0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-24 | 139.74 | 152.40 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-23 | 139.78 | 151.24 | -0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-22 | 141.04 | 153.43 | -0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-21 | 136.01 | 149.51 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-20 | 139.34 | 152.74 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-17 | 140.84 | 153.23 | -0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-16 | 139.13 | 152.56 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-15 | 139.13 | 150.80 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-14 | 138.60 | 151.27 | -0.21 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-13 | 136.73 | 151.77 | -0.56 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-10 | 134.47 | 150.34 | -0.71 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-09 | 135.21 | 148.61 | -0.36 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-04-08 | 134.73 | 150.63 | -0.70 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-07 | 128.34 | 144.83 | -0.90 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-06 | 127.43 | 143.83 | -0.91 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-02 | 128.22 | 144.51 | -0.88 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-04-01 | 128.78 | 145.06 | -0.87 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-31 | 127.35 | 142.73 | -0.77 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-30 | 120.83 | 135.89 | -0.85 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-27 | 121.67 | 132.56 | -0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-26 | 119.92 | 131.26 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-25 | 122.57 | 133.94 | -0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-24 | 120.40 | 132.76 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-23 | 119.42 | 131.33 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-20 | 114.30 | 127.22 | -0.63 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-19 | 117.94 | 131.04 | -0.59 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-18 | 119.57 | 134.21 | -0.80 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-17 | 123.39 | 137.39 | -0.64 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-16 | 123.09 | 137.48 | -0.71 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-13 | 120.34 | 134.38 | -0.70 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-12 | 123.90 | 138.77 | -0.77 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-03-11 | 128.41 | 140.88 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-10 | 129.36 | 140.27 | -0.10 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-09 | 127.61 | 138.23 | -0.07 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-06 | 125.79 | 138.02 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-05 | 132.35 | 142.85 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-04 | 136.78 | 147.26 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-03 | 137.13 | 145.82 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-03-02 | 145.33 | 152.40 | +0.61 | BHP ahead |
| 2026-02-27 | 142.80 | 151.99 | +0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-26 | 141.93 | 151.61 | +0.22 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-25 | 143.00 | 154.19 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-24 | 139.44 | 150.11 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-23 | 136.57 | 149.43 | -0.28 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-20 | 134.49 | 148.55 | -0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2026-02-19 | 131.43 | 147.40 | -0.79 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-18 | 130.48 | 151.36 | -1.51 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-17 | 130.06 | 148.23 | -1.15 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-13 | 128.47 | 150.05 | -1.68 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-12 | 127.38 | 149.80 | -1.84 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-11 | 131.53 | 152.26 | -1.52 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-10 | 126.66 | 148.78 | -1.85 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-09 | 125.47 | 148.18 | -1.99 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-06 | 121.92 | 142.92 | -1.85 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-05 | 120.97 | 139.41 | -1.49 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-04 | 126.44 | 147.61 | -1.79 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-03 | 127.35 | 147.44 | -1.63 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-02-02 | 121.48 | 141.55 | -1.79 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-30 | 120.33 | 139.27 | -1.65 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-29 | 126.35 | 145.55 | -1.56 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-28 | 124.23 | 142.85 | -1.53 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-27 | 123.41 | 142.15 | -1.58 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-26 | 118.64 | 138.42 | -1.89 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-23 | 118.21 | 138.36 | -1.99 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-22 | 113.74 | 133.57 | -2.09 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-21 | 114.86 | 135.92 | -2.30 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-20 | 112.73 | 131.09 | -1.91 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-16 | 113.55 | 130.25 | -1.61 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-15 | 115.60 | 132.11 | -1.53 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-14 | 115.58 | 131.40 | -1.42 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-13 | 112.03 | 127.89 | -1.53 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-12 | 109.94 | 126.81 | -1.80 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-09 | 108.05 | 124.13 | -1.72 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-08 | 110.21 | 128.81 | -2.17 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-07 | 111.80 | 129.87 | -2.04 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-06 | 113.45 | 130.40 | -1.80 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-05 | 110.54 | 127.31 | -1.87 | RIO ahead |
| 2026-01-02 | 108.12 | 124.59 | -1.91 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-31 | 105.69 | 122.44 | -2.07 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-30 | 106.65 | 123.19 | -2.02 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-29 | 105.72 | 123.01 | -2.24 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-26 | 108.35 | 125.83 | -2.22 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-24 | 106.57 | 123.76 | -2.25 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-23 | 106.93 | 123.88 | -2.22 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-22 | 106.39 | 122.55 | -2.09 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-19 | 103.85 | 119.83 | -2.17 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-18 | 103.76 | 118.77 | -1.98 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-17 | 103.38 | 118.10 | -1.95 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-16 | 102.63 | 116.26 | -1.73 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-15 | 103.62 | 116.00 | -1.42 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-12 | 104.41 | 115.76 | -1.16 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-11 | 106.65 | 117.41 | -0.97 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-10 | 105.97 | 116.65 | -0.97 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-09 | 103.31 | 113.83 | -1.01 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-08 | 102.14 | 111.72 | -0.81 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-05 | 103.03 | 111.78 | -0.58 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-04 | 103.24 | 112.81 | -0.79 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-03 | 101.40 | 113.65 | -1.51 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-02 | 98.51 | 110.68 | -1.59 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-12-01 | 96.59 | 110.11 | -2.03 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-28 | 95.82 | 110.08 | -2.28 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-26 | 96.08 | 110.47 | -2.34 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-25 | 93.98 | 108.74 | -2.57 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-24 | 92.66 | 107.82 | -2.78 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-21 | 92.93 | 107.08 | -2.54 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-20 | 92.05 | 105.23 | -2.33 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-19 | 93.61 | 106.23 | -2.14 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-18 | 94.03 | 106.70 | -2.16 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-17 | 95.57 | 107.85 | -2.01 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-14 | 96.69 | 108.06 | -1.73 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-13 | 97.95 | 108.69 | -1.52 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-12 | 98.60 | 108.80 | -1.36 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-11 | 97.64 | 107.59 | -1.32 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-10 | 97.79 | 107.54 | -1.27 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-07 | 96.57 | 106.07 | -1.25 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-06 | 97.36 | 105.98 | -0.97 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-05 | 97.18 | 105.66 | -0.94 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-04 | 95.31 | 103.87 | -1.02 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-11-03 | 98.30 | 107.67 | -1.19 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-31 | 99.88 | 109.76 | -1.30 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-30 | 100.21 | 110.47 | -1.41 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-29 | 101.47 | 111.05 | -1.19 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-28 | 100.02 | 110.14 | -1.40 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-27 | 98.70 | 108.52 | -1.36 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-24 | 97.37 | 107.93 | -1.63 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-23 | 96.80 | 108.05 | -1.87 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-22 | 97.67 | 106.73 | -1.21 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-21 | 97.99 | 104.56 | -0.47 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-20 | 99.44 | 105.94 | -0.42 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-17 | 97.32 | 104.07 | -0.55 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-16 | 98.53 | 105.19 | -0.50 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-15 | 99.25 | 105.35 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-14 | 98.77 | 104.38 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-13 | 97.53 | 104.28 | -0.56 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-10-10 | 93.87 | 100.12 | -0.49 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-09 | 98.11 | 102.51 | +0.12 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-08 | 98.14 | 103.58 | -0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-07 | 96.64 | 101.36 | +0.00 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-06 | 97.99 | 102.48 | +0.08 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-03 | 97.11 | 101.15 | +0.19 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-02 | 97.16 | 101.38 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-10-01 | 97.60 | 101.42 | +0.25 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-30 | 97.60 | 100.99 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-29 | 98.42 | 100.86 | +0.66 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-26 | 95.83 | 99.14 | +0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-25 | 97.50 | 100.11 | +0.60 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-24 | 93.66 | 97.72 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-23 | 93.29 | 97.26 | +0.15 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-22 | 93.05 | 97.38 | +0.03 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-19 | 91.28 | 95.44 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-18 | 91.35 | 94.83 | +0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-17 | 93.08 | 96.37 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-09-16 | 94.73 | 97.06 | +0.65 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-15 | 95.94 | 97.49 | +0.89 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-12 | 94.66 | 95.53 | +1.10 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-11 | 94.91 | 95.69 | +1.13 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-10 | 93.22 | 95.01 | +0.81 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-09 | 93.05 | 94.66 | +0.86 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-08 | 94.89 | 97.49 | +0.57 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-05 | 95.22 | 97.87 | +0.55 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-04 | 97.25 | 95.56 | +1.87 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-03 | 97.85 | 95.59 | +2.05 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-09-02 | 97.46 | 94.69 | +2.24 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-29 | 97.64 | 95.96 | +1.91 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-28 | 98.25 | 96.21 | +2.03 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-27 | 97.81 | 95.03 | +2.28 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-26 | 97.43 | 94.78 | +2.26 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-25 | 97.64 | 95.36 | +2.16 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-22 | 97.95 | 95.91 | +2.10 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-21 | 95.41 | 93.79 | +1.99 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-20 | 93.82 | 92.75 | +1.83 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-19 | 94.01 | 92.70 | +1.93 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-18 | 93.54 | 92.35 | +1.91 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-15 | 94.80 | 93.70 | +1.89 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-14 | 94.22 | 95.65 | +1.05 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-13 | 95.82 | 97.26 | +1.06 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-12 | 94.61 | 96.54 | +0.89 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-11 | 93.33 | 95.07 | +0.95 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-08 | 92.54 | 94.65 | +0.83 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-07 | 91.23 | 92.98 | +0.94 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-06 | 90.23 | 91.94 | +0.95 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-05 | 89.51 | 91.34 | +0.90 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-04 | 90.39 | 91.80 | +1.06 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-08-01 | 88.81 | 91.26 | +0.68 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-31 | 88.71 | 91.45 | +0.58 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-30 | 88.67 | 91.02 | +0.72 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-29 | 92.28 | 95.27 | +0.53 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-28 | 91.53 | 95.15 | +0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-25 | 93.05 | 96.54 | +0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-24 | 94.68 | 97.66 | +0.55 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-23 | 96.83 | 98.87 | +0.86 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-22 | 96.39 | 98.42 | +0.86 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-21 | 93.10 | 94.94 | +0.90 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-18 | 90.76 | 92.63 | +0.87 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-17 | 90.49 | 91.85 | +1.04 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-16 | 89.58 | 91.37 | +0.89 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-15 | 88.18 | 89.46 | +1.06 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-14 | 90.90 | 91.52 | +1.29 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-11 | 91.18 | 93.48 | +0.72 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-10 | 90.18 | 91.95 | +0.89 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-09 | 86.85 | 89.83 | +0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-08 | 86.41 | 89.86 | +0.26 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-07 | 86.47 | 88.22 | +0.85 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-03 | 88.45 | 90.30 | +0.82 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-07-02 | 88.81 | 92.07 | +0.35 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-07-01 | 85.21 | 89.20 | +0.04 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-30 | 84.19 | 89.24 | -0.34 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-27 | 85.12 | 89.87 | -0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-26 | 84.63 | 89.63 | -0.32 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-25 | 81.83 | 86.77 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-24 | 82.79 | 87.50 | -0.27 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-23 | 81.99 | 87.35 | -0.52 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-06-20 | 80.78 | 85.51 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-18 | 83.37 | 87.12 | +0.06 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-17 | 83.65 | 87.22 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-16 | 85.61 | 89.21 | +0.14 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-13 | 85.00 | 88.74 | +0.09 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-12 | 87.20 | 89.78 | +0.51 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-06-11 | 88.60 | 90.01 | +0.91 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-06-10 | 89.08 | 90.99 | +0.75 | BHP ahead |
| 2025-06-09 | 87.85 | 90.74 | +0.41 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-06 | 86.80 | 90.32 | +0.18 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-05 | 87.24 | 90.64 | +0.23 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-04 | 85.96 | 89.58 | +0.13 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-03 | 85.08 | 90.04 | -0.33 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-06-02 | 86.54 | 91.16 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-30 | 85.77 | 90.93 | -0.39 | near the usual relationship |
| 2025-05-29 | 86.26 | 92.11 | -0.61 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-28 | 86.13 | 91.72 | -0.53 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-27 | 87.18 | 93.02 | -0.59 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-23 | 87.34 | 94.22 | -0.92 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-22 | 86.05 | 93.51 | -1.16 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-21 | 86.38 | 94.83 | -1.48 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-20 | 87.04 | 95.23 | -1.38 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-19 | 88.15 | 95.46 | -1.08 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-16 | 88.43 | 95.84 | -1.11 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-15 | 88.46 | 96.01 | -1.16 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-14 | 88.06 | 94.91 | -0.94 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-13 | 88.95 | 95.27 | -0.75 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-12 | 87.36 | 93.96 | -0.88 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-09 | 85.21 | 91.77 | -0.93 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-08 | 84.33 | 90.54 | -0.83 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-07 | 84.68 | 91.83 | -1.14 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-06 | 85.49 | 91.49 | -0.74 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-05 | 85.12 | 91.14 | -0.75 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-02 | 85.49 | 91.34 | -0.68 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-05-01 | 83.53 | 89.58 | -0.80 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-30 | 83.25 | 90.88 | -1.36 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-29 | 85.08 | 93.15 | -1.46 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-28 | 84.77 | 93.13 | -1.58 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-25 | 84.40 | 92.66 | -1.57 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-24 | 86.33 | 94.38 | -1.45 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-23 | 84.70 | 92.11 | -1.30 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-22 | 83.42 | 91.22 | -1.48 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-21 | 82.09 | 89.46 | -1.39 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-17 | 81.39 | 89.00 | -1.51 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-16 | 79.88 | 87.45 | -1.55 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-15 | 80.97 | 87.61 | -1.19 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-14 | 81.04 | 87.22 | -1.04 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-11 | 79.22 | 87.00 | -1.67 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-10 | 76.14 | 83.95 | -1.81 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-09 | 77.64 | 85.08 | -1.62 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-08 | 70.41 | 80.05 | -2.78 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-07 | 74.09 | 83.48 | -2.52 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-04 | 73.65 | 83.64 | -2.80 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-03 | 81.37 | 89.40 | -1.78 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-02 | 83.82 | 91.65 | -1.64 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-04-01 | 85.40 | 92.15 | -1.24 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-31 | 84.98 | 91.92 | -1.32 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-28 | 85.64 | 93.38 | -1.57 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-27 | 86.89 | 95.38 | -1.79 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-26 | 87.22 | 96.19 | -1.94 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-25 | 86.92 | 96.10 | -2.03 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-24 | 86.31 | 95.12 | -1.95 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-21 | 86.05 | 94.84 | -1.97 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-20 | 86.33 | 96.27 | -2.35 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-19 | 87.64 | 97.71 | -2.37 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-18 | 88.48 | 98.13 | -2.24 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-17 | 88.53 | 97.11 | -1.92 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-14 | 86.57 | 96.45 | -2.42 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-13 | 85.17 | 93.64 | -2.03 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-12 | 84.66 | 92.99 | -2.02 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-11 | 87.15 | 94.63 | -1.67 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-10 | 86.85 | 95.18 | -1.97 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-07 | 87.82 | 95.33 | -1.70 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-06 | 88.74 | 97.83 | -2.19 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-05 | 88.78 | 97.54 | -2.11 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-04 | 86.17 | 95.15 | -2.30 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-03-03 | 85.50 | 93.41 | -1.98 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-28 | 84.87 | 92.66 | -1.98 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-27 | 86.41 | 92.89 | -1.51 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-26 | 87.92 | 94.22 | -1.43 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-25 | 88.76 | 95.03 | -1.41 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-24 | 89.44 | 95.99 | -1.50 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-21 | 90.06 | 97.20 | -1.70 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-20 | 91.23 | 98.36 | -1.68 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-19 | 89.43 | 96.02 | -1.56 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-18 | 90.93 | 98.19 | -1.76 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-14 | 90.25 | 96.94 | -1.61 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-13 | 90.74 | 96.83 | -1.41 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-12 | 88.69 | 94.92 | -1.52 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-11 | 87.89 | 94.32 | -1.62 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-10 | 88.97 | 95.24 | -1.55 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-07 | 88.15 | 94.78 | -1.71 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-06 | 88.74 | 95.15 | -1.64 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-05 | 87.62 | 93.90 | -1.63 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-04 | 87.24 | 93.64 | -1.70 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-02-03 | 85.42 | 91.57 | -1.68 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-31 | 86.05 | 92.43 | -1.76 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-30 | 87.10 | 93.19 | -1.65 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-29 | 85.42 | 91.37 | -1.66 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-28 | 85.28 | 91.65 | -1.84 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-27 | 87.36 | 94.81 | -2.19 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-24 | 87.31 | 95.00 | -2.31 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-23 | 86.61 | 94.19 | -2.32 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-22 | 85.91 | 93.51 | -2.39 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-21 | 87.75 | 94.45 | -2.03 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-17 | 87.69 | 93.48 | -1.71 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-16 | 86.76 | 91.48 | -1.33 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-15 | 87.20 | 92.50 | -1.56 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-14 | 86.87 | 92.38 | -1.66 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-13 | 86.31 | 91.06 | -1.39 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-10 | 84.98 | 90.02 | -1.54 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-08 | 85.29 | 89.70 | -1.30 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-07 | 84.35 | 89.03 | -1.44 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-06 | 84.89 | 89.32 | -1.33 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-03 | 85.45 | 89.66 | -1.24 | RIO ahead |
| 2025-01-02 | 86.15 | 89.92 | -1.07 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-31 | 85.49 | 89.98 | -1.36 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-30 | 85.40 | 89.64 | -1.28 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-27 | 86.15 | 90.28 | -1.23 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-26 | 86.40 | 90.65 | -1.28 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-24 | 86.52 | 90.58 | -1.21 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-23 | 86.50 | 90.62 | -1.24 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-20 | 86.13 | 89.72 | -1.06 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-19 | 85.68 | 89.86 | -1.29 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-18 | 86.48 | 90.79 | -1.33 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-17 | 89.29 | 94.03 | -1.45 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-16 | 89.48 | 93.73 | -1.28 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-13 | 90.46 | 95.18 | -1.44 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-12 | 91.82 | 97.08 | -1.61 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-11 | 93.77 | 99.42 | -1.72 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-10 | 93.49 | 99.17 | -1.76 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-09 | 94.10 | 99.28 | -1.59 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-06 | 89.99 | 95.03 | -1.64 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-05 | 91.37 | 97.18 | -1.90 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-04 | 92.37 | 96.99 | -1.48 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-03 | 93.00 | 97.17 | -1.33 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-12-02 | 92.52 | 96.80 | -1.38 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-29 | 92.17 | 96.14 | -1.29 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-27 | 90.69 | 95.35 | -1.58 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-26 | 89.62 | 94.91 | -1.84 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-25 | 91.84 | 96.36 | -1.54 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-22 | 91.67 | 95.39 | -1.27 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-21 | 91.07 | 95.73 | -1.63 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-20 | 91.51 | 95.46 | -1.38 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-19 | 92.23 | 95.52 | -1.14 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-18 | 91.89 | 95.04 | -1.10 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-15 | 90.76 | 93.30 | -0.89 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-14 | 91.12 | 92.46 | -0.44 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-13 | 91.60 | 92.75 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-12 | 92.09 | 93.64 | -0.52 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-11 | 93.71 | 95.78 | -0.71 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-08 | 96.62 | 98.58 | -0.65 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-07 | 101.10 | 103.23 | -0.68 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-06 | 97.93 | 99.95 | -0.67 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-11-05 | 99.23 | 100.21 | -0.31 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-04 | 98.25 | 99.46 | -0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-11-01 | 97.93 | 99.95 | -0.69 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-10-31 | 97.09 | 99.28 | -0.76 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-10-30 | 98.77 | 100.83 | -0.70 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-10-29 | 100.04 | 101.87 | -0.62 | RIO ahead |
| 2024-10-28 | 100.00 | 101.25 | -0.43 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-25 | 98.81 | 99.88 | -0.38 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-24 | 98.32 | 98.85 | -0.20 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-23 | 97.57 | 98.67 | -0.40 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-22 | 99.16 | 100.18 | -0.37 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-21 | 98.60 | 99.37 | -0.30 | near the usual relationship |
| 2024-10-18 | 100.00 | 100.00 | -0.03 | near the usual relationship |
One-day company-specific moves (4+ standard deviations, which block ideas for 10 sessions): Apr 4, 2025 (BHP -9.5%, RIO -6.4%); Apr 9, 2025 (BHP +10.3%, RIO +6.3%); Sep 5, 2025 (BHP -2.1%, RIO +2.4%).
Paired trades
The shared paper book and the replay, kept apart
Forward paper record
No paper position on this pair yet.
Historical simulation (a diagnostic, same rules)
3 simulated trades to Oct 20, 2026: +1.64% per trade on average after costs, 2 won.
| Legs | Entered | Exited | Why | Days | Before costs | Costs + borrow | After costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long BHP · Short RIO | Sep 20, 2021 | Oct 29, 2021 | converged | 39 | $550.02 | -$49.66 | $500.37 (+5.00%) |
| Long RIO · Short BHP | Mar 5, 2021 | Apr 20, 2021 | converged | 46 | $407.61 | -$50.24 | $357.38 (+3.57%) |
| Long RIO · Short BHP | Jun 29, 2018 | Jul 31, 2018 | divergence stop | 32 | -$315.73 | -$48.83 | -$364.56 (-3.65%) |
Per $10,000 a leg. A replay on today's companies cannot prove an edge.
The companies
BHP and RIO at a glance
BHP BHP Group Limited
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 811809
- Industry
- Coal Mining · SIC 1000 Metal Mining
- Market value
- $211.6B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
RIO Rio Tinto Plc
- Listing
- NYSE · SEC CIK 863064
- Industry
- Metal Mining · SIC 1000 Metal Mining
- Market value
- $112.4B
- Price history
- 2,521 daily closes, Oct 12, 2016 to Oct 22, 2026
Daily prices: Nasdaq.com. Filings and industry codes: SEC EDGAR. Earnings dates: Nasdaq earnings calendar.
Related
All pairs →Other rivals of BHP and RIO
| Pair | Status | Ahead now | Industry |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIO / FCX | Watchlist | FCX by 1.87 sd | Metal Mining |
| SCCO / RIO | Watchlist | SCCO by 1.67 sd | Metal Mining |
| BHP / SCCO | Watchlist | neither | SIC 1000 Metal Mining |
Follow the research behind the paper book
Boostio is a research-first platform in private beta: crypto candidates, daily market stories, public paper trading and now rival stocks. Exploring these pages stays free and open.
Explore the private betaPaper only: hypothetical paired positions with modelled costs. No broker, no orders, no real money. A historical simulation is a diagnostic, not proof of an edge. Not investment advice.
